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Oil prices have exploded again. Trump directly rejected Iran’s conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has once again climbed back above $100, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has surged to a near 20-year high. The U.S. stock market opened and immediately sagged.

As I watched the screen, what I was thinking was: will $BTC follow the decline this time? In the kind of macro environment we had before, big bets would definitely be pushed around. But today, it somehow holds up pretty well. It seems like funds are starting to treat it as a "chaos hedge." Even more wild, gold actually fell below 4200, and silver was down 5% in a day—falling harder than stocks. That suggests the market isn’t afraid of inflation; it’s afraid of rates being "higher for longer."

My take: as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t back in operation for a day, risk assets won’t be able to sleep easy for a day. $BTC will most likely wobble with the stock market in the short term. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t panic-sell. If talks really break down, then the volatility drama is when the show actually starts.

Tonight, I’m watching two things: crude oil and the U.S. Treasury yields. Those are the remote controls for everything on the board.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #cryptocurrency

In the US pre-market, everything is green—but this time it has nothing to do with the crypto market at all—it's oil prices going crazy.

Things are simple: Trump directly rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He says talks will continue, but Brent crude immediately surged to above $107, up more than 4% intraday. Global 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were pushed to a near 20-year high. Gold, meanwhile, fell below 4200, and silver got hammered, down 5% in a single day. Doesn't this script look like the classic night before a stagflation shock?

$BTC these days is following the macro with zero complaints. Oil up → inflation expectations rise → interest rates “higher for longer” → risk assets all take a beating. Crypto prices right now are basically a macro high-beta toy—don’t rush to bottom-pick; wait for real developments from the Middle East.

What I personally care more about is the “diesel export ban” Trump mentioned, saying it’s something he’s “very seriously considering.” If it actually happens, it would pour fuel on the inflation fire. In that case, $BTC ’s “digital gold” narrative could be reignited—because in chaos, stockpiling coins is easier than stockpiling oil.

If you’ve got ammo, don’t panic. If you don’t have ammo, don’t use leverage. The US pre-market won’t have small swings tonight.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #宏观经济 #中东局势 #原油 #Cryptocurrency

Tonight’s market picture is a bit interesting—let me highlight a few key points.

Trump has directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While he says negotiations will continue, oil prices have jumped anyway as a kind of “welcome gift”—Brent has reclaimed the $100 mark and even touched above $108. WTI has surged to 96, up more than 4% in a single day. UK diesel prices have already hit a record high, and Trump is still seriously considering banning diesel exports.

Even more surreal: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has spiked to near its 20-year peak, yet gold has fallen through 4200, and silver is down 5% on the day. Translating this combo pack: it’s essentially a stagflation trade—oil prices are pushing inflation higher, interest rates aren’t coming down, and risk assets are all feeling uncomfortable.

$BTC is in a rather awkward spot right now. On paper, geopolitical conflict plus damaged fiat currency credit should be its home turf, but the actual price action looks more like a risk asset—when Nasdaq futures fall 0.8%, it falls right along with them. Only when oil tops out and yields ease back might capital turn back to it.

Also, Iran’s foreign minister has said it is “fully prepared to restart the war,” so this fight isn’t going to end anytime soon. If the energy storyline keeps intensifying, don’t rush to bottom-fish—hold your hands.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #宏观经济 #油价 #地缘政治 #cryptocurrency

One word for tonight’s US stock market open: chaos.

Trump directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and both Brent crude shot back above $108 in one go, with WTI also climbing above $94; US stock index futures all plunged together. Even more worrying is that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is heading toward its highest levels since 2007, and Bessent has already started urging the Federal Reserve to show some mercy.

What’s interesting is that gold didn’t do any better either—spot gold slipped below 4200, while silver fell straight by -5%. The logic isn’t complicated: yields have surged too hard, and the “higher for longer” interest-rate expectations are battering all assets, even safe-haven ones can’t escape.

For this kind of high-risk asset like $BTC , it’s definitely taking a beating in the short term. With the backdrop of tighter macro liquidity, don’t rush to bottom-fish. But from another angle, if oil keeps rising like this, inflation expectations will only get reinforced. That’s where the anti-inflation narrative for Bitcoin may actually have a chance.

My approach is simple: stay lightly positioned and wait. In a macro-driven market, technicals are basically just for show.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #美联储 #Bitcoin

The Asia/US market opened and it hasn’t been calm—$BTC is getting hammered by macro forces tonight.

The biggest thing: Trump directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent surged back above $100 in one go, up more than 4% on the day. WTI is back above 94. If the strait talks can’t be reached, oil won’t be topped out.

Even more troublesome: UK diesel prices hit a historical high, and Trump also said he will “seriously consider” banning diesel exports—this fire in energy markets can’t be put out in the short term.

The bond market is even scarier. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped to a near-20-year high. Global bond yields have collectively returned to levels last seen in 2007. Gold couldn’t hold either, slipping below $4,200, while silver fell 5% in a day. US stocks opened lower, and risk assets were hit across the board.

But the key point is that $BTC didn’t crash along with gold this time. Its role this time is more like a macro amplifier: as soon as either yields or oil prices spirals out of control, leverage gets liquidated first—regardless of fundamentals. In the short term, just watch two things: whether US-Iran talks this week can be made to work, and when the liquidation cycle is going to ease.

Don’t panic if it drops—but don’t rush to catch falling knives. Protect your positions before trying to pick bottoms.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #美联储 #crypto

Once oil prices rise, the crypto world kneels first.

Trump directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude broke through $107, and global bond yields skyrocketed to the highest level since 2007. Futures contract $BTC followed the Nasdaq down as well—just as long as Trump doesn’t rule out continuing airstrikes on Iran, risk assets won’t get a quiet life.

The most surreal part is gold and silver—the “safe-haven bros.” Spot gold fell nearly 3% intraday; the $4,200 level was broken in an instant, and silver was even worse, plunging 5% directly. The logic isn’t complicated: oil prices feed inflation, and the market starts pricing in the Fed’s “higher for longer”—and even the possibility of renewed rate hikes. In the face of interest rates, any narrative about “gold as a number” has to step aside.

$ETH and small-cap coins with even higher beta—forget it.

Iran’s foreign minister even said they are “fully prepared to resume the war.” This week has the ADP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls triple release—plenty of volatility to go around.

My take: until the macro data lands, don’t reach out to catch falling knives—save your bullets.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #加密货币 #宏观分析 #Nonfarm week

In the U.S. pre-market, crypto markets took another hit along with the broader macro environment.

The core issue is simple: Trump has refused Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped straight to over $107. Iran then said it is “fully prepared to resume the war,” while a New York delegation simply said there are no plans to talk with the United States. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations flare up again, and the market starts betting the Fed will be even more hawkish—global bond yields have hit the highest levels since 2007. Who can withstand that?

The result is that the whole room went risk-off: gold fell nearly 3% intraday to 4150, while silver was even worse, dropping 5%. $BTC and Nasdaq futures also moved downward. Even CoinDesk’s headline made it clear—because Trump did not rule out blowing up Iran again ahead of the midterm elections.

Personally, I think there’s a slightly paradoxical point here: in the past, when there was a war, gold would rise as a safe haven—but now even gold is falling. That suggests the market isn’t afraid of the war itself; it’s afraid of “higher for longer” interest rates. High-beta assets like something as volatile as $ETH $SOL will face even more short-term pressure.

This week also brings the ADP, PCE, and Non-Farm Payrolls triple data release. If the data points toward further rate hikes, don’t rush to buy the dip—keep your ammo.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #宏观经济 #美联储 #中东局势 #Cryptocurrency

Brent crude has dried up to $107. Trump has directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and even warned that he may not rule out launching several more rounds of strikes before the midterm elections. Oil prices have shot up, and risk assets are collectively having a tough time.

What’s more troublesome is the bond market: global bond yields have hit the highest level since 2007. Gold is down nearly 3% today to 4156, while silver has been slammed by 5%. This isn’t a traditional safe-haven move—it’s liquidity pricing changing.

The logic isn’t complicated: oil prices rise → inflation expectations return → rate-hike expectations heat up → yields weigh down every risk asset. $BTC has been moving lower alongside Nasdaq futures, and $ETH hasn’t escaped either. In the short term, this is just the macro shadow—don’t talk about an independent market.

My view: when geopolitics and rates both come down on you, don’t rush to catch a flying knife. This week still has ADP, PCE, and the Non-Farm Payrolls. If the data isn’t weak enough, there will be a second wave of pressure. Wait until panic has fully played out.

If you hold spot positions, control your position size. Staying in cash and watching from the sidelines isn’t bad either.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #宏观 #美联储 #cryptocurrency

Tonight’s market looks a bit magical—let’s break it down.

Trump directly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped to above $107, and was up more than 3% intraday. Even harsher: global bond yields simultaneously refreshed their highest levels since 2007. Risk assets collectively can’t catch their breath.

The most unbelievable part is this: spot gold fell nearly 3% intraday, dropping toward the $4,150 area; silver was even worse, down 5% in a single day. Why isn’t gold up during wartime? The logic isn’t complicated—oil prices surge → inflation expectations come roaring back → the Fed’s “higher for longer.” Rate-hike bets heat up, and precious metals are hit first and hardest.

$BTC also didn’t escape, sliding down together with Nasdaq futures. Trump says he doesn’t rule out striking Iran again before the midterm elections, but then talks about restarting negotiations this week. Iran’s foreign minister fires back with a straight “We don’t trust you.” In a market where headlines fly all over the place like this, chasing longs or shorts is basically handing money to other people.

My personal take: this round of macro narrative behind $BTC is increasingly like a high-beta version of the Nasdaq. In geopolitical conflict, it neither acts as a safe haven nor behaves like a true risk asset—it all comes down to liquidity sentiment. $ETH is basically the same setup. This week, the U.S. ADP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls are all on deck one after another. Before the data lands, don’t get carried away—leave a bit of room in your positioning.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #美联储 #地缘政治 #宏观经济

Oil today dragged the whole market down.

Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent jumped straight above $107. Even more alarming: global bond yields moved in sync, hitting the highest level since 2007—this one-two punch is a bit fierce.

What’s most counterintuitive is that safe-haven assets didn’t escape either: spot gold fell nearly 3% intraday, breaking below 4200, and silver was even worse—down more than 5%.

The logic actually makes sense—when oil prices rise, inflation becomes the focus again, and the market starts betting that the Fed will keep hiking rates. In an era when interest rates are moving up, gold can’t hold up either, let alone anything else.

$BTC and the Nasdaq futures both plunged. Trump also hasn’t ruled out launching a few more rounds of strikes against Iran. This week we also have PCE, ADP, and Non-Farm Payrolls hitting back-to-back—if inflation again comes in hotter than expected, risk assets will likely take another blow.

Personal take: don’t rush to catch a thrown knife—wait for oil prices and yields to turn before acting. Hold onto spot positions by closing trading apps; if you’re on the sidelines, watch from the sidelines and sip milk tea. In this kind of market, itchy hands are basically handing out money.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #比特币 #加密货币 #宏观经济 #美联储

Tonight’s market is two words: strained.

Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped above $107, and global bond yields hit their highest level since 2007. Once oil prices rise, inflation expectations take off—markets are betting on the Fed staying “higher for longer.” Gold and silver, however, suffered instead: the gold price slipped below 4200, down nearly 3% intraday, while silver was directly slammed by 5%.

Even $BTC can’t dodge it—futures moved down alongside the Nasdaq. Trump also said he doesn’t rule out further strikes on Iran. This is the standard macro panic playbook: risk assets get cut first.

To be honest, most of the selloff driven by geopolitical conflicts is emotion-driven liquidation. The story for $ETH $BTC is still intact, and ETF flows haven’t seen any large-scale exodus. If things are going to keep breaking down, we’ll have to see whether this week’s ADP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls deliver.

My plan: no bottom-buying, no going all-in—wait for the data to land first.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #地缘政治 #美联储 #cryptocurrency

Brent crude spiked above $107. And $BTC , along with Nasdaq futures, took a tumble too—this script feels a little familiar.

It started when Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and said he wouldn’t rule out further action. Brent was up more than 2% intraday, while global bond yields surged to the highest levels since 2007.

The most unbelievable part was gold. By the old logic, wars should make it rise, right? But spot gold dropped 3% in a day to around 4,150, and silver was even worse—down 5% straight. The logic isn’t complicated: when oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise with them. The market then starts betting on the Fed being “higher for longer.” But when real yields tick upward, precious metals get pinned to the ground.

Now $BTC is basically a high-beta risk asset—whatever way the oil price chart goes, it goes along with it. This week also has ADP, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls all lined up back-to-back. If the data comes in strong, tightening expectations will only get harsher.

My take: don’t rush to catch falling knives. As long as oil doesn’t cool off, “bottom-fishing” is just digging a hole for yourself. Wait for signals and keep your hands in check.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #宏观经济 #美联储 #Geopolitical

As the European session just opened, the market was immediately hit with a cold splash.

Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surged straight to $107, and Iran even said it was "ready to resume the war." At this rate, don’t expect a quick deal anytime soon.

As oil prices jump, inflation expectations rise right away. Spot gold fell nearly 3% intraday, dropping below $4,200, while silver got hit even harder, plunging 5%. This drop in gold is not really about safe-haven demand fading; rather, the market is starting to price in a Fed path of "higher for longer" rate hikes — U.S. Treasury yields have even hit their highest level since 2007, absurd.

$BTC weakened along with Nasdaq futures, and $ETH $SOL also came under pressure. Put simply, this round of declines has nothing to do with crypto fundamentals; it’s purely being dragged down by oil prices.

My take is simple: don’t rush to buy the dip in the short term. This week still has a triple hit of ADP, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls. If the data come in strong, yields will keep pushing higher, and risk assets will continue taking a beating. Wait until oil prices stabilize or geopolitical tensions ease before acting.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #Nonfarm Payrolls

Iran has shut the door on talks again. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent jumped straight up 1.5% at the open; U.S. stock index futures shook along with it. This person even renamed the Strait of Hormuz as "the Trump Strait"—I really have to admire the naming taste.

Even more surreal are two sets of numbers: Trump said Iran’s inflation has already hit 318%; the Speaker of Iran’s parliament fired back in kind—"Congratulations to the United States on its 5.1% ten-year Treasury yield. We’ll help you relive the 1970s too—plus high oil prices and a diesel shortage."

Translated: oil prices rise → inflation expectations climb → rates can’t stay down. This combo punch is really unfriendly to risk assets. $BTC lately has shown a noticeably higher correlation with oil prices; when the macro wind blows, it drops first out of courtesy.

But look at it another way: in a place where inflation is 318%, holding the local currency is just losing. For ordinary people trying to preserve purchasing power, besides gold and the U.S. dollar, $BTC $ETH is actually one of the few options they can still hold. Bitcoin’s narrative has never been driven by candlestick charts—it’s driven by real-world demand forced into being.

Today, there could be another round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in New York, and the news flow can flip at any moment. For the short term, keep your hands off impulsive decisions at the peak of headlines—holding spot positions steady is stronger than anything else.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #中东局势 #油价 #cryptocurrency

In the afternoon Asian session, the market looks oddly calm, yet macro news over there has really blown up.

Trump directly rejected the proposal for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude opened up 1.5%, and U.S. oil followed with a rise of over 1%. He’s also seriously considering a ban on diesel exports. Oil prices rise → inflation can’t be contained → Bessent starts urging the Federal Reserve to “remain open” on the inflation outlook. Iran’s parliamentary speaker is even worse: he directly mocked the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield for breaking above 5.1%.

In this liquidity environment, it’s honestly pretty hard for $BTC to try to trade independently and strengthen on its own.

But there’s one number that’s almost magical: Trump said Iran’s inflation is 318%. In the places where the local currency has depreciated more than three times over a year, that’s precisely the most hard-hitting ad slot for the Bitcoin narrative. $ETH $SOL will wobble in the short term with macro sentiment, but in the long run, it still comes down to whether each story plays out.

One more thing in passing: the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic were summoned to testify in Australia. With AI regulation tightening, hot money inevitably has to find the next exit.

My stance is simple: until geopolitics is actually settled, consolidation is the main theme. Stay disciplined, don’t overtrade, and keep your ammo.

#BTC #比特币 #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #加密货币

NFA DYOR

The oil price at Monday’s opening started by delivering a warning shot.

Trump rejected a peaceful proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent jumped directly by 1.5%, with WTI also rising by more than 1%. Old-school Trump says both the military and the economic war are “guaranteed wins” on his tongue, but oil prices are honest: once supply tightens, pretty words can’t hold it back.

What’s even more troublesome is diesel. Trump said he is “seriously considering” banning diesel exports. If that actually lands, global energy costs would be pushed up another step.

Its impact on $BTC comes in two layers: in the short term, risk-averse sentiment heats up, and U.S. stock index futures tonight will face pressure—high-beta names like $ETH $SOL will be hit first; looking longer term, oil prices drive inflation and the interest-rate-cut path gets thrown off course, and Bessent is still urging the Fed to stay “open” to inflation. When fiat currency credit is repeatedly shaken by geopolitics, the hard-asset narrative becomes even harder.

Iran’s inflation is already 318% (said by Trump—numbers may be inflated, but the direction is right). In places where fiat currencies are breaking down like this, on-chain adoption is genuinely rising.

Don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term—wait until the mood in the U.S. session has fully released. The long-term logic hasn’t changed.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #宏观经济 #加密货币 #BTC #geopolitics

The oil price has been trending all morning. Trump outright rejected Iran’s peace plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped 1.5% at the open—no respect given at all.

This whole scene looks pretty surreal: Trump, on the one hand, is saying “the war will end soon and oil prices will fall,” while on the other hand he’s seriously considering a diesel export ban. In Iran, inflation has surged to 318%. The foreign minister says they’re ready for a “doomsday war,” yet the negotiation door hasn’t been shut completely. Both sides are essentially putting on a show for their respective base audiences.

For $BTC , this environment isn’t actually that bad. Geopolitical risk is heating up plus oil prices are rebounding; inflation expectations are rising too. Even the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been mocked up to 5.1% by Iran’s parliamentary speaker. The risk-off narrative and the anti-inflation narrative are both in motion at the same time—historically, that combination has been favorable for hard assets.

Don’t miss one more detail: Bessent said Iran’s offshore crude stock is down to just 15 million barrels, and they may complete the final round of deliveries to China within two weeks. The real question is when that supply-side “time bomb” will go off.

Liquidity hasn’t fully returned since the weekend—pricks/needle-like moves are the norm. Don’t get carried away.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #地缘政治 #油价 #宏观经济 #cryptocurrency

On Monday’s morning Asia session, first let’s talk about the big picture: Trump rejected Iran’s peace plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped straight up 1.5% at the open. This Middle East situation looks like it’s far from over.

My view is simple: the geopolitical risk premium can’t come down in the short term. Iran’s foreign minister has said it is “fully prepared to resume war.” Trump is tough-talking, but indirect negotiations in New York still leave a crack in the door. As long as oil prices stay elevated, inflation expectations won’t be suppressed, and the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts has to be discounted. That is a real, direct drag on risk assets like $BTC .

But if you look at it from another angle: Iran’s inflation has reportedly surged to 318%, and the script of the local currency becoming basically worthless keeps playing out again and again. In this kind of environment, the “crypto as an inflation-hedge safe haven” narrative will likely be brought up repeatedly, and long-term capital may not necessarily leave.

$ETH is still moving with the overall market for now—don’t expect an independent行情 in the short term.

As for operations, my advice: this week has too many variables, and Asia-session volatility may increase. Don’t chase one-sided trades—keep your position sizing under control, and wait for the U.S. session to give a clearer direction before acting.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #以太坊 #地缘政治 #BTC #Cryptocurrency

After the weekend, the market took a hard blow. Trump refused to restart the Iran Strait’s peace plan, and Brent crude jumped 1.5% at the open; risk assets were collectively on edge.

A few details are especially interesting:

Iran’s foreign minister declared that it is "fully prepared to resume war," and also seized a U.S. unmanned underwater vehicle in the strait. Trump didn’t mince words either—he directly referred to the strait as the "Trump Strait," implying that another move could be made before the midterm elections. Judging by this, don’t expect any easing in the short term.

Even more surreal was the mocking from Iran’s parliamentary speaker: congratulations to the U.S. on a 5.1% decade-long Treasury yield—we will make the U.S. relive the 1970s—high oil prices, diesel shortages (Trump is seriously considering a diesel export ban), and high interest rates. This stagflation script is getting more and more like the real thing.

Pressure on $BTC : with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1%, liquidity is the key. Bessent is also urging the Fed to keep an open attitude toward inflation, and rate-cut expectations are again hanging in the balance.

My take: $BTC in the short run will track oil-price sentiment. If the U.S.-Iran New York talks this week fail, volatility will jump straight to the max. Keep your position sizing under control—don’t get carried away.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #BTC #地缘政治 #宏观经济 #加密货币

Asian Handicap Morning News｜Trump Fails to Derail Talks Again

The first thing I saw when I opened my eyes this morning: Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to restart the Strait of Hormuz talks, saying the “price is too high.” Brent crude opened up straightaway, jumping 1.5%. This oil price has not had a quiet weekend at all.

For $BTC , split it in two to look at it. The inflation theme isn’t looking great—oil prices rise, inflation expectations follow suit, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already touched 5.1%. Bessent was so anxious that he spoke over the weekend, urging the Federal Reserve to “remain open” regarding the inflation outlook—put simply, he’s asking them not to get hawkish too quickly.

But the safe-haven theme is a plus. Iran’s foreign minister said they are “ready at any time to resume war,” and they even picked up a U.S. Navy unmanned underwater vehicle. Trump also wouldn’t let it slide and even started seriously considering banning diesel exports. The worse the geopolitics get, the stronger the safe-haven narrative for $BTC .

My take: With news flipping back and forth multiple times a day, chasing the order is basically handing money to someone else. Wait for the New York open to see whether $ETH can hold up, and then decide the direction. For now, hold your hands in the morning.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #油价 #加密货币