币圈大太子

How much have you missed out on in the past half month? Steadily with the prince's brothers, the highest profit was 6 times, and the one with the most profit reached 15,000 U last night, peaking at 50,000 U. The prince emphasized medium-term spot trading last month and informed you of the outcome of short-term trading. Most of the brothers were eager to make quick money last month; now, compared to those in short-term trading, look at how much profit the brothers on the prince's medium-term spot trading team have made. They have steadily won at the starting line, while those who play short-term are nervously facing zero. For those people, it’s a question of whether they are even alive, and this is before the market has even started, as the prince said. The current starting amount and the plan to use five times the funds next month to exchange for the space below is already a bit late; the bottom weekly price keeps rising, one is 10 times and another is 50 times. In the cryptocurrency world, a day is like ten years in the human world. The prince led you from Ethereum at 2,250, and it only took 15 days. The prince has achieved 20 consecutive victories in short-term trading, and the doubling in the private domain from half a month ago also took only 10 days. Currently, the brothers on the team who started following 15 days ago have basically made around double the profit, with the highest being 6 times, steady and secure. While outside there is a chorus of wailing, with contract liquidation, missed opportunities, chasing highs, and being shaken off the bus, buying trash coins, all risks abound. At the moment when the bull market is roaring, the prince is a safe barrier, and medium-term spot trading is rushing towards 50 times. Completing one major upward wave after another.

Not every trade I lead will make money. For example, if a coin rises 50 times or 100 times, you might still be losing money, and the reason lies in cognitive issues. Just like the 500,000 U trade I led at the beginning of 2024 with a 17 times return on Pepe, out of 170 people who followed the trade, 80 lost money, half made about 1 time profit and left, while the other half broke even, only 7 people achieved over 5 times profit. Therefore, if you are not someone with understanding and composure, and if you lack either of these, I advise you not to follow me, because if you do, you will definitely lose money. My actual trades and the coins I buy are shared daily through videos with the brothers. If you are still like a headless fly relying on my performance, I assure you that you won't find anyone else in the Chinese-speaking world who can lead you to profit. I shared a video about medium-term thinking a couple of days ago!

Most KOLs never provide direction, or simply cannot provide direction.
They do not study the bottom chips, do not allow you to have patience, and only promote the short-term 'versatility', as if not flipping back and forth every day is letting the market down.
Today, those who are bearish on altcoins will push you to buy coins again after the market rises, and after it goes from 1 to 10, they will say it will rise to 13, but the lessons from the beginning of the year tell you that most people who entered the market last year have dropped more than 20 times.

The market has no memory. When the prince bought Ethereum at the bottom in 2000, what were those big shots doing? Have you all forgotten? What were they doing when it rose to 4000? They started looking at where to go long or short again,

What is the essence?
It turns you from investing into gambling.

The essence of playing short-term is that those who did not catch the mid-term are forced to play short-term.

Currently devouring the world of cryptocurrency (with only a pitiful market value of 30 trillion 😂)

Once tightly pursuing the cryptocurrency sector, the SEC
while penalizing people, was also copying homework

Now they simply stop pretending
and personally come to educate you
about what a cryptocurrency wallet is
how to store cryptocurrency assets
what custody means
what self-custody means

Previously it was
"This is illegal"
now it is
"Come, let me teach you how to use it"

Powell has about 6 months left in his term, and the issue is no longer 'whether there will be a change in personnel,' but rather 'who will take over and when pricing will begin.'
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has made it clear that he does not want to take this position, which is essentially equivalent to voluntarily exiting. The market's default optimal solution is Hassett.

Why him?
First, his position is extremely clear. Hassett openly supports cryptocurrency, which is crucial in the current political environment.
Second, he has repeatedly emphasized that 'existing economic data supports further interest rate cuts,' which is not ambiguous; he is clearly taking a side.
Third, his economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump’s; to put it bluntly, they are on the same team.

So the logic is simple.
Once Hassett is confirmed by the market to enter the succession pathway, the Fed’s 'hawkish-neutral' pricing will be quickly overturned, replaced by 'policy-driven easing expectations.' This is also why I've been saying that in the second half of next year, the probability of further interest rate cuts is not just slightly increasing, but structurally certain.

However, there is a point that many people easily misunderstand.
Interest rate cuts do not mean unlimited liquidity.

The impact of this liquidity set will basically be exhausted by around May next year.
The subsequent interest rate cuts resemble more of a 'policy confirmation' and 'emotional endorsement,' rather than a new round of massive liquidity.

In other words,
the first half of the year is pricing driven by liquidity expectations,
the second half is driven by the political cycle + policy direction for valuation.
To put it bluntly, the market only speculates on expectations, but once they materialize, it will push vigorously.

The Bitcoin rainbow chart predicts that the price in 2026 will be between $150,000 and $440,000. Old OGs all know the gold content of the rainbow chart.

Looking back, why did those old OGs, industry leaders, emphasize the current round of Bitcoin at $400,000 to $500,000 a year ago? The Americans have definitely been putting effort into cryptocurrency over the past two years, but looking at the market value, the crypto market is relatively unchanged compared to four years ago, still at $3 trillion, while the U.S. stock market is at $60 trillion, and gold is at $26 trillion. The Prince mentioned before that even if Bitcoin is $130,000 each, it is only one-tenth of gold. However, since the inception of the crypto market, its growth rate has been much faster than that of gold and the U.S. stock market. Their growth rate from 0 to 1 might take 30 years, while the crypto market only took 3 years. In 2017 it was $800 billion, in 2021 it was $3 trillion. So why does the Prince emphasize this round's minimum market value of $7.5 trillion? By comparing the market share of Bitcoin and Ethereum in previous bull markets, we can estimate the lowest point of this round. Moreover, this calculation is based on the previous halving growth.

Many people are shorting now, not because they are smarter
but because they were 'fed' by the main players

Staying flat at high levels
but crashing down when it drops
After several times
bullish confidence has been shattered
bears start to feel
'Oh, so shorting is this comfortable'

What are the main players doing at this time?
Nurturing bulls when in high-level fluctuations
Nurturing bears when in low-level fluctuations

The more bears do it, the smoother it gets
The more they increase their positions
Cognition begins to form inertia
As soon as there’s a rebound, they short
As soon as there’s a rise, they think it’s a false breakout

But this is an incremental market
Medium to long-term
Bears have never been the ultimate winners
A real big market
Must be pulling up with the bears

When the bear positions pile up to the extreme
Emotions align to the point of being unable to align any further
That one
Is not a reaction for you
It's directly sending you away

The market never reasons with retail investors
It only exploits your 'experience'

Mature speculators neither short nor long,
but do the right side; the first step in leverage is already wrong.

How you miss Bitcoin is how you miss Ethereum; how you miss Ethereum is how you miss altcoins.

The first layer, the Bitcoin stage, filters for trend and cycle awareness.
Those who miss Bitcoin lack trend behavior and cycle behavior.
They constantly interpret short-term fluctuations, taking oscillations and news as direction, and treating pullbacks as reversals.
The lowest point clearly appears, yet due to a lack of mid-term thinking, they can only jump back and forth in emotions, ultimately missing the main trend time and again.

The second layer, the Ethereum stage, filters for execution and position stability.
When BTC has already established the cycle direction, Ethereum provides opportunities that are pro-cyclical and low-understanding cost.
Those who miss ETH do not fundamentally lack understanding, but are unable to convert their judgments into sustained positions, always exhausting themselves between "almost there" and "wait a bit longer."

The third layer, the altcoin ecosystem stage, filters for the highest level of market adaptability and anti-human nature awareness.
This is the ultimate filter of the entire cycle.
The prince made it very clear in yesterday's live stream that when the main force oscillates at high Bitcoin levels, it is nurturing longs, and when it oscillates at low Bitcoin levels, it is similarly cultivating shorts.
Meanwhile, altcoins have been completely conditioned to "short altcoins and look down on altcoins" through four to five years of continuous decline.

Now, as soon as you mention the three words "altcoins," nine and a half out of ten people will criticize you.
This is not rational judgment; it is a conditioned reflex trained by a long bear market.
The prince has repeatedly stated before that
altcoins are an entire industry's ecological layer. They are tied up with too much.
The industry needs altcoins, and bull markets cannot do without altcoins. Because without altcoins, the first to disappear are not retail investors, but the entire industry!

When a sector falls to a point where no one can accept it, can discuss it, and is left only with ridicule,
it often enters the "unrefusable price range."
This is not an emotional judgment; it is an inevitable result of ecology and cycles.

So in this cycle,
those who miss Bitcoin are likely to miss Ethereum,
and those who miss Ethereum will almost inevitably miss altcoins.

Those who are calling for shorts now will certainly say they "have been bullish for a long time" in the future. The prince has always said that without mid-term thinking, chasing highs, selling out, missing out, cutting heads, forced shorts, and liquidation, all the problems will find you.

Gambling
is betting on "short-term uncertain fluctuations."
It does not care about trends, does not care about probability structures, only cares about whether the next move is up or down.
Essentially, it is about using emotions, luck, and the thrill to fight against randomness.
Therefore, it relies on uncontrollable events.

Speculation
acknowledges short-term unpredictability but is certain that long-term events will occur.
It does not bet on "whether it will rise," but waits for "when it will rise."
It does not bet on single-point results but bets on cyclical trends and time.
Therefore, it relies on structural inevitability.

The market must have
cycles
trends
emotional extremes
liquidity turning points

Speculation does: wait
Gambling does: guess

The difference between gambling and speculation is: the former bets on market fluctuations, while the latter waits for the inevitable rises and falls of the market. In trading, gambling will not succeed.

KFC event ended

The volatile market is about to end, prepare to welcome new highs!

First (Retail Sentiment) Most people have forgotten one thing: when the main force was in high volatility, why did a large number of long positions get liquidated when it suddenly dropped? The reason is that during high volatility, the main force was nurturing long positions. Similarly, during low volatility, the main force is doing the same thing, which is cultivating short positions. However, the cryptocurrency market is an incremental market, money is constantly being printed, so from a medium to long-term perspective, shorts are certainly not going to outperform longs. But in the short term, it's unpredictable, so whether you are long or short, everything could go to zero.

Second (Macroeconomic Policy) The bearish factors have basically all been exhausted, the real cards that can be played have long been digested by the market, and the market hasn't been suppressed by long-term macroeconomic policies. This state itself does not support further deep declines. The market is always trading on expectations, and the liquidity has already been pumped up around 70-80%. The final push will come in May next year. Over the past four years, gold, US stocks, and silver have risen by tens of trillions of dollars, while the cryptocurrency market has remained unchanged compared to four years ago. The main force is very clear that the cryptocurrency market is incremental, while the rest is stock.

Third (Capital Structure) The contract volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum is already close to the freezing point. Bitcoin has almost liquidated all the liquidity from this year, and Ethereum has a similar structure; all the positions that could be liquidated have been. At this position, the most reasonable next step for the main force is not to continue to exhaust the shorts, but rather to pull the market up while holding onto the shorts, using the stop-loss and liquidation of short positions as fuel. After all, the cryptocurrency market is an incremental market, and from a medium to long-term perspective, the direction is certainly upward. This point is beyond doubt.

Why did a large number of long positions get liquidated when the main force suddenly dropped during the high-level fluctuations? The reason lies in the fact that during high-level fluctuations, the main force is nurturing long positions. Similarly, during low-level fluctuations, the main force is also doing something, which is cultivating short positions. However, the cryptocurrency market is an incremental market. In the medium to long term, shorts definitely cannot outperform longs, but in the short term, it is unpredictable. Therefore, regardless of whether you are long or short, everything goes to zero.

Essentially, it's about buying U.S. Treasury bonds, but let's elaborate a bit.

This is the Federal Reserve purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds in the secondary market through Treasury Buyback / SOMA operations.
It's not officially called QE, but its effects are very close to QE, which is why the market refers to it as invisible QE.

Let me clarify three points for you.

First, what is this money buying?
It’s buying U.S. Treasury bonds, not stocks or corporate bonds.
The Fed is buying back Treasury bonds from the market through its balance sheet.

Second, why is it not directly called QE?
Because it does not follow the traditional QE narrative of "open-ended unlimited balance sheet expansion," but instead,
it involves balance sheet reduction, pausing balance sheet reduction, and targeted bond purchases.
Nominally, it's termed "liquidity management," but the result is: base money flows back into the market.

Third, what does this mean for the market?
Buying U.S. Treasury bonds
U.S. Treasury yields are suppressed
Risk-free interest rates decline
Funds are forced to seek risk assets
Cryptocurrency assets and tech stocks all benefit.

It's correct to say it's buying U.S. Treasury bonds, but this is, in essence, a disguised form of monetary easing.
For the crypto market, the logic is that
it's not tightening. It's easing, a more favorable environment. For example, when you buy things on an e-commerce platform, such as national subsidies, Double 11, and 10 billion subsidies, it fundamentally means price reductions, it's just that they don't admit it, it's a terminology. But the actual actions remain unchanged.

Silver has currently increased by 1.7 trillion U in market value (total market value 3.4 trillion U). Gold has grown by 130 trillion U in market value (total market value 260 trillion U). Bitcoin currently has a market value of 1.9 trillion U. You should know that historically, Bitcoin's market value has exceeded that of silver by 30-50%. The big coin has just surpassed silver by doubling. The cryptocurrency market is undervalued; the main forces are waiting for what, just holding back their strength. It makes retail investors self-doubt and undermines confidence, all part of the past routine. The main forces wash the market, clearing it; this set of time costs has already been completed, and now we are just waiting for the rise. A bull market is selective and does not require so many people to believe in it. In the end, this lukewarm fluctuation is the market testing who the real diamond hands are.

The big pancake is about to change, the strategy of loosening has reached its end, and May next year is basically the final shot. The market is always speculating on expectations; looking at history, when expectations materialize, it's always a stagnant situation. The market always rises in hesitation, to put it bluntly, it's a sneak attack.