九烨加密论

$ETH Price fluctuations may trigger large-scale liquidations.

Currently, those shorting ETH still occupy a relatively dominant position. If the price rises to 3168, it will face a short liquidation of 1.4 billion; if the price drops to 2830, the long positions will be liquidated for 800 million USD.

Overall, it is still in a bearish trend, with the moving average system in a bearish arrangement, which cannot be digested in the short term by just a few positive fundamental news. The view that ETH will adjust to the golden ratio 618 line to stop the decline and stabilize in a large cycle remains unchanged. Right now, it is undergoing wide fluctuations and a corrective trend.

Recently, the probability of hitting a new low and breaking a new high is relatively low. The market will fluctuate above 2600 points and below 3200 points, accumulating strength to continue the upward attack amidst the decline. In terms of trading strategy, the focus is on high selling and low buying, as the one-sided trend market comes to a pause.

In principle, the upward trend of $ZEC is not considered broken. This round of price stopped falling at the overlapping point of the golden ratio 618 line and the 120-day moving average. If it goes down further, it will break.

The bulls are not so easy either. Although the upward momentum has not been broken, the complete upward moving average system has been disrupted, making a short-term recovery of strong upward momentum unrealistic.

Upwards, focus on the two pressure zones of 440-470 and 520-573U according to the size of the pressure, especially the latter, where the competition will be fierce. This is also a key area for the bulls to regain initiative and whether it will shift from bullish to bearish.

Now looking for a rebound!

#隐私币

#eth走势分析

This drop of 44% is still quite deep, and the daily chart's moving average system has completely turned down, but this V-shaped reversal also expresses the market's strong rise. If we expect to reverse the situation in the short term, it shouldn’t be too likely.

The last time the moving average flattened downward, the price of $ETH had a period of sideways movement after breaking through the life line, and then there was a larger breakthrough. It's unknown if it will be the same this time, but ETH is likely to trade between 3050-3200 in the near future.

Earlier, the spot market was buying at the bottom all the way, and finally, a little light was seen.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

#美联储重启降息步伐

The last time the balance sheet reduction ended was in July 2019, when the Federal Reserve stopped further reductions of its balance sheet and shifted to maintaining a framework of 'ample reserves,' marking the end of quantitative tightening (QT).

Subsequently, at the end of July 2019, on September 18, and on October 30, the interest rates were each lowered by 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 1.75%. After that, during the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, the Federal Reserve further urgently cut rates to near-zero levels (March 2020). This truly marked the beginning of a comprehensive super bull market!!

It is important to note that stopping the balance sheet reduction, even with minor rate cuts, will not have a significant impact on prices. This includes the fact that after the last balance sheet reduction and rate cuts, prices still hit new lows. Therefore, my view on this round of market activity remains a rebound after an excessive decline.

#新冠 #BTC走势分析

🧵$ETH Fusaka upgrade was officially activated on December 3rd. This time, it is essentially a large-scale expansion + a technical upgrade to reduce L2 costs, focusing on creating a wider and cheaper 'data highway' for Rollups (such as #Arbitrum, #Optimism, #Base). Its impacts are as follows:

1/ Core changes in Fusaka: Significantly increased blob data capacity (up to 8 times expansion potential), strengthened PeerDAS mechanism, enabling Rollups to more efficiently submit transaction data to the mainnet. It is not about directly stacking L1 TPS, but rather locking in the 'Rollup Centric' path, optimizing ETH value capture (integrating 10+ EIPs).

2/ Ecological impact: L2 costs decrease (data writing fees drop), throughput increases, supporting high-frequency applications like gaming/social/DEX. Optimization of user experience for DeFi/NFT, alleviating congestion on the mainnet during peak periods. New projects are more inclined to deploy on L2, initiating the 'second phase of expansion'—institutions estimate that the L2 TPS limit could double.

3/ Key metrics to watch: L2 transaction volume/active addresses/Gas cost changes; total Ethereum network fees (especially blob fees); trends in TVL inflow and new project deployments, which can indicate whether it translates into real growth.

4/ Price impact: Coincidentally encountering the concentrated release of macro favorable news boosted ETH prices during the second bottom, which is now situated above the mid-band of the daily Bollinger Bands, although the BB direction is still downward, suggesting a high probability of oscillation and consolidation in the 3200-3100 range in the short term.

Fusaka lays the foundation for Ethereum, providing medium to long-term ecological benefits, with ETH prices potentially gaining in the long run—key to watch is whether the upcoming L2 ecology can fully utilize the 'highway'.

#Ethereum #Fusaka

$BTC is brewing a large head and shoulders pattern?!
One moment the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, the next a dove is nominated by Trump as the successor to the Federal Reserve chair, then CZ shouts that it will soon break new highs, and then Bassett issues 2000 yuan to families with an income below 100,000 to release liquidity.
This wave of macro policies and actions by big players has caused Bitcoin to surge from a second bottom of 84K to a sudden rise of 10,000 points to 94K, but it can only be seen as a rebound after an overshoot, not a trend reversal.
It seems to be brewing a bigger risk!!

$pippin rose 100 times after "1011"! A hundred times coin born in a bear market!

It steadily reached the upper track of the channel at $0.24, and since breaking away from the bottom area, it has reliably risen through two channels. Next, there will be fluctuations and corrections, and attention can be paid to the stabilization situation at $0.1677 before deciding whether to enter again.

So, this month is a rebound month, just like in the past, but of course we cannot shout 'the bull is back' at the moment; this requires more time to verify. The market will cooperate with the relevant macroeconomic positives to start a rebound trend. Do not short!!

$ASTER The project party seems to want to stick to 0.9U.

The project party has repurchased in advance, and the price has once again returned to the cost price of @CZ . There was a small amount yesterday, and if long-term investors are interested, they can consider it.

Execution wallet address:
0x573ca9FF6b7f164dfF513077850d5CD796006fF4

$BTC The direction of the market is determined by liquidity!

In September 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped QT, ending this process that began with the balance sheet reduction in October 2017, just coinciding with the adjustment phase after the BTC mini bull. Afterwards, it encountered the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, ending the bear market and starting the bull market; without COVID-19, prices might not have broken below the Bollinger middle band.

The same scenario is happening again:
In December 2025, stopping QT is also a way to ease market liquidity, officially ending this QT that began in the bear market and experiencing a bear bottom of 15500.

This round of the bull market feels very awkward, lacking a profit-making effect. So, will this so-called bull market starting in 2023 just be a mini bull?

Currently, since BTC price broke through the Bollinger middle band in October 2023, it fell back to the middle band for the first time in November 2025, not dropping below it at once; I can't say that this is the bottom now, but the dollar-cost averaging strategy is definitely a buying point now.

$pippin I have tested it for everyone, and the short position was stopped out!

For such a volatile coin, don't go against it just yet. Yesterday's 4-hour chart looked like a top, but who would have thought it pulled back in the early hours of the morning, and the daily chart closed so nicely.

The bullish trend has not ended; although it has risen 100 times from the lowest point of 1011 to now, and from 0.02 it has risen 10 times, if we short it again, we need to wait for clearer signals, just like $ZEC , which oscillated and pulled back at the top, ultimately coming down anyway.

In the next two days, we need to test 0.246.

Brothers, the opportunity has come, let's charge together! 🚀
Bitfinex $BTC BTC dropped to 90K, showing a positive premium against Coinbase (a stronghold for institutional funds), and the whales entered early to buy the dip—I've mentioned this repeatedly in the weekly live broadcasts, especially when it was 80K, they were as greedy as at 74K! This is a short-term bottom signal, and the buying at the bottom has yielded over 10% returns now!

Even better news: yesterday #Coinbase BTC was also at a positive premium! Since 1011, institutions have been cautious, desperately fleeing during the crash (like BlackRock ETF outflows), but now they have finally entered the market! With whales ahead and institutions behind, a price drop is still a great buying opportunity!

Overall, BTC is in a volatile upward trend, with a solid bottom at 85K, short-term pressures at 92K-93K, and mid-term targeting 98-103K.

#BTC走势分析 #CryptoMarket

#加密市场反弹

Bottom confirmation! The callback is an opportunity?!

ETF purchasing power returns: Holding data has turned positive, real money is still flowing in.
The exchange retains BTC (2.1 million) and ETH (11.79 million) and continues to experience net outflows, with the strategic reserve still continuously affecting the supply-demand relationship.

Short-term operational thinking:
BTC fluctuation range: Support at 88,767, resistance at 91,651.

Note: Tomorrow's options expiration may bring the last "washout," but there's no need to panic!
80,000 and 2,600 have become stage iron bottoms! Any recent pullback is an opportunity to get on board.

Lao Hei @Arthur Hayes shouted after $ZEC , and then began to shout $MON . He said the price will rise to 10U. Facing such a giant with an issuance of 100 billion, can it really return to its historical high?

Yesterday, a whale bought 36 million pieces at 0.036, and the price once reached 0.04747 USD. The bottom has seen a massive amount of activity, and in the short term, let's first look at 0.086. The opening day's high was 0.59 dollars.

If the price really reaches 10U, do you know how much its market value will be? The current liquidity market value is 500 million dollars. If the price rises to 10 dollars, it would mean an increase of 200 times on that basis, and the circulating market value will reach 100 billion, while FDV reaches 500 billion. This is almost completely impossible.

We can have ideas, but we cannot have illusions! However, the probability of following the market's strong attack in the near term is very large, and it is still on the rise.

Maji finally won once, tears of joy!!

The stubborn Maji, after a quiet weekend, started pouring money into long positions again. This time ETH is profitable, HYPE is also making money, and I have a vague feeling he is going to make a big profit this time!!

The leader of cryptocurrency memes $DOGE big news is coming.

Grayscale has launched the first DOGE spot ETF, which is now listed, allowing the public to indirectly purchase DOGE through the ETF.

The price trend of DOGE in recent years seems to follow a certain pattern, generally spiking to historical highs within about 4 weeks, followed by a drop back to the initial explosion point over 1-2 years, and then a sideways consolidation period lasting from half a year to a year.

The current price of 0.14U is 371 days past the last high of 0.48, and it just happens to be near the initial explosion point from 371 days ago. Following this inertia, it should begin consolidating and gathering momentum again, though it is uncertain when it will rise again; the launch of the ETF has undoubtedly opened the door to wealth.

$BTC The recent decline in Bitcoin is likely to find a low point around 80K. As we approach the end of November, it is a frequent options expiration date, with the largest one on November 28, and the maximum pain point at 102K.

Generally, prices tend to gravitate towards the maximum pain point to maximize the interests of the main players. It is uncertain whether it can rebound to such a high level, as this position also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Another reference rebound target is the 382 line at 97386 dollars.

The rebound may take a bit longer; during the decline, it is advisable to buy gradually, and when it goes up, gradually take profits, avoiding excessive greed.

The $ETH ETF data on the 21st finally ended the situation of net outflows, especially with the launch of Grayscale's ETH staking ETF $ETH $ETHE, which is continuously eating into BlackRock's market share.

BlackRock's $ETHA has seen outflows of 223,000 ETH in the past 7 days, and even with the overall net inflow status on the 21st, it still saw outflows of 19,000 ETH. The grayscale Ethereum ETF staking feature will be a trend in the future.

Users can not only enjoy the dividends brought by the rise of ETH but can also enjoy an annual POS yield of 3%-5% through staking. It's no wonder BlackRock is now eager to apply.

Regardless, this has very significant implications for the future price and ecology of ETH. The technical aspect of ETH has already bottomed out, and I've been reminding to buy at the bottom these past two days, which can reach 3400U.

$BTC has reached the bottom, $ETH has also arrived!

Every time there is a significant drop, it is always a minority buying while the majority sell mercilessly. Institutions are always accumulating, while retail investors are always selling.

#coinbase pro's recent data for the past 7 and 30 days shows that institutions have withdrawn 26051 and 70810 BTC respectively, and the data for Ethereum is similarly 206200 and 670000.

Meanwhile, other exchanges that primarily serve retail investors, especially #binanace , have seen a surge in daily inflows of data into the exchanges, which is a result of retail selling behavior.

The market's bottom has been reached; if prices continue to fall, keep buying!