cryptotradehead
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cryptotradehead
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backtesting, analyse, how to use AI for trading - can you be a good trader?
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Trader de alta frecuencia
4.8 años
7 Siguiendo
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HOW I TESTED IT
Funding is the payment between long and short holders of a perpetual. Positive means longs pay shorts, which is the usual state of a market where most people are betting up.
Across 34,431 prints, BNB averages NEGATIVE funding - shorts pay longs - and only 22% of its prints are positive. BTC, ETH and DOGE are all positive.
So holding a long BNB perp is paid to exist, where a long BTC perp pays rent.
THE NUMBERS
BNB funding: -0.0042%
Prints positive: only 22%
BTC / ETH / DOGE: positive
Events measured: 34,431
It is far too small to build a strategy on - 0.0042% against 8-hour price swings of 2.36%. But if you are already holding a position, the direction of funding is not the same on every coin, and most people assume it is.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
Funding is the payment between long and short holders of a perpetual. Positive means longs pay shorts, which is the usual state of a market where most people are betting up.
Across 34,431 prints, BNB averages NEGATIVE funding - shorts pay longs - and only 22% of its prints are positive. BTC, ETH and DOGE are all positive.
So holding a long BNB perp is paid to exist, where a long BTC perp pays rent.
THE NUMBERS
BNB funding: -0.0042%
Prints positive: only 22%
BTC / ETH / DOGE: positive
Events measured: 34,431
It is far too small to build a strategy on - 0.0042% against 8-hour price swings of 2.36%. But if you are already holding a position, the direction of funding is not the same on every coin, and most people assume it is.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Funding is the payment between long and short holders of a perpetual. Positive means longs pay shorts, which is the usual state of a market where most people are betting up.
Across 34,431 prints, BNB averages NEGATIVE funding - shorts pay longs - and only 22% of its prints are positive. BTC, ETH and DOGE are all positive.
So holding a long BNB perp is paid to exist, where a long BTC perp pays rent.
THE NUMBERS
BNB funding: -0.0042%
Prints positive: only 22%
BTC / ETH / DOGE: positive
Events measured: 34,431
It is far too small to build a strategy on - 0.0042% against 8-hour price swings of 2.36%. But if you are already holding a position, the direction of funding is not the same on every coin, and most people assume it is.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Artículo
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DGB is up +16.27% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
DGB: +16.27%
PROM: +10.60%
PHA: +10.28%
SOXSB: +8.11%
BMT: +8.00%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like DGB's +16.27%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $DGB $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #DGB #CryptoData
DGB is up +16.27% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
DGB: +16.27%
PROM: +10.60%
PHA: +10.28%
SOXSB: +8.11%
BMT: +8.00%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like DGB's +16.27%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $DGB $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #DGB #CryptoData
DGB: +16.27%
PROM: +10.60%
PHA: +10.28%
SOXSB: +8.11%
BMT: +8.00%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like DGB's +16.27%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $DGB $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #DGB #CryptoData
6
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HOW I TESTED IT
I backtested a martingale system - add to losers, close when it recovers. 75 of 78 trades were winners.
It still lost 519.83 USDT, because the three losing trades gave back more than all 75 winners made combined.
Peak margin on those trades reached 4x the entire account.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 96%
Winning trades: 75 of 78
Net result: -519.83
Worst 3 trades combined: -1,098.53
Win rate is the easiest number to make look good and the least informative one to report. Anyone showing you a win rate without the size of the losses is showing you the half of the picture that flatters them.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
I backtested a martingale system - add to losers, close when it recovers. 75 of 78 trades were winners.
It still lost 519.83 USDT, because the three losing trades gave back more than all 75 winners made combined.
Peak margin on those trades reached 4x the entire account.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 96%
Winning trades: 75 of 78
Net result: -519.83
Worst 3 trades combined: -1,098.53
Win rate is the easiest number to make look good and the least informative one to report. Anyone showing you a win rate without the size of the losses is showing you the half of the picture that flatters them.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
I backtested a martingale system - add to losers, close when it recovers. 75 of 78 trades were winners.
It still lost 519.83 USDT, because the three losing trades gave back more than all 75 winners made combined.
Peak margin on those trades reached 4x the entire account.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 96%
Winning trades: 75 of 78
Net result: -519.83
Worst 3 trades combined: -1,098.53
Win rate is the easiest number to make look good and the least informative one to report. Anyone showing you a win rate without the size of the losses is showing you the half of the picture that flatters them.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
2
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HOW I TESTED IT
Momentum inverted in 2026. The obvious fix: watch recent performance, and flip to the opposite rule when momentum stops paying.
I tested that over six different lookback windows. The best one returned +1.783% per rebalance against a +1.737% baseline - a difference indistinguishable from noise. Every other window was worse. None repaired 2026.
The reason is simple: by the time trailing performance tells you the regime flipped, you have already taken the losses that told you.
THE NUMBERS
Baseline: +1.737%/reb
Best adaptive rule: +1.783%/reb
Difference: noise
Best fix for 2026: still -0.66%
Adaptive rules feel like the answer to regime change. They are usually just a slower version of the same bet, with the losses already paid for the signal.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
Momentum inverted in 2026. The obvious fix: watch recent performance, and flip to the opposite rule when momentum stops paying.
I tested that over six different lookback windows. The best one returned +1.783% per rebalance against a +1.737% baseline - a difference indistinguishable from noise. Every other window was worse. None repaired 2026.
The reason is simple: by the time trailing performance tells you the regime flipped, you have already taken the losses that told you.
THE NUMBERS
Baseline: +1.737%/reb
Best adaptive rule: +1.783%/reb
Difference: noise
Best fix for 2026: still -0.66%
Adaptive rules feel like the answer to regime change. They are usually just a slower version of the same bet, with the losses already paid for the signal.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Momentum inverted in 2026. The obvious fix: watch recent performance, and flip to the opposite rule when momentum stops paying.
I tested that over six different lookback windows. The best one returned +1.783% per rebalance against a +1.737% baseline - a difference indistinguishable from noise. Every other window was worse. None repaired 2026.
The reason is simple: by the time trailing performance tells you the regime flipped, you have already taken the losses that told you.
THE NUMBERS
Baseline: +1.737%/reb
Best adaptive rule: +1.783%/reb
Difference: noise
Best fix for 2026: still -0.66%
Adaptive rules feel like the answer to regime change. They are usually just a slower version of the same bet, with the losses already paid for the signal.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Artículo
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PROM is up +15.23% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
PROM: +15.23%
SOXSB: +11.65%
AVA: +7.79%
HFT: +6.28%
PHA: +5.44%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PROM's +15.23%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PROM $SOXSB $AVA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PROM #CryptoData
PROM is up +15.23% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
PROM: +15.23%
SOXSB: +11.65%
AVA: +7.79%
HFT: +6.28%
PHA: +5.44%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PROM's +15.23%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PROM $SOXSB $AVA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PROM #CryptoData
PROM: +15.23%
SOXSB: +11.65%
AVA: +7.79%
HFT: +6.28%
PHA: +5.44%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PROM's +15.23%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PROM $SOXSB $AVA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PROM #CryptoData
3
Artículo
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After 378 failures, one strategy finally passed the test that killed all the others.After 378 failures, one strategy finally passed the test that killed all the others.
Rank 45 perpetuals by 5-day return. Long the top 5, short the bottom 5, hold 15 days, rebalance. Equal weight, dollar-neutral.
The out-of-sample control is the one that had destroyed everything before it: fix the settings on old data, then run them on data the search never touched. In-sample +1.711% per rebalance, out-of-sample +1.801%. The mean held.
It also survives costs far worse than real: still +0.48% per rebalance even at a 1.50% round trip, six times what Binance actually charges.
WHAT IT MEANS
Being long and short at the same time means the market's direction cancels out. What is left is whether the winners keep beating the losers - which is a real question, not a bet on the market going up.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BNB $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
After 378 failures, one strategy finally passed the test that killed all the others.
After 378 failures, one strategy finally passed the test that killed all the others.
Rank 45 perpetuals by 5-day return. Long the top 5, short the bottom 5, hold 15 days, rebalance. Equal weight, dollar-neutral.
The out-of-sample control is the one that had destroyed everything before it: fix the settings on old data, then run them on data the search never touched. In-sample +1.711% per rebalance, out-of-sample +1.801%. The mean held.
It also survives costs far worse than real: still +0.48% per rebalance even at a 1.50% round trip, six times what Binance actually charges.
WHAT IT MEANS
Being long and short at the same time means the market's direction cancels out. What is left is whether the winners keep beating the losers - which is a real question, not a bet on the market going up.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BNB $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Rank 45 perpetuals by 5-day return. Long the top 5, short the bottom 5, hold 15 days, rebalance. Equal weight, dollar-neutral.
The out-of-sample control is the one that had destroyed everything before it: fix the settings on old data, then run them on data the search never touched. In-sample +1.711% per rebalance, out-of-sample +1.801%. The mean held.
It also survives costs far worse than real: still +0.48% per rebalance even at a 1.50% round trip, six times what Binance actually charges.
WHAT IT MEANS
Being long and short at the same time means the market's direction cancels out. What is left is whether the winners keep beating the losers - which is a real question, not a bet on the market going up.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BNB $BTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
2
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HOW I TESTED IT
Same universe, same ranking rule, same holding period, five different years.
2024 and 2025 carried the whole strategy. 2026 is the worst year of the five - a 25% win rate over roughly nine months.
Buying the strongest coins and shorting the weakest has stopped working this year. Doing the opposite would have returned +1.47% per rebalance at a 69% win rate.
THE NUMBERS
2022: +0.510%
2023: -0.323%
2024: +5.008%
2025: +3.900%
2026 YTD: -1.950%
A strategy is not a fact about markets, it is a fact about a period. Anyone showing you a backtest without the year-by-year breakdown is hiding the years that did not work.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
Same universe, same ranking rule, same holding period, five different years.
2024 and 2025 carried the whole strategy. 2026 is the worst year of the five - a 25% win rate over roughly nine months.
Buying the strongest coins and shorting the weakest has stopped working this year. Doing the opposite would have returned +1.47% per rebalance at a 69% win rate.
THE NUMBERS
2022: +0.510%
2023: -0.323%
2024: +5.008%
2025: +3.900%
2026 YTD: -1.950%
A strategy is not a fact about markets, it is a fact about a period. Anyone showing you a backtest without the year-by-year breakdown is hiding the years that did not work.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Same universe, same ranking rule, same holding period, five different years.
2024 and 2025 carried the whole strategy. 2026 is the worst year of the five - a 25% win rate over roughly nine months.
Buying the strongest coins and shorting the weakest has stopped working this year. Doing the opposite would have returned +1.47% per rebalance at a 69% win rate.
THE NUMBERS
2022: +0.510%
2023: -0.323%
2024: +5.008%
2025: +3.900%
2026 YTD: -1.950%
A strategy is not a fact about markets, it is a fact about a period. Anyone showing you a backtest without the year-by-year breakdown is hiding the years that did not work.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $SOL $BTC $ETH
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
1
Artículo
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PHA is up +21.73% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
PHA: +21.73%
LUMIA: +15.55%
PROM: +12.08%
AVA: +11.85%
SOXSB: +8.65%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PHA's +21.73%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PHA $LUMIA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PHA #CryptoData
PHA is up +21.73% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
PHA: +21.73%
LUMIA: +15.55%
PROM: +12.08%
AVA: +11.85%
SOXSB: +8.65%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PHA's +21.73%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PHA $LUMIA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PHA #CryptoData
PHA: +21.73%
LUMIA: +15.55%
PROM: +12.08%
AVA: +11.85%
SOXSB: +8.65%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like PHA's +21.73%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $PHA $LUMIA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #PHA #CryptoData
3
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HOW I TESTED IT
Two signal families, four timeframes, EMA and SMA, with and without a trend filter, long-only and short-only. 378 combinations in total, all with real fees and real measured slippage applied.
The round-trip cost of a trade is 0.240% of position size. The average result per trade, across every single configuration, landed between -0.361% and -0.401%.
That is the cost, and nothing else.
THE NUMBERS
Round-trip cost: 0.240%
Avg result, 15m setups: -0.361%
Avg result, 1h setups: -0.401%
Configurations profitable: 0 of 378
If a signal carried any directional information at all, the results would vary between configurations. Some would beat the cost line. None did. That is not weak edge that needs tuning - it is zero edge being charged an entry fee.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result...
HOW I TESTED IT
Two signal families, four timeframes, EMA and SMA, with and without a trend filter, long-only and short-only. 378 combinations in total, all with real fees and real measured slippage applied.
The round-trip cost of a trade is 0.240% of position size. The average result per trade, across every single configuration, landed between -0.361% and -0.401%.
That is the cost, and nothing else.
THE NUMBERS
Round-trip cost: 0.240%
Avg result, 15m setups: -0.361%
Avg result, 1h setups: -0.401%
Configurations profitable: 0 of 378
If a signal carried any directional information at all, the results would vary between configurations. Some would beat the cost line. None did. That is not weak edge that needs tuning - it is zero edge being charged an entry fee.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result...
Two signal families, four timeframes, EMA and SMA, with and without a trend filter, long-only and short-only. 378 combinations in total, all with real fees and real measured slippage applied.
The round-trip cost of a trade is 0.240% of position size. The average result per trade, across every single configuration, landed between -0.361% and -0.401%.
That is the cost, and nothing else.
THE NUMBERS
Round-trip cost: 0.240%
Avg result, 15m setups: -0.361%
Avg result, 1h setups: -0.401%
Configurations profitable: 0 of 378
If a signal carried any directional information at all, the results would vary between configurations. Some would beat the cost line. None did. That is not weak edge that needs tuning - it is zero edge being charged an entry fee.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result...
5
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HOW I TESTED IT
The typical trade in this system loses 1.535 USDT. Nearly two out of three trades are losers.
It is profitable anyway, because the winners are much larger than the losers. The mean trade is positive while the median is clearly negative.
It is also the opposite shape to the martingale I tested, which won 96% of the time and still lost 519.83 USDT.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 35.6%
Median trade: -1.535 USDT
Mean trade: +0.036 USDT
Total, 3,209 trades: +116.29 USDT
Losing most of the time is survivable. Losing big once is not. Judge a system by the size of its losses, never by how often it wins.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
The typical trade in this system loses 1.535 USDT. Nearly two out of three trades are losers.
It is profitable anyway, because the winners are much larger than the losers. The mean trade is positive while the median is clearly negative.
It is also the opposite shape to the martingale I tested, which won 96% of the time and still lost 519.83 USDT.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 35.6%
Median trade: -1.535 USDT
Mean trade: +0.036 USDT
Total, 3,209 trades: +116.29 USDT
Losing most of the time is survivable. Losing big once is not. Judge a system by the size of its losses, never by how often it wins.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
The typical trade in this system loses 1.535 USDT. Nearly two out of three trades are losers.
It is profitable anyway, because the winners are much larger than the losers. The mean trade is positive while the median is clearly negative.
It is also the opposite shape to the martingale I tested, which won 96% of the time and still lost 519.83 USDT.
THE NUMBERS
Win rate: 35.6%
Median trade: -1.535 USDT
Mean trade: +0.036 USDT
Total, 3,209 trades: +116.29 USDT
Losing most of the time is survivable. Losing big once is not. Judge a system by the size of its losses, never by how often it wins.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
5
Artículo
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ALT is up +17.35% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +17.35%
PHA: +15.40%
PROM: +14.15%
IOTX: +11.19%
AVA: +10.57%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +17.35%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT is up +17.35% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +17.35%
PHA: +15.40%
PROM: +14.15%
IOTX: +11.19%
AVA: +10.57%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +17.35%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT: +17.35%
PHA: +15.40%
PROM: +14.15%
IOTX: +11.19%
AVA: +10.57%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +17.35%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
Ver traducción
This is tail capture, not income. Realistically it does nothing in calm markets and pays during sharp selloffs. Expecting it to earn every month is how people quit a strategy right before it works.
Here is what that came from.
Two thirds of my strategy's profit came from one year. That is not an edge, it is an event.
The headline number was +134.12 USDT from short breakouts. Then I split it by year.
2022 - the year of the LUNA collapse and the FTX failure - produced 88.54 of it. Strip that year out and four years of trading returned 45.59 USDT, most of it from 2025.
2026 so far is flat.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
This is tail capture, not income. Realistically it does nothing in calm markets and pays during sharp selloffs. Expecting it to earn every month is how people quit a strategy right before it works.
Here is what that came from.
Two thirds of my strategy's profit came from one year. That is not an edge, it is an event.
The headline number was +134.12 USDT from short breakouts. Then I split it by year.
2022 - the year of the LUNA collapse and the FTX failure - produced 88.54 of it. Strip that year out and four years of trading returned 45.59 USDT, most of it from 2025.
2026 so far is flat.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Here is what that came from.
Two thirds of my strategy's profit came from one year. That is not an edge, it is an event.
The headline number was +134.12 USDT from short breakouts. Then I split it by year.
2022 - the year of the LUNA collapse and the FTX failure - produced 88.54 of it. Strip that year out and four years of trading returned 45.59 USDT, most of it from 2025.
2026 so far is flat.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Ver traducción
HOW I TESTED IT
Collecting funding on perpetuals is sold as passive yield. I pulled 34,431 funding events across 7 symbols and measured it.
Average funding is 0.0024% per 8-hour period. On a 150 USDT position that is 0.0036 USDT. A round trip costs 0.36 USDT - you would hold for 33 days just to cover entry and exit.
Meanwhile the price moves 2.36% in a typical 8 hours.
THE NUMBERS
Mean funding per 8h: 0.0024%
Annualised: 2.6%
8h price volatility: 2.36%
Periods to cover costs: 100
The income is real but tiny, and the price risk you take to earn it is roughly a thousand times larger. This is why desks that trade it hedge with spot. Unhedged, it is not income - it is a directional bet with a rebate.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
HOW I TESTED IT
Collecting funding on perpetuals is sold as passive yield. I pulled 34,431 funding events across 7 symbols and measured it.
Average funding is 0.0024% per 8-hour period. On a 150 USDT position that is 0.0036 USDT. A round trip costs 0.36 USDT - you would hold for 33 days just to cover entry and exit.
Meanwhile the price moves 2.36% in a typical 8 hours.
THE NUMBERS
Mean funding per 8h: 0.0024%
Annualised: 2.6%
8h price volatility: 2.36%
Periods to cover costs: 100
The income is real but tiny, and the price risk you take to earn it is roughly a thousand times larger. This is why desks that trade it hedge with spot. Unhedged, it is not income - it is a directional bet with a rebate.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Collecting funding on perpetuals is sold as passive yield. I pulled 34,431 funding events across 7 symbols and measured it.
Average funding is 0.0024% per 8-hour period. On a 150 USDT position that is 0.0036 USDT. A round trip costs 0.36 USDT - you would hold for 33 days just to cover entry and exit.
Meanwhile the price moves 2.36% in a typical 8 hours.
THE NUMBERS
Mean funding per 8h: 0.0024%
Annualised: 2.6%
8h price volatility: 2.36%
Periods to cover costs: 100
The income is real but tiny, and the price risk you take to earn it is roughly a thousand times larger. This is why desks that trade it hedge with spot. Unhedged, it is not income - it is a directional bet with a rebate.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Artículo
Ver traducción
ALT is up +20.18% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.18%
PHA: +14.59%
PROM: +13.31%
AVA: +11.43%
IOTX: +9.79%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.18%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT is up +20.18% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.18%
PHA: +14.59%
PROM: +13.31%
AVA: +11.43%
IOTX: +9.79%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.18%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT: +20.18%
PHA: +14.59%
PROM: +13.31%
AVA: +11.43%
IOTX: +9.79%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.18%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PHA $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
Ver traducción
DAY 1 - 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT
Balance: 5,063.23 USDT
Change: +0.00 USDT (+0.0%)
Runners stopped while I rebuild the strategy from the backtest evidence. Nothing open.
Running on a Binance testnet account, so this is demo capital - I would rather say that than let you assume otherwise. The strategy, the costs and the losses are all real.
No signals for sale, no course, no affiliate link. Just the account and the data behind it.
Traded in this challenge: $BTC $SOL $AVAX
#Binance #USDT #Futures #TradingChallenge #Crypto
DAY 1 - 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT
Balance: 5,063.23 USDT
Change: +0.00 USDT (+0.0%)
Runners stopped while I rebuild the strategy from the backtest evidence. Nothing open.
Running on a Binance testnet account, so this is demo capital - I would rather say that than let you assume otherwise. The strategy, the costs and the losses are all real.
No signals for sale, no course, no affiliate link. Just the account and the data behind it.
Traded in this challenge: $BTC $SOL $AVAX
#Binance #USDT #Futures #TradingChallenge #Crypto
Balance: 5,063.23 USDT
Change: +0.00 USDT (+0.0%)
Runners stopped while I rebuild the strategy from the backtest evidence. Nothing open.
Running on a Binance testnet account, so this is demo capital - I would rather say that than let you assume otherwise. The strategy, the costs and the losses are all real.
No signals for sale, no course, no affiliate link. Just the account and the data behind it.
Traded in this challenge: $BTC $SOL $AVAX
#Binance #USDT #Futures #TradingChallenge #Crypto
4
CÓMO LO PROBÉ
Durante una caída rápida, Binance rechazó mi stop-loss con el error -2021: el mercado ya había superado el precio de activación antes de que se ejecutara la orden.
Mi código no gestionó ese rechazo. La posición quedó abierta sin stop y, como el estado interno del bot nunca la registró, la siguiente señal abrió otra posición encima. Tres veces.
El riesgo previsto era de 3 USDT. La pérdida real fue de 11.75 USDT.
LAS CIFRAS
Pérdida máxima prevista: -3.00
Pérdida real: -11.75
Posiciones acumuladas: 3
Tiempo transcurrido: 6 segundos
Un backtest da por hecho que tu stop-loss siempre existe. En operaciones reales, puede que rechacen la orden. La diferencia entre esas dos suposiciones es donde se pierde dinero de verdad.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT. Publico todos los resultados, incluso los que me dejan mal.
Ejecutado en $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
CÓMO LO PROBÉ
Durante una caída rápida, Binance rechazó mi stop-loss con el error -2021: el mercado ya había superado el precio de activación antes de que se ejecutara la orden.
Mi código no gestionó ese rechazo. La posición quedó abierta sin stop y, como el estado interno del bot nunca la registró, la siguiente señal abrió otra posición encima. Tres veces.
El riesgo previsto era de 3 USDT. La pérdida real fue de 11.75 USDT.
LAS CIFRAS
Pérdida máxima prevista: -3.00
Pérdida real: -11.75
Posiciones acumuladas: 3
Tiempo transcurrido: 6 segundos
Un backtest da por hecho que tu stop-loss siempre existe. En operaciones reales, puede que rechacen la orden. La diferencia entre esas dos suposiciones es donde se pierde dinero de verdad.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT. Publico todos los resultados, incluso los que me dejan mal.
Ejecutado en $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Durante una caída rápida, Binance rechazó mi stop-loss con el error -2021: el mercado ya había superado el precio de activación antes de que se ejecutara la orden.
Mi código no gestionó ese rechazo. La posición quedó abierta sin stop y, como el estado interno del bot nunca la registró, la siguiente señal abrió otra posición encima. Tres veces.
El riesgo previsto era de 3 USDT. La pérdida real fue de 11.75 USDT.
LAS CIFRAS
Pérdida máxima prevista: -3.00
Pérdida real: -11.75
Posiciones acumuladas: 3
Tiempo transcurrido: 6 segundos
Un backtest da por hecho que tu stop-loss siempre existe. En operaciones reales, puede que rechacen la orden. La diferencia entre esas dos suposiciones es donde se pierde dinero de verdad.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT. Publico todos los resultados, incluso los que me dejan mal.
Ejecutado en $BNB
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
2
Artículo
Ver traducción
ALT is up +20.36% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.36%
PROM: +16.08%
PHA: +12.95%
SOXSB: +9.34%
BMT: +9.07%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.36%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT is up +20.36% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.36%
PROM: +16.08%
PHA: +12.95%
SOXSB: +9.34%
BMT: +9.07%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.36%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT: +20.36%
PROM: +16.08%
PHA: +12.95%
SOXSB: +9.34%
BMT: +9.07%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.36%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $PROM $PHA
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
1
Las criptomonedas caen más rápido de lo que suben: las cascadas de liquidaciones son asimétricas. Esa es una característica documentada de la estructura del mercado, por eso este resultado es más creíble que uno que solo funciona cuando todo sube.
Esto es lo que lo produjo.
Ejecuté 3,209 operaciones de ruptura. Las posiciones largas perdieron dinero. Las cortas generaron todas las ganancias.
Canal Donchian de 20 períodos, stop basado en ATR, 10 símbolos, cuatro años y medio.
Si esto fuera simplemente aprovechar un mercado alcista, las posiciones largas serían las ganadoras. No lo son: están en negativo.
Las posiciones cortas incluso ganaron dinero con monedas que SUBIERON durante el período. BTC ganó un 94 % con la estrategia de comprar y mantener, y aun así vender sus rupturas a la baja generó un rendimiento de +22.83 USDT. XRP ganó un 87 %; las posiciones cortas generaron +24.27 USDT.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT; publico todos los resultados, incluidos los que me dejan mal parado.
Ejecutado en $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Las criptomonedas caen más rápido de lo que suben: las cascadas de liquidaciones son asimétricas. Esa es una característica documentada de la estructura del mercado, por eso este resultado es más creíble que uno que solo funciona cuando todo sube.
Esto es lo que lo produjo.
Ejecuté 3,209 operaciones de ruptura. Las posiciones largas perdieron dinero. Las cortas generaron todas las ganancias.
Canal Donchian de 20 períodos, stop basado en ATR, 10 símbolos, cuatro años y medio.
Si esto fuera simplemente aprovechar un mercado alcista, las posiciones largas serían las ganadoras. No lo son: están en negativo.
Las posiciones cortas incluso ganaron dinero con monedas que SUBIERON durante el período. BTC ganó un 94 % con la estrategia de comprar y mantener, y aun así vender sus rupturas a la baja generó un rendimiento de +22.83 USDT. XRP ganó un 87 %; las posiciones cortas generaron +24.27 USDT.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT; publico todos los resultados, incluidos los que me dejan mal parado.
Ejecutado en $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
Esto es lo que lo produjo.
Ejecuté 3,209 operaciones de ruptura. Las posiciones largas perdieron dinero. Las cortas generaron todas las ganancias.
Canal Donchian de 20 períodos, stop basado en ATR, 10 símbolos, cuatro años y medio.
Si esto fuera simplemente aprovechar un mercado alcista, las posiciones largas serían las ganadoras. No lo son: están en negativo.
Las posiciones cortas incluso ganaron dinero con monedas que SUBIERON durante el período. BTC ganó un 94 % con la estrategia de comprar y mantener, y aun así vender sus rupturas a la baja generó un rendimiento de +22.83 USDT. XRP ganó un 87 %; las posiciones cortas generaron +24.27 USDT.
Parte de un experimento público: de 5,063 USDT a 1,000,000 USDT; publico todos los resultados, incluidos los que me dejan mal parado.
Ejecutado en $BTC $XRP $LTC
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
12
Artículo
Ver traducción
I measured real execution costs with 48 controlled trades. One number decides everything.I measured real execution costs with 48 controlled trades. One number decides everything.
I stopped assuming what trading costs and measured it: 48 controlled round trips, entering and exiting immediately, recording the actual fill against the reference price.
Fee was constant at 0.04% per side. Slippage was not - ETH filled at essentially zero, while DOGE cost 50 to 100 basis points per round trip.
On a 150 USDT position, a round trip costs 0.36 USDT before the market moves at all.
WHAT IT MEANS
Any strategy must clear 0.240% of position size per trade just to break even. Most published setups never mention this number, which is why most published setups lose money.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $ETH $DOGE
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
I measured real execution costs with 48 controlled trades. One number decides everything.
I measured real execution costs with 48 controlled trades. One number decides everything.
I stopped assuming what trading costs and measured it: 48 controlled round trips, entering and exiting immediately, recording the actual fill against the reference price.
Fee was constant at 0.04% per side. Slippage was not - ETH filled at essentially zero, while DOGE cost 50 to 100 basis points per round trip.
On a 150 USDT position, a round trip costs 0.36 USDT before the market moves at all.
WHAT IT MEANS
Any strategy must clear 0.240% of position size per trade just to break even. Most published setups never mention this number, which is why most published setups lose money.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $ETH $DOGE
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
I stopped assuming what trading costs and measured it: 48 controlled round trips, entering and exiting immediately, recording the actual fill against the reference price.
Fee was constant at 0.04% per side. Slippage was not - ETH filled at essentially zero, while DOGE cost 50 to 100 basis points per round trip.
On a 150 USDT position, a round trip costs 0.36 USDT before the market moves at all.
WHAT IT MEANS
Any strategy must clear 0.240% of position size per trade just to break even. Most published setups never mention this number, which is why most published setups lose money.
Part of a public experiment: 5,063 USDT to 1,000,000 USDT, every result published - including the ones that make me look bad.
Run on $ETH $DOGE
#Binance #Futures #Backtesting #TradingBot #CryptoData
4
Artículo
Ver traducción
ALT is up +20.26% - I tested both ways to trade itTODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.26%
BMT: +17.48%
PROM: +16.58%
AVA: +14.25%
SOXSB: +9.75%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.26%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $BMT $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT is up +20.26% - I tested both ways to trade it
TODAY'S TOP GAINERS
ALT: +20.26%
BMT: +17.48%
PROM: +16.58%
AVA: +14.25%
SOXSB: +9.75%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.26%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $BMT $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
ALT: +20.26%
BMT: +17.48%
PROM: +16.58%
AVA: +14.25%
SOXSB: +9.75%
Every account on this app will show you this list. Here is the part they skip.
I backtested both ways of trading a move like ALT's +20.26%: buying the breakout, and fading it on the assumption it reverts. Both lost money. Not narrowly - they lost roughly the transaction cost, 0.240% per round trip, which is what a signal carrying no information looks like once you charge it fees.
A large 24-hour move tells you something already happened. It does not tell you what happens next, and the data says so in both directions.
Part of a public experiment: every strategy I test gets published, working or not.
Movers above: $ALT $BMT $PROM
#Binance #Altcoins #Futures #ALT #CryptoData
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ChinaSeeksToSeize61800BTC
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#ChinaSeeksToSeize61800BTC
🇨🇳 China intenta reclamar 61.800 BTC retenidos en el Reino Unido
⚖️ Los fiscales chinos quieren confiscar más de 61.800 BTC vinculados al presunto fraude de 40.380 millones de yuanes (unos 5.700 millones de dólares) de Qian Zhimin
📅 Un tribunal de Tianjin aceptó la solicitud el 28 de septiembre y lo anunció el 13 de octubre
⏳ Las víctimas y otras partes tienen 6 meses para sumarse al caso
👥 El esquema, que operó entre 2014 y 2017, afectó a más de 102.000 inversores, con pérdidas cercanas a los 20.000 millones de yuanes
🇬🇧 Las monedas están bajo custodia de las autoridades británicas, después de que la policía las incautara en 2018
📜 El Tribunal Superior del Reino Unido acaba de dictaminar que la legislación china rige las reclamaciones de propiedad de las víctimas
📊 A unos 82.000 dólares por BTC, 61.800 BTC valen alrededor de 5.070 millones de dólares
Qué significa para Bitcoin: aceptar la solicitud no mueve ninguna moneda. La verdadera pregunta es quién acabará teniéndolas y si alguna vez se venderá alguna, una decisión que podría tardar años.
¿Deberían devolverse a las víctimas los BTC incautados o quedarse en manos del Estado? 👇
$BTC
#CryptoNews #Bitcoin #China #ChinaSeeksToSeize61800BTC
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