镰刀判官
969 Posts
镰刀判官
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Block User
地图元帅 键盘政治家 历史发明家 赛博诸葛亮
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
2.2 Years
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2.5K Followers
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Videos
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Partly True
Article
Tesla × SpaceX Merger Playbook | After the Announcement: When to Pull the Trigger and How to Maximize ProfitsOnce the announcement came through, Tesla was no longer Tesla.
It became a ticket to SpaceX, with its price determined by the exchange ratio.
Theoretical TSLA price = N × SPCX price.
N is the exchange ratio: 1 Tesla share converts into N SpaceX shares.
Before the announcement, it was just a calculation exercise—at current prices, parity meant N ≈ 2.5;
Including a 10%–15% acquisition premium, N would be between 2.7 and 2.9.
The moment the announcement was made, it was locked in.
From that day on, pricing power over Tesla passed into SpaceX’s hands.
In other words: the TSLA share you hold is now a voucher for “N shares of SpaceX.” Its price will no longer depend on cars, but on rockets.
Tesla × SpaceX Merger Playbook | After the Announcement: When to Pull the Trigger and How to Maximize Profits
Once the announcement came through, Tesla was no longer Tesla.
It became a ticket to SpaceX, with its price determined by the exchange ratio.
Theoretical TSLA price = N × SPCX price.
N is the exchange ratio: 1 Tesla share converts into N SpaceX shares.
Before the announcement, it was just a calculation exercise—at current prices, parity meant N ≈ 2.5;
Including a 10%–15% acquisition premium, N would be between 2.7 and 2.9.
The moment the announcement was made, it was locked in.
From that day on, pricing power over Tesla passed into SpaceX’s hands.
In other words: the TSLA share you hold is now a voucher for “N shares of SpaceX.” Its price will no longer depend on cars, but on rockets.
It became a ticket to SpaceX, with its price determined by the exchange ratio.
Theoretical TSLA price = N × SPCX price.
N is the exchange ratio: 1 Tesla share converts into N SpaceX shares.
Before the announcement, it was just a calculation exercise—at current prices, parity meant N ≈ 2.5;
Including a 10%–15% acquisition premium, N would be between 2.7 and 2.9.
The moment the announcement was made, it was locked in.
From that day on, pricing power over Tesla passed into SpaceX’s hands.
In other words: the TSLA share you hold is now a voucher for “N shares of SpaceX.” Its price will no longer depend on cars, but on rockets.
1.1k
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Verified
As a trader, you can’t just watch the spectacle—you have to think!In my view, this wasn’t a product launch.
It was a roadshow—held to pitch a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
There’s an old idea in economics: Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, developed the theory of signaling. In markets with information asymmetry, a credible signal has to be costly enough that others can’t afford to imitate it.
Saying “Our technology is ahead of everyone else” is just talk. Anyone can say that.
When a car actually does a full flip in midair, the whole world has to look up and say, “Damn, that’s awesome.”
What made the Roadster fly was the cold gas thrusters SpaceX uses on spacecraft.
As a trader, you can’t just watch the spectacle—you have to think!
In my view, this wasn’t a product launch.
It was a roadshow—held to pitch a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
There’s an old idea in economics: Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, developed the theory of signaling. In markets with information asymmetry, a credible signal has to be costly enough that others can’t afford to imitate it.
Saying “Our technology is ahead of everyone else” is just talk. Anyone can say that.
When a car actually does a full flip in midair, the whole world has to look up and say, “Damn, that’s awesome.”
What made the Roadster fly was the cold gas thrusters SpaceX uses on spacecraft.
It was a roadshow—held to pitch a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
There’s an old idea in economics: Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate, developed the theory of signaling. In markets with information asymmetry, a credible signal has to be costly enough that others can’t afford to imitate it.
Saying “Our technology is ahead of everyone else” is just talk. Anyone can say that.
When a car actually does a full flip in midair, the whole world has to look up and say, “Damn, that’s awesome.”
What made the Roadster fly was the cold gas thrusters SpaceX uses on spacecraft.
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Nowadays, a certain platform’s market-making bot is very intelligent thanks to AI:
1. When a project team tries to pump the price, the bot detects it, tries to pull its sell orders, and also follows up with buys.
2. When a project team intends to sell, these buy orders front-run them, sometimes even shorting before the project team does.
This is why coins with sudden price spikes and drops see such intense battles on the 5-minute timeframe.
$牛来
{future}(牛来USDT)
#暴涨
Nowadays, a certain platform’s market-making bot is very intelligent thanks to AI:
1. When a project team tries to pump the price, the bot detects it, tries to pull its sell orders, and also follows up with buys.
2. When a project team intends to sell, these buy orders front-run them, sometimes even shorting before the project team does.
This is why coins with sudden price spikes and drops see such intense battles on the 5-minute timeframe.
$牛来
#暴涨
1. When a project team tries to pump the price, the bot detects it, tries to pull its sell orders, and also follows up with buys.
2. When a project team intends to sell, these buy orders front-run them, sometimes even shorting before the project team does.
This is why coins with sudden price spikes and drops see such intense battles on the 5-minute timeframe.
$牛来
#暴涨
镰刀判官
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These coins are all controlled by the same market maker.
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
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Saw a very interesting chart and wanted to share it with everyone
Long-term holders are distributing. The bottom of this pullback will only gradually emerge once red turns to green. With URDP CBD key levels at 76k, 74k, and 64–65k, whether we get there is up to fate.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
Saw a very interesting chart and wanted to share it with everyone
Long-term holders are distributing. The bottom of this pullback will only gradually emerge once red turns to green. With URDP CBD key levels at 76k, 74k, and 64–65k, whether we get there is up to fate.
$BTC
#BTC
Long-term holders are distributing. The bottom of this pullback will only gradually emerge once red turns to green. With URDP CBD key levels at 76k, 74k, and 64–65k, whether we get there is up to fate.
$BTC
#BTC
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If ETH liquidations are far greater than BTC liquidations,
that indicates intense speculative sentiment in the market,
so leverage still needs to be flushed out repeatedly.
The current rebound is a B-wave rally in the middle of a bear market.
The bear market has only progressed a little over halfway,
and the coming C-wave won't be any smaller than the drop from 120,000 to 60,000.
The B-wave consolidated sideways for more than eight months, building up plenty of strength.
When the decline comes, it will be very powerful and fierce.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
If ETH liquidations are far greater than BTC liquidations,
that indicates intense speculative sentiment in the market,
so leverage still needs to be flushed out repeatedly.
The current rebound is a B-wave rally in the middle of a bear market.
The bear market has only progressed a little over halfway,
and the coming C-wave won't be any smaller than the drop from 120,000 to 60,000.
The B-wave consolidated sideways for more than eight months, building up plenty of strength.
When the decline comes, it will be very powerful and fierce.
$BTC
#BTC
that indicates intense speculative sentiment in the market,
so leverage still needs to be flushed out repeatedly.
The current rebound is a B-wave rally in the middle of a bear market.
The bear market has only progressed a little over halfway,
and the coming C-wave won't be any smaller than the drop from 120,000 to 60,000.
The B-wave consolidated sideways for more than eight months, building up plenty of strength.
When the decline comes, it will be very powerful and fierce.
$BTC
#BTC
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Article
U.S. Treasuries Are Looking for a Guarantor.You read that right.
The anchor for pricing global assets rests on four words: “needs no collateral.” The U.S. government’s credit is the collateral.
Now the Treasury has brought in someone to figure out how to gild its bonds.
On October 9, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that economist Judy Shelton would be brought on as an adviser.
In 2019, she was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board, but both parties joined forces to block her. She believes in the gold standard and questions whether the Fed should even exist.
The front door was closed, so she got in through the side door under a different title. Advisers don’t need Senate confirmation.
U.S. Treasuries Are Looking for a Guarantor.
You read that right.
The anchor for pricing global assets rests on four words: “needs no collateral.” The U.S. government’s credit is the collateral.
Now the Treasury has brought in someone to figure out how to gild its bonds.
On October 9, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that economist Judy Shelton would be brought on as an adviser.
In 2019, she was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board, but both parties joined forces to block her. She believes in the gold standard and questions whether the Fed should even exist.
The front door was closed, so she got in through the side door under a different title. Advisers don’t need Senate confirmation.
The anchor for pricing global assets rests on four words: “needs no collateral.” The U.S. government’s credit is the collateral.
Now the Treasury has brought in someone to figure out how to gild its bonds.
On October 9, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that economist Judy Shelton would be brought on as an adviser.
In 2019, she was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board, but both parties joined forces to block her. She believes in the gold standard and questions whether the Fed should even exist.
The front door was closed, so she got in through the side door under a different title. Advisers don’t need Senate confirmation.
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Market makers have been pulling liquidity from BTC!
Whenever interest rates rise, prices fall!
And once a rate-hiking cycle begins, it can't just be stopped!
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
Market makers have been pulling liquidity from BTC!
Whenever interest rates rise, prices fall!
And once a rate-hiking cycle begins, it can't just be stopped!
$BTC
#BTC
Whenever interest rates rise, prices fall!
And once a rate-hiking cycle begins, it can't just be stopped!
$BTC
#BTC
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镰刀判官
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These coins are all controlled by the same market maker.
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
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The other side of wild coins:
High-open-interest assets on HL are better suited to swing trading
$HYPE
{future}(HYPEUSDT)
The other side of wild coins:
High-open-interest assets on HL are better suited to swing trading
$HYPE
High-open-interest assets on HL are better suited to swing trading
$HYPE
镰刀判官
·
--
These coins are all controlled by the same market maker.
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
594
·
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These coins are all controlled by the same market maker.
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
These coins are all controlled by the same market maker.
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
Just an hour ago, they pumped them and caused a sharp wick.
This shows that something is wrong with the market-making system they all share!
You can steer clear of these coins now!
$AIN $牛来 $龙虾
Symbol list:
LIGHTUSDT, AINUSDT, BULLAUSDT, BLUAIUSDT, GUAUSDT, SIRENUSDT, STARUSDT, BTWUSDT, XNYUSDT, 我踏马来了USDT, 牛来USDT, KOMAUSDT, PTBUSDT, ARIAUSDT, 哈基米USDT, AIOTUSDT, AIAUSDT, HANAUSDT, BROCCOLIF3BUSDT, FIGHTUSDT, 龙虾USDT, EVAAUSDT, POWERUSDT, LYNUSDT, JELLYJELLYUSDT, PIPPINUSDT, TACUSDT, TAKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, 4USDT, TRADOORUSDT, UAIUSDT, QUSDT, PIEVERSEUSDT, PLAYUSDT, USUSDT
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Partly True
In every financial crisis or stock market crash,
Do Korean stocks fall months—even a year—ahead of US stocks?
A look back at the timing gap between several major crashes in the history of the US and Korean stock markets.
Of the six events reviewed, Korean and US stocks fell at the same time only once.
In two cases, Korea's market fell 1–2 months earlier; in two others, it fell 11–12 months earlier.
How far in advance will the market start falling this time?
$SKHY
{future}(SKHYUSDT)
#韩国
In every financial crisis or stock market crash,
Do Korean stocks fall months—even a year—ahead of US stocks?
A look back at the timing gap between several major crashes in the history of the US and Korean stock markets.
Of the six events reviewed, Korean and US stocks fell at the same time only once.
In two cases, Korea's market fell 1–2 months earlier; in two others, it fell 11–12 months earlier.
How far in advance will the market start falling this time?
$SKHY
#韩国
Do Korean stocks fall months—even a year—ahead of US stocks?
A look back at the timing gap between several major crashes in the history of the US and Korean stock markets.
Of the six events reviewed, Korean and US stocks fell at the same time only once.
In two cases, Korea's market fell 1–2 months earlier; in two others, it fell 11–12 months earlier.
How far in advance will the market start falling this time?
$SKHY
#韩国
4
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BTC and ETH price fluctuations are currently driven by futures.
Rising OI is the main driver of declines.
Falling OI is the main driver of rebounds.
Exchange balances are currently rising steadily, and bullish sentiment is not firm.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
BTC and ETH price fluctuations are currently driven by futures.
Rising OI is the main driver of declines.
Falling OI is the main driver of rebounds.
Exchange balances are currently rising steadily, and bullish sentiment is not firm.
$BTC
#BTC
Rising OI is the main driver of declines.
Falling OI is the main driver of rebounds.
Exchange balances are currently rising steadily, and bullish sentiment is not firm.
$BTC
#BTC
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BTC market makers pulled a lot of liquidity last night,
October 8 > September 24 > September 4,
October 7 was very likely the start of the main downtrend.
After fattening the pigs for half a year, it’s almost New Year—time to slaughter a batch.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
BTC market makers pulled a lot of liquidity last night,
October 8 > September 24 > September 4,
October 7 was very likely the start of the main downtrend.
After fattening the pigs for half a year, it’s almost New Year—time to slaughter a batch.
$BTC
#BTC
October 8 > September 24 > September 4,
October 7 was very likely the start of the main downtrend.
After fattening the pigs for half a year, it’s almost New Year—time to slaughter a batch.
$BTC
#BTC
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The views in this post are highly subjective. If you’re looking for an objective analysis, go elsewhere.
A review of the major players’ trading activity in Bitcoin over the past 180 days:
Back on June 6, I said I couldn’t figure out why the major players hadn’t sold everything and had kept half. Now I understand.
The B-wave rebound in this bear market had been mapped out six months in advance. Why did it move this way? Because the major players’ charting follows U.S. stocks. Since U.S. stocks hadn’t fallen, BTC couldn’t very well fall on its own.
The B-wave in this bear market formed a very complex 3-3-5 corrective pattern. The three-month rebound (July, August, September) more or less let them sell all the positions they’d accumulated over the past six months. The next few months should be quite a show.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC走势分析
The views in this post are highly subjective. If you’re looking for an objective analysis, go elsewhere.
A review of the major players’ trading activity in Bitcoin over the past 180 days:
Back on June 6, I said I couldn’t figure out why the major players hadn’t sold everything and had kept half. Now I understand.
The B-wave rebound in this bear market had been mapped out six months in advance. Why did it move this way? Because the major players’ charting follows U.S. stocks. Since U.S. stocks hadn’t fallen, BTC couldn’t very well fall on its own.
The B-wave in this bear market formed a very complex 3-3-5 corrective pattern. The three-month rebound (July, August, September) more or less let them sell all the positions they’d accumulated over the past six months. The next few months should be quite a show.
$BTC
#BTC走势分析
A review of the major players’ trading activity in Bitcoin over the past 180 days:
Back on June 6, I said I couldn’t figure out why the major players hadn’t sold everything and had kept half. Now I understand.
The B-wave rebound in this bear market had been mapped out six months in advance. Why did it move this way? Because the major players’ charting follows U.S. stocks. Since U.S. stocks hadn’t fallen, BTC couldn’t very well fall on its own.
The B-wave in this bear market formed a very complex 3-3-5 corrective pattern. The three-month rebound (July, August, September) more or less let them sell all the positions they’d accumulated over the past six months. The next few months should be quite a show.
$BTC
#BTC走势分析
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After August 28, the main forces have all been kept in a steady-speed shipping state.
Even if they keep shipping, the main forces still have a way to pull while shipping at the same time, and also to reinforce retail investors’ belief, because retail investors only trust the candlestick chart (K-line) and don’t believe anything else.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
After August 28, the main forces have all been kept in a steady-speed shipping state.
Even if they keep shipping, the main forces still have a way to pull while shipping at the same time, and also to reinforce retail investors’ belief, because retail investors only trust the candlestick chart (K-line) and don’t believe anything else.
$BTC
#BTC
Even if they keep shipping, the main forces still have a way to pull while shipping at the same time, and also to reinforce retail investors’ belief, because retail investors only trust the candlestick chart (K-line) and don’t believe anything else.
$BTC
#BTC
镰刀判官
·
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Over the past six months, the big players accumulated as much as 12 billion, but now only 1.1 billion is being sold.
Retail investors keep buying as prices rise. Every time, they’re the ones who solve the big players’ problem of being unable to offload their shares.
$BTC
#BTC
Retail investors keep buying as prices rise. Every time, they’re the ones who solve the big players’ problem of being unable to offload their shares.
$BTC
#BTC
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Over the past six months, the big players accumulated as much as 12 billion, but now only 1.1 billion is being sold.
Retail investors keep buying as prices rise. Every time, they’re the ones who solve the big players’ problem of being unable to offload their shares.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
Over the past six months, the big players accumulated as much as 12 billion, but now only 1.1 billion is being sold.
Retail investors keep buying as prices rise. Every time, they’re the ones who solve the big players’ problem of being unable to offload their shares.
$BTC
#BTC
Retail investors keep buying as prices rise. Every time, they’re the ones who solve the big players’ problem of being unable to offload their shares.
$BTC
#BTC
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Boring! I want to see rivers of blood!
People keep sending me private messages saying they just want to laugh because this time is different.
Was that crisis different?
Is America really that powerful?
How powerful would America have to be to stop apples from falling out of trees?
The East India Company's influence was beyond even what America has today.
The City of the British Empire, on which the sun never set, really could control the whole world in a literal, physical sense.
Ten thousand pounds could buy an entire state.
A company's mercenary army numbered over ten million.
The number of peoples massacred by a single overseas corps was even comparable to the toll of a mini ice age.
But so what?
When the numbers reach their limits, when the bubble grows too big to save,
what does it matter if the British Empire, on which the sun never set, is invincible in its age?
So here's the question: who can change the theorem that 1+1=2?
Does America's army have bases all over the world?
Can America drop nuclear bombs whenever it wants?
How many peoples has America wiped out? Has America managed to kill a billion people in a single year?
It hasn't. So why can't this giant East India Company go under?
I think economic crises are pretty good, and world wars are pretty good too.
They eliminate excess capacity and surplus productive forces, and directly stimulate the market. All pretty good. Everyone should accept it all.
We should accept financial crises, accept world wars, accept the deaths of generations, accept history's spiral upward.
What's there to be afraid of? What's coming will come. This world doesn't treat you unfairly when it comes to death just because someone is powerful or useless.
There's nothing wrong with it.
Some people are really hilarious. They're not afraid of a nuclear bomb landing on their heads, but they're scared to death of inflation multiplying several times over.
What's there to be afraid of?
When history reaches the point where billions of people have to be sacrificed, you just go and die.
You close your eyes and lie down on the ground. What the hell good does that do?
I'll say something unpleasant: dying of old age, starving to death, dying of disease, being killed by a nuclear bomb, being shot by a machine gun—there's no difference.
There are eight billion people on Earth. So what if half of them die?
$NVDA
{future}(NVDAUSDT)
#美股超话
Boring! I want to see rivers of blood!
People keep sending me private messages saying they just want to laugh because this time is different.
Was that crisis different?
Is America really that powerful?
How powerful would America have to be to stop apples from falling out of trees?
The East India Company's influence was beyond even what America has today.
The City of the British Empire, on which the sun never set, really could control the whole world in a literal, physical sense.
Ten thousand pounds could buy an entire state.
A company's mercenary army numbered over ten million.
The number of peoples massacred by a single overseas corps was even comparable to the toll of a mini ice age.
But so what?
When the numbers reach their limits, when the bubble grows too big to save,
what does it matter if the British Empire, on which the sun never set, is invincible in its age?
So here's the question: who can change the theorem that 1+1=2?
Does America's army have bases all over the world?
Can America drop nuclear bombs whenever it wants?
How many peoples has America wiped out? Has America managed to kill a billion people in a single year?
It hasn't. So why can't this giant East India Company go under?
I think economic crises are pretty good, and world wars are pretty good too.
They eliminate excess capacity and surplus productive forces, and directly stimulate the market. All pretty good. Everyone should accept it all.
We should accept financial crises, accept world wars, accept the deaths of generations, accept history's spiral upward.
What's there to be afraid of? What's coming will come. This world doesn't treat you unfairly when it comes to death just because someone is powerful or useless.
There's nothing wrong with it.
Some people are really hilarious. They're not afraid of a nuclear bomb landing on their heads, but they're scared to death of inflation multiplying several times over.
What's there to be afraid of?
When history reaches the point where billions of people have to be sacrificed, you just go and die.
You close your eyes and lie down on the ground. What the hell good does that do?
I'll say something unpleasant: dying of old age, starving to death, dying of disease, being killed by a nuclear bomb, being shot by a machine gun—there's no difference.
There are eight billion people on Earth. So what if half of them die?
$NVDA
#美股超话
People keep sending me private messages saying they just want to laugh because this time is different.
Was that crisis different?
Is America really that powerful?
How powerful would America have to be to stop apples from falling out of trees?
The East India Company's influence was beyond even what America has today.
The City of the British Empire, on which the sun never set, really could control the whole world in a literal, physical sense.
Ten thousand pounds could buy an entire state.
A company's mercenary army numbered over ten million.
The number of peoples massacred by a single overseas corps was even comparable to the toll of a mini ice age.
But so what?
When the numbers reach their limits, when the bubble grows too big to save,
what does it matter if the British Empire, on which the sun never set, is invincible in its age?
So here's the question: who can change the theorem that 1+1=2?
Does America's army have bases all over the world?
Can America drop nuclear bombs whenever it wants?
How many peoples has America wiped out? Has America managed to kill a billion people in a single year?
It hasn't. So why can't this giant East India Company go under?
I think economic crises are pretty good, and world wars are pretty good too.
They eliminate excess capacity and surplus productive forces, and directly stimulate the market. All pretty good. Everyone should accept it all.
We should accept financial crises, accept world wars, accept the deaths of generations, accept history's spiral upward.
What's there to be afraid of? What's coming will come. This world doesn't treat you unfairly when it comes to death just because someone is powerful or useless.
There's nothing wrong with it.
Some people are really hilarious. They're not afraid of a nuclear bomb landing on their heads, but they're scared to death of inflation multiplying several times over.
What's there to be afraid of?
When history reaches the point where billions of people have to be sacrificed, you just go and die.
You close your eyes and lie down on the ground. What the hell good does that do?
I'll say something unpleasant: dying of old age, starving to death, dying of disease, being killed by a nuclear bomb, being shot by a machine gun—there's no difference.
There are eight billion people on Earth. So what if half of them die?
$NVDA
#美股超话
镰刀判官
·
--
How Wall Street is going to milk the world this time
Today let's talk about a slightly conspiratorial theory, but one that makes more and more sense the more you think about it.
How the United States will manage its debt this round—and how it will extract wealth—it's actually not that well hidden anymore:
First, use AI bubbles to pull the world's money into U.S. stock markets. Then erase another $30–$40 trillion in market value, forcing capital to run into U.S. Treasuries. After that, the Federal Reserve cuts rates and resumes balance-sheet expansion. Then, using low interest rates, inflation, and financial repression, slowly dilute the debt away.
In plain terms, it's just three things:
Anthropic is responsible for inflating the bubble. A U.S. stock market crash is responsible for turning the money around. The Federal Reserve is responsible for cleaning up the mess.
How the United States will manage its debt this round—and how it will extract wealth—it's actually not that well hidden anymore:
First, use AI bubbles to pull the world's money into U.S. stock markets. Then erase another $30–$40 trillion in market value, forcing capital to run into U.S. Treasuries. After that, the Federal Reserve cuts rates and resumes balance-sheet expansion. Then, using low interest rates, inflation, and financial repression, slowly dilute the debt away.
In plain terms, it's just three things:
Anthropic is responsible for inflating the bubble. A U.S. stock market crash is responsible for turning the money around. The Federal Reserve is responsible for cleaning up the mess.
1
1.5k
·
--
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Everything below is just my subjective opinion. For an objective analysis, go outside and turn right.
The period from late 2025 to the first half of 2027 will be a very unusual bear market.
Before the next bull market arrives, more than 95% of retail investors will have been wiped out.
You can look at the bear market from late 2013 to 2015 for reference.
BTC was born in 2008. There’s a major cycle every 10 years, and we’re currently in the second one.
It’s hard to say whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle has broken. Judging by the timeline, the fourth quarter may not bring a true bottom.
Multiple factors have led the major players steering BTC to follow the U.S. stock market and keep driving repeated volatility this time. The long-awaited bottoming process keeps getting postponed.
So this bear market will be different from 2022’s—it will be delayed.
A delay means there’s been a long period of volatile consolidation and buildup midway through the bear market.
The longer the base, the higher the rise—but that rise could be followed by a rebound and then a sharp crash.
That means the C-wave decline could be far more dramatic than you might imagine.
If you draw a Fibonacci retracement from the end of 2018,
this bear market will definitely see BTC prices starting with 3 and 4.
2008 → 2018, 2018 → 2028,
Why not BTC prices starting with 5?
No particular reason—BTC starting with 5 doesn’t deserve to form a bottom in a bear market.
#BTC
$BTC
Everything below is just my subjective opinion. For an objective analysis, go outside and turn right.
The period from late 2025 to the first half of 2027 will be a very unusual bear market.
Before the next bull market arrives, more than 95% of retail investors will have been wiped out.
You can look at the bear market from late 2013 to 2015 for reference.
BTC was born in 2008. There’s a major cycle every 10 years, and we’re currently in the second one.
It’s hard to say whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle has broken. Judging by the timeline, the fourth quarter may not bring a true bottom.
Multiple factors have led the major players steering BTC to follow the U.S. stock market and keep driving repeated volatility this time. The long-awaited bottoming process keeps getting postponed.
So this bear market will be different from 2022’s—it will be delayed.
A delay means there’s been a long period of volatile consolidation and buildup midway through the bear market.
The longer the base, the higher the rise—but that rise could be followed by a rebound and then a sharp crash.
That means the C-wave decline could be far more dramatic than you might imagine.
If you draw a Fibonacci retracement from the end of 2018,
this bear market will definitely see BTC prices starting with 3 and 4.
2008 → 2018, 2018 → 2028,
Why not BTC prices starting with 5?
No particular reason—BTC starting with 5 doesn’t deserve to form a bottom in a bear market.
#BTC
Everything below is just my subjective opinion. For an objective analysis, go outside and turn right.
The period from late 2025 to the first half of 2027 will be a very unusual bear market.
Before the next bull market arrives, more than 95% of retail investors will have been wiped out.
You can look at the bear market from late 2013 to 2015 for reference.
BTC was born in 2008. There’s a major cycle every 10 years, and we’re currently in the second one.
It’s hard to say whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle has broken. Judging by the timeline, the fourth quarter may not bring a true bottom.
Multiple factors have led the major players steering BTC to follow the U.S. stock market and keep driving repeated volatility this time. The long-awaited bottoming process keeps getting postponed.
So this bear market will be different from 2022’s—it will be delayed.
A delay means there’s been a long period of volatile consolidation and buildup midway through the bear market.
The longer the base, the higher the rise—but that rise could be followed by a rebound and then a sharp crash.
That means the C-wave decline could be far more dramatic than you might imagine.
If you draw a Fibonacci retracement from the end of 2018,
this bear market will definitely see BTC prices starting with 3 and 4.
2008 → 2018, 2018 → 2028,
Why not BTC prices starting with 5?
No particular reason—BTC starting with 5 doesn’t deserve to form a bottom in a bear market.
#BTC
镰刀判官
·
--
I just said yesterday that the C-wave decline has only just begun, so there’s no need to rush.
From October 8, 2025, to February 5, the impulsive A wave (5 subwaves) was completed exactly.
From October 7, 2026, to June–July next year, the impulsive C wave (5 subwaves) will unfold.
$BTC
#BTC
From October 8, 2025, to February 5, the impulsive A wave (5 subwaves) was completed exactly.
From October 7, 2026, to June–July next year, the impulsive C wave (5 subwaves) will unfold.
$BTC
#BTC
2
3
3k
·
--
I just said yesterday that the C-wave decline has only just begun, so there’s no need to rush.
From October 8, 2025, to February 5, the impulsive A wave (5 subwaves) was completed exactly.
From October 7, 2026, to June–July next year, the impulsive C wave (5 subwaves) will unfold.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC
I just said yesterday that the C-wave decline has only just begun, so there’s no need to rush.
From October 8, 2025, to February 5, the impulsive A wave (5 subwaves) was completed exactly.
From October 7, 2026, to June–July next year, the impulsive C wave (5 subwaves) will unfold.
$BTC
#BTC
From October 8, 2025, to February 5, the impulsive A wave (5 subwaves) was completed exactly.
From October 7, 2026, to June–July next year, the impulsive C wave (5 subwaves) will unfold.
$BTC
#BTC
镰刀判官
·
--
Just wait patiently for Wave C to play out; Wave C still has 5 subwaves.
This rally, which began on February 6, has lasted for over 7 months and built up a lot of energy. Once the decline begins (October 8), the losses that follow will be very large. Another 50% drop would be normal.
$BTC
#BTC
This rally, which began on February 6, has lasted for over 7 months and built up a lot of energy. Once the decline begins (October 8), the losses that follow will be very large. Another 50% drop would be normal.
$BTC
#BTC
19
1
8
19.7k
·
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Article
The Calm Before the Storm: Real Money Is Tearing the Market Apart!
Keep a close eye on tonight’s 10-year Treasury auction!At 1 p.m. ET on October 7, the Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes. Bids are due by noon, with settlement on October 15.
The bond market isn’t just trading words right now—real money is going head-to-head between bulls and bears:
By CFTC/TFF measures, asset managers are piling into long-duration longs while holding very few shorts, leaving them with an extraordinarily large net-long position;
Leveraged funds are doing the opposite: few longs, a mountain of shorts, and an extraordinarily large net-short position.
Neither side is saying, “I think it’ll go down/up.” They’re saying, “I’m betting you’ll blow up first.”
Put this positioning into plain English:
Pension funds and insurers say, “We believe in duration,” while hedge funds say, “We believe in fiscal deficits and inflation.” Neither side thinks much of the other.
The Calm Before the Storm: Real Money Is Tearing the Market Apart! Keep a close eye on tonight’s 10-year Treasury auction!
At 1 p.m. ET on October 7, the Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes. Bids are due by noon, with settlement on October 15.
The bond market isn’t just trading words right now—real money is going head-to-head between bulls and bears:
By CFTC/TFF measures, asset managers are piling into long-duration longs while holding very few shorts, leaving them with an extraordinarily large net-long position;
Leveraged funds are doing the opposite: few longs, a mountain of shorts, and an extraordinarily large net-short position.
Neither side is saying, “I think it’ll go down/up.” They’re saying, “I’m betting you’ll blow up first.”
Put this positioning into plain English:
Pension funds and insurers say, “We believe in duration,” while hedge funds say, “We believe in fiscal deficits and inflation.” Neither side thinks much of the other.
The bond market isn’t just trading words right now—real money is going head-to-head between bulls and bears:
By CFTC/TFF measures, asset managers are piling into long-duration longs while holding very few shorts, leaving them with an extraordinarily large net-long position;
Leveraged funds are doing the opposite: few longs, a mountain of shorts, and an extraordinarily large net-short position.
Neither side is saying, “I think it’ll go down/up.” They’re saying, “I’m betting you’ll blow up first.”
Put this positioning into plain English:
Pension funds and insurers say, “We believe in duration,” while hedge funds say, “We believe in fiscal deficits and inflation.” Neither side thinks much of the other.
1.1k
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🚨 U.S. PPI Surges to 6.3% YoY: What It Means for Crypto & Markets
Wholesale inflation is heating up faster than expected. September’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data has brought fresh attention to macroeconomic pressures:
The Numbers: U.S. PPI rose 6.3% year-over-year (beating market forecasts around 5.3%), with a 1.3% jump month-over-month—the largest monthly gain in quite some time.
The Drivers: Surging energy costs (with final-demand energy prices up significantly) continue to add heavy cost pressures down the supply chain.
📉 What It Means for Crypto & Risk Assets
Sticky inflation often introduces short-term volatility and pressure on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders reassess borrowing costs and liquidity expectations. However, whether the market has already priced in these risks—or if we'll see further shakeouts before a clear direction emerges—remains the key question.
Game Plan:
Keep leverage low and avoid chasing high-risk FOMO.
Watch BTC support levels, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar for confirmation.
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