Tonight’s U.S. stock close was genuinely thrilling.
Trump outright rejected the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with Iran—Brent crude immediately shot up to $107, jumping more than 4% intraday. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks went broadly lower.
Even harsher: the bond market—10-year U.S. Treasury yields crept to near the highest level in almost 20 years, and global yields collectively returned to the levels of 2007. There’s a line from Saxo that really stings: “Supply disruptions become prolonged, and combined with rates staying higher for longer,” it’s a double hit.
What’s most confusing is gold. It broke below $4,200, and silver fell 5% in a single day. In theory, in a risk-off environment, gold should take off—but when liquidity tightens, even “winning” assets get cut to meet margin calls. $BTC also didn’t escape; it took a beating right alongside risk assets.
There’s another looming risk to watch closely: Trump said he is “seriously considering” banning diesel. UK diesel prices have already hit a historic high. If this actually lands, inflation expectations will likely get another shot of fuel.
My take is simple: as long as oil can’t calm down, $BTC is unlikely to break out of an independent move in the near term—don’t rush to catch falling knives. On the flip side, the more chaotic the fiat world gets, the tougher the long-term story for crypto becomes. Hold firm. Don’t panic.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #美股 #cryptocurrency
Trump outright rejected the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with Iran—Brent crude immediately shot up to $107, jumping more than 4% intraday. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks went broadly lower.
Even harsher: the bond market—10-year U.S. Treasury yields crept to near the highest level in almost 20 years, and global yields collectively returned to the levels of 2007. There’s a line from Saxo that really stings: “Supply disruptions become prolonged, and combined with rates staying higher for longer,” it’s a double hit.
What’s most confusing is gold. It broke below $4,200, and silver fell 5% in a single day. In theory, in a risk-off environment, gold should take off—but when liquidity tightens, even “winning” assets get cut to meet margin calls. $BTC also didn’t escape; it took a beating right alongside risk assets.
There’s another looming risk to watch closely: Trump said he is “seriously considering” banning diesel. UK diesel prices have already hit a historic high. If this actually lands, inflation expectations will likely get another shot of fuel.
My take is simple: as long as oil can’t calm down, $BTC is unlikely to break out of an independent move in the near term—don’t rush to catch falling knives. On the flip side, the more chaotic the fiat world gets, the tougher the long-term story for crypto becomes. Hold firm. Don’t panic.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #美股 #cryptocurrency