逐梦同行

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$BNB $BTC $ZEC
#比特币突破8万美元大关

The counterfeit season signal is heating up, but has not been fully confirmed yet ✅
Glassnode’s short-term indicators have crossed the counterfeit-season threshold. Excluding BTC, the total market cap for counterfeit season has seen impressive gains recently, while BTC dominance has started to ease.

⚠️Note: $BTC ’s dominance falling does not necessarily mean funds are selling BTC to enter counterfeit seasons. It may also simply indicate that the counterfeit season has been outperforming BTC’s rise.

Indicators are currently diverging: **short-term counterfeit season performance is strong, but the 90-day long-term counterfeit season index still hasn’t reached the confirmation line of 75—so it’s in a transition/preheating stage**.

The biggest variable this round: spot BTC‑ETF changes the old cycle logic. Institutional buying of BTC doesn’t necessarily mean capital will rotate into counterfeit seasons.

The real counterfeit season requires: BTC remaining stable, BTC dominance continuing to fall, counterfeit season market cap expanding, and a large number of counterfeit season assets consistently outperforming BTC.

Once BTC pulls back significantly, it will directly suppress overall risk appetite.

This is still not a complete counterfeit season, but the market is no longer a “Bitcoin solo act.”

#BTC走势分析 #altcoinseason

$BTC My current core market view

Currently, the price is trading above 80,000, and everyone is looking for the direction of the next phase of the market. Let me share my overall assessment of the current chart and the subsequent走势.

First, look at the short-term cycle (LTF): The market is about to enter the weekend. There are only 2 trading days left until the reversal pivot window (28–30 days).
Based on this, on Sunday there is a high probability of a liquidity-grab-style rally (pulling up to lure longs). This upward move may become the local high of this current rebound, and after Monday’s Asia session opens, the market should start to pull back.

Next, look at the long-term cycle (HTF): The market is currently near the end of the month.
There is an imbalance gap mFVG left in the market. It is very likely that before the next round of upward move, price will retrace to test that gap.
At the same time, the market is creating liquidity below (the areas below 78,000 and 75,000). This is a classic end-of-month playbook.
The purpose is to harvest the liquidity below first right after the new month’s candlestick opens, and then start the true main leg of the rally. The target is 95,000–100,000 USD.
#BTC走势分析 #贝莱德为Ondo开发代币化组合策略

$2.65 billion pours into Bitcoin ETFs—this may be the most critical signal of this market cycle $BTC

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered net inflows for five consecutive days, directly driving a sharp rise in the scale of capital entering the market in September. Meanwhile, the cumulative inflows for 2026 have turned from negative to positive within the year.

• Monday: $999 million

• Tuesday: $715 million

• Five-day total: $2.65 billion

BlackRock absorbed the vast majority of the buy orders.

On the market front, Bitcoin briefly surged and broke above $87,000, then quickly pulled back to below $84,000.

But the most worth paying attention to is this: even as the macro environment faces mounting pressure, ETF capital continues to flow in.
✅ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has spiked to around 5.2%
✅ Market expectations for the Fed to continue hiking in October remain high

It’s no longer a question of whether institutions are buying. The key issue now is: if interest rates keep moving higher, can this buying momentum continue?

If ETF demand remains resilient even under macro pressure, then this rebound is very likely just the beginning of a bigger trend.
At the moment, institutions seem to be quietly taking over sell pressure from retail investors.

#Bitcoin❗ #BTC走势分析 #BitcoinETFs #BlackRock⁩ #币安中秋登月计划

Woofun AI Message｜Bitwise Institutional Research: Down 50%, top institutions don’t sell BTC, and some add positions against the trend.
Bitwise interviewed 15 major institutions (donation funds, pension funds, family offices, etc., with total AUM over $9 billion). The research period was 2025.10–2026.4, during which the market saw a drawdown of about 50%.
✅ Key takeaways:

1. All institutions hold BTC and do not sell because of the drop; crypto allocations are mostly only 1%–2% of total assets

2. Institutions view BTC as digital gold; only a few are bullish on targets like ETH and SOL, concerned that execution may fall short of expectations

3. Divergence among institutions: Harvard’s endowment reduced its BTC ETF holdings by 43% in Q1; Abu Dhabi’s state-owned assets fund held steady in Q2

4. The main reason institutions limit adding positions is not the price, but issues related to institutional governance, compliance, and reputation
Bitwise’s view: a large portion of holdings is not publicly disclosed, so actual institutional positions are higher than what statistics show. In the next five years, institutions will likely continue to hold, and they are optimistic about BTC’s long-term store-of-value.
Current BTC price: $84,534
#比特币本周回落至约84600美元

Rising U.S. Treasury yields weigh on risk assets as BTC breaks below the 84,000 level

U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, putting broad pressure on global risk assets and dragging down the crypto market in tandem.

After probing the 87,300 high in this rally, Bitcoin quickly pulled back; it is currently trading near 83,900.

Coins are moving lower in a mixed pattern: DOGE has retreated sharply by about 8%, while XRP, ZEC, and HYPE are among the top decliners. Major coins like ETH, SOL, and BNB are all weakening together, with an overall pullback of roughly 2%–3%.

This adjustment is driven by a confluence of multiple macro bearish factors:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.11%. Combined with better-than-expected recovery in U.S. business activity data, an oil price rebound nearing $104, and weak demand at the five-year Treasury auction, the market’s liquidity conditions are further tightening.

In a high-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non–yielding risk assets has clearly declined. Ongoing tight financial conditions continue to suppress market leverage positions—this is the core trigger for the current crypto market pullback.

Worth noting: this Friday, BTC options worth roughly $14 billion will expire in a concentrated manner. With the coin price already falling below the key 85,000 strike level, short-term market volatility may remain elevated.

Key levels to watch in the near term: 85,000

• If the price holds above 85,000 on increased volume, the market structure will be repaired and bullish sentiment may recover

• If it continues to face pressure and fails to reclaim the level, BTC and the overall altcoin market will likely continue weak consolidation, with downward pressure persisting

The macro outlook is clearly bearish, market oscillations are intensifying, and traders should focus closely on the 85,000 support-resistance watershed between bulls and bears.

#BTC行情分析 #山寨币热点 #宏观解读 $ZEC

BTC｜Key Pivot 86800

Bitcoin is currently being capped below the overhead pressure ceiling. The next round of market movement will depend on whether this key level can be successfully broken through.

86800 is the core observation level.

Upward scenario:
If there is a valid breakout above 86800, the price may move up toward 87800;
with continued bullish momentum, further targeting 88900, and then attempting 90900.

Downward scenario:
If the level cannot be held, the first support to test is 85900;
once there is a valid breakdown, the downside targets are 85300 and then 82900.

Before a clear directional breakout occurs, the price is expected to oscillate within the 85900–86800 range.
In the short term, the focus is on 86800—an important signal for determining the direction of both bulls and bears.

#BTC走势分析 $BTC #比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高

We’ve already seen the signal, and Bitcoin is poised to break through the $90,000 mark.

To be honest, this day’s arrival was actually expected. The advantage of the bears won’t last forever. The bulls have long been gathering strength, waiting for the market to take the stage.

But don’t become complacent. The bears are still looking for opportunities to counterattack.

If the weekly close holds above the 50-week moving average, that’s the key confirmation signal. This situation has been quiet for 44 to 45 weeks, spanning a very long period.

When you zoom out and extend the candlestick timeframe, $BTC is moving toward $90,000 and even higher levels. This is not a false breakout designed to lure traders in—price action is playing out as expected.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC

Bitcoin breaks through key long-term resistance.
BTC’s weekly close this week is the first time in 45 weeks that it has moved above the 50-week moving average. The current price is about $81,000, with the 50-week moving average range at $78,100–$78,800.

Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research noted that historically, when BTC has reclaimed this level, it often corresponds to the bottom of a bear market.
Of 13 historical bear-market cycles in which BTC regained the 50-week moving average, only 2 times did it subsequently set a lower low again.
Currently, BTC is also holding above the 200-week moving average, which has been an important long-term support during past major bear markets.

Next, the key point to watch is whether BTC can continue to close weekly above the 50-week moving average, confirming that the market has entered its next phase.

Risk warning: This is only a replay of market data, and does not constitute any investment advice
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #以太坊突破2700美元