青梅煮币

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青梅煮币

普通的分析员，写有《普通人的加密货币交易手册》，适合新手阅读，可找我领取，推特与公众号都可搜青梅煮币。

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Release of 'A Handbook for Ordinary People on Cryptocurrency Trading' Version 2.1

(A Handbook for Ordinary People on Cryptocurrency Trading) Version 2.1 released, 120 pages in total, available for free download.

Content of the 2.1 version supplement:
Supplement to the weighted funding rate in the funding rate.
The relationship between volatility and the effectiveness of breakthroughs.
Three major challenges of investing in altcoins.

Supplement of some other text.Last updated on: 2025-11-11.Table of contents as shown.#BTC #ETH

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Market expectations are that Japan will raise interest rates in December or January, which is a bearish signal. (The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 18-19, 2025, and the market generally expects this meeting to decide on a rate hike.)

Historically, the Bank of Japan first raised interest rates on July 30-31, 2024, and at that time, Bitcoin fell for 8 consecutive days before stopping. #日本加息 #BTC

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MSCI will assess and decide by January 15, 2026, whether to remove companies whose "business model primarily involves purchasing cryptocurrencies" from its main equity benchmark indices (such as MSCI USA and MSCI World), such as Strategy (MicroStrategy).

MicroStrategy holds a total of 650,000 Bitcoins, which is approximately 3.1% of the total supply, with an average purchase cost of about $74,436.

#BTC

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The weekly MA60 may become the top of the BTC rebound: If BTC rebounds in a B wave with a bottom of 80600, then a reference form can be considered. After the weekly top divergence, the Bitcoin market broke below the weekly MA60 moving average. In 2021, the market rebounded to the MA60 and peaked. This round of rebound may also follow a similar pattern; for now, we can only observe the rebound and not expect a reversal. #BTC

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The double bottom of Sol has formed, and the theoretical target is around 168. #sol

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The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 10.8%.

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The SOL weekly chart shows a TD indicator bottom 9. The SOL daily chart here suggests a potential double bottom, with the neckline around 145.#solana

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Grayscale Report: Grayscale believes that Bitcoin may not enter a deep cyclical downturn, expecting its price to reach new highs next year, and questioning the applicability of the four-year cycle theory. #BTC

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If the Bitcoin market drops again, the Ahr999 index will enter the regular investment zone.
#BTC

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From the liquidation heat map, the support for Bitcoin is 83278, which is exactly the 0.786 retracement level. #BTC

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This is a potential bearish signal: Bitcoin MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company plans to consider selling Bitcoin when the stock price falls below mNAV (mNAV less than 1) and financing channels are exhausted. Currently, this mNAV value is 1.12.

They hold 649870 Bitcoin, and if they start selling, it would have a significant impact on market confidence.

mNAV = Company enterprise value / Bitcoin net asset value)

#BTC

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usdt.d can be understood as a pullback after breaking through the upper edge of the triangle, with the triangle evolving towards a parallel channel or wedge. If the pullback is complete, a further upward movement is possible, with the upper edge of the parallel channel being a potential target.

#USDT.D

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Before this box (0.1-0.198), it had been ranging. In the previous two weeks, there was a massive increase followed by a massive drop, failing to effectively break through the descending trend line and the upper edge of the box. The market has returned to the box, so it is highly likely that the market will retest the lower edge of the box near 0.1. #strk

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The losses in Bitcoin have surged to levels not seen since the collapse of FTX, with most of the losses caused by short-term holders. #BTC

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On September 5th of this year, it was believed that the probability of Bitcoin entering a bear market was increasing. Even if the market surged, it was advisable to reduce positions and exit. In retrospect, this was correct.

#BTC

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Cooking Green Plums: Three Positions Worth Participating in BTC

This round of Bitcoin's decline is very smooth, and it should be in the downward driving wave, which is the worst scenario mentioned in the article published on November 5 (Cooking Green Plums: Predicting Three Possibilities for Bitcoin).

Today, let's make a prediction about the future market. First, there are three hypothetical premises:

Premise 1: The downward trend is a pullback from the rise from 15476 to 126199.
Premise 2: The current pullback speed is very fast, so we assume it is a 5-wave structure, meaning the adjustment wave A is a 5-wave structure.
Premise 3: According to past bear market pullback depths, they have all decreased; the 2018 bear market pulled back 84%, the 2022 bear market pulled back 77%, and this bear market's pullback is assumed to be between 60% and 70%.

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The most valuable buying point for ETH is around $2160, and the probability of a rebound is very high for two reasons:

First, below $2160 is a historical accumulation zone, so the area around $2160 is very important support.
Second, $2160 is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

#ETH

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Bitfinex long positions have reached near previous highs. Historically, when Bitfinex long contract holdings reach relatively high levels, it indicates a relative low for Bitcoin. #BTC

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In terms of the decline, this round of Bitcoin has dropped more than 31% from its peak, and this has only happened twice in the past two years. #BTC

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The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in December has risen to 72.2%.
#BTC

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