This morning at around three o'clock, $BTC surged to $73,790—this is the highest point in the past 24 hours. Then it started to decline all the way down, slamming to $71,310 in the afternoon, and now it's hovering around $71,700. From the early morning high, it has pulled back about $2,088, close to 2.8%.
The trigger for the market crash was not a technical breakdown, nor was it a sudden large redemption from ETFs— it was Vance's announcement in Pakistan: negotiations with Iran lasted for 21 hours but ended without agreement.
After the news broke, the logic chain in the market became very clear: no agreement → ceasefire remains undecided → tension in the Strait of Hormuz → rising oil price risks → high Beta assets under pressure. BTC, being the most sensitive risk asset, was the first to fall. Some have calculated that this drop is about 1.8%, with a visible correlation to oil price fluctuations. Vance himself bluntly stated: this is not random weekend volatility.
However, the sentiment on Twitter has split into two factions.
One faction shouts, "The best buying zone of this cycle has arrived," and brings up historical data: after the buying zone in 2018, it increased 17 times, and after the buying zone in 2022, it increased 6.6 times. The logic is that every time such a level of geopolitical panic creates a bottom, looking back, it's always free money. Data on accounts that have held for more than 3 years showing profit probability has also been dug up—time is on the side of holders.
The other faction points out that BTC has just broken below a 6-month trend line, and the narrative differences between logarithmic and linear charts have been brought to the forefront. Some even say, "Bitcoin is returning to its real value, close to zero." This kind of voice appears every time there is a pullback, like a pendulum.
Another noteworthy angle: there are reports from Iran that they hope to use Bitcoin for payments. Sanctions, censorship, confiscation—when fiat currency can be weaponized, the value of a decentralized settlement layer is no longer an academic discussion. The phrase, "Fiat needs faith, Bitcoin only needs mathematics," has been repeatedly quoted today. Jimmy Carr also publicly referred to BTC as the "new gold standard."
What do I think? In the short term, it will indeed be driven by geopolitical events, and market participants have already priced in the risks of the failure of the Iran nuclear negotiations. But from a longer perspective, the position of $71,700, viewed in a halving cycle, whether it is a top or bottom depends on how long a ruler you use to measure.
The trigger for the market crash was not a technical breakdown, nor was it a sudden large redemption from ETFs— it was Vance's announcement in Pakistan: negotiations with Iran lasted for 21 hours but ended without agreement.
After the news broke, the logic chain in the market became very clear: no agreement → ceasefire remains undecided → tension in the Strait of Hormuz → rising oil price risks → high Beta assets under pressure. BTC, being the most sensitive risk asset, was the first to fall. Some have calculated that this drop is about 1.8%, with a visible correlation to oil price fluctuations. Vance himself bluntly stated: this is not random weekend volatility.
However, the sentiment on Twitter has split into two factions.
One faction shouts, "The best buying zone of this cycle has arrived," and brings up historical data: after the buying zone in 2018, it increased 17 times, and after the buying zone in 2022, it increased 6.6 times. The logic is that every time such a level of geopolitical panic creates a bottom, looking back, it's always free money. Data on accounts that have held for more than 3 years showing profit probability has also been dug up—time is on the side of holders.
The other faction points out that BTC has just broken below a 6-month trend line, and the narrative differences between logarithmic and linear charts have been brought to the forefront. Some even say, "Bitcoin is returning to its real value, close to zero." This kind of voice appears every time there is a pullback, like a pendulum.
Another noteworthy angle: there are reports from Iran that they hope to use Bitcoin for payments. Sanctions, censorship, confiscation—when fiat currency can be weaponized, the value of a decentralized settlement layer is no longer an academic discussion. The phrase, "Fiat needs faith, Bitcoin only needs mathematics," has been repeatedly quoted today. Jimmy Carr also publicly referred to BTC as the "new gold standard."
What do I think? In the short term, it will indeed be driven by geopolitical events, and market participants have already priced in the risks of the failure of the Iran nuclear negotiations. But from a longer perspective, the position of $71,700, viewed in a halving cycle, whether it is a top or bottom depends on how long a ruler you use to measure.