Muhammad Qamar 78

Bitcoin’s First Full-Year Split From Stocks in Over a Decade
Bitcoin has broken from its long-standing correlation with equities, marking its first full-year divergence from stocks in over a decade.
The shift highlights a growing disconnect between crypto and traditional markets, raising questions about Bitcoin’s role in the current cycle.
A Historic Market Decoupling
Bitcoin and stocks have historically moved in tandem. However, that relationship appears to have fractured.
According to Bloomberg data, the S&P 500 has climbed more than 16% this year while Bitcoin is down 3%, marking the first such split since 2014.
Such a clean break is unusual even by crypto standards, prompting renewed scrutiny of Bitcoin’s role within global markets. The divergence challenges expectations that regulatory optimism and institutional participation would automatically translate into sustained performance.
It is especially striking given the broader environment, where artificial intelligence stocks are soaring, capital spending is accelerating, and investors are pouring back into equities. At the same time, traditional defensive assets are attracting attention, suggesting investors are reallocating rather than broadly embracing risk.
Crypto-specific pressures, including forced liquidations and a sharp decline in retail participation, have materially exacerbated Bitcoin’s underperformance. Billions of unwound positions have amplified downside moves, turning what began as a correction into an industry retreat.
As these signals accumulate, market sentiment has weakened, sparking debate over whether this represents a routine correction or a more significant structural change.
Normal Pullback Or Something More?
Bitcoin has long behaved as a momentum-driven asset, but the breakdown in sustained upside suggests that leadership within risk markets has shifted elsewhere.
Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, prominent endorsements have grown quieter, and key technical indicators are flashing renewed weakness.
Price action reflects that cooling confidence. Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since its October peak near $126,000 and is now hovering closer to $90,000, reinforcing the sense that this divergence is being driven by fading conviction rather than short-term volatility alone.
Despite the current divergence, longer time horizons complicate the narrative. 
On a multi-year basis, Bitcoin continues to outperform equities, suggesting the recent split may reflect earlier excess gains unwinding rather than a decisive break in trend. 
From that perspective, underperformance could still align with a normal pullback within a broader bull-market cycle, despite calendar-year contrasts.

From Scarcity to Surge: XRP’s Supply Shock Explained
XRP: Supply Shock on the Horizon?
XRP could soon disappear from exchanges overnight — and the signs are already here. We’re entering a bull run with massive liquidity preparing to flow into the market. Most investors won’t react the right way, but those who are prepared may see life-changing gains.
We could be looking at a 10x increase in XRP’s price in a very short time. The math supports it. But before diving into numbers, let’s examine a crucial factor: investment spending in technology and software. This metric is currently driving U.S. GDP growth, and it mirrors the early stages of the 1999 dot-com bubble. Back then, spending surged, peaked, and collapsed — dragging the economy into negative growth. Today, we’re in a similar setup.
Why this matters
If you misread the signals — selling too early or panic-buying too late — you risk heavy losses. During the dot-com crash, 80% of investors lost money. In crypto’s last bull cycle, about 95% of investors ended up in the red. The same mistake could repeat with XRP.
The supply shock
Back in November, XRP experienced a massive supply shock. Daily trading volume hit $51B, pushing the price from $0.47 to $3.45 almost overnight. Exchanges ran out of XRP, and buyers pushed the price higher.
Now, we may be heading toward an even bigger shock:
Mild shock ($10–15B daily volume) → +10–20% price.
Significant shock ($15–25B) → +20–50% price.
Extreme shock ($25–50B+) → potential 8–10x move.
With rate cuts, liquidity injections, and regulatory clarity, the stage is being set again.
Why this time is different
This upcoming cycle could be stronger because:
Rate cuts are adding liquidity.
Tech companies are investing record capital, fueling crypto correlations.
Institutional adoption is accelerating — ETFs, treasuries, RWAs, and major partnerships.
These factors didn’t exist during the last supply shock. Now, with ETFs, BlackRock, Securitize, and VanEck all entering the space, the momentum is far stronger.
The potential
Based on past examples, a new shock could easily push XRP above $10 per coin. With ISO integration and banking adoption in progress, systemic use of XRP is closer than ever. I put the probability of this scenario at 75–85%.
Even a 5–10x move within 4–5 months is realistic — something that most traditional assets simply can’t offer at their trillion-dollar valuations.
Final thoughts
XRP has already proven its explosive potential in 2017 and again in recent years. With volume, adoption, and liquidity lining up, another parabolic move looks inevitable. The question is: will you be prepared when the supply shock hits?