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HASSETT SAYS CUTS COMING. MARKET SAYS NOT SO FAST.
White House's Hassett just doubled down on rate cuts this year once Warsh takes over. Sounds bullish — but the tape tells a different story.
The Reality:
CME FedWatch just slapped 94.1% odds on no rate cuts in June, 5.9% for a 25 bps cut and basically zero for anything bigger. By December, market pricing shows a 72.6% probability that the Fed does absolutely nothing this year — zero cuts — and a staggering 16% probability we actually see a hike.
Here's the contradiction loud and clear: Hassett is openly betting his credibility that Warsh will quickly deliver easier policy. Analysts point out that Hassett is viewed as the more dovish candidate, while Warsh has a track record as more hawkish — meaning high rates could persist longer under his leadership.
What This Means for Traders:
· Liquidity isn't coming back until Warsh actually proves he's willing to cut — talk is cheap.
· Markets are pricing Warsh as a hawk, not a dove. It's his actions after taking the chair that matter, not Hassett's optimism.
· Until the Senate confirms Warsh and the Fed signals a real pivot, rate-cut euphoria is just noise.
Bottom line: The market is pricing cuts as a long shot not the base case. Reports of easy money are greatly exaggerated. Watch the confirmation vote. Until then, trade the pricing floor, not the headline hype.
$BTC
#FED #ratecuts #Warsh #Hassett
#Liquidity
White House's Hassett just doubled down on rate cuts this year once Warsh takes over. Sounds bullish — but the tape tells a different story.
The Reality:
CME FedWatch just slapped 94.1% odds on no rate cuts in June, 5.9% for a 25 bps cut and basically zero for anything bigger. By December, market pricing shows a 72.6% probability that the Fed does absolutely nothing this year — zero cuts — and a staggering 16% probability we actually see a hike.
Here's the contradiction loud and clear: Hassett is openly betting his credibility that Warsh will quickly deliver easier policy. Analysts point out that Hassett is viewed as the more dovish candidate, while Warsh has a track record as more hawkish — meaning high rates could persist longer under his leadership.
What This Means for Traders:
· Liquidity isn't coming back until Warsh actually proves he's willing to cut — talk is cheap.
· Markets are pricing Warsh as a hawk, not a dove. It's his actions after taking the chair that matter, not Hassett's optimism.
· Until the Senate confirms Warsh and the Fed signals a real pivot, rate-cut euphoria is just noise.
Bottom line: The market is pricing cuts as a long shot not the base case. Reports of easy money are greatly exaggerated. Watch the confirmation vote. Until then, trade the pricing floor, not the headline hype.
$BTC
#FED #ratecuts #Warsh #Hassett
#Liquidity
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#Hassett #whitehouse
#Hassett #whitehouse
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