八方阁 - 一粒沙
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八方阁 - 一粒沙
市场信息捕捉器 #投研#信息梳理
只是交易圈的小小韭菜
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#SNDK #闪迪 #美股 4H shows that Sandisk is in a choppy downtrend; when it rallies, short it.
Recently, rumors in the market say that Sandisk may return to 1500… I don’t dare think that far for now, because Sandisk is a lightweight stock that can be pushed around by a “pump-and-dump” order. It’s not like Micron—it’s too big, and the pull-car is heavier. Sandisk is different: as long as institutions want to pull it up, they can still protect it. The key is which range institutions want it to fall back into right now.
I suggest everyone consider a short-term short position.
Recently, rumors in the market say that Sandisk may return to 1500… I don’t dare think that far for now, because Sandisk is a lightweight stock that can be pushed around by a “pump-and-dump” order. It’s not like Micron—it’s too big, and the pull-car is heavier. Sandisk is different: as long as institutions want to pull it up, they can still protect it. The key is which range institutions want it to fall back into right now.
I suggest everyone consider a short-term short position.
#MU #美光 Today, either keep watching or do a short at the high. The short position is around 940 on the rebound. Note that if the rebound exceeds 986, please watch closely—it’s possible there’s a short-term long trend.
I suggest monitoring the chart closely and trading cautiously. I don’t recommend going long. The overall trend and the external market are clearly bearish.
I’m bearish on the overall U.S. stock market as well. Long-term, the trend is bearish, so you don’t need to ask me whether I’m bullish. I’m a firm bear. Even when the price rose in SanDisk a few days ago, I was still firmly bearish... Don’t ask me why—ask is answered with: I’m a bear—but that doesn’t mean I deny that there can be rebounds and upward moves.
I suggest monitoring the chart closely and trading cautiously. I don’t recommend going long. The overall trend and the external market are clearly bearish.
I’m bearish on the overall U.S. stock market as well. Long-term, the trend is bearish, so you don’t need to ask me whether I’m bullish. I’m a firm bear. Even when the price rose in SanDisk a few days ago, I was still firmly bearish... Don’t ask me why—ask is answered with: I’m a bear—but that doesn’t mean I deny that there can be rebounds and upward moves.
I compiled some industry benchmarking stock information related to AI for your reference. DYOR
#AI #ResearchBeforeInvesting #research #股票
“The alliance model where compute is capital” (OpenAI / Anthropic)
Logic: Although the AI-model unicorns in the map (such as Anthropic and OpenAI) are ostensibly independent, they are backed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). These tech giants bind the unicorns’ valuations to their cloud ecosystems by injecting capital into the unicorns (often by providing compute capacity quotas on Azure/AWS). When investing in these large models, the most reliable secondary-market route is still to buy Microsoft and Amazon.
The “ARR (annual recurring revenue) threshold” for the application layer
Logic: For companies such as Midjourney and Duolingo (DUOL), as well as Adobe (ADBE) listed on the US stock market, the capital market’s scrutiny is extremely strict—“does anyone keep paying for AI features on an ongoing basis?” Midjourney achieved hundreds of millions in revenue via pure consumer subscriptions without taking a single dollar of VC money; it is a miracle of a free-cash-flow valuation. Adobe, meanwhile, relies on its strong B2B monopoly position to forcibly raise the average revenue per user.
Mainland China/HK “overseas mapping” and “application localization” division of labor
Hardware maps to A-shares: As long as orders from US-listed Nvidia (NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) do not decline, mainland China’s Jizhi Xuchuang, Xin Yisheng, and Foxconn Industrial Internet are the AI performance stocks with the highest certainty across the entire market.
Software looks to HK/A-shares for deployment: Due to geopolitical and language barriers, overseas models can’t enter the domestic market directly. Therefore, Meitu (HK-listed, multimodal tools), Futu? Tonghuashun (A-share financial AI), and Kingsoft Office (WPS AI) have a natural ecosystem moat in the local market. They are likely to replicate the commercialization paths of overseas Adobe and Palantir.
#AI #ResearchBeforeInvesting #research #股票
“The alliance model where compute is capital” (OpenAI / Anthropic)
Logic: Although the AI-model unicorns in the map (such as Anthropic and OpenAI) are ostensibly independent, they are backed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). These tech giants bind the unicorns’ valuations to their cloud ecosystems by injecting capital into the unicorns (often by providing compute capacity quotas on Azure/AWS). When investing in these large models, the most reliable secondary-market route is still to buy Microsoft and Amazon.
The “ARR (annual recurring revenue) threshold” for the application layer
Logic: For companies such as Midjourney and Duolingo (DUOL), as well as Adobe (ADBE) listed on the US stock market, the capital market’s scrutiny is extremely strict—“does anyone keep paying for AI features on an ongoing basis?” Midjourney achieved hundreds of millions in revenue via pure consumer subscriptions without taking a single dollar of VC money; it is a miracle of a free-cash-flow valuation. Adobe, meanwhile, relies on its strong B2B monopoly position to forcibly raise the average revenue per user.
Mainland China/HK “overseas mapping” and “application localization” division of labor
Hardware maps to A-shares: As long as orders from US-listed Nvidia (NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) do not decline, mainland China’s Jizhi Xuchuang, Xin Yisheng, and Foxconn Industrial Internet are the AI performance stocks with the highest certainty across the entire market.
Software looks to HK/A-shares for deployment: Due to geopolitical and language barriers, overseas models can’t enter the domestic market directly. Therefore, Meitu (HK-listed, multimodal tools), Futu? Tonghuashun (A-share financial AI), and Kingsoft Office (WPS AI) have a natural ecosystem moat in the local market. They are likely to replicate the commercialization paths of overseas Adobe and Palantir.
I know that everyone is especially fond of financial products in the AI industry right now. Half a year ago, I personally compiled a simple brief and want to share my industry mapping materials. If you like it, feel free to save it for yourself to take a look—#AI #ResearchBeforeInvesting #invest #ResearchFirst . I hope it will be helpful to everyone. I don’t know how well it will perform once published. If the details are not clear, leave me a comment and I’ll send you the web disk address for everyone.
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