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#Solana涨势分析 Solana (SOL) has recently seen strong upward momentum driven by multiple factors. Technically, its price reached $141.66 on January 12, 2026, with a daily increase of 3.84%. The short-term support level remains solid within the $130–140 range, but a breakout above the $150–160 resistance zone is needed to confirm a trend reversal. Fundamentally, the Firedancer upgrade will boost throughput to a million-level TPS, while the potential transaction volume of 10–15 billion USD from Western Union's USDPT stablecoin could significantly enhance network liquidity. Cumulative institutional ETF inflows have reached $476 million, and the competitive staking yield continues to attract long-term capital. However, short-term risks include spot fund outflows and macro market adjustments. If it holds key moving averages, the price could aim for a $200 target.

#美国非农数据低于预期 2025年12月美国非农就业新增5万人，显著低于预期的7万人，且前两月数据合计下修7.6万人，全年就业增长仅58.4万，创2020年以来新低。失业率意外降至4.4%，但主要因劳动力参与率下滑，实际就业动能仍显疲弱。分行业看，医疗保健、餐饮业支撑增长，而零售业岗位减少2.5万，显示消费需求降温。薪资同比增3.8%，高于通胀水平，但私营部门平均月增6.1万岗位，为2003年来最弱。尽管数据矛盾，失业率下降暂时缓解美联储降息压力，市场预计1月按兵不动，全年或降息50基点。经济呈现“无就业繁荣”特征，企业招聘放缓与裁员收缩并存，劳动力市场再平衡或加剧“K型分化。”} 2025年12月 U.S. non-farm employment increased by 50,000, significantly below the expected 70,000, and the combined revision for the previous two months reduced employment by 76,000. Annual job growth reached only 584,000, the lowest since 2020. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, but primarily due to a decline in labor force participation, indicating weak underlying employment momentum. By sector, healthcare and food services supported growth, while retail employment decreased by 25,000, signaling a cooling in consumer demand. Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding inflation, but private sector monthly job gains averaged only 61,000, the weakest since 2003. Despite contradictory data, the declining unemployment rate has temporarily eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Markets expect no rate change in January, with a potential 50 basis points of cuts expected for the year. The economy exhibits characteristics of a 'jobless prosperity,' with slowing hiring and ongoing layoffs, suggesting labor market rebalancing may deepen 'K-shaped' inequality.

#MSCI暂不排除数字资产财库公司 MSCI announced on January 7, 2026, that it will temporarily refrain from removing digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) from global indices, maintaining the current treatment. The organization stated that further research is needed to distinguish between "investment companies" and enterprises whose core assets are digital assets, and plans to initiate broader industry consultations to develop new evaluation criteria. This move alleviated market concerns about large-scale sell-offs by passive funds, with stocks of representative firms such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) rising over 6% in after-hours trading. MSCI emphasized that future additional assessment metrics based on financial statements may be introduced, while currently retaining companies with over 50% of total assets in digital assets within the indices. This decision marks a cautious shift in the traditional financial system's attitude toward crypto assets—neither fully embracing nor aggressively excluding them—providing the industry with a period to adapt to the regulatory framework.

#美国贸易逆差 The U.S. trade deficit is a product of contradictions in the global economic landscape and domestic economic structure. Its roots lie in the offshoring of manufacturing, a low-saving, high-consumption model, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Since the first deficit appeared in 1971, the U.S. has reduced production costs through industrial outsourcing, but this has led to a decline in manufacturing's share of GDP from 25% to 10%, exacerbating the hollowing out of industrial supply chains. A low savings rate (only 3.8% in 2024) combined with high consumer demand (accounting for 70% of GDP) forces reliance on imports, while the special status of the dollar as a global reserve currency makes the deficit an inevitable outcome for maintaining international liquidity.

Persistent deficits have dual impacts: on one hand, they enhance household welfare through cheap goods and capital inflows; on the other, they trigger manufacturing decline, social polarization, and debt risks. In 2024, the U.S. net foreign debt reached 67% of GDP, approaching a crisis threshold. Trump administration policies of imposing tariffs have proven ineffective, instead raising import costs and intensifying inflation, ultimately shifting the burden to consumers and businesses. Addressing the deficit requires structural reforms, including reducing fiscal deficits, promoting industrial upgrading, and stabilizing the dollar's value, rather than unilateral protectionism.

#MSCI暂不排除数字资产财库公司 MSCI announced on January 7, 2026, that it would temporarily refrain from removing digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) from global indices, maintaining the current approach. The organization stated that further research is needed to distinguish between 'investment companies' and enterprises whose core assets are digital assets, and it plans to initiate broader consultations to develop new evaluation criteria. This move avoided the risk of forced fund sell-offs for companies represented by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose stock rose over 6% in after-hours trading. MSCI emphasized that reaching market consensus on distinguishing companies holding non-operational assets remains essential, and future adjustments to index inclusion rules may be considered.

#MSCI暂不排除数字资产财库公司 MSCI announced on January 7, 2026, that it would temporarily refrain from removing digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) from the global investable market index. Companies with digital assets exceeding 50% of their total assets (such as Strategy Inc.) will maintain their current index treatment. This move aims to buy time to study how to distinguish between 'investment-type' and 'operating-type' firms and plans to initiate broader consultations to establish new evaluation criteria (such as financial statement metrics). The market reacted positively, with Strategy's stock rising over 6% after hours, and the short-term risk of passive fund selling pressure eased. MSCI emphasized that future adjustments to inclusion factors and new additions for such companies might be restricted. Industry observers believe this decision reflects a cautious stance by the traditional financial system toward the integration of digital assets.

#比特币2026年价格预测 Bitcoin price forecast for 2026 shows significant divergence: The bullish camp believes expanding institutional demand and regulatory clarity will drive prices to new all-time highs, with JPMorgan's model predicting a theoretical peak of $170,000, while Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and others have revised their targets down to $150,000, and Ripple CEO has a more aggressive forecast, suggesting prices could reach $180,000–$200,000; cautious perspectives highlight technical correction risks, with Fidelity noting that if following the four-year cycle, prices might drop to $65,000–$70,000, while CryptoQuant predicts a possible mid-term decline to $56,000; extremely bearish views, such as Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone's warning, suggest a potential plunge to $10,000. Market consensus holds that the key variables will be the sustainability of ETF inflows, macroeconomic policies, and on-chain supply-demand dynamics, with actual movement likely falling within a broad range of $70,000 to $250,000.

#ETH巨鲸动向 According to recent on-chain data, the movements of Ethereum whales show significant divergence and strategy adjustments. The Hyperunit Whale account has a long ETH position floating profit close to $70 million, with a total holding cost of about $636 million, indicating a phase of renewed market confidence in ETH. Meanwhile, the anonymous whale "0x46DB" has been continuously increasing its ETH holdings since December 2025, accumulating 51,374 ETH (worth $160 million), with an average cost of $3,110, creating a subtle game against the current price of $3,100. Notably, some whales choose to arbitrage and adjust their holdings, such as a certain address exchanging 21,973 ETH for WBTC, worth $68.9 million, reflecting cross-asset allocation demand. Currently, the long position in the ETH derivatives market accounts for 70%, with an estimated leverage ratio of 0.611 reaching an all-time high, indicating that high-leverage speculation is exacerbating price volatility risks. Despite short-term liquidation pressure, the continued accumulation behavior of whales may indicate medium to long-term bullish expectations.

#比特币2026年价格预测 Bitcoin's price in 2026 may welcome a key breakthrough. After the halving in 2024, supply will tighten, coupled with rising institutional allocation demand and continuous capital inflow from spot ETFs, reinforcing the long-term bullish logic. If the macro environment warms up (such as the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates) and the technical ecosystem improves, it may challenge historical highs. The market consensus generally sees it rising to $100,000 - $300,000, with extremely optimistic scenarios possibly exceeding $400,000. However, one must be wary of risks such as tightened regulations and liquidity fluctuations, as the price still holds uncertainties.

#加密市场观察 The encryption market has recently intensified, with Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuating around the $90,000 mark, and the supply-demand game heating up after the halving; the Ethereum ecosystem is active, with Layer 2 locking volume exceeding $30 billion, and DeFi innovation and iteration accelerating. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with BlackRock's spot ETF holdings exceeding 100,000 BTC. However, regulatory uncertainties remain, as some countries tighten compliance requirements. In the short term, sentiment-driven, but in the long term, attention needs to be paid to technology implementation and mainstream adoption.

#Strategy增持比特币 Strategic incremental investment in Bitcoin should be based on long-term logic and discipline. In the current market volatility, attention can be given to phased layout opportunities when it pulls back to key support levels (such as 30,000 USD), combined with fundamental signals like the halving cycle and institutional holding data. Adhere to a regular investment model to smooth costs, keeping the position control within 10%-15% of total assets to avoid excessive leverage. The core is to use spare money to participate, exchanging time for space, capturing the scarcity and anti-inflation potential of digital assets, while maintaining keen tracking of regulatory dynamics.

#迷因币ETF Meme Coin ETF is a financial instrument that tracks the performance of popular meme coins (such as DOGE, SHIB), providing investors with a low-threshold way to participate in the cryptocurrency market. These ETFs reduce the risk of a single coin by diversifying holdings while retaining the profit potential brought by high volatility. It should be noted that meme coins are easily influenced by social media sentiment, experience significant price fluctuations, and the regulatory environment is still unclear, so investors should fully understand the risks and rationally allocate their assets.

#Strategy增持比特币 The current fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are intensifying, making it a good time to strategically increase Bitcoin holdings. As 'digital gold', its scarcity (a total of 21 million coins) and anti-inflation properties are becoming more pronounced, especially with the upcoming halving cycle in 2024, which may lead to supply contraction and price elasticity. Institutional funds are continuously entering the market (such as the approval of ETFs), strengthening long-term consensus. It is recommended to adopt a phased investment strategy, controlling the proportion of positions, to avoid short-term volatility risks, and to seize opportunities in digital asset allocation over a 3-5 year period.

#美联储FOMC会议 The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting focuses on the direction of monetary policy, with the latest decision maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, continuing a tightening tone. The statement emphasizes that the return of inflation to the 2% target still needs verification, and the resilience of the labor market supports expectations of a soft landing for the economy. Powell stated that adjustments will be 'data-driven,' and market disagreements on the timing of interest rate cuts have intensified. This meeting reaffirms the determination to combat inflation while leaving room for policy flexibility, with U.S. stocks showing concerns about slowing growth amidst volatility.

#BinanceABCs Binance ABCs: A leading global digital asset trading platform that integrates diverse services such as spot trading, contracts, and wealth management. With high liquidity and top-notch security (90% of assets stored in cold wallets) as core advantages, it covers over a thousand types of crypto assets. The interface is user-friendly, and the app is easy to operate, equipped with real-time market data and advanced tools; includes free courses from Binance Academy to help beginners get started. 24/7 customer service responds quickly, with a broad compliance layout, making it the preferred entry point for users to embrace the crypto ecosystem.

#美SEC代币化股票交易计划 The US SEC plans to promote a tokenized stock trading program, exploring the issuance and trading of traditional stocks in the form of blockchain. This program may allow compliant brokers to provide tokenized stock services through on-chain platforms, improving settlement efficiency, reducing costs, while strengthening investor protection and anti-money laundering regulation. This move is seen as a key attempt to balance financial innovation and risk prevention, with the potential to drive the digital transformation of the capital market, but it is necessary to improve supporting rules such as pricing and custody.

#特朗普家族币 The Trump family coins are mostly unofficial cryptocurrency projects that leverage his IP, often attracting supporters with Trump's influence. Such coins are mostly issued by third parties and focus on "political sentiment" or "wealth opportunities," but lack official endorsement, making their prices susceptible to public opinion manipulation and highly volatile. Some projects have been delisted due to compliance disputes, and investors need to be wary of speculation, rationally distinguishing between celebrity effects and the essence of cryptocurrency assets, and guarding against risks.

#美联储回购协议计划 The Federal Reserve's repurchase agreement is its core tool for adjusting short-term liquidity. During operations, the Federal Reserve buys government bonds and other securities from traders and agrees to repurchase in the future (reverse repurchase), which essentially is short-term lending that releases funds; at maturity, securities are sold to recover funds (reverse repurchase). When market funds are tight or excessive, precise adjustments are made through reverse and reverse repurchases to stabilize interest rate fluctuations and maintain financial stability, which is an important regulatory tool during both normal and crisis times.

#美国讨论BTC战略储备 Recently, there has been heated discussion in the American political and business circles about incorporating Bitcoin into the national strategic reserves, attracting global attention. This move is seen as a new attempt to address inflation and challenges to the dollar system, with Bitcoin viewed as 'digital gold.' If implemented, it could strengthen the U.S.'s influence in the digital finance field, encourage multiple countries to follow suit, and intensify fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The discussions are still in the early stages, but they signify a shift of sovereign nations' recognition of crypto assets from the periphery to the core, potentially reshaping the future international financial landscape.

#比特币流动性 Bitcoin liquidity refers to its ability to be bought and sold quickly without significantly impacting the price, primarily looking at trading volume and order book depth. Major exchanges have a daily trading volume exceeding 10 billion, with sufficient depth, and ordinary small transactions have almost no slippage. Institutional entry (such as ETFs and custodians) and the development of the derivatives market further enhance liquidity. However, in extreme market conditions, large sell-offs may trigger short-term exhaustion, exacerbating volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is considered a high liquidity asset, but there are still structural risks.