$BCH 4 hours RSI falls to 17.5. Extremely oversold. I’ve seen this position way too many times.
From 254.87 down to 214, a one-month pullback of 16%. Price is below all short-term moving averages—EMA9 (218), EMA21 (221), and EMA50 (223) are all forming resistance. The daily EMA9/21 cross near 224, and the short-term trend is clearly downward.
The daily RSI has already moved to 44, close to the midline. If it breaks below 50, the daily trend will also turn bearish.
MACD is still above the zero line, but the histogram bars have been shrinking continuously—bullish momentum is fading. The 4-hour MACD histogram just flipped positive at 0.08, extremely weak, but at least the downward slope is slowing.
Volume today surged to 820,000 shares, 2.5 times the 10-day average. Panic selling is out. A selloff on heavy volume approaching the prior low usually means turnover is happening—someone is taking it.
Support:
214 (current prior low, being tested)
210 (prior period high-volume area)
195 (strong support on a daily basis)
Resistance:
220-221 (dense EMA9/EMA21 zone)
224-225 (prior trading range; daily EMA convergence)
230 (psychological level)
Funding rate -0.0296%. Shorts are paying longs. Positions are skewed bearish; if there’s a rebound, it may easily trigger short covering.
Nini’s plan
Current price: 214.46
Bias: slightly bullish
Execution conditions: a 4-hour close holding above 215, or a confirmed bullish breakout candle with increased volume
Entry: 213-215
Stop loss: 209.5
Target 1: 222
Target 2: 228
My view: 4-hour RSI at 17.5, crowded short positions, volume is increasing but the sell speed is slowing—so the probability of a rebound is higher than continuing to grind lower. But the moving averages are arranged bearish; the rebound strength will depend on whether 220 can hold.
Oversold can last, but it won’t last forever. It’s not too late—wait for a signal, then act.
#BCH #BCHUSDT #Oversold rebound