5H0ST

Bitcoin $BTC $64,109.53 trader bertaruh miliaran bahwa harga spot kripto tersebut akan naik menjadi $72,000 pada akhir bulan, sebuah timeline yang sejalan dengan pertemuan Federal Reserve bulan Juli.
Mereka melakukan hal itu minggu ini dengan bantuan opsi panggilan bitcoin yang terdaftar di Deribit, atau kontrak turunan yang akan membayar jika harga spot $BTC melonjak melewati level harga tertentu pada tanggal tertentu.
Menurut Deribit, total 20.000 kontrak dari opsi panggilan $70.000 yang jatuh tempo pada 31 Juli dibeli bersamaan dengan penjualan 20.000 kontrak opsi panggilan $72.000 dengan jatuh tempo yang sama. Nilai itu setara dengan $2,5 miliar dalam nilai nosional, nilai dolar dari 40.000 kontrak, masing-masing mewakili 1 bitcoin.

Bitcoin mungkin terus menyapu likuiditas di seluruh rentangnya, dengan langkah lain menuju $67.000 dan kemungkinan masih ada peluang ke $74.000-$76.000. Namun, kedua grafik memperingatkan bahwa reli bisa gagal dan mendorong $BTC menuju $55.000 atau area $50.000-an rendah sebelum pemulihan yang lebih besar.
Pola Midterm Bitcoin Mengarah ke Reli, Krisis, Lalu Puncak Baru
Bitcoin dapat menguat hingga pemilihan sela AS 2026 sebelum mengalami penurunan tajam setelah pemilu, menurut Castillo Trading. Perkiraan jalurnya kemudian menunjukkan $BTC pulih dari area $50.000-an rendah dan akhirnya bergerak menuju rekor tertinggi baru.

ARK Invest stated that despite Bitcoin losing approximately 14% of its value in the second quarter of 2026, on-chain data is signaling the end of selling pressure. The company considered the record-high amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors as a significant indicator pointing to a potential market bottom.
According to ARK Invest’s second-quarter Bitcoin report, $BTC closed June at approximately $58,544. During this period, the Bitcoin price fell below the short-term investor realization price of around $70,327, the 200-day moving average of $75,371, and the on-chain average of around $76,660.
The report stated that Bitcoin remaining below all three key moving averages is historically linked to bearish market conditions. Therefore, it argued that the technical outlook has not yet significantly improved.
However, on-chain indicators suggest that the sell-off may be nearing its final stages. For the first time in this cycle, the percentage of Bitcoin supply at a loss has surpassed the percentage at a profit, reaching approximately 54%. The percentage of Bitcoin at a profit, meanwhile, has fallen to 46%.
ARK Invest noted that the supply of shares in losses exceeding the supply of shares in profits has generally been observed in past market cycles near bottom levels. The fact that the rate of realized losses briefly surpassed the rate of realized profits, and that the ratio fell to 0.82, was also considered a sign of exhaustion in selling pressure.
Another key finding in the report was the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors. The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors increased by approximately 313,000 $BTC in the second quarter, reaching an all-time high of 14.85 million $BTC .
According to ARK Invest, long-term investors with high levels of conviction continued to accumulate Bitcoin distributed in the market during the price decline. The company noted that the increase in the supply from long-term investors during the price drop constituted a positive divergence in terms of the fundamental outlook of the market.
However, the report noted that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to its historically low on-chain cost levels. It stated that Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $53,000, while its investor price is around $49,000.
ARK Invest stated that the downside risks have not completely disappeared, as Bitcoin has not yet tested this cost range between $49,000 and $53,000. According to the company, the process of returning to the average, which has accompanied global market lows in the past, has not yet occurred.
The report also stated that outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US increased pressure on the market. The funds recorded net outflows for seven consecutive weeks towards the end of the quarter, losing approximately 71,000 $BTC in assets throughout the second quarter.
Related News Net Inflows into Cryptocurrency Investment Products Have Begun Again: Is This a Sign of a Bitcoin Rally?
During the worst week of late June, approximately 30,000 BTC were withdrawn from ETFs. ARK Invest stated that the weakening spot ETF demand indicates that one of the most important marginal demand sources supporting the Bitcoin price has lost strength.
Signs of stress were also seen in the funding conditions of Bitcoin treasury companies. Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, codenamed “Stretch,” fell from its nominal value of $100 to as low as $74.57 during the quarter. STRC finished the second quarter at approximately $84.86.
ARK Invest stated that STRC trading below its face value could indicate an increase in the cost of capital for leveraged companies building Bitcoin treasuries.
Bitcoin’s three-month futures base rate remained low but positive at an average of 2.3% throughout the quarter. The fact that the rate occasionally approached backwardation indicated that demand for leveraged long positions and speculative appetite were limited.
ARK Invest evaluated technical and on-chain indicators as well as the macroeconomic environment. The report argued that technology-driven productivity increases limited inflationary pressures.
It was stated that although unit labor costs increased by 0.5 percent, productivity rose by 2.8 percent, and core consumer inflation remained at around 2.9 percent despite the increase in oil prices.
The company also argued that the flattening of the yield curve reflected deflationary trends rather than recession. It stated that artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, deregulation, and regulations allowing investments to be expensed directly supported capital expenditures.
According to ARK Invest, new orders for core capital goods hitting a record high and surpassing a 25-year resistance level indicates the formation of a sustained growth cycle driven by technology and energy investments.
*This is not investment advice.
#BTC #bitcionstrategy #NewsAboutCrypto

Investor malaikat terkemuka dan pendukung awal Uber, Jason Calacanis, berpendapat bahwa tantangan terbesar Bitcoin bukan lagi asetnya itu sendiri, melainkan meningkatnya pengaruh Strategy (dulu MicroStrategy) dan pendiri bersama yang berangotakan Michael Saylor.
"Tantangan bagi $BTC adalah bahwa satu orang menyebabkan kekacauan ($MSTR ), sementara ritel lebih tertarik pada taruhan pada produk-produk yang mengubah dunia (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic)," tulis Calacanis di X.
Masalah besar
Calacanis telah menjadi salah satu kritikus paling vokal terhadap model korporat Strategy yang berpusat pada Bitcoin. Argumennya bukan bahwa Bitcoin itu sendiri pada dasarnya cacat, melainkan bahwa Strategy sudah menjadi begitu dominan sehingga mendistorsi narasi pasar.

The $BTC
Dasar Bitcoin mungkin sudah ada—tapi jangan terlalu berharap: Menurut salah satu firma investasi, Bitcoin mungkin akan kesulitan untuk naik kapan saja dalam waktu dekat.
Laporan Jumat dari perusahaan manajemen aset Eropa CoinShares menyatakan bahwa investor pekan lalu menyalurkan dana segar ke produk investasi berbasis pertukaran untuk Bitcoin—dan kripto lainnya—yang menunjukkan adanya perubahan sentimen.
Namun faktor lain mungkin membuat pasar aset digital tidak bergerak lebih tinggi, James Butterfill, kepala riset di CoinShares, menulis.
“Kami telah mengatakan sejak beberapa waktu lalu bahwa Bitcoin kemungkinan besar telah mencapai, atau sedang mendekati, titik terendahnya,” bunyi laporan tersebut. “Namun kami tidak melihat potensi kenaikan yang berarti dari sini.”

$BTC
Bitcoin diperdagangkan pada $62.661 pada 17 Juli, turun 1,74%, mundur setelah dua upaya gagal untuk bertahan di atas $65.000 minggu ini. Arus masuk ETF tetap positif di tengah volatilitas, namun penolakan ganda di area resistance dan penurunan kembali di bawah EMA 20 hari memunculkan pertanyaan apakah dorongan musiman dapat bertahan hingga dua minggu terakhir bulan ini.
$BTC Harga Hari Ini: Double Top di $65K Mengingatkan Keuntungan Musiman
$BTC 1D Price Action (Sumber: TradingView)
Grafik harian menunjukkan BTC tergelincir kembali di bawah EMA 20 hari di $63.219 setelah dua kali penolakan di area $65.000 pekan ini. Garis tengah Bollinger di $62.578 menjadi level terdekat yang kini jadi perhatian, terletak tepat di bawah harga saat ini. Area support horizontal yang terlihat pada grafik mendekati $58.500 berjarak selaras dengan Lower Bollinger Band di $59.075, membentuk lantai yang perlu dipertahankan bull jika aksi jual berlanjut hingga akhir pekan.

While the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains above $60,000 following recent declines in June, an analyst has stated that a key indicator that could signal the bottom of a bear cycle in the Bitcoin market is beginning to re-emerge.
At this point, an analyst named Cryptovizart from the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode analyzed investors who have been holding $BTC
for 1-2 years, whom he calls holders.
The analyst noted that the number of loss-making sales by investors, particularly those who have held Bitcoin for the past 1-2 years, has decreased, and that this historically signals the final phase of bear markets.
According to the analyst, as the loss-taking due to the disappointment experienced by this group of investors increases, the selling pressure in the market reaches its peak. A decrease in sales from this group of investors is considered one of the earliest signals of a bottom formation.
According to the data, the losses of this group of investors showed a downward trend and a reversal after their 30-day moving average exceeded $75 million.
At this point, the analyst stated that this indicator has also signaled in past cycles that the peak selling period has ended and the market is beginning to form a bottom.
“…When the 30-day moving average (30D-SMA) of realized losses turns downwards and trades sideways, this has often been one of the clearest early signals that the most intense distribution phase in the market is over.”
However, the analyst noted that the decline in losses alone does not constitute a definitive bottom signal, but only serves as a reliable leading indicator in previous market cycles, adding that this data should be closely monitored.
Glassnode analysts also noted in their weekly report that the cost floor for short-term investors is around $69,000, and that this level could be a significant support and area of resistance for the Bitcoin price in the coming period.
*This is not investment advice.
#BTC #BitcoinDown32.9%YTDAsETFsShed$4.9B #news

Ether ($ETH ) jatuh dua kali lebih parah daripada bitcoin pada Jumat, dan hyperliquid's $HYPER turun lebih dari lima kali lebih parah, karena penjualan saham semikonduktor Asia menyeret semua kripto utama lebih rendah.
Ether turun 4% menjadi $1.850, meski masih naik 4% selama tujuh sesi dan menjadi satu-satunya kripto besar yang masih berwarna hijau untuk minggu ini. $HYPE adalah yang terburuk di antara mereka, turun 10% pada hari itu dan 12% untuk minggu ini, penurunan tertajamnya sejak Juni. Solana turun 2% menjadi $75 dan turun 5% untuk minggu ini.
$XRP turun 2% menjadi $1,09, BNB turun 2% menjadi $571, TRON turun menjadi 32 sen dan dogecoin turun 2%. Bitcoin bertahan paling baik di antara kelompok tersebut, turun 2% menjadi sekitar $63.400 dan 1% untuk minggu ini, setelah gagal dua kali di $65.000.

Binance, salah satu bursa mata uang kripto terbesar di dunia, mengumumkan bahwa pihaknya akan mencantumkan token Aerodrome ($AERO ) di pasar spot. Berdasarkan pernyataan bursa, $AERO trading akan dimulai pada 17 Juli 2026, pukul 2 PM. Setelah pencatatan, pengguna dapat memperdagangkan $AERO /USDT, $AERO /$USDC, dan $AERO /TRY.
Binance mengumumkan bahwa $AERO deposits akan diaktifkan sekitar satu jam sebelum perdagangan spot dibuka, sehingga memberi waktu bagi pengguna untuk bersiap menjelang dimulainya perdagangan. Penarikan akan tersedia mulai pukul 14.00 pada 18 Juli 2026. Bursa juga menyatakan bahwa tidak akan ada biaya pencatatan yang dikenakan, dengan menetapkan biaya pencatatan sebesar 0 BNB.

Perdagangan Intraday yang Bergejolak$BTC
Pada Kamis, bitcoin gagal mempertahankan tren naik yang sebelumnya mencatat kenaikan signifikan dalam 48 jam terakhir. Data pasar menunjukkan mata uang kripto itu secara bertahap mundur dari ambang batas $65.000 yang telah dilewatinya setelah rilis indeks harga produsen AS pada 15 Juli. Penurunan sempat terhenti setelah bitcoin jatuh ke hanya sedikit di atas $64.400.
Dorongan berikutnya menuju $65.000 sempat tersendat di dekat $64.900 sekitar pukul 1:30 pagi EST, memicu penurunan tajam ke $63.900 sebelum reli singkat memberi sedikit dorongan agar harga kembali menembus di atas $64.000. Menjelang pukul 8:44 pagi, bitcoin merosot ke level terendah harian di $63.808, meski pemulihan cepat segera mengangkatnya kembali melewati $64.700.

Morgan Stanley, perusahaan keuangan global yang sangat besar dan terkenal, memiliki platform perdagangan online populer bernama E*TRADE.
Secara sederhana, Morgan Stanley baru saja melakukan pembaruan besar pada E*TRADE. Kini, mereka mengizinkan investor individu harian yang memenuhi syarat untuk membeli, menjual, dan menyimpan kripto nyata bersamaan dengan saham dan obligasi reguler mereka.
Mereka memulai dengan tiga mata uang kripto terbesar dan paling populer:
Bitcoin ($BTC
)
Ethereum ($ETH
)
Solana ($SOL
)
Agar ini dapat terjadi dengan aman dan lancar, E*TRADE menggunakan teknologi serta infrastruktur backend dari perusahaan kripto khusus bernama Zero Hash.

Bitcoin ($BTC ) menunjukkan performa kuat pekan ini, memantul dari $61.500 ke hampir $65.000. Reli ini didorong oleh kabar makro yang positif, karena CPI AS (inflasi) bulan Juni lebih dingin dari perkiraan, yakni 3,5%, sehingga kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga mereda dan membuat Indeks Dolar AS ($DXYZ.US ) turun.
Namun, saat $BTC attempts untuk naik lebih tinggi, dua kelompok besar investor sedang menjual pada kekuatan ini, menciptakan hambatan resistansi overhead yang berat:
1️⃣ Kecewa Pemegang Jangka Panjang (LTH) 📉
Aksi: Investor yang membeli di dekat puncak siklus tahun lalu menyerah.