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Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, the market's focus has shifted from 'whether to cut rates' to 'how to achieve a rate cut.' Barclays' latest interpretation suggests that, despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell is likely to be a key force driving the rate cut.
From the current distribution of FOMC voting members' positions, a subtle balance has been formed. According to Barclays' interpretation of the recent statements of the committee members, without considering Powell's position, there might be 6 members within the FOMC leaning towards keeping rates unchanged and 5 leaning towards a rate cut, which creates considerable uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision.
Despite the divisions, Barclays believes that Powell, as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will play a leading role in the final interest rate decision. This is because the threshold for other board members to publicly oppose the Chairman's position is quite high. This means that if Powell leans towards a rate cut, he is likely to have the ability to guide the FOMC towards a final decision to cut rates.
This judgment contrasts with predictions from other Wall Street firms, such as Goldman Sachs, which still believes there is a possibility of a rate cut in December; while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley no longer expect the Federal Reserve to take action to cut rates in December.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, the market's focus has shifted from 'whether to cut rates' to 'how to achieve a rate cut.' Barclays' latest interpretation suggests that, despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell is likely to be a key force driving the rate cut.
From the current distribution of FOMC voting members' positions, a subtle balance has been formed. According to Barclays' interpretation of the recent statements of the committee members, without considering Powell's position, there might be 6 members within the FOMC leaning towards keeping rates unchanged and 5 leaning towards a rate cut, which creates considerable uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision.
Despite the divisions, Barclays believes that Powell, as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will play a leading role in the final interest rate decision. This is because the threshold for other board members to publicly oppose the Chairman's position is quite high. This means that if Powell leans towards a rate cut, he is likely to have the ability to guide the FOMC towards a final decision to cut rates.
This judgment contrasts with predictions from other Wall Street firms, such as Goldman Sachs, which still believes there is a possibility of a rate cut in December; while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley no longer expect the Federal Reserve to take action to cut rates in December.