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BTC $76K. From $60K to $78K, it rose by 30%, then fell back from $78K to $73.7K, and is now back at $76K. The three price levels drawn are not trend lines, but a narrowing triangle.

The trading volume is telling a story: during the rebound phase, it was 25,000 BTC, during the pullback phase it shrank to 8,000, and today it is back to 17,000. Both bulls and bears are tugging back and forth between $73K and $78K, neither side can kill the other.

Trump supports self-custody, BlackRock says $BTC is valuable, Schwab is ready to launch trading. Three positive factors stacked together, but the price hasn’t moved. If the good news doesn’t come out completely, it won’t rise—this rule hasn’t changed since last year.

In cash. Ten times harder than holding positions.

Holding positions only requires one decision: when to sell. Being in cash requires constantly making two decisions: whether to buy and when to buy. Every candlestick challenges your judgment. If it rises, the feeling of missing out bites you like an ant. If it falls, the feeling of greed whispers in your ear "it's cheaper."

BTC at $76K is like a casino waiting for you to make a mistake. It’s not in a hurry to rise or fall; it’s just there, waiting for you to lose patience.

When you lose patience, you will do foolish things. The most foolish things I did during last year's bull market were all done when I couldn't wait any longer.

Brothers, have you missed out? Anxiety 🍌🟢

BTC surged more than 4.5% this morning, breaking through $74,000!
This wave of Asian early session rebound can be described as a "fourfold resonance": capital + macro + geopolitics + regulation all working together!

The most direct driving force is the huge buying by exchanges:
Binance purchased 29k+ $BTC , Coinbase 20k+ BTC, etc., totaling over 25,000 BTC (approximately $2.5 billion)!
MicroStrategy added another 13,927 BTC ($1 billion), the spot ETF saw a net inflow of $470 million in one day, and institutions are entering with real money.

Macro favorable: The U.S. CPI core inflation at 2.6% is below expectations, and the Federal Reserve has a 98% probability of holding steady in April, with risk sentiment quickly recovering. The fear and greed index skyrocketed to mild greed in 24 hours.
Geopolitical easing: Iran proposed a 5-year suspension of nuclear activities and is willing to dialogue with the U.S., reducing the risk of the Hormuz crisis, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" attributes are showing their power.
Regulatory support: The SEC has granted a 5-year safe harbor for crypto wallets, no need to register as a broker immediately, significantly lowering compliance thresholds.

Technically breaking through 72K-73K, short squeeze liquidated 427 million short positions, amplifying the gains.
Short-term focus on today's PPI, April 16 negotiations, and ETF inflows. If it stabilizes above 74K, it could challenge 76K+.
The volatility of this crypto market really makes my heart a bit uneasy, DYOR, can we still invest rationally...

Not in the car, I smack my thigh, ah ah ah

Brothers,
$BTC
has now dropped to 71k. Yesterday, the market was still discussing "Will the Bitcoin ETF bring about a new bull market?" Now it has turned into a panic of "Should we buy the dip?"

The most ironic thing is that when everyone is shouting "It can't drop any further," the market gives you the loudest slap in the face. Support levels are being broken time and again, and every rebound has become an opportunity to flee.

Those holding positions start to comfort themselves with "long-term value," while those without positions keep looking for entry points, but everyone knows that in this market, the hardest thing is not to judge whether it will rise or fall, but to admit that you might be wrong.

In this market, the most dangerous signal is not the price itself, but the moment when everyone feels they have found the pattern.

Don't panic, hold your faith, and get ready to jump in!

This morning at around three o'clock, $BTC surged to $73,790—this is the highest point in the past 24 hours. Then it started to decline all the way down, slamming to $71,310 in the afternoon, and now it's hovering around $71,700. From the early morning high, it has pulled back about $2,088, close to 2.8%.

The trigger for the market crash was not a technical breakdown, nor was it a sudden large redemption from ETFs— it was Vance's announcement in Pakistan: negotiations with Iran lasted for 21 hours but ended without agreement.

After the news broke, the logic chain in the market became very clear: no agreement → ceasefire remains undecided → tension in the Strait of Hormuz → rising oil price risks → high Beta assets under pressure. BTC, being the most sensitive risk asset, was the first to fall. Some have calculated that this drop is about 1.8%, with a visible correlation to oil price fluctuations. Vance himself bluntly stated: this is not random weekend volatility.

However, the sentiment on Twitter has split into two factions.

One faction shouts, "The best buying zone of this cycle has arrived," and brings up historical data: after the buying zone in 2018, it increased 17 times, and after the buying zone in 2022, it increased 6.6 times. The logic is that every time such a level of geopolitical panic creates a bottom, looking back, it's always free money. Data on accounts that have held for more than 3 years showing profit probability has also been dug up—time is on the side of holders.

The other faction points out that BTC has just broken below a 6-month trend line, and the narrative differences between logarithmic and linear charts have been brought to the forefront. Some even say, "Bitcoin is returning to its real value, close to zero." This kind of voice appears every time there is a pullback, like a pendulum.

Another noteworthy angle: there are reports from Iran that they hope to use Bitcoin for payments. Sanctions, censorship, confiscation—when fiat currency can be weaponized, the value of a decentralized settlement layer is no longer an academic discussion. The phrase, "Fiat needs faith, Bitcoin only needs mathematics," has been repeatedly quoted today. Jimmy Carr also publicly referred to BTC as the "new gold standard."

What do I think? In the short term, it will indeed be driven by geopolitical events, and market participants have already priced in the risks of the failure of the Iran nuclear negotiations. But from a longer perspective, the position of $71,700, viewed in a halving cycle, whether it is a top or bottom depends on how long a ruler you use to measure.

Yesterday, I closed a long position on BTC at $72,703, +629%.

This morning, while scrolling through Twitter, I saw that a whale bought 61,000 BTC in the last 30 days, and the ETF had a net inflow of $786 million this week, with BlackRock seeing $269 million in a single day. Institutions are frantically buying the dip, while I'm sitting on the sidelines.

It's a lie to say I'm not anxious. $BTC now at $73,130, just $400 away from my closing price. If it spikes to $80K tomorrow, I would have missed the last segment of the rise for nothing.

But I remember one thing: on the day I opened my position on April 7, BTC dropped from $68,000 to $66,000, with a floating loss of 81% on 100x leverage. At that moment, I was staring at the screen, with only one thought in my mind—"Why should I hold on?".

If I hadn't held on that day, I wouldn't have seen the subsequent +629%. But if I continue to hold at $73,000, and it retraces to $60K, the same script would play out in reverse.

Sitting on the sidelines isn't missing out. It’s choosing not to participate in a segment where you can't bear the volatility.

The $786 million ETF inflow won't disappear just because I'm on the sidelines. The whale's 61,000 BTC won't depreciate just because I'm not in the game. They will rise, they will fall, they will fluctuate, while I sit on the sidelines, waiting at my own pace for the next $66,000.

Those who miss out are most anxious not when prices are rising, but when they look back after the price has risen. So I'm not looking right now. I'll come back when the fear index is at 8.

My $BTC long position was stopped out and closed.

Closing price $72,703, opening price $68,311, 100x leverage, profit +376.69, profit rate +629%.

Opened on April 7, it fell to $66,000 on the same day, with an unrealized loss of 81%. I didn't exit. Then came the ceasefire, toll fees, and legislative pushes, BTC surged to $73,000.

I set a stop loss last night. It wasn't that I was bearish, but because everyone was shouting $80K, the fear and greed index was at 15, and analysts were drawing charts proving "this time it's different," I remembered the spring of 2022—when everyone was saying the same thing, and then BTC dropped from $48,000 to $15,800.

After the stop loss was triggered, BTC barely moved, at $72,782. Some said I would regret it. Maybe. But with a 100x leverage position, the difference between $73,000 and $65,000 isn't "a little less profit," it's "everything goes to zero."

I chose to leave, not because I don't believe in BTC. Quite the opposite—because I believe too much—I believe it will be highly volatile, so I must leave myself with chips to get back in the game.

$BTC Evening Snapshot 📸

Current Price $70,600, 24h Drop 1.19%, High-Low $71,964 / $70,466, 24h Transaction $10.3 Billion.

After two consecutive days of rebound, it faces resistance and falls back. A few days ago, BTC once returned above $71,500 (weekly increase of nearly 5%, hitting a three-week high), but bullish momentum has significantly weakened, short-term pressure is evident.

Market Sentiment: Bearish. Bullish sentiment is only 30%, buying momentum is weak. Long-term holders continue to accumulate (over 4.37 million BTC accumulated in 2023), but short-term speculation is weak.

Macro Factors are the Core Variables:
🔸 The US-Iran situation continues to heat up, crude oil breaks $110, geopolitical risk premium is transmitted to the crypto market
🔸 The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma—lowering interest rates stimulates inflation, while raising rates suppresses the economy, with stagflation shadows looming
🔸 BTC's next directional move is not in the crypto circle, but between Washington and Tehran

Capital Situation: Strategy continues to increase positions, planning to hold 2 million BTC by 2027. Institutional accumulation logic remains unchanged, but retail confidence is insufficient.

Short-term Outlook: $70,000 is a key psychological support. If it holds, it is expected to challenge the $72,000 range again; if it breaks, there is strong support around $67,000 below. Currently in a tug-of-war period between bulls and bears, waiting is the best approach.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

BTC $71,040（-1.08%），成交量 $13.99 billion（reduced volume）

Today's biggest variable：

• 🇮🇷 Iran demands to use
$BTC
to pay for the Strait of Hormuz toll——if confirmed, this is a significant real demand for BTC as a means of payment
• On the day of the ceasefire, ETF saw an inflow of $471 million, "the scariest day actually saw funds flowing in"
• BTC average mining cost $77,193, far higher than the current price——miners are at a loss

Support at $70.7K / $69K, resistance at $72K / $75K. After digesting the positive effects of the ceasefire, the market is on hold, waiting for Iran's BTC charging policy to be confirmed.

Positions are the same as yesterday, no actions taken, just watching the changes...

BTC currently reports $72,321, 24h +5.37%, rebounding nearly $5K from yesterday's low of $67,732, having reached a recent high of $72,761. In yesterday's tweet, I said $72K is the upper boundary of the range, and now we have reached it.

PlanB switched to the "Drawdown / ATH" indicator last night, concluding that the next bull market will reach new highs, but BTC will first drop deeper. Willy Woo also warned that the bear market is not over yet. Grant Cardone bought about 2000 BTC at an average price of $92K, now facing a floating loss of about $40 million—public companies and sovereign holders have begun to reduce their holdings.

More concerning is the revelation from CryptoNobler: BlackRock has begun to sell off crypto assets before the US stock market opens. If true, the world's largest ETF issuer is reducing its holdings—this undermines confidence more than the price itself.

However, today's rebound cannot be ignored. $BTC surged from $65K to nearly $69K in 1.5 hours, exploding $80 million in short positions, and now pushing further above $72K. 24h trading volume is $1.6 billion, funding rate -0.0106% (neutral to bearish), Fear & Greed index 13 (extreme fear).

In Iran, Finance Freeman bluntly stated: "BTC needs to wait until the US stock market completes its sell-off and the Iran war ends before the Clarity Act can take effect." There are no catalysts in the short term.

LLM judgment:
$72K-$73K is a strong short-term resistance, the upper boundary of the $64K-$72K range mentioned last night has been tested.
If it stabilizes above $72K and breaks through $73K with volume, it may open a new round of increase to $78K (cy clop's prediction).
If it falls back from $72K, $67.7K (this morning's low) is short-term support, breaking below looks at $64.8K (about $2.5 billion long liquidation line).
ETF net inflow this week is only $22.6 million (vs. $1.32 billion in March), funds have not returned.
The extreme fear range usually corresponds to a mid-term bottom, but the signal of "first dropping deeper" has not been falsified.
$72K is a watershed: breaking through reverses the narrative, falling back continues to explore the bottom. Do not guess the direction, wait for signals.

---
On the previous position, opened at 67436, closed at 68600, made a small profit of 95u.
Opened a new position, average opening price 68311, let's hold on for now.

Trump said Iran "could be taken down tomorrow", and he will speak on the situation this afternoon. Wintermute has already started selling BTC on Binance during low liquidity periods, citing "failure of the agreement".

Key signals:
1️⃣ Iran continues to collect cryptocurrency tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and de-dollarization has already been implemented.
2️⃣ Binance/Coinbase/Bybit continue to buy during non-trading hours, institutions are rushing to anticipate certain expectations.
3️⃣ Trump is making strong statements while hinting that the agreement may be reached by "Tuesday", sending extremely mixed signals.
4️⃣ Wintermute's selling may just be normal market-making behavior during low liquidity periods, packaged as a panic narrative.

The two extreme narratives in the current market - "agreement reached leads to a surge" and "war escalation leads to a crash" - are unlikely to occur. The real alpha is not in directional prediction but in structural changes: cryptocurrencies have substantively entered the settlement layer of national-level geopolitical games. Charging in the Strait of Hormuz is not news; it is the new baseline.

$BTC short-term range: $66K-$72K, volatility will continue to amplify until Trump speaks this afternoon. Those trading directionally within this range are all noise trades; the real bet should be on the long-term validation of the narrative "cryptocurrency as a sovereign settlement tool".

On April 6th, at 5 AM, while I was fast asleep, BTC stealthily rose from 67,000 to 69,000!
From the K-line, it's very interesting, forming a pit shape!
Brothers, what does it mean? Is bottom fishing equivalent to jumping into the pit? I c
What act is being played out now? It's not a technical rebound, but a resonance of geopolitical factors + financial conditions?

🔑 There are three core catalysts:

1️⃣ Countdown to the Iran agreement
Trump personally told Barak Ravid: Reach an agreement by Tuesday, or "blow everything up". The market is betting on the agreement being reached. Once a ceasefire is achieved = a sharp drop in geopolitical risks = risk assets go wild. Last time Trump said "2-3 weeks to resolve Iran", BTC directly broke 68,000.

2️⃣ The three major exchanges are frantically buying
Last night, Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit started buying $BTC non-stop before the US market opened, with millions of dollars worth in just a few minutes. This accumulation by exchanges is not retail behavior; it’s institutions racing ahead.

3️⃣ Iran is really using Bitcoin
Bloomberg analysts said live: The Iranian military is using BTC to buy weapons and oil, the Strait of Hormuz charges tolls directly in BTC, and even taxes are accepted in Bitcoin. USDT and USDC can be frozen with a phone call (Tether froze 4.2 billion), but Bitcoin has no CEO, no freeze button. This narrative is shifting from "concept" to "reality".

💡 Why now?
For the past week, BTC has been hovering around 67,000, with heavy short positions. The Iranian missile response + Trump's speech pushed the price to the lower end of the range, then—sudden warming of agreement expectations + massive accumulation by exchanges = perfect short squeeze conditions.

⚠️ Risk Warning:
Trump's original words were "deal possible by Tuesday", not "deal confirmed". If talks break down on Tuesday, he said he would "blow up everything". By then, whether 69,000 can hold, I remain cautious.

But at this moment, the market is voting with real money: the longer the war lasts, the more the world needs Bitcoin.

Staring at the screen for an entire day, let me speak a few truths.

The situation in Iran is reshaping everything.

The discussions on Twitter these days have shifted from "Will there be a war?" to "To what extent will there be a war?" Several key signals compel me to pay attention:

🔴 Trump's narrative on Iran is collapsing
The impeachment probability has soared to 73%. The Iran deal has collapsed → the market plummeted → he publicly stated he wants to "take Iran's oil." This is not a threat; this is telling the market: the bill for war is coming.

🔴 $BTC is now stuck in a very delicate position
$62,845, up about 3% in 24h, but don't be fooled by this number. The fear and greed index has dropped to the 20-30 range — extreme fear. $250M+ in liquidations. Both bulls and bears are betting: escalation of war or negotiation?

🔴 The tweet that kept me awake
A Bloomberg analyst said live: The Iranian military is using Bitcoin and cryptocurrency to purchase weapons and oil, even accepting BTC tax payments in the Strait of Hormuz.

What does this mean? Sanctions are failing. Cryptocurrency has become the new battlefield of geopolitical games.

🔴 VanEck (managing $180 billion) said on CNBC
▎ "The U.S. will print a lot of money for the war in Iran, and this bill will have to be paid sooner or later — and Bitcoin will soar as a result."

They are not just making a call; they are describing a mechanism: War financing = fiat currency depreciation = BTC benefits. History has repeatedly verified this.

🔴 Oil prices are already screaming
Since the escalation of the situation in Iran:
Aviation fuel +95%
WTI crude oil +66%
Brent crude oil +50%
Diesel +49%

Gasoline prices in the U.S. have reached $126 a gallon. Ordinary people are paying the price for geopolitical issues, while crypto traders are betting on the next direction.

🔴 Here's a fun fact
The cost for Iran to mine one BTC is about **$1,300**, and it was sold at market price the same day. During the 27 days when the U.S. bombed their power grid, BTC actually rose from $71K to $74K. After Trump paused the strikes, the miners resumed operations, and selling pressure returned.

My judgment?

In the short term, uncertainty is the biggest enemy. BTC will fluctuate violently in the $62K-$68K range until there is a clear turning point in the Iranian situation — either a ceasefire agreement or full-scale war.

But in the medium to long term? If the money printing logic that VanEck described holds, every geopolitical crisis serves as free advertising for BTC: "When the fiat currency system goes out of control due to war, there is an alternative that doesn't participate in the game."

In the morning, I went to buy fried dough sticks, and the price went up. I said, "Boss, why did it go up again?"

The boss sighed, "The oil prices have gone up."

I couldn't help but laugh out loud, "Are you frying them with gasoline?"

The boss smiled bitterly while flipping the fried dough sticks and said, "Young man, haven't you seen the news? There's a heated conflict between Iran and the US and Israel, missiles are flying back and forth in the Strait of Hormuz, and 20% of the world's oil can't be transported here. Brent crude has directly broken $100! Although our fried dough sticks are not fried with gasoline, all the oil is imported, and the costs follow the international oil prices."

An elderly man nearby shouted, "But didn't Trump say the war would be over soon?"

The boss handed me the bag of fried dough sticks and said, "As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not completely open, oil prices won't come down! My $BTC , it has been fluctuating around 66,000 these days, making my mood unsettled."

I was astonished, what? The old man is trading cryptocurrency too?

The old man shook his head. If he wasn't trading cryptocurrency, he wouldn't be frying dough sticks here. Remember, contracts can be liquidated!

Local time on April 3, the spokesperson for the Central Command of Iran's Armed Forces, Khatam al-Anbiya, stated that after the United States released false statements claiming that "Iran's air defense system has been completely destroyed," U.S. military aircraft were shot down in Iran by a newly developed advanced air defense system.

This air defense system is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran and is under the control of the national integrated air defense network.

On that day, a U.S. F-15E fighter jet crashed in Iran, and the U.S. military quickly dispatched several aircraft to search for 2 crew members, with 1 person currently found.

According to U.S. media reports, in another incident on the same day, a U.S. A-10 attack aircraft was again hit by Iran, and the pilot ejected and escaped.

2 Black Hawk helicopters involved in the mission to search for the crashed U.S. F-15E fighter jet encountered Iranian fire, and although they were hit, they ultimately successfully withdrew from Iranian airspace.

Today $BTC broke 67,000, not bad, it seems to have some support at the bottom?

I stared at the signature on the ancient scroll, contemplating the absolute nature of power. The mottled marks on it were once the symbol of absolute power. In the era of decentralization, as I completed the @SignOfficial certification on the chain, a wonderful sense of transcendence arose. This was no longer the drying of ink but the eternal existence of hash values, transforming individual will into an indelible digital totem, allowing promises to shine brightly in the sea of Bitcoin, profoundly witnessing the great evolution of human cooperation from physical to virtual.
We are in an era of severe trust deficit, where truth becomes fragmented and elusive. However, $SIGN attempts to build a bridge to certainty, transcending technical parameters and touching the philosophical essence of social contracts. By deeply binding intent with assets, it allows us to clearly see that in future geopolitical competition, the core is no longer an arms race but the game of establishing standards of trust, a silent yet deadly contest.
The grand vision of #Sign地缘政治基建 is to establish a new order in the chaotic digital wilderness. This is not only an innovation of infrastructure but also a profound awakening in the understanding of human cooperation. When trust is quantified, circulated, and confirmed, we possess the strongest weapon against uncertainty. At the critical juncture where the virtual and the real intertwine, only by building a solid foundation of trust can the sparks of civilization continue to thrive, guiding us towards a brighter future.