Typhoon Nepartak (No. 17) will head straight for Tainan.
With such immense power, it will inevitably cause TSMC to shut down!
TSMC’s daily value for Fab 18 is $200 million; a 7-day stoppage equals $1.4 billion, and Q3 revenue evaporates by 3%.
But by no means short TSMC.
In the 2011 Thai floods, the hard-disk plant was inundated. Seagate dropped 30% first, then doubled—monopolies plus supply shocks = the weighting of pricing power is estimated.
If TSMC shuts down for one day, the global AI chip supply will be delayed by about a week. Apple/NVDA/AMD are all queuing up for it.
Trade: buy the dip at $420–$440, stop loss at $400.
Target: $470→$520 (Citigroup ADR conversion).
Use NVDA puts to hedge the downside.
#TSMCUSDT #NVDA #trading $TSM