RBNZ holds rates in a rare 4–3 split; OCR remains at 2.75%
The RBNZ announced today that it would keep the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, but the Monetary Policy Committee split 4–3, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike to 3.0%—a rare degree of division. Officials said CPI remains around 3.7%, with core inflation excluding fuel at about 4.4%, indicating persistent price pressures. Bloomberg reported that the Australian and New Zealand dollars briefly fell nearly 2% against the US dollar. Westpac and other institutions had previously warned that this cycle could mean “higher for longer.”
【Viewpoint】
The majority voted to hold, while the minority wanted a hike—evidence that inflationary pressure in New Zealand remains and that the easing narrative has been disproved. Global central banks’ “rate-cut trade” is being challenged one by one; if the FOMC also takes a hawkish tone tonight, the dollar and Treasury yields could rise again, putting risk assets under pressure.
【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch: ① Whether the Fed’s press conference echoes the “higher for longer” message; ② Spillover from volatility in NZD/AUD and commodities; ③ If the dollar strengthens,
$BTC and
$ETH could retest key support levels in the short term. New Zealand’s policy decision alone has limited direct impact on crypto, but combined with the FOMC event, it could amplify macro volatility.
Do you think tonight’s FOMC meeting could also see similar “internal divisions”?
#宏观 #央行 #OCR #RBNZ #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH For reference only; this is not investment advice.