林淼
我是3年币圈选手林淼，专注测试网 & Alpha信息，不画大饼，只分享硬核撸毛攻略和市场行情。虽然是“嘴撸”王者，但信息整合能力一流，带你避坑抄近道。独撸撸不如众撸撸，关注我，一起交流进步，抱团发财！我的共赢邀请码：010904LIN真心共赢
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The sky didn't eat up, eat a lot of single
$BROCCOLI714
$BROCCOLI714
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Core Shifts in the Crypto Market Landscape in 2026
The current market turbulence may be part of this profound transformation. The general consensus among institutions is that the crypto market is undergoing structural changes:
1. The invalidation of the 'cyclical narrative': The traditional cyclical speculative logic represented by Bitcoin's 'four-year halving' is being weakened. Market drivers are shifting from retail sentiment to institutional allocation, regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomics.
2. From 'grand narrative' to 'value utility': Simply relying on the hype of concepts (like the widespread rise of Meme coins) is unsustainable. Funds will increasingly concentrate on leading projects that can generate cash flow, have real users, and possess a competitive moat.
1. The invalidation of the 'cyclical narrative': The traditional cyclical speculative logic represented by Bitcoin's 'four-year halving' is being weakened. Market drivers are shifting from retail sentiment to institutional allocation, regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomics.
2. From 'grand narrative' to 'value utility': Simply relying on the hype of concepts (like the widespread rise of Meme coins) is unsustainable. Funds will increasingly concentrate on leading projects that can generate cash flow, have real users, and possess a competitive moat.
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Close positions and sleep
Looking for opportunities to enter
Looking for opportunities to enter
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#ETH Always walking by the river, how can you not get your shoes wet? Why did ETH suddenly go up? What's the reason?
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#ETH If you have money, don't go to Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou; if you fall on hard times, you will definitely be empty in Ethereum
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ETHUSDT
Qtly 1226
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PNL
+0.38USDT
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Finally untangled, no more thoughts of going long on ETH in the future.
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ETHUSDT
Perp
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PNL
+0.21USDT
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#eth You little brat, do you dare to let me out of this? If you let me out, I will definitely short you. You are just like the incapable A Dou.
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This month has caused me a lot of losses. Who can handle this market? Dressed in yellow robes, a minister is looking for me. I need to handle some official business. You all play #亏成大傻逼了 .
My 30 Days' PNL
2025-11-16~2025-12-15
-$2,412.54
-99.53%
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$H You made me lose too badly. Just keep falling, hurry up and return to zero.
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$H Can I trust you? I hope you don't let me lose too badly🥹
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HUSDT
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PNL
-88.09%
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Bitcoin vs Gold: Which is the darling
#比特币VS代币化黄金
Gold: The anchor of the old system
Gold has been a consensus of value for humanity for thousands of years, and its status is deeply rooted in the traditional financial system.
The core function of gold is to hedge against global risks, currency depreciation (inflation), and geopolitical turmoil. When people lose confidence in fiat currency or political stability, gold is the preferred 'safe haven', regarded as the ultimate hedge and ballast. It is a physically existent tangible asset that does not rely on the credit of any country or institution, has no counterparty risk, and its value derives from its own scarcity and global recognition, making it a typical non-sovereign, debt-free asset. As a 'stabilizer' and 'insurance' of the old fiat currency system and global financial order, the price fluctuations of gold more reflect concerns about the stability of the existing system.
Gold: The anchor of the old system
Gold has been a consensus of value for humanity for thousands of years, and its status is deeply rooted in the traditional financial system.
The core function of gold is to hedge against global risks, currency depreciation (inflation), and geopolitical turmoil. When people lose confidence in fiat currency or political stability, gold is the preferred 'safe haven', regarded as the ultimate hedge and ballast. It is a physically existent tangible asset that does not rely on the credit of any country or institution, has no counterparty risk, and its value derives from its own scarcity and global recognition, making it a typical non-sovereign, debt-free asset. As a 'stabilizer' and 'insurance' of the old fiat currency system and global financial order, the price fluctuations of gold more reflect concerns about the stability of the existing system.
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#美联储重启降息步伐 Federal Reserve December interest rate meeting, the specific schedule and related information are as follows:
Meeting Schedule
· Meeting time: December 9 to 10, 2025 (two days).
· Decision announcement: December 11 at 3 AM Beijing time (Thursday).
· Chairman's speech: About 30 minutes after the decision announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference.
Core Highlights of the Meeting
1. Interest rate decision: The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut again. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expected probability has risen to nearly 90%. If realized, this will be the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut since September.
2. Internal disagreement: A prominent feature of this meeting is the severe internal disagreement within the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). About 5 voting members oppose or are skeptical about further rate cuts, and the final vote may see multiple dissenting votes.
3. Future policy guidance: The meeting will release the latest quarterly economic projections (SEP) and the "dot plot," revealing officials' forecasts for the interest rate path in 2026. The tone of Powell's speech at the press conference (whether "dovish" or "hawkish") will also be crucial.
4. Balance sheet direction: In addition to interest rates, how the Federal Reserve manages its large balance sheet (such as whether to announce a bond purchasing plan) is also a focus of market attention.
Potential Impact on Digital Currency
Combining previous concerns, the impact of this meeting will depend on the comparison between the final decision and market expectations and the future signals released by Powell.
· If a rate cut is made as scheduled and dovish signals are released, it may boost risk assets and provide short-term benefits for digital currencies.
· If the decision or statement is hawkish (for example, implying a pause in rate cuts in the future), it may dampen market sentiment and trigger volatility.
It is recommended to focus on the decision announcement and Powell's speech on December 11 at 3 AM Beijing time, as this will be key to judging the short-term market direction.
Meeting Schedule
· Meeting time: December 9 to 10, 2025 (two days).
· Decision announcement: December 11 at 3 AM Beijing time (Thursday).
· Chairman's speech: About 30 minutes after the decision announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference.
Core Highlights of the Meeting
1. Interest rate decision: The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut again. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expected probability has risen to nearly 90%. If realized, this will be the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut since September.
2. Internal disagreement: A prominent feature of this meeting is the severe internal disagreement within the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). About 5 voting members oppose or are skeptical about further rate cuts, and the final vote may see multiple dissenting votes.
3. Future policy guidance: The meeting will release the latest quarterly economic projections (SEP) and the "dot plot," revealing officials' forecasts for the interest rate path in 2026. The tone of Powell's speech at the press conference (whether "dovish" or "hawkish") will also be crucial.
4. Balance sheet direction: In addition to interest rates, how the Federal Reserve manages its large balance sheet (such as whether to announce a bond purchasing plan) is also a focus of market attention.
Potential Impact on Digital Currency
Combining previous concerns, the impact of this meeting will depend on the comparison between the final decision and market expectations and the future signals released by Powell.
· If a rate cut is made as scheduled and dovish signals are released, it may boost risk assets and provide short-term benefits for digital currencies.
· If the decision or statement is hawkish (for example, implying a pause in rate cuts in the future), it may dampen market sentiment and trigger volatility.
It is recommended to focus on the decision announcement and Powell's speech on December 11 at 3 AM Beijing time, as this will be key to judging the short-term market direction.
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The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on digital currencies
Tomorrow's interest rate decision hinges on the details of the policy path rather than whether or not to cut rates itself. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut, so the impact will depend on the subsequent signals released by the Federal Reserve.
Three possible scenarios and their impacts:
Scenario 1: Expected dovishness (slight positive impact)
The Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected and maintains its forecast of multiple cuts in 2026. This move will confirm an easing path, boosting market confidence. However, since this has been partially digested by the market, the upside potential for digital currencies may be limited and will require breaking through key resistance levels (such as the Bitcoin price range of $94,000-$98,000) to establish an upward trend.
Scenario 2: Unexpected dovishness (significant positive impact)
The Federal Reserve hints at a more aggressive or faster rate-cutting cycle. This would provide unexpected liquidity support to the market and could become a key catalyst for a strong rebound in digital currencies.
Scenario 3: Hawkish signals (significant negative impact)
This is the main risk. If the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation remains high and that the pace of future rate cuts will slow or pause, it will dampen market sentiment. Given the current market leverage, this could trigger panic selling and a chain of liquidations, leading to a significant price correction. #美联储重启降息步伐 #数字货币
Tomorrow's interest rate decision hinges on the details of the policy path rather than whether or not to cut rates itself. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut, so the impact will depend on the subsequent signals released by the Federal Reserve.
Three possible scenarios and their impacts:
Scenario 1: Expected dovishness (slight positive impact)
The Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected and maintains its forecast of multiple cuts in 2026. This move will confirm an easing path, boosting market confidence. However, since this has been partially digested by the market, the upside potential for digital currencies may be limited and will require breaking through key resistance levels (such as the Bitcoin price range of $94,000-$98,000) to establish an upward trend.
Scenario 2: Unexpected dovishness (significant positive impact)
The Federal Reserve hints at a more aggressive or faster rate-cutting cycle. This would provide unexpected liquidity support to the market and could become a key catalyst for a strong rebound in digital currencies.
Scenario 3: Hawkish signals (significant negative impact)
This is the main risk. If the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation remains high and that the pace of future rate cuts will slow or pause, it will dampen market sentiment. Given the current market leverage, this could trigger panic selling and a chain of liquidations, leading to a significant price correction. #美联储重启降息步伐 #数字货币
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Key Events of the Week and Their Impact Analysis
The following are key events that have occurred and will occur this week, which will impact the market from different dimensions:
Events and Time
Federal Reserve December interest rate decision
South Korea plans to legislate to strengthen exchange responsibilities
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade completed
APT, LINEA and other tokens large-scale unlocking
Binance official pushes for internal review amid controversy
Impact dimensions and directions
Macroeconomic Policy: High
Bearish: If interest rate cuts fail or are less than expected, it may hit the market.
Bullish: If a clear interest rate cut is announced, it will improve liquidity expectations.
Industry Regulation: High
Bearish: If passed, it will significantly increase exchange operating costs and risks, potentially suppressing market activity.
Events and Time
Federal Reserve December interest rate decision
South Korea plans to legislate to strengthen exchange responsibilities
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade completed
APT, LINEA and other tokens large-scale unlocking
Binance official pushes for internal review amid controversy
Impact dimensions and directions
Macroeconomic Policy: High
Bearish: If interest rate cuts fail or are less than expected, it may hit the market.
Bullish: If a clear interest rate cut is announced, it will improve liquidity expectations.
Industry Regulation: High
Bearish: If passed, it will significantly increase exchange operating costs and risks, potentially suppressing market activity.
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