钱茹雨

Recently, we've been talking about position management, beginners can come and learn.

Just like this time's trading failure, let me explain how to manage positions. I normally control my initial position at 3%. Don't complain that the profit is small, as I will explain later.

Assuming there is a reversal during the process, we find the minor resistance lines in the market to add positions. Adding positions is not just about continuously adding until we explode, while adding we must also understand how to reduce positions. If the adding point is advantageous, we can reduce.

I’m worried that beginners might not understand: for example, if you go long at 90,000 and the market drops to the first support level (let's say 88,000), and your initial position is 2 BTC, you add another 2 BTC. At this point, your opening price will be around 89,000. If the market rebounds from 88,000, for example, to 88,500, you sell the 2 BTC you added, and the loss is just the 2 BTC multiplied by the 500-point fluctuation. If the market goes above 89,000, whether you sell 4 BTC (initial position plus added position) or 2 BTC (from the added position), you are still in a profit state.

As for why I control my initial position within 3%, it's because I cannot predict the market's movements 100%. Earning less is fine, not losing is good, and small losses are even better; it’s more stable. Like today, some fans opened positions at 10%, which is quite large. Assuming a margin rate, if your initial position is 1.5%, and the market does not meet expectations, even if you add once, you would still only reach 3%. When you sell the added position, the margin rate will return to around 1.5%. If you go in at 10% or even more, you can calculate your operational space and the probability of being targeted by market manipulators.

The original intention of opening a position is to make money, but I must mention that if you are stuck in a position and cannot add, you may be reluctant to cut losses. If you add, your liquidation price will be closer, and you'll panic, making random operations, or even blindly stop-loss. At that time, your stop-loss and your liquidation price will not be far apart; stop-loss means liquidation, and liquidation means stop-loss. Can you understand this?

Everyone has greed, and I do too. This method yields less profit compared to high positions, undoubtedly, but the risk is also lower. As long as you compound, proceed steadily, and with many market conditions: can 10 trades reach a 50% win rate? Can 10 trades result in 30% without losses? Can 10 trades have 20% with small losses exiting? You can switch this mindset to calculate the value of returns. In front of returns and principal, the principal is greater than the value of returns. With the principal, if this market fails, I can continue to be steady in the next wave and maybe earn it back.

Oh, I brought Duojun to short, that's why I'm not trusted, haha
Holding the profitable short position, I fell asleep and woke up scared
Tonight conservatively aiming for around 855...
#BTC $BTC

I never talk nonsense about shorting
#BTC $BTC

This short position has been rolled over, can I make it to the other side, brothers?
87 has rolled, and I was already prepared for a breakeven loss before rolling
Because I calculated my average price, rolling one lot at the pressure point of 87 is just right, if it gets hit, it gets hit
I went long and came back, so there's no need to dwell too much on short-term fluctuations
Just stick to the bearish view
Tonight, I'll take a look at around 84,000

I'm not really concerned about the non-farm payroll or Japan's interest rate hike
Aren't we in a daily level downtrend right now?
894 has been tested 7 times, and 876 has been tested 3 times
Only then did it come down
The rebound has been given, I'm satisfied
For me, the only operations left are adding to the short and replenishing the short, haha

Just a reminder, if you don't understand, take a look at the 15-minute chart
Isn't the long position coming up on low volume?
Do you expect this volume to go above 90,000? That's enough
Maybe 873 is the high point tonight, this place is short, looking down 1,000 points should be easy... stop loss should be set at 875
#BTC

Feeling comfortable, finally had a big bite
Wore it out
This long battle has finally straightened my back, haha
The decline has just begun, daily and weekly levels are on the way!

Night trading/morning trading rebound continues to short!
According to normal, the rebound shouldn't exceed 892 upwards, around 885
For those who have a bottom position of 896 with me, just raise the average price and it's done
#BTC $BTC

Oh no, it's down again
I have to say 895 is still tough
But I don't think I can hold on today
At this point, it's a boundary for me
You can choose your own direction now
Up 94 Down 895
This market now is a double top probe for the bears
For the bulls, it's a strong support pullback to continue pushing up to 96 and 100,000

Last night in the live stream, I said if 915 breaks, there's no need to look at 905 anymore
Just look directly at 895
Today's trading idea is based on the red line in chart 1
Reason: I don't look at news, I look at how this market behaves
Bitcoin needs to break the 94555 from yesterday, which it failed to do, and then made another second high
The daily chart shows a double top probe, and then 915 broke directly
The bullish trend has been damaged again
If it breaks 895, my short at 930 has to start, haha

Why still add positions in batches? Because support and resistance have switched
If you're bearish, you have to firmly short, control the average price, and manage your position
This is the basic quality of recognizing direction
#BTC $BTC

In terms of normal logic for this market
928 is the breakout entry point for right-side longs
But I think there isn't much space above tonight
So I will maintain short positions

Short near 928 Stop loss at 933
Looking down to 915 905 Just watching these two levels for now If these two prices can be reached, that would be good
Right-side short if it breaks below 923 Stop loss at 928
The levels I'm watching are the same as above
My overall view will not change for now.