As price continues pushing lower, more and more people are starting to target significantly lower prices.
The bull run has already started, and I still expect price to be trading near 160K in 2028.
Any HTF dip is an opportunity to buy. DCA into weakness and stop trying to catch the exact bottom. That approach rarely works and is usually how people end up getting front-run or missing the move entirely.
The goal isn't to catch the bottom perfectly. It's to position yourself for the next major move, and I believe that move will be to the upside.
$BTC Price has been following the fib levels pretty often,
If we hold the bearish trend here then a retest and rejection into the 79k (0.5) is very possible around Sunday evening.
We just formed a new monthly candle as well and looking at where we are currently structure wise + considering the mFVG below,
It's high likely we dump and tap into the mFVG following week - marking the bottom with a quick sweep of 72-73k,
And then start the next leg up towards the 88-90k zone,
Also the upside liquidity is surely going to get hunted at some point which is why, I have been slowly building a swing long with 80% of total size filled atm.
(Even if price pumps from here, which is also a possibility, I will still catch the entire move with a decent size).
Overall, things are going pretty well for us, if we break below from here,
My final limit will get filled and also I will try some separate longs on 10x leverage.
$BTC Historically, price has traded significantly higher 220+ days after the U.S. midterm elections.
Across the previous cycles, price consistently moved higher over this period, suggesting that the next few weeks could offer an opportunity to establish a higher low before the next major leg up.
I expect this pattern to repeat.
A higher low over the coming weeks, followed by a move above 100K within the next 200 days.
Looking at the past four monthly opens, we can see that they all played out in a very similar way.
First, price trended lower into the monthly close, which was then followed by an inverse move right after the start of the new month.
Those reversals produced an average move of roughly 7% to the upside within the first few days after mO.
This time around seems to be no different.
We are once again seeing a slow bleed ahead of the monthly close, and if this pattern continues to play out, we could see a move back into the $80k region over the course of next week.
Today is the monthly close, so here's what I'm looking at
On the Monthly Chart, We saw a Bullish CHoCH last month when we closed above the 82.8k high back in September.
That close flipped the Monthly Structure from Bearish to Bullish. And following these major trend changes, We see a pullback before continuation.
Now, We've seen the current month retracing back lower, Giving us that necessary Bullish Pullback before the next leg towards the upside.
Right now, We have a Bullish FVG sitting between the 74.9k & 66.9k region. This is the ideal zone for price to tap into before continuing higher.
Historically, During the Bear Market, We've seen that before every major pump, Price first took out untapped FVGs before continuing its trend towards new lows.
I believe we could see something similar here, Except this time, We should trend towards the upside after the pullback as the Monthly Structure has already flipped Bullish.
So a sweep into this FVG is something I'm keeping an eye on at the start of next month before Longing my Longs.
$BTC We mostly bottomed shortly after the Mid-Terms.
This time, however, we're seeing a different setup. BTC has already bottomed before the Mid-Terms and has been dumping into the event for the last 4 weeks.
From a structural perspective, we've already swept most of the meaningful liquidity sitting towards the downside, while consistently front-running the highs and leaving a significant amount of buy-side liquidity untouched.
This creates an interesting imbalance in the liquidity profile.
The market has spent weeks pricing in fear, forcing people out of their positions and building a bearish bias while the liquidity resting above remains largely unclaimed.
Now, that Buy-Side Liquidity becomes the next logical target.
Fear is leading Greed right now and that's exactly when we get the most aggressive reversals to catch the majority off guard.
I'm holding this trade until new highs or invalidation...
This position currently isn't looking great and is sitting in drawdown. At this point, it looks increasingly likely that this one could get stopped out. This was a much earlier entry compared to my other swing long positions, so naturally, it has more room to fluctuate before the thesis plays out.
Nonetheless, this isn't the time to panic or close the long simply because price is moving against the position. My overall HTF expectations haven't changed, and I'm not going to let short-term volatility dictate my longer-term positioning.
The recent pullback, driven by the Binance hack and the growing bearish narrative surrounding the market, doesn't change my expectation of new highs in 2027.
In fact, price developing a bearish narrative into the U.S. midterms and my 4–6th pivot is something I'm paying close attention to. Historically, bearish narratives into these periods have often aligned with important market lows. If sentiment remains bearish going into the pivot, I wouldn't be surprised to see it mark a local low before a push to the upside.
If this position gets stopped out next week around my pivot, I'll be looking for another opportunity to establish a swing long. The plan would be to use a 10% invalidation and target new ATHs.
Nothing has changed with the bigger picture. I'll either hold this position until new highs or respect the invalidation and look for a re-entry.
The selling started with Amazon and Intel's after-hours drop, before the hack was public.
Then futures outsold spot about 7 to 1 as new shorts and hedges piled in, and dealers likely short gamma into this morning's expiry could have added to it.
Now we are down near the 50w ($76.1k), which we want to see act as support here.
Every major negative news event or crisis following the initial rally after a bear market bottom has historically marked the formation of a major higher low before continuation to the upside.
This doesn't necessarily mean the exact higher low bottom is already in, but we're getting really close.
In a bull market, bad news and FUD typically create some of the best buying opportunities.
$BTC I was wrong in expecting the push into the 90K region before forming the major re-accumulation range.
This doesn't change much of the overall plan, but price will need to consolidate and range around these levels before making another push towards the highs.
FUD like this happens every cycle and typically marks the formation of a major higher low.
I remain in all my swing longs. This isn't the time to be closing positions. Let the dust settle and look for opportunities.
The HTF trend hasn't changed. The bottom is in, and I expect a new ATH next year. 🃏