BTB投研-中南

$BTC

Recently, I was lucky. The upward target I predicted was around 842, but it slightly exceeded expectations and rose to 87K. I went short at 872, and my final short average price was 838.

The chart below is the forecast I made a few days ago. The time points are slightly off, but the locations are pretty close—it’s impossible to be perfectly precise.

In fact, the ideal scenario for a pullback is that daily support holds around 77–79 and price continues upward. The worst-case scenario is that a weekly-level decline begins, dropping to around 70K, but that would require a macro event to trigger it.

$BTC

Recently, I was lucky. The upward target I predicted was around 842, but it slightly exceeded expectations and rose to 87K. I went short at 872, and my final short average price was 838.

The chart below is the forecast I made a few days ago. The time points are slightly off, but the locations are pretty close—it’s impossible to be perfectly precise.

In fact, the ideal scenario for a pullback is that daily support holds around 77–79 and price continues upward. The worst-case scenario is that a weekly-level decline begins, dropping to around 70K, but that would require a macro event to trigger it.

$BTC I analyzed it in reverse: if rates are going to be cut in September, then perhaps it’s inevitable that in August there will suddenly be a turning point where price spikes upward. The top-side consolidation from the prior week is very normal—just a supply-and-demand transition.

For those who didn’t get on the train, they’ll feel anxious and will either chase the entry or add some positions. The trapped holders from around 80,000 should also take the opportunity to reduce exposure. When emotions kick in, ETFs will also get slammed—so it’s basically FOMO. Those who missed out should consider going short, so each time it sets a new high, it’s like they’re pressing shorts again—one after another hitting new highs.

The remarks by Jack Horwell (at the 828 Jackson Hole—Washington) were actually within expectations. The only thing I didn’t expect was that it didn’t even manage to make a second new high and then fall immediately. Instead, during the speech there was a “heaven-and-earth needle”—that needle occurred right in the middle of the consolidation range. That’s playing the game! The entry price was wrong—both bulls and bears are idiots!

And my current view is: we’re already at a point very close to a somewhat larger pullback. Compared with the node on the chart I sent to AiJiao, there are slight changes.

The most annoying move would be: next week might first push to a new high, and then sell off. The target is to break directly through 755, with the sell-off potentially down to the 738–743 range.

The next round of上涨 needs to build up momentum. The selling pressure from those at a level above 80,000 has mostly already been digested. And the new upward catalyst may come from genuine expectations of rate cuts.

Earlier, the GDP 1.5 data came in shockingly weak, and the 8/28 employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls) was revised down—both of that actually laid the groundwork that the economy is bad and that a rate cut is needed. But the only thing missing is that the inflation target talked about by the Fed hasn’t been met. On 8/28, the market equated the so-called hawkish remarks with “rate hikes,” but I don’t think there’s a realistic chance of rate hikes. If there were rate hikes before or around the midterm elections, wouldn’t that blow everything up?

So my “hot take” conclusion is:
If next week or before the September FOMC, there’s some inexplicable pump or some inexplicable dump—once it reaches key levels, just trade against the move like you’ve got the right read 😂 Futures contracts can be traded that way; for spot, a pullback is actually an opportunity.

@BTB投研-中南 also send me a forecast of the trend again, so I can see where your prediction is wrong and point it out to him.

To be honest, I can’t see where it’s wrong. In any case, my conclusion is that the pullback should be completed at the end of September or early October, and then we start charging into the second wave. The key is, I somehow forgot how I derived this conclusion. My intelligence is not enough.

You guys look over this breakdown—what other problems are there?

Reviewing everything up to now—if it’s over, I don’t want to write it anymore. Today I’ll just relax and rest properly. The main problem is one thing: my mindset went wrong, which caused execution to go wrong, which then affected my mindset again, and round and round. The funniest part is that I somehow managed to operate the trade the wrong way and lost a few hundred in oil for trading fees. Adding a rule like maximum drawdown—stop trading after it reaches a certain level—would solve it.

Tonight at 9pm there will be a live stream. I haven’t prepared content, and I want to give myself a day off. The live stream will still analyze the market, answer everyone’s questions, and share some takeaways and experience. The lessons to cover are things I’ve already discussed in past streams—you can listen to the replays.

The market is still trending downward. For the big cake (BTC), I can see the rebound levels at 636 and 644. Let’s see when this month I’ll be able to catch a time when BTC is back in the 50s.

Yesterday, Junhong said he went to sing. (He hadn’t joined BTB research and trading yet when he first started interacting with us; since then he’s made tens of thousands—staying in Chongqing for 2 weeks, he probably made around 2,000 “oil.” I’ve always insisted that his wife should make money and withdraw it.) It was the day before yesterday or yesterday—I can’t remember. It should have been profitable. We had said so, but I made a mistake yesterday: I entered a long position late at night, and I had to watch the chart, so I didn’t go. It moved up, and I made some profit before I closed out. Today I’ll go sing. Only Zhongnan is free, so when I asked him, he said the team is streaming the Debris-style race for Zhang Xueji’s rider. We’ll finish in the evening; we’ll meet up then. I want to ask him properly about his recent trading. He’s been getting beaten up when advancing his trading lately—maybe because he’s been too smooth before. He’s basically been through the “trial,” and the difficulty has gone through enough; now it’s time to cross into a higher level. This means his ability to make money needs to take another step up.

As for Junhong making money—this isn’t me bragging that I’m awesome. It’s that he could realize that the money he made before was basically luck. After coming to Chongqing to study, the money he made is now based on real skill. No one can have good luck forever, but once your skills are solid, you can keep turning consistent profits.

Yesterday Junhong said he’d treat us. Today it’s my turn to treat—anyway, if I can’t hit it, I’ll just spend the 600 yuan living allowance in one go. For the second half of the month, we’ll eat steamed buns.

Alright, everyone, brothers—see you at the live stream tonight!