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New Fed Chair Just Took Office, Is the Market Heading for a Turbulent Phase?

Historically, the transition of the Federal Reserve chair often marks a tough period for the US stock market.

Data shows that in the first 3 months of a new Fed chair's term, the S&P 500 index typically sees a drop of around 12%. In some extreme cases, the market has even fallen more than 30%.

Now, Kevin Warsh has just officially taken the helm as Chair of the Federal Reserve about 3 days ago, and the market is starting to pay attention to whether this historical pattern will repeat itself.

If US stock volatility ramps up, the crypto market is likely to feel the effects as well. As of now, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are still closely correlated with riskier assets like tech stocks.

This means that in the coming months, the crypto market might trend more sideways and be packed with volatility while waiting for the new Fed policy direction to become crystal clear.

That doesn’t necessarily mean a major bearish trend is imminent, but the market is likely to be more sensitive to inflation data, interest rates, and comments from the Fed moving forward.

For now, such phases are usually better suited for traders focusing on risk management rather than aggressively chasing euphoria.

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#federalreserve #bitcoin #stocks #macro #menjaditrader

Buying Bitcoin at ATH Area First? Historically, It Always Ends Up Profitable 👀

Many traders are scared to buy Bitcoin when prices are near an all-time high. But interestingly, historically, buying BTC in the previous ATH areas has always resulted in long-term profits.

According to a post by based16z, the buying pressure in the current cycle is much stronger compared to previous ATHs.

Back then, the market was only supported by purchases of around US$1-2 million per day from certain big players. Now, the situation is totally different.

There's added buying pressure from spot Bitcoin ETFs, large whales like Purr, and other institutions that continue to accumulate every day. Even the ETFs themselves are said to be absorbing about US$7 million per day.

This means that the demand for Bitcoin right now is much stronger than in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the supply of BTC remains limited and is getting thinner in the market.

However, the market can still experience short-term corrections. Because in the ATH areas, volatility and profit-taking usually increase.

But looking at the historical data and the current flow of institutional funds, many analysts are starting to see the old ATH areas not as a "fear to buy" zone, but rather as a validation area for market strength.

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#bitcoin #btc #etf #crypto #menjaditrader

Polymarket Starts Setting Odds on Prabowo, Crypto Political Market Buzzing

The prediction market platform Polymarket has begun displaying speculation markets regarding the likelihood of Prabowo Subianto stepping down from the presidency of Indonesia within certain time frames.

From circulating data, the highest probability still indicates that the market believes this scenario is unlikely to happen in the near term. However, the emergence of such markets has stirred excitement as it showcases how crypto prediction markets are beginning to be used for global political speculation, including in Indonesia.

This phenomenon isn't entirely new in the crypto world. Traders often use Polymarket to place bets on political, economic, and geopolitical events, as it is considered to reflect sentiment faster than traditional polling.

Though the volume in this market is still relatively small, its emergence is still intriguing as it illustrates how blockchain and prediction markets are starting to penetrate domestic political realms.

It's important to note that a prediction market doesn't equate to facts or certainties about events. It is purely a reflection of speculation and user sentiment within the market.

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#polymarket #crypto #indonesia #bitcoin #menjaditrader $BTC

Bitcoin Struggles to Hold Above Key Bull Market Level, Is the Rally Still Vulnerable?

Bitcoin briefly climbed back to the $82K area and successfully reclaimed a crucial on-chain level around $78.3K. However, according to Glassnode data, BTC is still unable to hold strong above that zone.

This "True Market Mean" level is considered critical as it historically often marks the transition boundary between bear and bull markets. The issue is that a breakout alone isn't enough. Typically, the market needs to consolidate for weeks or even months before confirming a genuine bullish reversal.

Right now, the market still appears to be in a transitional zone. There are no strong signals that a bull market reversal has been truly confirmed.

Positioning data also indicates that the market remains quite fragile. Open interest is still high while funding has started to turn positive again, meaning leverage is coming back in even though the market structure isn't fully secure.

If BTC fails to maintain the $78.3K area, the potential for volatility and fake breakouts remains significant in the short term.

For now, the market is better described as being in a "testing confidence" phase rather than a full bull confirmation.

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#bitcoin #btc #glassnode #onchain #menjaditrader $BTC

Russia Ready to Launch Crypto Trading on Official Exchange, Are Institutions Starting to Enter?

The Moscow Exchange or MOEX is reportedly gearing up to start trading crypto assets after Russia's digital asset regulations are officially implemented in the coming weeks.

According to MOEX CEO Viktor Zhidkov, the testing phase is set to kick off early this summer, with full crypto trading expected to roll out by the end of this year. They are currently preparing the infrastructure to ensure that Russia's traditional financial system is ready to dive into the digital asset market.

Interestingly, this isn’t just any regular exchange. Since MOEX is one of the largest exchanges in Russia, this move could signal that traditional financial institutions are getting serious about entering the crypto industry.

Russia has previously been quite harsh on crypto. However, the policy direction seems to be shifting, especially amid geopolitical pressures and a global trend that is becoming more open to digital assets.

If a major exchange like MOEX truly opens up crypto trading, the market could see this as a fresh boost for institutional adoption beyond the dominance of the US.

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NFA, DYOR.

#bitcoin #russia #crypto #institutional #menjaditrader $BTC

Turkey Quietly Dumps Almost All US Treasuries, Is De-Dollarization Signal Getting Serious?

Reports indicate that Turkey has just offloaded nearly all their US Treasury holdings last March. This move has sparked chatter in the market about the increasingly aggressive trend of de-dollarization in several countries.

In theory, reducing reliance on the US dollar could be a positive narrative for alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold in the long run. As more countries seek alternatives to the dollar, the focus on hard assets, which are seen as more independent from traditional financial systems, also increases.

However, the market is aware that the situation might not be that straightforward. There's a possibility that Turkey's move is more of an emergency strategy to support the weakening Lira and maintain domestic economic stability.

This means it may not necessarily lead to a major bullish sentiment for crypto in the near term. But one thing’s clear: the global de-dollarization trend is becoming more frequent, and Bitcoin is gradually entering discussions as an alternative hedge asset.

If this trend continues to evolve, the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' could gain more traction in the eyes of the global market.

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#bitcoin #turkey #dedollarization #macro #menjaditrader $BTC

Michael Saylor Going Wild? Strategy Now Holding Almost 4% of the World's Bitcoin Supply

The strategy just announced plans to buy more Bitcoin, bringing their total holdings to 818,334 BTC. That's about 3.9% of the total global Bitcoin supply.

What has the market in awe is their aggressive accumulation despite reporting a loss per share in last quarter's Q1. This means Saylor is still super bullish and believes BTC will soar much higher in the long run.

But there's a side that's starting to make many traders cautious. The funding for buying BTC partly comes from a preferred stock scheme with dividends up to 11%. As long as Bitcoin keeps climbing, this strategy looks genius. But if the market suddenly corrects hard, the financial pressure could be quite heavy.

On one hand, Saylor's move shows incredible conviction in Bitcoin. On the other hand, the leverage and high dividend burden also ramp up the risks.

What do you think, is this a visionary strategy or too reckless?

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#bitcoin #michaelsaylor #btc #cryptonews #menjaditrader $BTC