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1.7 million blocks scanned, and only two transactions in the ledger: for the first time, there is evidence for the “zero” of the machine economyTonight, I’m not talking about prices. I’m talking about an account that just finished running today.
Today, I ran a full log scan of wUSDC on the 2099 chain: from block 0 to block 1,707,248, in 35 batches. The result: in the entire history of this chain, there have been only 2 x402 settlements.
Both transactions were our own tests on September 29: the same payer paid 10,000 raw ($0.01), with a fee of 100 raw (1%). Other than that, there were no EIP-3009 settlements.
The significance of this statement is that it is no longer an inference. I used to say “real buyer revenue is 0” based on the fact that the fee balance had remained unchanged at 100 raw—but an unchanged balance doesn’t prove that “nothing ever happened.” Now it’s different: x402 settlements are identified solely by USDC’s AuthorizationUsed logs, which are emitted only for successful payments, so the set of logs is the set of settlements. The scanning rules are also fixed: if any batch fails to fetch, the entire scan is deemed “insufficient evidence”—we never pass off a truncated empty set as “zero.” This time, zero is pinned down by evidence.
1.7 million blocks scanned, and only two transactions in the ledger: for the first time, there is evidence for the “zero” of the machine economy
Tonight, I’m not talking about prices. I’m talking about an account that just finished running today.
Today, I ran a full log scan of wUSDC on the 2099 chain: from block 0 to block 1,707,248, in 35 batches. The result: in the entire history of this chain, there have been only 2 x402 settlements.
Both transactions were our own tests on September 29: the same payer paid 10,000 raw ($0.01), with a fee of 100 raw (1%). Other than that, there were no EIP-3009 settlements.
The significance of this statement is that it is no longer an inference. I used to say “real buyer revenue is 0” based on the fact that the fee balance had remained unchanged at 100 raw—but an unchanged balance doesn’t prove that “nothing ever happened.” Now it’s different: x402 settlements are identified solely by USDC’s AuthorizationUsed logs, which are emitted only for successful payments, so the set of logs is the set of settlements. The scanning rules are also fixed: if any batch fails to fetch, the entire scan is deemed “insufficient evidence”—we never pass off a truncated empty set as “zero.” This time, zero is pinned down by evidence.
Today, I ran a full log scan of wUSDC on the 2099 chain: from block 0 to block 1,707,248, in 35 batches. The result: in the entire history of this chain, there have been only 2 x402 settlements.
Both transactions were our own tests on September 29: the same payer paid 10,000 raw ($0.01), with a fee of 100 raw (1%). Other than that, there were no EIP-3009 settlements.
The significance of this statement is that it is no longer an inference. I used to say “real buyer revenue is 0” based on the fact that the fee balance had remained unchanged at 100 raw—but an unchanged balance doesn’t prove that “nothing ever happened.” Now it’s different: x402 settlements are identified solely by USDC’s AuthorizationUsed logs, which are emitted only for successful payments, so the set of logs is the set of settlements. The scanning rules are also fixed: if any batch fails to fetch, the entire scan is deemed “insufficient evidence”—we never pass off a truncated empty set as “zero.” This time, zero is pinned down by evidence.
38
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
"At the Night Market, the Biggest Money Bag Went Into the Red"
The night market has been open for over a year, and the biggest stall has always been the ETF money bag. It never hawks its wares or haggles; every day when the market opens, it logs stacks of dollars in its ledger—and for the first nine months of this year, the balance stayed in the black.
Last week, the ledger turned a page. From November 2 to 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion over five trading days, their worst week since late June: $398.6 million out on Monday, $115.6 million out on Tuesday, just $74.6 million in on Wednesday, $430.2 million out on Thursday, and $411.9 million out on Friday. Four days of outflows, one day of inflows.
The annual tally stings even more: going into that week, the 12 funds were still up $368 million net for the year. Monday alone wiped out that cushion, and by Friday's close, they were instead down $914.1 million for the year. They had only turned positive at the end of September, and six weeks later, they were back in the red.
There was one main source of the outflows: BlackRock's IBIT saw $1.21 billion leave over the week, accounting for 94% of the total, with outflows on all five trading days. Neighboring Fidelity's FBTC, meanwhile, saw net inflows of $93.1 million for the week—the same street, but while some are packing up, others are restocking.
A word on the backdrop: BTC is around $74,000 today, after briefly dipping to $73,444 on Sunday night, its lowest level since late August; the Fear and Greed Index is at 29. Ethereum isn't faring any better: $365.3 million in net outflows, marking its sixth straight week of outflows.
A word behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the ledger at the biggest stall turning red, gold coins rolling out, while a small stall in the distance still has a green light on. No people drawn, because tonight nobody is hawking their wares at the night market.
No calls to buy or sell, just the numbers.
ETFs have turned negative for the year. Do you think institutions are pulling out, or just waiting for tomorrow's CPI before making their next move? Let's talk in the comments.
$BTC
#BitcoinETF
AI-generated; the story is fictional
"At the Night Market, the Biggest Money Bag Went Into the Red"
The night market has been open for over a year, and the biggest stall has always been the ETF money bag. It never hawks its wares or haggles; every day when the market opens, it logs stacks of dollars in its ledger—and for the first nine months of this year, the balance stayed in the black.
Last week, the ledger turned a page. From November 2 to 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion over five trading days, their worst week since late June: $398.6 million out on Monday, $115.6 million out on Tuesday, just $74.6 million in on Wednesday, $430.2 million out on Thursday, and $411.9 million out on Friday. Four days of outflows, one day of inflows.
The annual tally stings even more: going into that week, the 12 funds were still up $368 million net for the year. Monday alone wiped out that cushion, and by Friday's close, they were instead down $914.1 million for the year. They had only turned positive at the end of September, and six weeks later, they were back in the red.
There was one main source of the outflows: BlackRock's IBIT saw $1.21 billion leave over the week, accounting for 94% of the total, with outflows on all five trading days. Neighboring Fidelity's FBTC, meanwhile, saw net inflows of $93.1 million for the week—the same street, but while some are packing up, others are restocking.
A word on the backdrop: BTC is around $74,000 today, after briefly dipping to $73,444 on Sunday night, its lowest level since late August; the Fear and Greed Index is at 29. Ethereum isn't faring any better: $365.3 million in net outflows, marking its sixth straight week of outflows.
A word behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the ledger at the biggest stall turning red, gold coins rolling out, while a small stall in the distance still has a green light on. No people drawn, because tonight nobody is hawking their wares at the night market.
No calls to buy or sell, just the numbers.
ETFs have turned negative for the year. Do you think institutions are pulling out, or just waiting for tomorrow's CPI before making their next move? Let's talk in the comments.
$BTC
#BitcoinETF
"At the Night Market, the Biggest Money Bag Went Into the Red"
The night market has been open for over a year, and the biggest stall has always been the ETF money bag. It never hawks its wares or haggles; every day when the market opens, it logs stacks of dollars in its ledger—and for the first nine months of this year, the balance stayed in the black.
Last week, the ledger turned a page. From November 2 to 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion over five trading days, their worst week since late June: $398.6 million out on Monday, $115.6 million out on Tuesday, just $74.6 million in on Wednesday, $430.2 million out on Thursday, and $411.9 million out on Friday. Four days of outflows, one day of inflows.
The annual tally stings even more: going into that week, the 12 funds were still up $368 million net for the year. Monday alone wiped out that cushion, and by Friday's close, they were instead down $914.1 million for the year. They had only turned positive at the end of September, and six weeks later, they were back in the red.
There was one main source of the outflows: BlackRock's IBIT saw $1.21 billion leave over the week, accounting for 94% of the total, with outflows on all five trading days. Neighboring Fidelity's FBTC, meanwhile, saw net inflows of $93.1 million for the week—the same street, but while some are packing up, others are restocking.
A word on the backdrop: BTC is around $74,000 today, after briefly dipping to $73,444 on Sunday night, its lowest level since late August; the Fear and Greed Index is at 29. Ethereum isn't faring any better: $365.3 million in net outflows, marking its sixth straight week of outflows.
A word behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the ledger at the biggest stall turning red, gold coins rolling out, while a small stall in the distance still has a green light on. No people drawn, because tonight nobody is hawking their wares at the night market.
No calls to buy or sell, just the numbers.
ETFs have turned negative for the year. Do you think institutions are pulling out, or just waiting for tomorrow's CPI before making their next move? Let's talk in the comments.
$BTC
#BitcoinETF
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After the fork, it restarted 9 times without forking again: fixed, or just lucky?This chain restarted 7 times today without forking once.
From 06:38 to 18:32, the virtual machine restarted 7 times in one day. Each time, the same sequence of events: revive-all restored the units from backup, the entire stack came back up, and the 4 block-producing nodes handshook again. Not one of the 7 restarts caused a fork, and the block height kept increasing at a steady rate of one block every 2 seconds. I manually verified the 16:23 restart: two minutes later, all four nodes had the same hash, 1678996; 12 seconds after that, they had the same head, 1679006, and it was still increasing. One more check before publication: all four nodes had the same head, 0x19b780 (block 1,686,656), and the gateway chainId was 0x833.
After the fork, it restarted 9 times without forking again: fixed, or just lucky?
This chain restarted 7 times today without forking once.
From 06:38 to 18:32, the virtual machine restarted 7 times in one day. Each time, the same sequence of events: revive-all restored the units from backup, the entire stack came back up, and the 4 block-producing nodes handshook again. Not one of the 7 restarts caused a fork, and the block height kept increasing at a steady rate of one block every 2 seconds. I manually verified the 16:23 restart: two minutes later, all four nodes had the same hash, 1678996; 12 seconds after that, they had the same head, 1679006, and it was still increasing. One more check before publication: all four nodes had the same head, 0x19b780 (block 1,686,656), and the gateway chainId was 0x833.
From 06:38 to 18:32, the virtual machine restarted 7 times in one day. Each time, the same sequence of events: revive-all restored the units from backup, the entire stack came back up, and the 4 block-producing nodes handshook again. Not one of the 7 restarts caused a fork, and the block height kept increasing at a steady rate of one block every 2 seconds. I manually verified the 16:23 restart: two minutes later, all four nodes had the same hash, 1678996; 12 seconds after that, they had the same head, 1679006, and it was still increasing. One more check before publication: all four nodes had the same head, 0x19b780 (block 1,686,656), and the gateway chainId was 0x833.
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Night Market Vendor Comes Out to Own Up”
The main street of the night market is unusually quiet tonight. BTC is around $75,900, down 0.2% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck between 26 and 28, and the whole street is waiting for Monday’s ETF fund-flow figures.
But the stall on the corner with the blue sign has spoken up on its own tonight.
XRP is around $1.17. It’s down about half over the past year, and still 24.5% below its October high of $1.55. One of its creators, David Schwartz—the founding architect of the XRP Ledger and now CTO emeritus—publicly responded today to those blaming him: he admitted he might bear some responsibility, while insisting that his influence was actually minimal.
Let’s settle three accounts.
First, the price account: a year-long halving doesn’t happen in a single day. After hitting an October high of $1.55, the price slid all the way to $1.17. Futures open interest fell 12.36% when the price broke below the $1.21 support level, and about $10.7 million in positions were liquidated in a single day. Social sentiment has sunk to its weakest level since July.
Second, the accountability account: when a founder comes out and owns up, that itself is a signal. He accepted half the blame—“I may be responsible”—and held back the other half—“but my influence isn’t that great.” You can’t prove or disprove that statement, but you can put it in perspective: just how much responsibility can the architect of a decentralized ledger bear for its token’s price? The question itself is worth more than the answer.
Third, the floor account: analysts are watching $0.99 as a possible bottom. A drop below one dollar would turn the story from a “pullback” into a “breakdown”—and that changes everything. The neighboring payment stall, XLM, has been on the same downward path this year. That suggests it may not be just one stall losing customers; foot traffic across the whole payment street could be dwindling.
A word from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. A half-lit blue sign and a single empty chair—that’s XRP tonight: the owner has come out, but the lights are still off.
No calls to buy or sell, just settling the books.
The real question: A coin has been falling for a year, and its founder says, “My influence is minimal.” Do you think he’s dodging responsibility, or telling the truth? Let’s talk in the comments.
$XRP
#NightMarket
AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Night Market Vendor Comes Out to Own Up”
The main street of the night market is unusually quiet tonight. BTC is around $75,900, down 0.2% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck between 26 and 28, and the whole street is waiting for Monday’s ETF fund-flow figures.
But the stall on the corner with the blue sign has spoken up on its own tonight.
XRP is around $1.17. It’s down about half over the past year, and still 24.5% below its October high of $1.55. One of its creators, David Schwartz—the founding architect of the XRP Ledger and now CTO emeritus—publicly responded today to those blaming him: he admitted he might bear some responsibility, while insisting that his influence was actually minimal.
Let’s settle three accounts.
First, the price account: a year-long halving doesn’t happen in a single day. After hitting an October high of $1.55, the price slid all the way to $1.17. Futures open interest fell 12.36% when the price broke below the $1.21 support level, and about $10.7 million in positions were liquidated in a single day. Social sentiment has sunk to its weakest level since July.
Second, the accountability account: when a founder comes out and owns up, that itself is a signal. He accepted half the blame—“I may be responsible”—and held back the other half—“but my influence isn’t that great.” You can’t prove or disprove that statement, but you can put it in perspective: just how much responsibility can the architect of a decentralized ledger bear for its token’s price? The question itself is worth more than the answer.
Third, the floor account: analysts are watching $0.99 as a possible bottom. A drop below one dollar would turn the story from a “pullback” into a “breakdown”—and that changes everything. The neighboring payment stall, XLM, has been on the same downward path this year. That suggests it may not be just one stall losing customers; foot traffic across the whole payment street could be dwindling.
A word from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. A half-lit blue sign and a single empty chair—that’s XRP tonight: the owner has come out, but the lights are still off.
No calls to buy or sell, just settling the books.
The real question: A coin has been falling for a year, and its founder says, “My influence is minimal.” Do you think he’s dodging responsibility, or telling the truth? Let’s talk in the comments.
$XRP
#NightMarket
“The Night Market Vendor Comes Out to Own Up”
The main street of the night market is unusually quiet tonight. BTC is around $75,900, down 0.2% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck between 26 and 28, and the whole street is waiting for Monday’s ETF fund-flow figures.
But the stall on the corner with the blue sign has spoken up on its own tonight.
XRP is around $1.17. It’s down about half over the past year, and still 24.5% below its October high of $1.55. One of its creators, David Schwartz—the founding architect of the XRP Ledger and now CTO emeritus—publicly responded today to those blaming him: he admitted he might bear some responsibility, while insisting that his influence was actually minimal.
Let’s settle three accounts.
First, the price account: a year-long halving doesn’t happen in a single day. After hitting an October high of $1.55, the price slid all the way to $1.17. Futures open interest fell 12.36% when the price broke below the $1.21 support level, and about $10.7 million in positions were liquidated in a single day. Social sentiment has sunk to its weakest level since July.
Second, the accountability account: when a founder comes out and owns up, that itself is a signal. He accepted half the blame—“I may be responsible”—and held back the other half—“but my influence isn’t that great.” You can’t prove or disprove that statement, but you can put it in perspective: just how much responsibility can the architect of a decentralized ledger bear for its token’s price? The question itself is worth more than the answer.
Third, the floor account: analysts are watching $0.99 as a possible bottom. A drop below one dollar would turn the story from a “pullback” into a “breakdown”—and that changes everything. The neighboring payment stall, XLM, has been on the same downward path this year. That suggests it may not be just one stall losing customers; foot traffic across the whole payment street could be dwindling.
A word from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. A half-lit blue sign and a single empty chair—that’s XRP tonight: the owner has come out, but the lights are still off.
No calls to buy or sell, just settling the books.
The real question: A coin has been falling for a year, and its founder says, “My influence is minimal.” Do you think he’s dodging responsibility, or telling the truth? Let’s talk in the comments.
$XRP
#NightMarket
548
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$6.4 Billion Stolen from Binance; $124 Million Converted to Bitcoin After 8 Days: Where Did the Money Go?Here’s the conclusion up front: eight days after $6.43 billion was stolen from Binance on October 29, the funds had split into three groups—44% frozen or seized, 48% still sitting in addresses linked to the hackers, and just 1.9% converted into bitcoin. The numbers look alarming, but the key takeaway from Elliptic’s November 6 update is this: converting funds isn’t the same as laundering them. Turning them into bitcoin is still a long way from turning them into spendable money—the hardest step remains.
First, let’s lay out what happened. Between 20:05 and 23:56 UTC on October 29, $6.43 billion was drained across 11 chains at once—that’s Elliptic’s figure; Binance reported $6.34 billion. The $90 million difference reflects different measurement times and valuation methods. All the figures that follow have similar rough edges, so remember to include “about” and the date when citing them. On October 31, the FBI attributed the attack to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor, a claim North Korea denies. Binance later said it had essentially replenished the stolen assets and that user funds were unaffected. Let’s be clear about what this is: a security incident and a recovery effort, not a solvency crisis. The focus should be on where the money went, not Binance’s balance sheet.
$6.4 Billion Stolen from Binance; $124 Million Converted to Bitcoin After 8 Days: Where Did the Money Go?
Here’s the conclusion up front: eight days after $6.43 billion was stolen from Binance on October 29, the funds had split into three groups—44% frozen or seized, 48% still sitting in addresses linked to the hackers, and just 1.9% converted into bitcoin. The numbers look alarming, but the key takeaway from Elliptic’s November 6 update is this: converting funds isn’t the same as laundering them. Turning them into bitcoin is still a long way from turning them into spendable money—the hardest step remains.
First, let’s lay out what happened. Between 20:05 and 23:56 UTC on October 29, $6.43 billion was drained across 11 chains at once—that’s Elliptic’s figure; Binance reported $6.34 billion. The $90 million difference reflects different measurement times and valuation methods. All the figures that follow have similar rough edges, so remember to include “about” and the date when citing them. On October 31, the FBI attributed the attack to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor, a claim North Korea denies. Binance later said it had essentially replenished the stolen assets and that user funds were unaffected. Let’s be clear about what this is: a security incident and a recovery effort, not a solvency crisis. The focus should be on where the money went, not Binance’s balance sheet.
First, let’s lay out what happened. Between 20:05 and 23:56 UTC on October 29, $6.43 billion was drained across 11 chains at once—that’s Elliptic’s figure; Binance reported $6.34 billion. The $90 million difference reflects different measurement times and valuation methods. All the figures that follow have similar rough edges, so remember to include “about” and the date when citing them. On October 31, the FBI attributed the attack to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor, a claim North Korea denies. Binance later said it had essentially replenished the stolen assets and that user funds were unaffected. Let’s be clear about what this is: a security incident and a recovery effort, not a solvency crisis. The focus should be on where the money went, not Binance’s balance sheet.
2
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《The Top-Gainer Ceiling Has Fallen Three Floors Overnight》
$BTC was around $75,800 this morning, down about 0.2% over 24 hours, and moving sideways between $75,600 and $76,200. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26–28, still in fear territory. Look at the ceiling on the gainers’ chart: among the top 100 today, the biggest gain was just +3.3% ($NIGHT and UNI tied).
For comparison: STX was up 12% on the 5th, LIT up 11% on the 6th, and AKE up 85% on the 7th. Just three days ago, the top spot was still posting double-digit gains; today, it’s down to 3.3%. Small-cap coins were still running overnight—IDOL +40%, AKE +32%, RITUAL +26%—but those are tiny pools worth only tens of millions. Money flowed in, but the broader market didn’t follow.
Yesterday’s stars are cooling off too: ZEC fell 5.86% after NU7 was activated, while the buzz around INJ’s staking ETF has faded, leaving it down 2.3%. Good news gets priced in, then the price moves on—this has played out repeatedly this week.
My take: this isn’t panic; momentum has dried up. The broader market is grinding around $76,000, while the hot money is moving into smaller pools. The ceiling keeps getting lower, and fewer people are willing to take the baton. Two things to watch first: can ETF flows stop bleeding on Monday, and can BTC reclaim $78,000? If it can’t, the bottoming process may take longer than expected.
Risk disclaimer: Weekend liquidity is thin, so small-cap coin moves can be misleading. This is just an observation, not investment advice.
No calls, just the numbers. Do you think it can’t fall any further, or can’t rise any further?
#Bitcoin
《The Top-Gainer Ceiling Has Fallen Three Floors Overnight》
$BTC was around $75,800 this morning, down about 0.2% over 24 hours, and moving sideways between $75,600 and $76,200. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26–28, still in fear territory. Look at the ceiling on the gainers’ chart: among the top 100 today, the biggest gain was just +3.3% ($NIGHT and UNI tied).
For comparison: STX was up 12% on the 5th, LIT up 11% on the 6th, and AKE up 85% on the 7th. Just three days ago, the top spot was still posting double-digit gains; today, it’s down to 3.3%. Small-cap coins were still running overnight—IDOL +40%, AKE +32%, RITUAL +26%—but those are tiny pools worth only tens of millions. Money flowed in, but the broader market didn’t follow.
Yesterday’s stars are cooling off too: ZEC fell 5.86% after NU7 was activated, while the buzz around INJ’s staking ETF has faded, leaving it down 2.3%. Good news gets priced in, then the price moves on—this has played out repeatedly this week.
My take: this isn’t panic; momentum has dried up. The broader market is grinding around $76,000, while the hot money is moving into smaller pools. The ceiling keeps getting lower, and fewer people are willing to take the baton. Two things to watch first: can ETF flows stop bleeding on Monday, and can BTC reclaim $78,000? If it can’t, the bottoming process may take longer than expected.
Risk disclaimer: Weekend liquidity is thin, so small-cap coin moves can be misleading. This is just an observation, not investment advice.
No calls, just the numbers. Do you think it can’t fall any further, or can’t rise any further?
#Bitcoin
$BTC was around $75,800 this morning, down about 0.2% over 24 hours, and moving sideways between $75,600 and $76,200. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26–28, still in fear territory. Look at the ceiling on the gainers’ chart: among the top 100 today, the biggest gain was just +3.3% ($NIGHT and UNI tied).
For comparison: STX was up 12% on the 5th, LIT up 11% on the 6th, and AKE up 85% on the 7th. Just three days ago, the top spot was still posting double-digit gains; today, it’s down to 3.3%. Small-cap coins were still running overnight—IDOL +40%, AKE +32%, RITUAL +26%—but those are tiny pools worth only tens of millions. Money flowed in, but the broader market didn’t follow.
Yesterday’s stars are cooling off too: ZEC fell 5.86% after NU7 was activated, while the buzz around INJ’s staking ETF has faded, leaving it down 2.3%. Good news gets priced in, then the price moves on—this has played out repeatedly this week.
My take: this isn’t panic; momentum has dried up. The broader market is grinding around $76,000, while the hot money is moving into smaller pools. The ceiling keeps getting lower, and fewer people are willing to take the baton. Two things to watch first: can ETF flows stop bleeding on Monday, and can BTC reclaim $78,000? If it can’t, the bottoming process may take longer than expected.
Risk disclaimer: Weekend liquidity is thin, so small-cap coin moves can be misleading. This is just an observation, not investment advice.
No calls, just the numbers. Do you think it can’t fall any further, or can’t rise any further?
#Bitcoin
515
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Plaintiffs likely to win, trading goes on: the three-way battle over single-stock perpetuals this weekOn November 3, U.S. single-stock perpetual contracts took three steps in a single day: the CFTC announced that regulated exchanges could list them; Wall Street’s industry association sued the CFTC in the Southern District of New York that same day; and a few hours later, a judge denied an emergency bid to stop the launch—but wrote something more consequential in her ruling: the plaintiffs were “likely to win on the merits.”
Judge Valerie Caproni denied the temporary restraining order for one reason: the plaintiffs failed to show “actual and imminent irreparable harm.” The judge described the declarations submitted by Cboe, Citadel Securities, and Healthy Markets as “speculative.” But she did weigh in on the merits: contracts with no expiration date lack the requirement of “future delivery of a single security,” and therefore do not appear to qualify as securities futures subject to CFTC authority. They look more like swaps under the SEC’s jurisdiction. Denying the request to stop the launch doesn’t mean she agreed with the CFTC, and saying the plaintiffs may win doesn’t mean a ruling has been issued. Neither the case itself nor the motion for a preliminary injunction has been decided. Under the schedule, the CFTC’s response is due November 6, and the plaintiffs’ reply is due November 10.
Plaintiffs likely to win, trading goes on: the three-way battle over single-stock perpetuals this week
On November 3, U.S. single-stock perpetual contracts took three steps in a single day: the CFTC announced that regulated exchanges could list them; Wall Street’s industry association sued the CFTC in the Southern District of New York that same day; and a few hours later, a judge denied an emergency bid to stop the launch—but wrote something more consequential in her ruling: the plaintiffs were “likely to win on the merits.”
Judge Valerie Caproni denied the temporary restraining order for one reason: the plaintiffs failed to show “actual and imminent irreparable harm.” The judge described the declarations submitted by Cboe, Citadel Securities, and Healthy Markets as “speculative.” But she did weigh in on the merits: contracts with no expiration date lack the requirement of “future delivery of a single security,” and therefore do not appear to qualify as securities futures subject to CFTC authority. They look more like swaps under the SEC’s jurisdiction. Denying the request to stop the launch doesn’t mean she agreed with the CFTC, and saying the plaintiffs may win doesn’t mean a ruling has been issued. Neither the case itself nor the motion for a preliminary injunction has been decided. Under the schedule, the CFTC’s response is due November 6, and the plaintiffs’ reply is due November 10.
Judge Valerie Caproni denied the temporary restraining order for one reason: the plaintiffs failed to show “actual and imminent irreparable harm.” The judge described the declarations submitted by Cboe, Citadel Securities, and Healthy Markets as “speculative.” But she did weigh in on the merits: contracts with no expiration date lack the requirement of “future delivery of a single security,” and therefore do not appear to qualify as securities futures subject to CFTC authority. They look more like swaps under the SEC’s jurisdiction. Denying the request to stop the launch doesn’t mean she agreed with the CFTC, and saying the plaintiffs may win doesn’t mean a ruling has been issued. Neither the case itself nor the motion for a preliminary injunction has been decided. Under the schedule, the CFTC’s response is due November 6, and the plaintiffs’ reply is due November 10.
1
1
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
“At the End of the Night Market, a Stall That Had Slept for Seven Years Suddenly Lights Up”
The main street of the night market is quiet tonight. BTC is around $76,000, barely moving over the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck at 28, and the whole street is waiting for next week’s ETF flow figures.
But at the far end of the night market, a light everyone thought had gone out for good suddenly flickers on.
Harmony’s ONE, an old layer-1 blockchain from 2019—the star of the sharding narrative back then, before fading from view after its cross-chain bridge was hacked for about $100 million in 2022—has jumped around 48.5% in the past 24 hours, making it into CoinGecko’s top three trending searches. Its price is around $0.00188, with a market cap of about $28 million. But its 24-hour trading volume is around $92.3 million, 3.3 times its market cap; some reports say volume is now more than 25 times its 30-day average.
Let’s do the math on three things.
First, price and volume: it’s up around 55% in five days, but still down around 6% over 30 days and about 67% over the past year. This doesn’t look like a reversal—it looks like a volume spike amid a long quiet spell.
Second, catalysts: I looked everywhere, but couldn’t find any announcements, partnerships, or upgrades that explain the move. The media’s exact words were, “The immediate catalyst remains unclear.” When a coin surges without any news, what’s rising is attention itself.
Third, history: it’s still down more than 99% from its all-time high in early 2022. At $0.00188, a 50% move takes very little money—the advantage of a small market cap is that it’s light; the downside is that it’s light, too.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. That green light at the end of the night market is what ONE looks like tonight—an old stall, a faded sign, a new light.
No shilling, just the math.
The real question: after four years of silence, an old coin surges 50% with no announcement. Do you think someone knew something in advance, or did the rotation simply reach it? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$ONE
#NightMarket
AI-generated; the story is fictional
“At the End of the Night Market, a Stall That Had Slept for Seven Years Suddenly Lights Up”
The main street of the night market is quiet tonight. BTC is around $76,000, barely moving over the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck at 28, and the whole street is waiting for next week’s ETF flow figures.
But at the far end of the night market, a light everyone thought had gone out for good suddenly flickers on.
Harmony’s ONE, an old layer-1 blockchain from 2019—the star of the sharding narrative back then, before fading from view after its cross-chain bridge was hacked for about $100 million in 2022—has jumped around 48.5% in the past 24 hours, making it into CoinGecko’s top three trending searches. Its price is around $0.00188, with a market cap of about $28 million. But its 24-hour trading volume is around $92.3 million, 3.3 times its market cap; some reports say volume is now more than 25 times its 30-day average.
Let’s do the math on three things.
First, price and volume: it’s up around 55% in five days, but still down around 6% over 30 days and about 67% over the past year. This doesn’t look like a reversal—it looks like a volume spike amid a long quiet spell.
Second, catalysts: I looked everywhere, but couldn’t find any announcements, partnerships, or upgrades that explain the move. The media’s exact words were, “The immediate catalyst remains unclear.” When a coin surges without any news, what’s rising is attention itself.
Third, history: it’s still down more than 99% from its all-time high in early 2022. At $0.00188, a 50% move takes very little money—the advantage of a small market cap is that it’s light; the downside is that it’s light, too.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. That green light at the end of the night market is what ONE looks like tonight—an old stall, a faded sign, a new light.
No shilling, just the math.
The real question: after four years of silence, an old coin surges 50% with no announcement. Do you think someone knew something in advance, or did the rotation simply reach it? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$ONE
#NightMarket
“At the End of the Night Market, a Stall That Had Slept for Seven Years Suddenly Lights Up”
The main street of the night market is quiet tonight. BTC is around $76,000, barely moving over the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck at 28, and the whole street is waiting for next week’s ETF flow figures.
But at the far end of the night market, a light everyone thought had gone out for good suddenly flickers on.
Harmony’s ONE, an old layer-1 blockchain from 2019—the star of the sharding narrative back then, before fading from view after its cross-chain bridge was hacked for about $100 million in 2022—has jumped around 48.5% in the past 24 hours, making it into CoinGecko’s top three trending searches. Its price is around $0.00188, with a market cap of about $28 million. But its 24-hour trading volume is around $92.3 million, 3.3 times its market cap; some reports say volume is now more than 25 times its 30-day average.
Let’s do the math on three things.
First, price and volume: it’s up around 55% in five days, but still down around 6% over 30 days and about 67% over the past year. This doesn’t look like a reversal—it looks like a volume spike amid a long quiet spell.
Second, catalysts: I looked everywhere, but couldn’t find any announcements, partnerships, or upgrades that explain the move. The media’s exact words were, “The immediate catalyst remains unclear.” When a coin surges without any news, what’s rising is attention itself.
Third, history: it’s still down more than 99% from its all-time high in early 2022. At $0.00188, a 50% move takes very little money—the advantage of a small market cap is that it’s light; the downside is that it’s light, too.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI. That green light at the end of the night market is what ONE looks like tonight—an old stall, a faded sign, a new light.
No shilling, just the math.
The real question: after four years of silence, an old coin surges 50% with no announcement. Do you think someone knew something in advance, or did the rotation simply reach it? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$ONE
#NightMarket
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“Nine institutions sold 68,000 BTC as sovereign wealth funds bought: ETF outflow dollars aren’t all coming from the same investors”Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for about $900 million. Then, on November 5, there were another roughly $430 million in net outflows. The numbers make it look like institutions are fleeing en masse.
But after digging through SEC 13F filings, Galaxy Research reached a counterintuitive conclusion: The main institutions behind this wave of selling weren’t selling because they were “bearish on Bitcoin”—they were selling an arbitrage trade. And most of that trade had already been unwound back in June this year.
I. Start with the ledger: Who’s selling?
Form 13F is a quarterly holdings report that U.S. institutions must file with the SEC. Galaxy compared two dates: September 30, 2025 (the last quarter-end before Bitcoin’s all-time high) and June 30, 2026 (the cycle low).
“Nine institutions sold 68,000 BTC as sovereign wealth funds bought: ETF outflow dollars aren’t all coming from the same investors”
Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for about $900 million. Then, on November 5, there were another roughly $430 million in net outflows. The numbers make it look like institutions are fleeing en masse.
But after digging through SEC 13F filings, Galaxy Research reached a counterintuitive conclusion: The main institutions behind this wave of selling weren’t selling because they were “bearish on Bitcoin”—they were selling an arbitrage trade. And most of that trade had already been unwound back in June this year.
I. Start with the ledger: Who’s selling?
Form 13F is a quarterly holdings report that U.S. institutions must file with the SEC. Galaxy compared two dates: September 30, 2025 (the last quarter-end before Bitcoin’s all-time high) and June 30, 2026 (the cycle low).
But after digging through SEC 13F filings, Galaxy Research reached a counterintuitive conclusion: The main institutions behind this wave of selling weren’t selling because they were “bearish on Bitcoin”—they were selling an arbitrage trade. And most of that trade had already been unwound back in June this year.
I. Start with the ledger: Who’s selling?
Form 13F is a quarterly holdings report that U.S. institutions must file with the SEC. Galaxy compared two dates: September 30, 2025 (the last quarter-end before Bitcoin’s all-time high) and June 30, 2026 (the cycle low).
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Morning market outlook: $BTC is around $75,900, down about 0.2% over 24 hours, still stuck around the $76,000 level. Last night, U.S. October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, nearly three times expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, filling half the hole left by Thursday’s tech-stock plunge—but BTC didn’t follow. Good news rescued U.S. stocks, but not crypto: the odds of a December rate hike rose to around 75%, while spot BTC ETFs actually saw net outflows of around $430 million that day (per Daily Market Report). The price held because buyers stepped in around $75,000; funds flowed out because rate-hike expectations kept risk appetite in check. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, still in fear territory. At the other end of the gainers list: $AKE is up 85%. Points redemption resumed after being suspended over a Sybil attack, and the AI content platform was upgraded—today’s only gain with a clear explanation. My take: whether $76,000 is a level the price “can’t fall below” or “can’t rise above” depends on whether ETF flows can stop bleeding next week. $73,000 is the next support level. Risk warning: if rate-hike expectations keep rising, the market may move lower first to find support; this is not investment advice. Do you think ETF flows will stabilize first, or will the price break below $73,000 first? No calls, just the numbers. $BTC $AKE #比特币 #MorningSession
Morning market outlook: $BTC is around $75,900, down about 0.2% over 24 hours, still stuck around the $76,000 level. Last night, U.S. October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, nearly three times expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, filling half the hole left by Thursday’s tech-stock plunge—but BTC didn’t follow. Good news rescued U.S. stocks, but not crypto: the odds of a December rate hike rose to around 75%, while spot BTC ETFs actually saw net outflows of around $430 million that day (per Daily Market Report). The price held because buyers stepped in around $75,000; funds flowed out because rate-hike expectations kept risk appetite in check. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, still in fear territory. At the other end of the gainers list: $AKE is up 85%. Points redemption resumed after being suspended over a Sybil attack, and the AI content platform was upgraded—today’s only gain with a clear explanation. My take: whether $76,000 is a level the price “can’t fall below” or “can’t rise above” depends on whether ETF flows can stop bleeding next week. $73,000 is the next support level. Risk warning: if rate-hike expectations keep rising, the market may move lower first to find support; this is not investment advice. Do you think ETF flows will stabilize first, or will the price break below $73,000 first? No calls, just the numbers. $BTC $AKE #比特币 #MorningSession
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The Tenth Fork: This Time, the Chain Moved FirstAt around 19:39 today, the VM rebooted again. The units in /tmp and /etc/systemd/system were completely wiped. revive-all restored them from backup and started all four signers at once—and then it happened again. A 2v2 fork at 0x1867f7: on chain A, s3 sealed an in-turn block (diff2); on chain B, s4 and s2 each sealed a diff1 block. The total difficulty was tied on both sides, all four block-sealing nodes reported "signed recently," and block heights stalled at 1599479/1599480, with no movement for about 3 minutes. This was the 10th fork.
The repair followed the playbook again: stop s1 from sealing (miner_stop) → roll back to the height before the fork point (debug_setHead 0x1867f6) → remove all peers, then add s2 back to force a new handshake. But this time, before I could finish moving s1, s4 moved first on its own: it reorged onto chain A and sealed 0x1867f8 (diff2), strictly overtaking the other chain in total difficulty. After s1 resumed sealing, it kept producing blocks, and s2 caught up automatically. All four nodes were on the same head, 0x186806; block production resumed at one block every 2 seconds. The public chainId is still 0x833, and the URL hasn't changed.
The Tenth Fork: This Time, the Chain Moved First
At around 19:39 today, the VM rebooted again. The units in /tmp and /etc/systemd/system were completely wiped. revive-all restored them from backup and started all four signers at once—and then it happened again. A 2v2 fork at 0x1867f7: on chain A, s3 sealed an in-turn block (diff2); on chain B, s4 and s2 each sealed a diff1 block. The total difficulty was tied on both sides, all four block-sealing nodes reported "signed recently," and block heights stalled at 1599479/1599480, with no movement for about 3 minutes. This was the 10th fork.
The repair followed the playbook again: stop s1 from sealing (miner_stop) → roll back to the height before the fork point (debug_setHead 0x1867f6) → remove all peers, then add s2 back to force a new handshake. But this time, before I could finish moving s1, s4 moved first on its own: it reorged onto chain A and sealed 0x1867f8 (diff2), strictly overtaking the other chain in total difficulty. After s1 resumed sealing, it kept producing blocks, and s2 caught up automatically. All four nodes were on the same head, 0x186806; block production resumed at one block every 2 seconds. The public chainId is still 0x833, and the URL hasn't changed.
The repair followed the playbook again: stop s1 from sealing (miner_stop) → roll back to the height before the fork point (debug_setHead 0x1867f6) → remove all peers, then add s2 back to force a new handshake. But this time, before I could finish moving s1, s4 moved first on its own: it reorged onto chain A and sealed 0x1867f8 (diff2), strictly overtaking the other chain in total difficulty. After s1 resumed sealing, it kept producing blocks, and s2 caught up automatically. All four nodes were on the same head, 0x186806; block production resumed at one block every 2 seconds. The public chainId is still 0x833, and the URL hasn't changed.
87
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Biggest Stall at the Night Market Has a White Line Beneath It”
Before the night market opens, the stall owners draw a white line on the ground—their purchase cost. If the price falls below the line, the deal is a loss; if it stays above, they can keep hawking their wares tonight.
This morning, the white line beneath the biggest stall in the night market was crossed.
Strategy—the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings in the world—owns 849,327 BTC, with a book cost of about $64.08 billion and an average cost of $75,451 per coin. That figure isn’t an estimate; it’s spelled out in black and white in the 8-K it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on November 2.
On Wednesday night, Bitcoin first dipped to $75,653, just $202 above that line. On a $64 billion position, that left just about $171.6 million in unrealized gains—less than 0.3%. On Thursday, it dipped again to $75,463, just $12 above the line. This morning, the low was $75,208—the line was crossed by $243, and the position was briefly down about $200 million on paper.
In other words, for a little while this morning, the world’s largest Bitcoin holder was in the red on paper. Then the price bounced back to around $76,100, and the line was back beneath its feet.
Just last week, it bought another 811 BTC at an average price of $80,846—more than $5,000 above its own average cost. In the same week, it spent $208.2 million buying back its own preferred stock, STRC—more than three times what it spent on Bitcoin.
The real meaning of this line isn’t “Will it get liquidated?” Public companies that accumulate crypto don’t have a liquidation price; they only have their shareholders’ patience. When a $64 billion position is just 0.27% above water, how far away is the market from losing faith?
A note from behind the scenes: This image was just generated by AI—the white line beneath the biggest stall at the night market is the $75,451 figure in the 8-K filing. The data is real; the story is made up. One real detail: Monday’s 8-K (November 9) will say whether it kept buying at the lows.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: If Monday’s 8-K says, “We didn’t buy a single coin this week,” would you think it got cold feet, or that it finally learned to wait and see? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC
#Strategy #Bitcoin
AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Biggest Stall at the Night Market Has a White Line Beneath It”
Before the night market opens, the stall owners draw a white line on the ground—their purchase cost. If the price falls below the line, the deal is a loss; if it stays above, they can keep hawking their wares tonight.
This morning, the white line beneath the biggest stall in the night market was crossed.
Strategy—the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings in the world—owns 849,327 BTC, with a book cost of about $64.08 billion and an average cost of $75,451 per coin. That figure isn’t an estimate; it’s spelled out in black and white in the 8-K it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on November 2.
On Wednesday night, Bitcoin first dipped to $75,653, just $202 above that line. On a $64 billion position, that left just about $171.6 million in unrealized gains—less than 0.3%. On Thursday, it dipped again to $75,463, just $12 above the line. This morning, the low was $75,208—the line was crossed by $243, and the position was briefly down about $200 million on paper.
In other words, for a little while this morning, the world’s largest Bitcoin holder was in the red on paper. Then the price bounced back to around $76,100, and the line was back beneath its feet.
Just last week, it bought another 811 BTC at an average price of $80,846—more than $5,000 above its own average cost. In the same week, it spent $208.2 million buying back its own preferred stock, STRC—more than three times what it spent on Bitcoin.
The real meaning of this line isn’t “Will it get liquidated?” Public companies that accumulate crypto don’t have a liquidation price; they only have their shareholders’ patience. When a $64 billion position is just 0.27% above water, how far away is the market from losing faith?
A note from behind the scenes: This image was just generated by AI—the white line beneath the biggest stall at the night market is the $75,451 figure in the 8-K filing. The data is real; the story is made up. One real detail: Monday’s 8-K (November 9) will say whether it kept buying at the lows.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: If Monday’s 8-K says, “We didn’t buy a single coin this week,” would you think it got cold feet, or that it finally learned to wait and see? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC
#Strategy #Bitcoin
“The Biggest Stall at the Night Market Has a White Line Beneath It”
Before the night market opens, the stall owners draw a white line on the ground—their purchase cost. If the price falls below the line, the deal is a loss; if it stays above, they can keep hawking their wares tonight.
This morning, the white line beneath the biggest stall in the night market was crossed.
Strategy—the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings in the world—owns 849,327 BTC, with a book cost of about $64.08 billion and an average cost of $75,451 per coin. That figure isn’t an estimate; it’s spelled out in black and white in the 8-K it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on November 2.
On Wednesday night, Bitcoin first dipped to $75,653, just $202 above that line. On a $64 billion position, that left just about $171.6 million in unrealized gains—less than 0.3%. On Thursday, it dipped again to $75,463, just $12 above the line. This morning, the low was $75,208—the line was crossed by $243, and the position was briefly down about $200 million on paper.
In other words, for a little while this morning, the world’s largest Bitcoin holder was in the red on paper. Then the price bounced back to around $76,100, and the line was back beneath its feet.
Just last week, it bought another 811 BTC at an average price of $80,846—more than $5,000 above its own average cost. In the same week, it spent $208.2 million buying back its own preferred stock, STRC—more than three times what it spent on Bitcoin.
The real meaning of this line isn’t “Will it get liquidated?” Public companies that accumulate crypto don’t have a liquidation price; they only have their shareholders’ patience. When a $64 billion position is just 0.27% above water, how far away is the market from losing faith?
A note from behind the scenes: This image was just generated by AI—the white line beneath the biggest stall at the night market is the $75,451 figure in the 8-K filing. The data is real; the story is made up. One real detail: Monday’s 8-K (November 9) will say whether it kept buying at the lows.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: If Monday’s 8-K says, “We didn’t buy a single coin this week,” would you think it got cold feet, or that it finally learned to wait and see? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC
#Strategy #Bitcoin
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The market is down 6%, but it’s up 3% against the trend: What is this new ticket for a staking-based ETF really worth?The entire market is down today. BTC is around $75,700, down 6% over 24 hours, while ETH is down 7.4%, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the market. Yet one unexpected name is near the top of the gainers list: INJ, trading at around $8.05–$8.35, up about 3% against the trend.
Its rise isn’t because its fundamentals suddenly improved overnight. It’s because it just got a new ticket yesterday: Nasdaq approved the listing of Canary’s staking-based INJ ETF (INJC). Here’s the bottom line: the real value of this ticket isn’t the word “approved,” but whether the numbers add up in three areas—yield, liquidity, and demand. If they don’t, the ticket is just a brief taste of a limit-up rally.
The market is down 6%, but it’s up 3% against the trend: What is this new ticket for a staking-based ETF really worth?
The entire market is down today. BTC is around $75,700, down 6% over 24 hours, while ETH is down 7.4%, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the market. Yet one unexpected name is near the top of the gainers list: INJ, trading at around $8.05–$8.35, up about 3% against the trend.
Its rise isn’t because its fundamentals suddenly improved overnight. It’s because it just got a new ticket yesterday: Nasdaq approved the listing of Canary’s staking-based INJ ETF (INJC). Here’s the bottom line: the real value of this ticket isn’t the word “approved,” but whether the numbers add up in three areas—yield, liquidity, and demand. If they don’t, the ticket is just a brief taste of a limit-up rally.
Its rise isn’t because its fundamentals suddenly improved overnight. It’s because it just got a new ticket yesterday: Nasdaq approved the listing of Canary’s staking-based INJ ETF (INJC). Here’s the bottom line: the real value of this ticket isn’t the word “approved,” but whether the numbers add up in three areas—yield, liquidity, and demand. If they don’t, the ticket is just a brief taste of a limit-up rally.
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This morning, $BTC was around $76,200, down about 5.7% over 24 hours. It fell overnight from $80,800, dipping as low as $75,200 intraday. The trigger wasn’t crypto: U.S. tech stocks tumbled, with the Nasdaq down 5.52% in a single day. Expectations of tighter regulation after the midterm elections are building, and more than $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, with longs bearing the brunt.
There are two key timestamps to watch today. First, it’s $HYPE ’s unlock day. As I broke down in yesterday’s deep dive, the model schedule showed 9.92 million tokens, but only 180,000 were actually released (about $15.7 million). Yet HYPE was around $77 this morning, down about 8% over 24 hours—falling harder than the broader market. The unlock can’t take the blame for this drop: the whole market is down, not just those 180,000 tokens. Second, around $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit today at 08:00 UTC. Max pain is $79,000, with 24,912 calls versus 8,223 puts in open interest. The price would need to move toward $79,000 for most contracts to expire worthless, still about $3,000 above the current price.
There are a couple of gainers bucking the trend: LIT at around $3.52 (+5.4%) and ZEC at around $1,319 (+2.1%). But two green candles can’t offset a sea of red.
My take: ETFs had net inflows of about $75 million on November 4 (Fidelity bought in, BlackRock sold), so today’s drop first raises the question of whether leverage has been flushed out—not whether the unlock has happened. There are two things to watch: tonight’s U.S. October jobs data (8:30 p.m. Beijing time) and which way prices move after the options expire.
Risk reminder: Volatility is rising. Calculate your liquidation price before thinking about returns; this is not investment advice.
Do you think today’s red candle is one last shakeout before options expiry, or the start of another leg down?
No calls—just crunching the numbers.
This morning, $BTC was around $76,200, down about 5.7% over 24 hours. It fell overnight from $80,800, dipping as low as $75,200 intraday. The trigger wasn’t crypto: U.S. tech stocks tumbled, with the Nasdaq down 5.52% in a single day. Expectations of tighter regulation after the midterm elections are building, and more than $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, with longs bearing the brunt.
There are two key timestamps to watch today. First, it’s $HYPE ’s unlock day. As I broke down in yesterday’s deep dive, the model schedule showed 9.92 million tokens, but only 180,000 were actually released (about $15.7 million). Yet HYPE was around $77 this morning, down about 8% over 24 hours—falling harder than the broader market. The unlock can’t take the blame for this drop: the whole market is down, not just those 180,000 tokens. Second, around $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit today at 08:00 UTC. Max pain is $79,000, with 24,912 calls versus 8,223 puts in open interest. The price would need to move toward $79,000 for most contracts to expire worthless, still about $3,000 above the current price.
There are a couple of gainers bucking the trend: LIT at around $3.52 (+5.4%) and ZEC at around $1,319 (+2.1%). But two green candles can’t offset a sea of red.
My take: ETFs had net inflows of about $75 million on November 4 (Fidelity bought in, BlackRock sold), so today’s drop first raises the question of whether leverage has been flushed out—not whether the unlock has happened. There are two things to watch: tonight’s U.S. October jobs data (8:30 p.m. Beijing time) and which way prices move after the options expire.
Risk reminder: Volatility is rising. Calculate your liquidation price before thinking about returns; this is not investment advice.
Do you think today’s red candle is one last shakeout before options expiry, or the start of another leg down?
No calls—just crunching the numbers.
There are two key timestamps to watch today. First, it’s $HYPE ’s unlock day. As I broke down in yesterday’s deep dive, the model schedule showed 9.92 million tokens, but only 180,000 were actually released (about $15.7 million). Yet HYPE was around $77 this morning, down about 8% over 24 hours—falling harder than the broader market. The unlock can’t take the blame for this drop: the whole market is down, not just those 180,000 tokens. Second, around $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit today at 08:00 UTC. Max pain is $79,000, with 24,912 calls versus 8,223 puts in open interest. The price would need to move toward $79,000 for most contracts to expire worthless, still about $3,000 above the current price.
There are a couple of gainers bucking the trend: LIT at around $3.52 (+5.4%) and ZEC at around $1,319 (+2.1%). But two green candles can’t offset a sea of red.
My take: ETFs had net inflows of about $75 million on November 4 (Fidelity bought in, BlackRock sold), so today’s drop first raises the question of whether leverage has been flushed out—not whether the unlock has happened. There are two things to watch: tonight’s U.S. October jobs data (8:30 p.m. Beijing time) and which way prices move after the options expire.
Risk reminder: Volatility is rising. Calculate your liquidation price before thinking about returns; this is not investment advice.
Do you think today’s red candle is one last shakeout before options expiry, or the start of another leg down?
No calls—just crunching the numbers.
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Two days ago I said, “Six reboots without a fork doesn’t mean it’s fixed.” The very next day, the chain forked.Two days ago, I wrote a post here (The machine rebooted six times today, and the chain never forked once), ending with an honest caveat: not hitting a fork in six reboots doesn’t mean the root cause has been fixed.
The very next day, the chain forked.
On November 4, 2026, at 21:37, after the virtual machine rebooted, all four signing nodes came back up at once and created a 2v2 fork at block 1517343. The total difficulty of the two chains was exactly tied (3031949), and neither side yielded. The eligible block sealers were also blocking each other in the “recently signed” window, so the chain stalled. The fix took about 18 minutes: stop s1 from sealing blocks, roll its chain head back one block to before the fork, and force it to handshake with s2 again. In the end, s4 sealed block 1517344 on the other chain, strictly overtaking it in total difficulty, and the entire network automatically converged through a reorganization.
Two days ago I said, “Six reboots without a fork doesn’t mean it’s fixed.” The very next day, the chain forked.
Two days ago, I wrote a post here (The machine rebooted six times today, and the chain never forked once), ending with an honest caveat: not hitting a fork in six reboots doesn’t mean the root cause has been fixed.
The very next day, the chain forked.
On November 4, 2026, at 21:37, after the virtual machine rebooted, all four signing nodes came back up at once and created a 2v2 fork at block 1517343. The total difficulty of the two chains was exactly tied (3031949), and neither side yielded. The eligible block sealers were also blocking each other in the “recently signed” window, so the chain stalled. The fix took about 18 minutes: stop s1 from sealing blocks, roll its chain head back one block to before the fork, and force it to handshake with s2 again. In the end, s4 sealed block 1517344 on the other chain, strictly overtaking it in total difficulty, and the entire network automatically converged through a reorganization.
The very next day, the chain forked.
On November 4, 2026, at 21:37, after the virtual machine rebooted, all four signing nodes came back up at once and created a 2v2 fork at block 1517343. The total difficulty of the two chains was exactly tied (3031949), and neither side yielded. The eligible block sealers were also blocking each other in the “recently signed” window, so the chain stalled. The fix took about 18 minutes: stop s1 from sealing blocks, roll its chain head back one block to before the fork, and force it to handshake with s2 again. In the end, s4 sealed block 1517344 on the other chain, strictly overtaking it in total difficulty, and the entire network automatically converged through a reorganization.
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Oldest Well in the Night Market Is Being Sealed Tonight”
The oldest shop in the night market is getting a new clock tonight.
Zcash’s NU7 upgrade activation window is either today or tomorrow—not measured by the clock, but by the blockchain reaching 3,543,405. Once it crosses that line, the block target time will drop from 75 seconds to 25 seconds—three times faster. The wait for a transaction confirmation will shrink from the time it takes to drink a cup of tea to the blink of an eye.
But don’t rush to applaud. Speed comes at a cost. The subsidy per block will also be divided by three. Daily issuance stays the same, and the 21 million coin cap remains untouched; but 60% of every transaction fee will be siphoned into a “Future Reserve,” leaving miners with just 40%. Those funds won’t be released again until around 2031. The chain speeds up, and the money gets locked away first.
The real sting is the old well in the shop’s back yard. Sprout, Zcash’s original privacy pool, will no longer support v4 transactions after activation. The roughly 12,226 ZEC still inside—worth about $16 million at current prices—will never be withdrawable again. In mid-October, there were still about 22,300 coins in there. Half the people moved theirs out before the well was sealed; the other half probably forgot, or never got the message. The coins weren’t burned, and the keys weren’t taken away—it’s just that the path is gone.
The price has already weighed in on the upgrade: ZEC is around $1,315 today, up about 8% over 24 hours and about 11% over two days. Of the roughly $18.29 million in positions liquidated over the past 24 hours, about 80% were shorts. At the end of September, it reached about $1,653; a year ago, it was still only around $450. The gains are real, and so is the lock on the well.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the old clock, green lantern, and rusted lock are all metaphors for tonight. The data is real; the story is made up. One more real detail: just before the upgrade, Zebra 7.0.0 released 7 security patches (5 critical, 2 moderate)—before speeding up the chain, they made sure to bolt the doors and windows shut.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: the upgrade makes the chain faster, but permanently seals an old well. Do you see this as “cleaning up old business,” or “making users pay tuition for the upgrade with their coins”? Let’s talk in the comments.
$ZEC
#Zcash #NU7 upgrade
AI-generated; the story is fictional
“The Oldest Well in the Night Market Is Being Sealed Tonight”
The oldest shop in the night market is getting a new clock tonight.
Zcash’s NU7 upgrade activation window is either today or tomorrow—not measured by the clock, but by the blockchain reaching 3,543,405. Once it crosses that line, the block target time will drop from 75 seconds to 25 seconds—three times faster. The wait for a transaction confirmation will shrink from the time it takes to drink a cup of tea to the blink of an eye.
But don’t rush to applaud. Speed comes at a cost. The subsidy per block will also be divided by three. Daily issuance stays the same, and the 21 million coin cap remains untouched; but 60% of every transaction fee will be siphoned into a “Future Reserve,” leaving miners with just 40%. Those funds won’t be released again until around 2031. The chain speeds up, and the money gets locked away first.
The real sting is the old well in the shop’s back yard. Sprout, Zcash’s original privacy pool, will no longer support v4 transactions after activation. The roughly 12,226 ZEC still inside—worth about $16 million at current prices—will never be withdrawable again. In mid-October, there were still about 22,300 coins in there. Half the people moved theirs out before the well was sealed; the other half probably forgot, or never got the message. The coins weren’t burned, and the keys weren’t taken away—it’s just that the path is gone.
The price has already weighed in on the upgrade: ZEC is around $1,315 today, up about 8% over 24 hours and about 11% over two days. Of the roughly $18.29 million in positions liquidated over the past 24 hours, about 80% were shorts. At the end of September, it reached about $1,653; a year ago, it was still only around $450. The gains are real, and so is the lock on the well.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the old clock, green lantern, and rusted lock are all metaphors for tonight. The data is real; the story is made up. One more real detail: just before the upgrade, Zebra 7.0.0 released 7 security patches (5 critical, 2 moderate)—before speeding up the chain, they made sure to bolt the doors and windows shut.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: the upgrade makes the chain faster, but permanently seals an old well. Do you see this as “cleaning up old business,” or “making users pay tuition for the upgrade with their coins”? Let’s talk in the comments.
$ZEC
#Zcash #NU7 upgrade
“The Oldest Well in the Night Market Is Being Sealed Tonight”
The oldest shop in the night market is getting a new clock tonight.
Zcash’s NU7 upgrade activation window is either today or tomorrow—not measured by the clock, but by the blockchain reaching 3,543,405. Once it crosses that line, the block target time will drop from 75 seconds to 25 seconds—three times faster. The wait for a transaction confirmation will shrink from the time it takes to drink a cup of tea to the blink of an eye.
But don’t rush to applaud. Speed comes at a cost. The subsidy per block will also be divided by three. Daily issuance stays the same, and the 21 million coin cap remains untouched; but 60% of every transaction fee will be siphoned into a “Future Reserve,” leaving miners with just 40%. Those funds won’t be released again until around 2031. The chain speeds up, and the money gets locked away first.
The real sting is the old well in the shop’s back yard. Sprout, Zcash’s original privacy pool, will no longer support v4 transactions after activation. The roughly 12,226 ZEC still inside—worth about $16 million at current prices—will never be withdrawable again. In mid-October, there were still about 22,300 coins in there. Half the people moved theirs out before the well was sealed; the other half probably forgot, or never got the message. The coins weren’t burned, and the keys weren’t taken away—it’s just that the path is gone.
The price has already weighed in on the upgrade: ZEC is around $1,315 today, up about 8% over 24 hours and about 11% over two days. Of the roughly $18.29 million in positions liquidated over the past 24 hours, about 80% were shorts. At the end of September, it reached about $1,653; a year ago, it was still only around $450. The gains are real, and so is the lock on the well.
A note from behind the scenes: this image was just generated by AI—the old clock, green lantern, and rusted lock are all metaphors for tonight. The data is real; the story is made up. One more real detail: just before the upgrade, Zebra 7.0.0 released 7 security patches (5 critical, 2 moderate)—before speeding up the chain, they made sure to bolt the doors and windows shut.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: the upgrade makes the chain faster, but permanently seals an old well. Do you see this as “cleaning up old business,” or “making users pay tuition for the upgrade with their coins”? Let’s talk in the comments.
$ZEC
#Zcash #NU7 upgrade
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Verified
9.92M or 180,000 tokens? HYPE unlocks tomorrow—let’s separate out the three numbers first(9.92M or 180,000 tokens? HYPE unlocks tomorrow—let’s separate out the three numbers first)
Tomorrow, November 6, HYPE has an unlock. On the same day, two figures are on the table, and they differ by 55 times: the unlock calendar from Tokenomist lists 9.917 million tokens, worth about $860 million at the current price; Hyperliquid Labs’ official figure on Discord for the actual distribution is 180,000 tokens, worth about $15.7 million.
A 55-fold difference—which figure represents the coins that will actually enter circulation tomorrow? Until we clear that up, any discussion about whether “the unlock will crash the market” is just speculation.
First, what is this token? HYPE is the native token of Hyperliquid, an on-chain exchange built specifically for derivatives. It’s used for staking, governance, gas, and fee discounts. Third parties that want to launch their own perpetual markets on the platform through the HIP-3 mechanism must first stake 500,000 tokens as collateral. Core contributors hold about 23.8% of the total supply, around 238 million tokens, which vest and unlock monthly.
9.92M or 180,000 tokens? HYPE unlocks tomorrow—let’s separate out the three numbers first
(9.92M or 180,000 tokens? HYPE unlocks tomorrow—let’s separate out the three numbers first)
Tomorrow, November 6, HYPE has an unlock. On the same day, two figures are on the table, and they differ by 55 times: the unlock calendar from Tokenomist lists 9.917 million tokens, worth about $860 million at the current price; Hyperliquid Labs’ official figure on Discord for the actual distribution is 180,000 tokens, worth about $15.7 million.
A 55-fold difference—which figure represents the coins that will actually enter circulation tomorrow? Until we clear that up, any discussion about whether “the unlock will crash the market” is just speculation.
First, what is this token? HYPE is the native token of Hyperliquid, an on-chain exchange built specifically for derivatives. It’s used for staking, governance, gas, and fee discounts. Third parties that want to launch their own perpetual markets on the platform through the HIP-3 mechanism must first stake 500,000 tokens as collateral. Core contributors hold about 23.8% of the total supply, around 238 million tokens, which vest and unlock monthly.
Tomorrow, November 6, HYPE has an unlock. On the same day, two figures are on the table, and they differ by 55 times: the unlock calendar from Tokenomist lists 9.917 million tokens, worth about $860 million at the current price; Hyperliquid Labs’ official figure on Discord for the actual distribution is 180,000 tokens, worth about $15.7 million.
A 55-fold difference—which figure represents the coins that will actually enter circulation tomorrow? Until we clear that up, any discussion about whether “the unlock will crash the market” is just speculation.
First, what is this token? HYPE is the native token of Hyperliquid, an on-chain exchange built specifically for derivatives. It’s used for staking, governance, gas, and fee discounts. Third parties that want to launch their own perpetual markets on the platform through the HIP-3 mechanism must first stake 500,000 tokens as collateral. Core contributors hold about 23.8% of the total supply, around 238 million tokens, which vest and unlock monthly.
1
1
1
1.5k
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AI-generated; the story is fictional
《Midterm Election Night: A Round Trip Through the Night Market》
When trading started at night, the night market dimmed first. Bitcoin slid from around $77,800 to just above $75,700. Its intraday low of $75,736 was the lowest wick since September 16—and before the stallholders could react, half the lights had already gone out.
Then, before dawn, the lights came back on by themselves. From its low, the price climbed all the way back to $78,164—a $2,428 round trip in a single night. It was still hovering around $77,900 near the close, up about 2% on the day. The privacy stall next door lit up first: ZEC gained about 12% in a day, and XMR followed with a gain of around 5%. They were the fastest runners in the whole market.
But the story wasn’t over by midday. During the day, the price slid back toward $76,000, giving back some of the overnight rebound. In other words, the night market made a round trip, and the ledger had just one line left: buyers stepped in on the way down, but they weren’t planning to keep buying all the way up.
So don’t treat a single overnight candle as a verdict. When you see a night like this—“down first, up next, then back down”—I ask only three questions: First, who caught the falling knife—spot buyers, or shorts closing their contracts? Second, did the whole street light up, or just a few stalls? Was it only ZEC shining that night, or was everyone lit up together? Third, are the lights still on the next day? If the price can’t hold $78,000, that round trip was just a false alarm in the night.
One behind-the-scenes note: this image was just generated by AI. The green candle-shaped lantern that first fell and then rose in the night market is tonight’s round-trip candle.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: When you see a wick like this at night—“break below, then recover”—do you take it as a reversal signal, or just volatility itself?
$BTC $ZEC
#比特币 #MidtermElections
AI-generated; the story is fictional
《Midterm Election Night: A Round Trip Through the Night Market》
When trading started at night, the night market dimmed first. Bitcoin slid from around $77,800 to just above $75,700. Its intraday low of $75,736 was the lowest wick since September 16—and before the stallholders could react, half the lights had already gone out.
Then, before dawn, the lights came back on by themselves. From its low, the price climbed all the way back to $78,164—a $2,428 round trip in a single night. It was still hovering around $77,900 near the close, up about 2% on the day. The privacy stall next door lit up first: ZEC gained about 12% in a day, and XMR followed with a gain of around 5%. They were the fastest runners in the whole market.
But the story wasn’t over by midday. During the day, the price slid back toward $76,000, giving back some of the overnight rebound. In other words, the night market made a round trip, and the ledger had just one line left: buyers stepped in on the way down, but they weren’t planning to keep buying all the way up.
So don’t treat a single overnight candle as a verdict. When you see a night like this—“down first, up next, then back down”—I ask only three questions: First, who caught the falling knife—spot buyers, or shorts closing their contracts? Second, did the whole street light up, or just a few stalls? Was it only ZEC shining that night, or was everyone lit up together? Third, are the lights still on the next day? If the price can’t hold $78,000, that round trip was just a false alarm in the night.
One behind-the-scenes note: this image was just generated by AI. The green candle-shaped lantern that first fell and then rose in the night market is tonight’s round-trip candle.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: When you see a wick like this at night—“break below, then recover”—do you take it as a reversal signal, or just volatility itself?
$BTC $ZEC
#比特币 #MidtermElections
《Midterm Election Night: A Round Trip Through the Night Market》
When trading started at night, the night market dimmed first. Bitcoin slid from around $77,800 to just above $75,700. Its intraday low of $75,736 was the lowest wick since September 16—and before the stallholders could react, half the lights had already gone out.
Then, before dawn, the lights came back on by themselves. From its low, the price climbed all the way back to $78,164—a $2,428 round trip in a single night. It was still hovering around $77,900 near the close, up about 2% on the day. The privacy stall next door lit up first: ZEC gained about 12% in a day, and XMR followed with a gain of around 5%. They were the fastest runners in the whole market.
But the story wasn’t over by midday. During the day, the price slid back toward $76,000, giving back some of the overnight rebound. In other words, the night market made a round trip, and the ledger had just one line left: buyers stepped in on the way down, but they weren’t planning to keep buying all the way up.
So don’t treat a single overnight candle as a verdict. When you see a night like this—“down first, up next, then back down”—I ask only three questions: First, who caught the falling knife—spot buyers, or shorts closing their contracts? Second, did the whole street light up, or just a few stalls? Was it only ZEC shining that night, or was everyone lit up together? Third, are the lights still on the next day? If the price can’t hold $78,000, that round trip was just a false alarm in the night.
One behind-the-scenes note: this image was just generated by AI. The green candle-shaped lantern that first fell and then rose in the night market is tonight’s round-trip candle.
No calls to buy or sell—just doing the math.
The real question: When you see a wick like this at night—“break below, then recover”—do you take it as a reversal signal, or just volatility itself?
$BTC $ZEC
#比特币 #MidtermElections
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Morning market: $BTC bounced overnight from a low of $75,700 to around $80,600, up about 4.9% over 24 hours. The round trip on election night has completed its second leg: first it tested its lowest level since mid-September, then reclaimed $80,000. Leading the gainers were $STX at around $0.36 (+12%), INJ at around $7.98 (+11%), and RENDER at around $1.61 (+9.3%)—the rally wasn’t limited to the broader market.
A small footnote on fund flows: on November 4, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $35.1 million, ending three straight days of outflows totaling roughly $1.16 billion. But that amount only counts as “stopping the bleeding,” and IBIT and FBTC had not yet reported for the day, so the figure may be revised. My take: spot buyers moved first to scoop up the lows, with ETFs following. Whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether ETFs bring in money for a second consecutive day, and whether the push to the $81,000 high comes with volume. Risk reminder: chasing a one-day V-shaped reversal is the easiest way to get stuck holding the bag. This is not investment advice. Do you think $80,000 is the bottom this time, or just a stopping point on the way down?
No calls—just the numbers.
#比特币 #MorningMarket
Morning market: $BTC bounced overnight from a low of $75,700 to around $80,600, up about 4.9% over 24 hours. The round trip on election night has completed its second leg: first it tested its lowest level since mid-September, then reclaimed $80,000. Leading the gainers were $STX at around $0.36 (+12%), INJ at around $7.98 (+11%), and RENDER at around $1.61 (+9.3%)—the rally wasn’t limited to the broader market.
A small footnote on fund flows: on November 4, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $35.1 million, ending three straight days of outflows totaling roughly $1.16 billion. But that amount only counts as “stopping the bleeding,” and IBIT and FBTC had not yet reported for the day, so the figure may be revised. My take: spot buyers moved first to scoop up the lows, with ETFs following. Whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether ETFs bring in money for a second consecutive day, and whether the push to the $81,000 high comes with volume. Risk reminder: chasing a one-day V-shaped reversal is the easiest way to get stuck holding the bag. This is not investment advice. Do you think $80,000 is the bottom this time, or just a stopping point on the way down?
No calls—just the numbers.
#比特币 #MorningMarket
A small footnote on fund flows: on November 4, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $35.1 million, ending three straight days of outflows totaling roughly $1.16 billion. But that amount only counts as “stopping the bleeding,” and IBIT and FBTC had not yet reported for the day, so the figure may be revised. My take: spot buyers moved first to scoop up the lows, with ETFs following. Whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether ETFs bring in money for a second consecutive day, and whether the push to the $81,000 high comes with volume. Risk reminder: chasing a one-day V-shaped reversal is the easiest way to get stuck holding the bag. This is not investment advice. Do you think $80,000 is the bottom this time, or just a stopping point on the way down?
No calls—just the numbers.
#比特币 #MorningMarket
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The Paper’s In, but Only for Ten Assets: A Day-Two Check of Binance’s Proof of ReservesTwo days ago, I left three questions here for a self-check: Is the balance on the list? Is the ratio a snapshot or real-time? Does it cover customer balances or all liabilities? Tonight, the answers are in: the paper’s been turned in, but only for ten assets.
First, let’s get the timeline straight. In its November 2 update, Binance announced that the complete zero-knowledge proof for the October 31, 00:00 UTC snapshot had been generated: a Merkle tree records customer balances, while a zk-SNARK proves that total assets cover them at least 1:1, without disclosing individual balances. The ten assets are BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC. Among the disclosed ratios, BTC is at 100.04%, BNB at 101.30%, USDC at 106.08%, ETH and USDT at 100% each, and XRP at 100.99%.
The Paper’s In, but Only for Ten Assets: A Day-Two Check of Binance’s Proof of Reserves
Two days ago, I left three questions here for a self-check: Is the balance on the list? Is the ratio a snapshot or real-time? Does it cover customer balances or all liabilities? Tonight, the answers are in: the paper’s been turned in, but only for ten assets.
First, let’s get the timeline straight. In its November 2 update, Binance announced that the complete zero-knowledge proof for the October 31, 00:00 UTC snapshot had been generated: a Merkle tree records customer balances, while a zk-SNARK proves that total assets cover them at least 1:1, without disclosing individual balances. The ten assets are BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC. Among the disclosed ratios, BTC is at 100.04%, BNB at 101.30%, USDC at 106.08%, ETH and USDT at 100% each, and XRP at 100.99%.
First, let’s get the timeline straight. In its November 2 update, Binance announced that the complete zero-knowledge proof for the October 31, 00:00 UTC snapshot had been generated: a Merkle tree records customer balances, while a zk-SNARK proves that total assets cover them at least 1:1, without disclosing individual balances. The ten assets are BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC. Among the disclosed ratios, BTC is at 100.04%, BNB at 101.30%, USDC at 106.08%, ETH and USDT at 100% each, and XRP at 100.99%.
299
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