I keep looking at Bitcoin, Treasury yields and the dollar, and theyโre all basically waiting for the same answer: what does CPI say?
The NFP report gave the hawks something to work with. 162K jobs were added in August against expectations near 56K, while unemployment remained at 4.1%.
But hereโs the part I find interesting wage growth slowed to 3.1%, so the labor market isnโt giving the Fed a completely one-sided signal.
Thatโs why CPI matters so much.
If inflation surprises higher, the Fed may have a hard time ignoring the hike argument. If inflation comes in soft, I think holding rates becomes easier to defend.
the strong employment report raised hike expectations, but officials were still waiting for CPI before drawing the bigger conclusion.
Personally, Iโm leaning hold, but I wouldnโt be comfortable betting heavily before the CPI number.
Crypto can move fast when the Fed narrative changes.
Are you positioned for a hike, or expecting the Fed to hold?
You donโt need to start over. You just need to keep moving forward.
๐ฅ Turn progress into momentum. ๐ฏ Stay focused on what matters. ๐ช Let discipline carry you when motivation fades. ๐ Take small steps that create big changes.
Remember:
Your competition is yesterdayโs version of you.
Show up. Stay consistent. Keep growing. Let your energy speak louder than your excuses. โจ