逐梦小书童

As the story of value storage gives way to the pragmatism of payment settlement and information forecasting, the new rules of the game on Wall Street are being redefined.
The severe fluctuations and market corrections of 2025 serve as a stress test for the entire crypto ecosystem. As the market gasps for breath amid turmoil, top global financial institutions have not retreated; instead, they have drawn a new roadmap for 2026 with unprecedented clarity.
From BlackRock, Fidelity to JPMorgan, the outlook from authoritative institutions reveals a stark market landscape: the 'four-year cycle theory' is receding, and an era of 'structural maturity' driven by institutional capital, regulatory frameworks, and real utility has arrived.

2025 年结束了，这一年的金融市场可以说是几家欢喜几家愁。
得益于美联储降息以及 AI 投资热情的大幅上升，全球股市几乎实现了六年来的最大年度涨幅，黄金、白银、铂金屡创历史新高，传统资产交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。
但加密市场却成了这场盛宴中最大的输家。比特币 2025 年的收盘价低于年初，这是历史上首次在减半后一年录得年度下跌的情况。曾经被视为"数字黄金"的比特币，在这一轮大类资产上涨中掉了队。
市场对比特币长期周期结构的分歧，仍在持续扩大。有人说减半叙事失效了，四年周期被打破了；也有人认为这只是暂时的调整，真正的牛市还在后面。
2026 年刚开年，在祝大家新年快乐的同时，想聊聊 2026 年几个比较重要的货币政策和政治事件，看看它们会对加密行业产生怎样的影响。
市场押注美联储将降息 3 次
美联储年底开完最后一次会，发布的利率预测图挺保守的，2026 年可能只降一次息，也就是降 25 个基点。
不过，大部分机构和经济学家觉得没那么悲观，由于中期选举的政治压力以及美联储人事格局的变动，他们认为美联储在 2026 年的降息幅度或将超出市场预期，2026 年的降息次数 2 到 3 次比较合适。
高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行这些大机构，基本上都押注降 2 次，到时候利率会从当前的 3.50%-3.75% 降到 3%-3.25% 左右。花旗和中国银河证券胆子更大一些，他们认为会降 3 次，加起来 75 个基点。
图1 目前 polymarket 上预测 2026 年的降息次数概率最高的是 2 次
对于降息的具体月份，市场也有不少分析。
对于当政者而言，低利率有助于刺激经济，从而提升选举胜算。因此，为了在 2026 年 11 月 26 日的中期选举前显现政策效果，特朗普政府需要美联储在此之前大幅降息。考虑到货币政策传导至实体经济的滞后性，降息需要在 2026 年 10 月 28 日之前完成，因此 12 月的议息会议对于选举而言为时已晚。
因此各大机构对于 2026 年的降息时间预测基本都在上半年。
比如野村证券预测的具体月份是 6 月和 9 月；高盛认为是 3 月和 6 月；花旗和荷兰合作银行预测的时间点是 1 月、3 月和 9 月。
目前来看 6 月的降息是比较大的一次共识，因为美联储新任主席将于 2026 年 6 月 17-18 日首次主持 FOMC 会议，机构们押注该次会议宣布降息的可能性极大，因为新主席需要以此来表达对美国白宫的忠诚度。
美联储重启「买买买」
说完降息，还得聊聊美联储在 2025 年最后一次会议上干的另一件重要的事：通过一个「储备管理购买」(RMP) 的机制，重新开始买国债了。
从 2025 年 12 月 12 日开始，纽约联储每个月要买大约 400 亿美元的短期国库券。官方说法是这属于「技术性操作」，不算货币政策，只是为了保持银行系统里有「充足的准备金」，顺便为明年 4 月的报税季做准备，因为那时候钱会从银行流向财政部。
美联储的资产负债表现在大概是 6.54 万亿美元，如果按每月 400 亿买到明年 4 月，差不多会新增 1600 亿资产。
除了美联储买国债，还有个数据值得关注：财政部一般账户 (TGA)，可以理解成政府在美联储的活期账户。
上一次美国政府关门时，TGA 余额达到了达到 9590 亿美元的高点，大量现金累积在国库账户中。
图2 TGA 余额变化
距离美国政府开门已经过去了一个半月的时间，目前 TGA 的余额大约是 8500 亿美元。也就是说已经释放了 1000 亿美元的支出，为市场提供了不少流动性。
对加密货币市场来说，重要的是总流动性到底是在增加还是在减少。
所以乐观的说，RMP 购买 + TGA 大幅下降 + 2026 年底发放某种形式的关税红利，这几个因素叠加起来，或许能给全球流动性来个大推动，从而帮助加密市场的上涨。
日本为什么非要加息？
说完美联储，再把视角转到太平洋对岸的日本。
日本央行 12 月会议纪要显示，政策制定者们正在讨论继续加息的必要性，有些委员还呼吁要「适时」行动来控制通胀。彭博的调查显示，经济学家们觉得日本央行大概会在半年后再次加息，多数人认为这轮加息最终会停在 1.25%。日本央行前高管 Hideo Hayakawa 甚至表示，到 2027 年初，利率可能会升到 1.50%。
全球市场都在降息，日本为啥非要加息？
这事儿得从日本的处境说起。过去几十年，日本一直在跟通缩作斗争，利率长期接近零甚至是负的。但现在情况变了，通胀起来了，工资也开始涨了，日本央行终于有机会让货币政策「正常化」了。
问题是，日本背着一屁股债，政府债务占 GDP 的比例高达 200% 左右，日本国债收益率现已降至 2008 年前的水平。这么高的债务水平，如果利率升太快，政府的利息支出会爆炸式增长，债券市场可能扛不住。
更麻烦的是日元。在会议之前，日元已经跌到了 10 个月来的最弱水平，快接近 1 美元兑 160 日元的关口了，上次跌到这个位置，日本政府可是直接干预汇市的。按理说，加息应该让货币升值才对，但日元却反而还跌了。
核心矛盾在这儿：日本经济处于两难境地：要么救债券市场，要么救日元，两个没法同时救。日本央行一边说要加息控通胀，一边还得大量买入日本国债来稳住债券市场。加息让日元变贵，但同时狂买债券往里注水，这就有点像左手打右手。
现在日本国债收益率已经降到 2008 年以前的水平，但日元兑美元却几乎处于 35 年来的最低点。所以可以说，日本央行其实是在「牺牲日元来救债券市场」。
而日本加息，对加密市场的负面影响又是直接可见的，过去几次日本加息，加密市场都会暴跌一波。原因简单说就是华尔街和全球投机者在日本以接近 0% 的成本借入日元，换成美元，投入到比特币、美股等高收益资产中。相当于有人免费借你钱，让你去炒币，无息借款，你开不开心？就这样，借出去了几万亿美金。
当日本突然加息，借日元的成本上升了，这些机构就得平仓，于是卖掉手里的风险资产，包括比特币，来换回日元还钱。
那么新的一年日本加息，还会重演之前的下跌剧本吗？不一定。有几个原因：
第一是市场对日本加息已经有预期了，新的一年日本加息将不会那么袭击，市场已经开始重视这个影响因素来，并提前好几个月就在讨论，该调整仓位的早调整了，不像去年一样那么措手不及。
第二是如前文所说的，美联储在另一头降息。如果美联储 2026 年真的降 2-3 次息，美日利差会缩小，套息交易的吸引力本来就在下降，日本加个 0.25% 可能影响没那么大。
第三，流动性的大方向更重要。美联储换届，RMP 购买国债，TGA 账户可能继续释放流动性，甚至还有关税红利这些组合拳，毕竟没有人比特朗普更想在中期选举之前把经济数据做上去。如果美国那边的水龙头开得够大，日本这边的紧缩效应可能会被对冲掉大部分。
当然，短期波动肯定还是会有的。如果日本央行突然加快加息节奏，或者美联储那边降息没预期的那么激进，市场还是可能出现短期恐慌。但从中长期看，全球流动性的总体走向才是决定加密市场的核心变量。
如果民主党赢了中期选举？
说了这么多货币政策，但其实 2026 年还有个更直接影响加密行业的因素，那就是 11 月的美国中期选举。
特朗普和他的财政部长贝森特很清楚，要想在中期选举中保住共和党在国会的席位，就必须让美国老百姓在投票前感受到实实在在的经济好处。这也是为什么他们这么着急推动降息、发关税红利这些政策，都是为了能在中期选举前刺激经济。
毕竟目前来看民主党还是比较占优势的。前一两个月的地方选举给民主党打了一针强心剂。他们拿下了纽约市市长、新泽西州州长、弗吉尼亚州州长等多场关键选举，甚至在一些传统红州也取得了突破。
比如佐治亚州一个保守派选区破天荒翻蓝了，要知道去年总统大选特朗普在那里可是以 12 个百分点的优势拿下的。还有迈阿密市长选举，民主党 30 年来第一次赢了。就连田纳西这种深红州，共和党也只赢了 8%，要在以前，不赢个 20% 以上都不好意思说。地方选举的胜利不是偶然，说明选民对经济现状还是有不满的。如果这个趋势延续到明年，共和党真的有可能丢掉国会控制权。
前众议院议长佩洛西最近接受采访时信心满满，预测民主党会在 2026 年中期选举中夺回众议院。整个民主党现在弥漫着一股乐观情绪。
而共和党这边，则面临着非常多的挑战：
就算特朗普政府现在开始调整关税政策、推动降息，短时间内很难看到效果。而中期选举 11 月就要投票了，再倒推几个月考虑政策传导时间，留给特朗普的窗口期已经很紧张了。
特朗普最近还在不停呼吁参议院共和党人废除「冗长辩论」制度，参议员可以通过不停地发言来拖延或阻止某项法案进行表决。特朗普想通过这种方式一方面快速推进他的政策，另一方面也防止民主党的不配合导致 1 月 30 日再次「停摆」的可能性。但党内的反对意见也很多，很多共和党参议员担心开了先例之后，未来民主党是多数党时也会效仿特朗普的行为。
2026 年刚开年，现在判断中期选举结果还太早，变数太多。但有几点是可以确定的：为了保住国会席位，特朗普会动用一切手段，降息、财政刺激、关税红利，能上的都会上，短期内这对风险资产包括加密货币是利好。
所以从投资角度看，2026 年上半年可能还是有很多操作的机会和时间窗口。但到了下半年，随着中期选举临近，不确定性会急剧上升。如果民调显示民主党领先，市场可能会提前定价这个预期，加密行业也就可能面临调整压力。

Recently, Bitcoin prices have continued to fluctuate below historical highs, and the market's divergence regarding future trends is increasingly pronounced. Two well-known institutions have successively released bearish reports, but at the same time, Wall Street giants and top venture capitalists have provided a distinctly different analytical perspective. This article will outline the core arguments from all parties and analyze the deeper changes in the market.
1. Bearish Camp: Demand Exhaustion and Technical Breakdown
CryptoQuant, known for its on-chain data analysis, and Fundstrat, renowned for its strategy analysis, have both issued bearish warnings, with their core arguments pointing to a stagnation in demand growth and a breakdown of key support.

1. North Korean hackers stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency in 2025
According to Chainalysis data, North Korean hackers stole $2.02 billion worth of cryptocurrency in 2025, an increase of $681 million compared to 2024.

2. Federal Reserve's Harmack: Neutral interest rates may be higher than expected
Federal Reserve's Harmack stated that the positive inflation data for November may be distorted due to government shutdown data collection issues in early October and November, underestimating price growth. Although the Labor Department reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in November CPI, the adjusted estimate is closer to 2.9% or 3.0%. Harmack's concern about interest rate cuts is based on the belief that the neutral interest rate level is higher than commonly thought, and the economy has the momentum to maintain steady growth next year.

1. Overall Analysis and Judgment
ETH is currently in a range-bound consolidation pattern, fluctuating between 1384 and 3921.9, lacking a clear directional trend in the short term. From a technical perspective, the moving average system shows a tangled state, with the short-term price above the short-term moving average but below the long-term moving average, making the trend signal unclear. At the same time, a bearish engulfing pattern has appeared in the candlestick formations, indicating that the market may face certain downward pressure. However, due to the strong support at 1384, the price is likely to remain within the range and continue to fluctuate in the short term.
In terms of the external environment, market sentiment is neutral, macroeconomic pressures are limited, and there are no major event risks recently. On the news front, robust consumption and employment data, along with institutions increasing their positions in crypto assets, are positive factors, while concentrated liquidity risks and leveraged losses are negative factors, intertwining to have a limited overall impact on the market. Therefore, ETH is more likely to continue its range-bound consolidation in the short term, requiring close attention to the breakout situation of key support and resistance levels.

1. Trump's candidate claims Bitcoin checks government spending
Trump's Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Warsh stated that Bitcoin is a check on government spending.

2. Coinbase CEO: The U.S. government has Bitcoin reserves
Coinbase CEO stated that the U.S. government now holds strategic Bitcoin reserves and noted that this situation will persist.

3. Citigroup predicts the U.S. non-farm payroll report may release contradictory signals
The U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November. Citigroup economists point out that the latest employment report may release more contradictory signals, expecting a decrease of about 45,000 jobs in October and an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists indicate that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments. Citigroup predicts the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, with a Reuters survey expecting 4.4%, and the Federal Reserve predicting a year-end median unemployment rate of about 4.5%.

1. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, followed by a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%-3.75%
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday at 03:00, with the market expecting a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. There are differences of opinion within the FOMC, and some voting members may oppose further rate cuts. Due to the government shutdown, key data for October is missing, and changes in the SEP and dot plot are expected to be limited. The market is focused on whether a 'Reserve Management Purchase Plan' (RMP) will be introduced after ending the balance sheet runoff. Bank of America predicts that it may purchase about $45 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds monthly starting in January, with the total including MBS reinvestments reaching around $60 billion. If the RMP is announced, the focus of the meeting may shift to the balance sheet rather than the path of interest rates.

1. Trump has been named the most influential person of 2025, reshaping the crypto landscape.
U.S. President Trump has been rated as the most influential person of 2025, with the greatest impact on the political landscape of cryptocurrencies this year. The Trump administration has shifted from skepticism to open support, pushing digital assets to the center of U.S. economic strategy. This shift has brought regulatory momentum, institutional confidence, and discussions about the future role of cryptocurrencies in the United States.

2. BlackRock transferred 78.3 million dollars worth of Ethereum to Coinbase.
BlackRock transferred 24,791 Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately 78.3 million dollars.

🔥 Event Review
Last night around 22:04, the market began to show signs of volatility, with the price of ETH/USDT dropping to about $2998.40 on some platforms, attracting market attention. Shortly after, around 22:15, the price of ETH dropped sharply from about $3028 to $2942, a decline of up to 2.83% within 10 minutes, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations in high-leverage positions. Subsequently, during the period from 22:15 to 22:33, the price further fell from about $2951 to $2925, and panic sentiment spread rapidly. On-chain data shows that many accounts were forcibly liquidated due to ETH dropping to about $2900, including accounts that attempted to quickly “re-enter” after a loss of $738,000. Traders like “Ma Ji Da Ge” also faced significant fluctuations in their positions, being liquidated and then quickly restarting long positions, reflecting the current market behavior of both panic selling and attempts to rapidly recover positions after cutting losses amid severe volatility. The latest observed price has fallen to about $2942.5; although short-term market sentiment has slightly calmed, overall volatility remains intense.

1. Zhao Changpeng advises national leaders to buy Bitcoin as soon as possible
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that he is telling leaders that if they do not buy Bitcoin now, they may need to buy it at a price of 50 million dollars each in the future.

2. If Bitcoin reaches 100,000 dollars, it will liquidate 9.1 billion in shorts
If the price of Bitcoin rebounds to 100,000 dollars, it will result in about 9.1 billion dollars worth of short positions being liquidated.

3. A golden year or a historic year, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates
The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that unless there is a 'black swan' type of disruption, the U.S. will welcome a golden year in economic history. He said that if the growth rate in the first and second quarters of next year is only 3%, he would be disappointed and believes the growth rate could easily be raised by another percentage point. Hassett also expects Federal Reserve policymakers to lower rates at next week's meeting, stating that now is a good time for the Fed to cautiously cut rates.

1. BlackRock deposited 44,140 ETH into Coinbase, worth $135.36 million
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, BlackRock deposited 44,140 ETH into Coinbase Prime, worth $135.36 million.

2. Wall Street is attempting to prevent Trump from appointing Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
On December 4th, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino disclosed that Wall Street and the American business community are working to dissuade Trump from appointing Kevin Hassett as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Reasons for opposition include Hassett's political background (Director of the National Economic Council) and a lack of credibility, with concerns that this appointment could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to rising long-term interest rates and internal chaos. If Hassett lowers short-term interest rates through a split vote to address inflationary pressures, it may be seen as political interference, triggering inflation and raising mortgage and consumer rates, thereby affecting economic performance. Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

1. Zhao Changpeng predicts more historical highs will appear.
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that he predicts 'more historical highs will appear soon.'

2. The UK officially recognizes cryptocurrencies as legal property.
The UK has officially recognized Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as legal property, confirming their legal status.

3. Gold prices fell below $4200/oz, focusing on U.S. economic data.
On December 2, gold prices continued to fall, and silver retreated from the record highs set yesterday. Credit Suisse analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa stated that some traders chose to take profits after gold prices rebounded from $4000 to $4250. Data shows that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November. Investors are focused on the November ADP employment report and the September PCE index for clues about potential interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting President Trump's announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the leading candidate. De Casa expects gold prices to consolidate between $4000 and $4400 in the coming weeks and stated that a Fed rate cut could push gold prices higher.

The characterization of the 28th has shattered all the illusions about stablecoins in the industry over the past few years.

On the surface, it is a regulatory policy, but in reality, it is a statement about monetary power.

The United States has turned stablecoins into an extension of digital dollars with the (GENIUS Act). Domestically, this characterization has classified stablecoins as illegal.

Both sides are very clear about what they are doing.

01 | 'Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency.'

This is not the first time virtual currency has been mentioned, but it is the first time the authorities have explicitly equated stablecoins with Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In the past few years, many projects have bet on the assumption that 'stablecoins are not considered virtual currency.' They believe that as long as there are dollar reserves and no volatility, they can tell a story to regulators.

1. The People's Bank of China has defined stablecoins for the first time, emphasizing risks and combating illegal activities. Thirteen departments subsequently united to combat illegal activities related to virtual currencies and further emphasized the risks of stablecoins.
The People's Bank of China recently held a meeting to coordinate actions against the speculation in virtual currency trading, clarifying for the first time that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency. It pointed out that stablecoins cannot effectively meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers, and emphasized the continued crackdown on illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies. Industry insiders believe that this meeting will not affect the layout of stablecoins in Hong Kong, but speculation on stablecoins in mainland China will be severely cracked down, and the space for domestic entities to lay out stablecoins in Hong Kong will be more limited to practical application scenarios such as cross-border payments and supply chain finance.

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%.
On November 27, according to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 14.9%.

2. Eric Trump claims Bitcoin can transfer 500 million USD without fees.
Eric Trump stated that Bitcoin allows for transfers of 500 million USD on Sunday nights without transaction fees, which he believes intimidates large institutions.

3. Gold prices broke through 2800 USD/ounce, reaching a historic high as risk aversion sentiment rises.
In response to Tether purchasing more gold than several central banks in the last quarter, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino retweeted a post from Sam Callahan, Strategic and Research Director at Bitcoin Treasury Company OranjeBTC, on the X platform, clarifying the market's misunderstanding that Tether prefers gold over Bitcoin, stating, "Tether still loves Bitcoin." It is reported that Tether currently holds about 87,475 BTC and has used about 15% of its profits since 2023 to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The purchase of gold indicates that Tether has developed into a global corporate group, not just a stablecoin issuer.

1. Trump: I only care about whether the U.S. can be first in the crypto space.
U.S. President Trump stated that his only concern is whether the U.S. can rank first in the cryptocurrency space.

2. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, with disagreement on the Fed's rate cut in December.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, remaining at a relatively low level. However, data shows that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Federal Reserve officials have lowered interest rates in the last two policy meetings to support the slowing labor market, but there is disagreement on whether to cut rates again at the last meeting in December, as they seek to balance a weak labor market with high inflation.

1. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, setting a new high in 5 months.
The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC has increased to 90, reaching a new high in 5 months.

2. The probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp cut is 22.3%
CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%. By January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 56.9%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 20.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 22.3%.

3. The Linea mainnet has bridged over 1.22 million ETH, with interactive addresses reaching 420,000.