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Ethereum Treasury Companies: Early positive signals, but structural momentum is weakening

Ethereum treasury companies initially started strong, generating expectations that ETH is gradually being accepted as a strategic reserve asset on corporate balance sheets.
This is a significant step, as treasury buying is not just speculative capital, but long-term demand capable of structurally shifting the market.

However, the current picture is less positive.

• BitMine is the only name buying ETH at a large and continuous scale
• The accumulation pace of BitMine has now slowed down
• No new companies are joining the ETH treasury model

This causes the Ethereum treasury narrative to lose momentum, rather than evolving into a systemic trend.

Structural implication: the issue is not technology

Ethereum remains the central infrastructure for DeFi, stablecoins, L2s, and on-chain finance. But
⚠️
price is not driven by technology, but by supply and demand.

Treasury buying plays a particularly important role because:
→ Removes ETH from circulation for extended periods
→ Reduces selling pressure during cycles
→ Lays the foundation for sustainable price rallies

When this demand momentum does not accelerate, ETH is forced to revert to relying on:
• Short-term speculative flows
• Cyclical narratives
• Macroeconomic volatility and market sentiment

These are sources of demand that are difficult to sustain for long-term growth.

Long-term impact: $ETH
faces the risk of losing its leading role$ZEC $SOL

Spot BTC cash flow: Selling pressure weakening, market absorbing supply

Observing spot inflow/outflow of BTC trading shows a key signal often overlooked by investors who only focus on short-term price movements.

Although Bitcoin experienced a minor correction earlier, selling pressure did not increase—it has actually been gradually decreasing over time.

• Outflow of capital from the spot market is narrowing
• Price remains stable, with no breakdown candles appearing
• No signs of panic selling or widespread liquidation

👉
This is a classic absorption pattern, where remaining selling pressure is orderly absorbed by the market instead of being forced out through panic selling.

Structural implication: price does not drop despite ongoing selling

In genuine distribution phases, we typically see:
• Sharp increase in outflow
• Rapid and decisive price decline
• Sudden withdrawal of liquidity

But the current context is entirely different.

⚠️
The gradual reduction in capital outflow while price holds steady indicates:
→ Supply for sale is running out
→ Active buying pressure is present underneath
→ Buyers are ready to absorb supply rather than push prices higher

This behavior commonly appears before the market decides on its next direction, not as a signal of trend exhaustion.

$ZEC $SOL $ETH

🚨
DANGER SIGNAL FOR BITCOIN

New whale group is breaking even around the ~$99,000 mark.

A large number of recently formed whale addresses have accumulated $BTC in the high price range and are now in a losing position. In this context, selling pressure at the break-even point is a very common psychological reaction to reduce risk.

This leads to:
• The ~$99K zone becoming a very strong supply resistance
• Selling pressure likely to increase as price approaches this area
• Any rejection here will be distributional in nature, not merely technical correction

This signal does not negate Bitcoin's long-term trend, but indicates that short-to-medium-term momentum will face significant obstacles if the hanging supply above is not fully absorbed.
$BTC $ETH

Bitcoin's "Weekend Pump" pattern since the October cycle peak

Since the October cycle peak, Bitcoin has formed a highly noticeable repeating behavior pattern on the weekend time frame.

📊
Statistics show:
• Bitcoin has risen in 13 out of the last 15 weekends since the cycle peak
• Most rallies have marked local highs on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday
• Prices are often pushed up amid thin weekend liquidity

This suggests it's not random, but a structured pattern related to liquidity and market behavior.

Structural implication: weak liquidity is the 'stage' for price games

Weekends are always characterized by:
• Low volume
• Thin order books
• Susceptibility to manipulation by large capital flows

In this context, price increases don't necessarily reflect genuine demand, but often:
→ Liquidity sweeps
→ Late FOMO triggering
→ Setup for distribution when liquidity returns at the start of the week
$BTC $ZEC $ETH

Publicly listed companies now hold over 923,000 BTC: A shift in supply structure

Currently, public companies hold more than 923,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $86 billion at market prices. This figure is not just statistical—it reflects a significant structural shift in how Bitcoin is held.

The key points are:
• BTC is being recorded on corporate balance sheets
• Holding periods tend to be long-term, not short-term speculation
• This supply is nearly withdrawn from circulation

Structural implication: supply becoming increasingly 'hard'

Unlike retail investors or traders, companies:
→ Do not react to short-term price fluctuations
→ Do not sell due to market noise
→ Tend to accumulate strategically over the long term

This results in:
• A shrinking circulating supply of BTC over time
• Market corrections becoming shallower over time
• Each new wave of demand must compete with an ever-decreasing supply

Long-term impact: higher price foundation, with volatility trending toward accumulation

The fact that nearly 1 million BTC is held by public companies indicates Bitcoin is:
• Moving away from being purely a speculative asset
• Getting closer to becoming a strategic reserve asset

This doesn't guarantee prices will only rise, but it changes how the market adjusts: less panic, more accumulation, and a clearer long-term trend.$ETH $BTC $SOL

Bitcoin drops sharply: Macro pressures and market structure, not a 'conspiracy'

The red candles on the BTC 12H timeframe in recent sessions have indeed drawn attention: the price fell sharply from around $98,000 to approximately $84,000 in a short period. However, upon analyzing the data and market context, this does not appear to be a case of manipulation or a deliberate conspiracy, but rather the combined result of macroeconomic pressures, risk-off sentiment, and a vulnerable market structure.

Natural selling combined with stop-loss hunting

The recent downturn resulted from a combination of natural selling and stop-loss hunting as prices broke through key support levels. Long, sharp candlesticks reflect the activation of stop-loss orders in a low-liquidity environment, but there is no sign of one-sided price manipulation or systematic market distortion.

More importantly, overall trading volume remains low, indicating a loss of confidence rather than a panic sell-off.

$ETH $SOL

⚠️
BTC TRADERS ARE TRAPPED ON BOTH SIDES

Market data shows a typical liquidity structure for position hunting:

• Long positions are strongly accumulating around the $89,000 level
• Short positions are densely placed around the $92,000 level

This creates a dangerous equilibrium zone, where both sides are betting early on the next price direction.

Meaning of the structure

When both long and short positions are clearly stacked:
→ The market has momentum to sweep liquidity
→ Price tends to move against the side with the most exposure first
→ Strong volatility often occurs without a major catalyst

In a thin liquidity environment and with unclear confidence, the market is highly likely to force one side out before a real trend forms.

Behavioral strategy

This is not the ideal time to predict direction, but rather a phase to:
• Observe price reactions at the two key zones
• Wait for confirmation of structure (sweep + MSB)
• Avoid entering trades early in the "kill zone"

Conclusion

The question is not whether Bitcoin will go up or down right now, but rather:

❓
Which side will be liquidated first — the longs at $89K or the shorts at $92K?
$BTC $ETH $SOL

The pullback rhythm is continuing as previously anticipated, indicating the market is still operating within a tight technical structure.
Bullish forces have not retreated, but they are not yet strong enough to fully take control.

🔹
Altcoins have had a short-term 'breathing' phase, with notable rebound strength.
Within just a few days to a few weeks, the total market cap of altcoins has increased by approximately 30 billion USD – a figure showing speculative capital remains ready to return when favorable conditions arise.
However, like the nature of this market, prices do not move in straight lines: alternating up and down waves remain characteristic of the current phase.

🔹
In the short term, I still expect the market to push prices higher once more,
extending the relief rally to higher levels.
This aligns with the overall sentiment: selling pressure has temporarily weakened, while buyers are taking advantage of relative stability to test resistance levels above.

🔹
But the real test has not yet begun.
Technically, the market is still moving within a structure dominated by sellers.
Despite short-term strength, the longer-term trend remains marked by prolonged weakness – a reality that cannot be denied by just a few rebound waves.

To change the situation, the market needs:
• Structural resistance levels to be converted into support
• Sustained capital inflow, not just explosive moves during relief rallies
• Confirmation that buying pressure is strong enough to reverse the trend, rather than just short-term reactions
$ETH $BTC $ZEC

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, where a few key price levels will determine the next direction of the entire market.
As volatility is narrowing, correctly reading structural price zones has become essential.

🔹
First support zone: ~$89,200
This level has repeatedly acted as short-term support, absorbing selling pressure and maintaining the uptrend structure without breakdown.
If this level is lost, the market is likely to see another round of selling pressure heading toward the next support zone at ~$87,500.

🔹
Critical structural support: ~$87,500
This is not just a technical level, but the boundary of the daily structure.
A daily close below $87,500 will confirm the formation of a lower low, opening the door for deeper correction and significant pressure on the entire altcoin group.

🔹
On the upside – decisive resistance zone: $94,000 – $95,000
Bitcoin needs to clearly reclaim this zone to confirm that the recent correction was temporary.
A daily close above $95,000 will:
• Reject the bearish scenario
• Trigger a short squeeze
• Open the path for prices to move toward the $102,000 – $103,000 range, where dense liquidity is waiting to be tested

🔹
Medium-term significance
The market currently lacks structural confirmation, not liquidity.
These price levels will decide whether Bitcoin continues to maintain the uptrend narrative or enters a prolonged consolidation phase.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC

The Ethereum validator exit queue has officially dropped to 0 – a significant signal that selling pressure from staking is being alleviated.

During periods of stress, the validator exit queue often reflects defensive sentiment: validator operators queue up to withdraw ETH from staking to prepare liquidity, thereby creating hidden selling pressure on the spot market.
This return to zero indicates that the wave of withdrawals has ended, or at least there is currently no demand for mass position exits.

🔹
From an on-chain structural perspective, this carries several implications:
• The supply of ETH available for sale from staking has decreased significantly
• Validator sentiment has shifted from defensive to neutral or waiting
• Short-term structural selling pressure has been removed

🔹
Long-term impacts are even more noteworthy:
• As ETH is no longer being rapidly withdrawn from staking, the proportion of locked ETH tends to stabilize or increase again
• This supports the narrative of ETH as a yield-bearing asset,
not just a transactional instrument
• In the context of Ethereum becoming increasingly tied to RWA, DeFi, and on-chain financial infrastructure, staking stability plays a foundational role in the entire ecosystem

🔹
It should be noted that reduced selling pressure does not mean prices will rise immediately.
The market still needs confirmation from:
• New capital inflows
• Price structure on higher timeframes
• And market reactions to key resistance levels $ETH $BTC $ZEC

A structural turning point has officially taken place: digital collateral assets have entered the core financial system of the United States.

For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds have been regarded as the world's
"risk-free asset"—the foundation for global liquidity, derivative transactions, and the traditional financial system.
Today, that foundation is no longer confined to off-chain systems. It has been digitized and is now operating directly on the blockchain.

🔹
BlackRock's BUIDL fund is the clearest evidence of this shift.
The use of BUIDL as off-exchange collateral on major platforms, supporting billions of dollars in institutional transactions, demonstrates:
• Blockchain is no longer just a testing tool
• It has become the liquidity infrastructure for the global capital markets

🔹
The structural significance of this event goes far beyond a new financial product:
• Global bond markets are being tokenized, moving away from slow, fragmented, and outdated settlement systems
• Traditional assets can now be collateralized, re-collateralized, and circulated in real time
• Counterparty risk is reduced, capital efficiency increases, and integration between TradFi and DeFi becomes seamless

🔹The long-term impact is a complete reconfiguration of the financial architecture:
• Institutional capital is not "pouring into crypto for speculation"
• Instead, it is building and controlling the infrastructure through which assets flow
• Blockchain becomes the default settlement layer for global assets—from bonds and stocks to derivatives

$ETH $BTC

In the context of short-term market fluctuations emerging in the current market environment, the most important thing for investors to remind themselves is: the overall market trend remains bullish – not only for Bitcoin but also for Altcoins.

🔹
From a structural perspective, the market continues to maintain the core characteristics of a strong uptrend:
• Continuous corrective phases form higher lows
• Capital flows are orderly, shifting from Bitcoin to the Altcoin group
• Selling pressure mainly comes from short-term profit-taking, not large-scale distribution

Current downturns should be viewed as technical pullbacks within an uptrend,
rather than reversal signals. In an uptrending market, corrections are
necessary to reaccumulate and build a more sustainable price foundation for the next rally.

🔹
For Altcoins, maintaining a positive overall trend has significant long-term implications:
• Altcoins typically only break out significantly when the market confirms a stable uptrend
• Bitcoin's corrective phases create opportunities for capital to seek higher returns in new ecosystems and narratives
• Projects with solid fundamentals become more clearly filtered out during periods of volatility

🔹
The long-term impact of maintaining an uptrend lies not in a few candlesticks, but in structural confidence:
• As long as the market structure remains intact, the preferred strategy remains trend-following holding
• Patience during an uptrend often yields greater advantages than emotional reactions to short-term fluctuations$BTC $ETH
$ZEC

A whale has just opened a long position worth $ETH , valued at over 62 million USD – an action not to be ignored amid the market's sensitive phase.

The noteworthy aspect lies not only in the size of the position but also in the trading history of this whale. Within just two months, they have recorded nearly 22.37 million USD in profits, indicating this is likely strategic capital rather than emotional trading.

🔹
From a market structure perspective, this action carries multiple implications:
• Short-term corrections are being viewed by large capital as accumulation opportunities, not reversal signals
• Confidence in Ethereum's medium- to long-term trend remains intact
• Institutional buyers are willing to accept volatility to maintain their positions

🔹
However, it's essential to analyze capital flows with clarity.
A whale entering a long position does not necessarily mean the market will rise immediately. In many cases:
• Large positions may be used to anchor prices, creating conditions for liquidity structures to form
• Short-term volatility may still occur to liquidate leverage before the trend becomes clearer

🔹
The long-term impact of such transactions lies in the message they send:
Ethereum remains a strategic asset in the eyes of large capital, especially as the RWA ecosystem, staking, and on-chain financial infrastructure become increasingly intertwined with TradFi.$ZEC $PIPPIN

Ethereum has just completed a liquidity sweep and quickly retraced, further reinforcing the short-term correction scenario.

Specifically, $ETH reached the daily high around the ~$3,150 zone, while sweeping all liquidity above the previous high zone of ~$3,135.
This is a typical price behavior in a market lacking sustained bullish momentum: prices are pushed up to trigger stop-losses from sellers and FOMO from late buyers, then quickly reverse.

🔹
From a structural perspective, my outlook remains bearish, consistent with my weekly assessment:
• The current uptrend lacks clear structural expansion
• Most upward breaks are primarily liquidity grabs, not genuine breakouts
• Price is heading toward a key weak level: the monthly open around ~$2,970

A weak monthly open is often a level where the market tends to "revisit" for rebalancing, especially during periods when short-term capital dominates.

🔹
Intraday strategy
There may still be valid short opportunities, even though the best entry window occurred in the morning session. However, the following scenarios remain worth monitoring:
• A liquidity sweep above the ~$3,124 zone
• Or continued upward sweep above the daily high of ~$3,150

After a sweep occurs, I will wait for a market structure break on the 15M timeframe or even the 5M to confirm a genuine return of selling pressure, then look for high-probability short entry points.

$ETH
$SOL

The market is entering a sensitive phase as Bitcoin reverses and corrects.
This is not merely a random pullback, but a crucial test of the medium-term trend structure.

🔹The 21-Day Moving Average (MA21) currently acts as a vital boundary
for bulls.
Holding onto MA21 would indicate that buying pressure still controls the market,
confirming that this correction is merely technical—a necessary
"cooling-off" process after a period of rapid price surge.

Conversely, if MA21 is lost with significant volume, it could trigger:
• Cascade selling due to liquidation of highly leveraged long positions
• A shift in sentiment from "buy the dip" to "risk-off"
• Increased downward pressure toward lower structural support levels

🔹Timing factors are also particularly important.
The upcoming US Open session will be a major catalyst, as institutional money begins to enter more aggressively. History shows that many decisive Bitcoin movements often emerge during or immediately after the US session,
especially when the market is in a state of uncertainty like the current one.

🔹In the long term, whether Bitcoin can maintain MA21 will directly affect:
• The structure of higher lows within the uptrend
• Confidence of large capital flows in continuing to hold positions
• The ability to sustain the bullish narrative in the coming weeks

$BTC $ETH $SOL

$BTC – the area of $89.5k is hiding something VERY IMPORTANT, pay close attention 👀

1️⃣ Right below the $90k mark, aggressive sellers appear very thick.
But the issue is: the entire amount of that distribution has been completely absorbed by buyers 💥
The closing price of the candle above the absorbing candle means that shorts are trapped right there.

2️⃣ When shorts are trapped like this, normally the price will not return to that area for a while.
The longer it goes sideways or up, the greater the pain for the shorts.

3️⃣ If the buyers are aggressive enough, they can completely trigger the liquidation of this batch of shorts to fuel the next pump 🚀

But the mandatory condition is: the price must be pushed and closed above last week's high at $91.7k

📌 CLEAR CONCLUSION:
➡️ Closing above $91.7k = confirmation signal for the continuation trend of Bitcoin
➡️ That is the green light for the Longs ✅

⏳ Currently, the market is right at the “detonation switch” —
just waiting to see if the buyers have enough strength to press the button or not

$ZEC $ZKP $RIVER

🚨 HOT NEWS: ZCASH DEVELOPMENT TEAM RESIGNS EN Masse, NEW COMPANY POSSIBLE

The entire Zcash development team at Electric Coin Company collectively submitted their resignations on January 7th, following intense disagreements with the board of directors. The group is now considering establishing a new company to continue pursuing Zcash's original vision in a more independent manner.

This unexpected move has thrown Zcash's development roadmap into uncertainty, raising major questions about the project's future direction ⚠️

The market dislikes instability — and internal drama like this always acts as a negative catalyst in the short term.

$ZEC $ZKP $RIVER

$BTC has filled the first CME gap ✔️

But the story doesn't end there...

There's still another CME gap around the $88,200 level waiting below 👀

It's entirely possible that BTC will dip further, sweep this gap to absorb the final liquidity, before surging upward for the next leg up 📈

⏳ Be patient — the market often hurts the majority before rewarding those who wait for the right moment

$ZEC $ZKP $RIVER