亮哥玩币

$RIVER Trading Strategy Recommendations

1. Short-term Strategy

Direction: Slight weakness with range-bound trading, buy low and sell high.
Entry Points:

Short: If price rallies to the 18.15–18.50 zone and shows signs of exhaustion (e.g., long upper wicks, shrinking volume), enter a small position short, with stop-loss placed above 18.80.

Long: If price drops to the 16.50–16.00 zone and shows signs of bottoming out (e.g., small bullish candles, increasing volume), enter a small position long, with stop-loss placed below 15.80.
Take-profit Targets:
Short target: 17.50 → 16.80.
Long target: 17.50 → 18.00.

2. Breakout Strategy

Upward Breakout: If volume expands and price breaks above 18.80, consider entering long with target at 19.50 → 20.00.
Downward Breakout: If volume expands and price breaks below 15.80, consider entering short with target at 15.00 → 14.50.
Note: Must be accompanied by a significant increase in volume; otherwise, it could be a false breakout.

3. Risk Management

This instrument has high volatility; position size should be limited to 3–5%.
Always set stop-losses strictly to avoid large losses due to sharp price movements.
Avoid frequent trading during periods without a clear trend.

$ETH Trading Strategy Recommendations

1. Short-term (Intraday/Swing) Strategy

Direction: Wait and observe or trade within a range, waiting for a directional breakout.
Range Trading (Buy Low, Sell High):

Short: If price rallies to the 3,180–3,190 zone and shows signs of weakening, enter a light short position, with stop-loss placed above 3,195.

Long: If price drops to the 3,145–3,125 zone and shows signs of bottoming out, enter a light long position, with stop-loss placed below 3,120.
Profit Target:
Short Target: 3,155 → 3,145.
Long Target: 3,170 → 3,180.

2. Breakout Strategy

Upward Breakout: If volume expands and price breaks above 3,195, consider going long, targeting 3,220–3,250.
Downward Breakout: If volume expands and price breaks below 3,120, consider going short, targeting 3,100–3,080.
Breakout Condition: Must be accompanied by a clear increase in volume; otherwise, it may be a false breakout.

3. Risk Warning

The market is currently in a narrow-range consolidation with low volatility, offering limited trading opportunities.
Suggested position sizing: 5-10%, with strict stop-loss discipline.
If no breakout occurs over an extended period, the market may continue to trade sideways—patience is key.

Key Watch Points

1. Direction of EMA divergence after convergence: If EMA(7) begins to diverge upward, a short-term rebound may be underway; if diverging downward, a potential decline may follow.
2. Clear MACD Golden Cross/Death Cross: Currently near the zero line—monitor its future direction closely.
3. Volume changes: Only breakouts with volume expansion are reliable signals.

Summary

Short-term: Tight consolidation; recommend waiting or light range trading.
Medium-term: Direction unclear; wait for breakout confirmation before entering.
Risk Management: Use small positions, strict stop-loss, and avoid frequent trading during consolidation.

$BTC Trading Strategy Recommendations

1. Short-term (Intraday Trading) Strategy

Direction: Slight bearish bias in consolidation, but proceed with caution.
Entry Points:
Short: If price rallies to the 91,800–92,200 zone and faces resistance, consider light short positions, with stop-loss placed above 92,500.

Long: If price declines to the 90,800–90,600 zone and shows reversal signals (e.g., small bullish candles, increased volume), consider light long positions, with stop-loss set below 90,400.

Profit Targets:
Short target: 90,800 → 90,200.
Long target: 91,600 → 92,000.

2. Medium to Long-term Strategy

Current EMA(99) remains above the current price, indicating the medium to long-term trend is still in adjustment.
Recommendation: Stay on the sidelines, waiting for clearer trend signals (e.g., volume-driven breakout above EMA(99) or breakdown below key support).

3. Risk Warnings

Although MACD has formed a golden cross, it remains below the zero line, suggesting limited upside potential.
Volume has not significantly increased; beware of false breakouts.
Recommend position sizing between 5-10%, and strictly set stop-losses.

Key Observation Points

1. Whether volume breaks above 92,500: A volume-driven breakout may shift the short-term trend to bullish.
2. Whether price breaks below 90,600: A breakdown may accelerate downward toward 89,000–88,000.
3. Whether MACD crosses above the zero line: If so, the rebound strength may increase.

Summary

Short-term: Consolidation phase; recommend range trading with high sell, low buy.
Medium to long-term: Still in adjustment phase; recommend staying cautious or taking light speculative positions.
Risk Management: Strict stop-loss usage, avoid over-leveraging.

As you progress in the crypto world, you'll eventually realize something counterintuitive:
It's not that you're not working hard enough, but that your 'direction' of effort was wrong from the very beginning.
A common mistake beginners make is believing that 'the more you study, the less you'll lose.'

Scrolling through tweets daily, following KOLs, learning trading strategies and indicators
The system gets more complex, yet your account balance keeps shrinking.

You think you're improving,
but in reality, you're just masking lack of discipline with complexity.

Today it's AI narratives,
Tomorrow it's MEME hype,
Then 'inside information'
Switching coins every week, using 5 different coins and 3 different systems.

You say: 'I'm optimizing my strategy to be foolproof,'
But in truth: 'I can't admit my last trade was wrong.'
So you keep switching assets and strategies, spreading your losses out so they don't hurt as much—classic韭菜 behavior.

After years of losses, I finally accepted one truth:

90% of retail investors don't lose because of wrong direction, but because of 'too many choices.'

So I stripped everything down to just one powerful model:
Single coin + Single direction + Wave cycle
So simple it's laughable, yet so stable it's unbelievable.

How exactly does this model work?

① Focus on only one coin (BTC or ETH, pick one)

Avoid trends, don't chase narratives, don't become an emotional victim.

You don't have an information edge,
your only advantage is focus.

Watch one coin for three months,
you'll understand its behavior better than 99% of others.

② Only trade with the trend (go long when rising, go short when falling)

No bottom-fishing, no guessing tops, no betting on reversals.

The market is the boss, you're just an employee.
If the boss gives you work, do it; if not, wait.

You don't need to understand the trend—just follow it.

③ Position sizing (let 'right' trades make big profits, 'wrong' ones only cost skin)

Trial position = ticket fee
Confirmation = add position
Pullback = take profit
Wrong move = exit immediately

Structure determines fate, not win rate.

A real, undeniable result: A beginner fan, with only 6,000 U capital last June, no insider info, no heavy positions, no magic moves.
Just three actions: trade with the trend, wait for the right entry, follow the rules strictly.

Less than a month later: 6,000 U → 21,000 U
Not a miracle—just discipline compounded.

Why can't most people learn this? Because it's too boring.
Accepting periods of inactivity, tolerating every loss, giving up dreams of quick riches.
Crypto isn't about who's the smartest—it's about eliminating those who can't control themselves.$BTC $ETH

The dinner money is secured! #事件合约

Recent price trend of $ETH

Price fluctuated within the range of 3,180–3,308 over the past 24 hours
Trading volume is active, market sentiment is bullish, and the medium-term trend is upward

Trend analysis

Short-term price is in a consolidation phase with a bullish bias, currently within an uptrend channel
Moving averages provide clear support, and MACD indicates upward momentum
Monitor resistance at the previous high of 3,308

Trading strategy recommendation

Mainly go long on dips, consider entering lightly in the 3,250–3,260 range
Stop-loss: below 3,230
Target: 3,300–3,320
If price breaks above 3,308, target could extend to above 3,350
Avoid counter-trend short positions

$RIVER Trading Strategy Suggestions

✅ Suitable Trading Styles:

Swing Trading (Going Long After Short-Term Pullbacks)
Trend Following (Medium to Long-Term Long Positions)
Be cautious with risk management due to extremely high volatility

🟢 Long Strategy (Main Approach)

1. Entry Timing:
Wait for a pullback to near EMA(25) (approximately 18.50 - 18.80) or the previous support zone (17.00 - 17.50).
If price breaks above 19.50 and holds, consider entering with a light position.
2. Stop-Loss Level:
Set below 17.00.
Or set based on personal risk tolerance, 3-5% below entry price.
3. Target Levels:
Short-term target: 20.50 - 21.00.
Medium-term target: 23.00 - 24.00.

🔴 Short Strategy (Proceed with Caution)

1. Suitable only for short-term or hedging:
If price breaks below 18.50 and MACD shows weakening, consider a light short position.
Target: 17.50 - 17.00.
2. Stop-Loss:
Set above 19.00.

$BTC Trading Strategy Suggestions

✅ Long Strategy (Recommended: Light position, phased entry):

1. Entry Point: Around current price 92,900, or on pullback to 92,500–92,700
2. Take Profit: First target 93,500, second target 94,000
3. Stop Loss: 91,800
4. Position Suggestion: ≤ 5%, consider phased accumulation

⚠️ Short Strategy (High Risk, suitable only for short-term):

1. Entry Point: Near resistance zone 93,800–94,000
2. Take Profit: Around 92,500
3. Stop Loss: 94,300
4. Position Suggestion: ≤ 3%, quick in and out

🔄 Range Trading Strategy (High-frequency buy low, sell high):

Range: 92,500 – 93,800
Buy low, sell high, suitable for short-term high-frequency trading

After being in the cryptocurrency world for a long time, you will admit one iron law:
The more complex the strategy, the faster you die.
The people who like to 'research' the most are the ones who easily research their accounts to the ground.
Many retail investors change several coins and several systems in a single day,
Claiming to 'optimize strategies',
In reality, they are accelerating their losses —
They are inexperienced and love to tinker, yet think they are evolving.
After stumbling for a few years, I have only left one of the most stable models:
Single coin + one-sided + wave cycle.

Focus on one coin, only go with the trend, and squeeze every bit of the trend dry.
Because it is stable enough, clear enough, and most importantly: not easily swayed by emotions.
① Only deal with mainstream: BTC / ETH (choose one)
Don't switch from AI today, to MEME tomorrow, to Dogecoin the day after.
You are not trading; you are binge-watching a series.
Focus on one target, and the rhythm will become more accurate.
② Only go with the trend: buy on the rise, sell on the fall

Do not bottom fish, do not guess the top, do not bet on reversals.
The market gives direction, you follow; if the market has no direction, you wait.
Don’t use your little cleverness to challenge the trend — the trend is specifically designed to put you in your place.
③ Position splitting: a structure of small losses and large gains

Light positions at low levels (get a ticket)
Increase positions at key levels (gain certainty)
Open up space and take profits in batches (secure profit)

Strict stop-loss on losses (protect your life)

Try to maximize profits (make money)
I had a follower with a capital of 6000U,
Executed three consecutive trend-following trades strictly according to the rules,
In 3 days, made it to 16800U.
Not relying on luck, but on: discipline + structure.
Why can this method outperform a bunch of retail investors?

Only focus on one coin: less noise, decisive action
Entry and exit written in advance: no reliance on on-the-spot emotions
Small losses + large wins: a typical win rate can still yield long-term gains

But it is not for everyone.
It eliminates: those who chase highs and sell lows, emotional traders, those who love to gamble, and those with zero execution.
It belongs to: traders who want to steadily and methodically follow a system.

$ETH Trading Strategy Suggestions

1. Breakout Long Strategy

Entry Condition: Price breaks above 3,250 with increased volume (significant increase in active buying)
Stop Loss: 3,200
Target: 3,266 → 3,300–3,350

2. Pullback Long Strategy (Main Recommendation)

Entry Zone: 3,210–3,220
Confirmation Signal: MACD histogram turns positive, basis rebounds
Stop Loss: 3,180
Target: 3,250–3,266

3. Short Strategy (Cautious)

Entry Condition: Price falls below 3,200 and basis continues to be negative, large trader long-short ratio starts to decline
Stop Loss: 3,230
Target: 3,180 → 3,150

4. Risk Warning

Current position volume is high, prone to severe fluctuations.
Basis is negative, indicating insufficient market confidence for further increases, beware of false breakouts.
It is advised to enter the market with light positions in batches, enforce strict stop loss, and avoid chasing highs.

Summary Suggestions

Short-term bias is oscillating upwards, but facing strong resistance at the previous high of 3,266.
It is recommended to prioritize pullback longs, and not to chase increases.
Key Observation Points:
Whether large traders' positions turn (long-short ratio breaks below 2.2)
Whether basis turns positive (sentiment turns bullish)
Whether trading volume supports breaking the previous high

$BTC Trading Strategy Suggestions

1. Breakout Strategy (Bullish)

Entry Conditions: Price breaks above 94,000 with increased volume, MACD bars expanding.
Stop Loss: 93,400
Target: 94,760 → 95,500

2. Pullback Buy Strategy

Entry Conditions: Pullback to 93,200–93,400 stabilizes.
Stop Loss: 92,800
Target: 94,000–94,500

3. Short Selling Strategy (Cautious)

Entry Conditions: Price falls below 93,200 and the basis continues to be negative.
Stop Loss: 93,800
Target: 92,500–92,292

4. Risk Warning

Current position size is high, prone to severe fluctuations.
The basis is negative, indicating insufficient market confidence for further increases.
It is recommended to trade with a light position, strictly implement stop losses, and avoid chasing highs.

The risk of going long at this position is high, huh? 😅

$RIVER

Today's highest point prediction: 14.2 - 14.5 (highest probability)
If it breaks through 14.5 with increased volume, it may reach 15.5 - 16.0.
If the rise lacks strength, the maximum may only reach around 13.9.

🚨99% of people use the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) incorrectly

You think it's a buy and sell point indicator,
but the ones who truly make money only use it to judge one thing:

👉 What stage is the market currently in?

This graphic thoroughly explains the "underlying logic" of Bollinger Bands👇
🧵 (recommended to bookmark)

① Three lines moving up / down simultaneously

📈📉 This indicates a trend, not a fluctuation

Three lines moving up → Bullish trend
👉 Buy on the middle line's pullback, not chasing highs

Three lines moving down → Bearish trend
👉 Sell on the middle line's rebound, not trying to catch a bottom

❗ In trending markets:
The lower line is not a buying point, and the upper line is not a selling point

② Three lines parallel

🔁 This indicates a ranging market
No trend, only rhythm

Buy on the lower line, sell on the upper line
Do not place breakout orders, do not discuss trends

❗ Using trend thinking in a ranging market,
You will definitely face repeated stop losses

③ Three lines significantly contracting

⏳ This is the eve of a trend change (most important)

Volatility is extremely low

Both bulls and bears are "holding back"

A major market movement often starts from here
❗ At this time, the only correct action is:
Wait for direction, do not place bets

④ Bollinger Bands suddenly opening

🚀 The market enters an acceleration phase

Opening upwards → Bullish explosion

Opening downwards → Bearish sell-off

Usually accompanied by: increased volume + extreme emotions

❗ This is not the phase to catch bottoms or tops,
but rather the phase to hold positions in the direction of the trend

🔑 In one sentence, the essence of Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands do not tell you buy and sell points,
but rather tell you:
Is it suitable for trading now?

If the direction is right,
what indicators to use are just details.

📌 Bookmark this graphic
📌 Forward it to friends who are still "misusing indicators"
📌 You will save at least 3 years of detours

Now the giant whale is selling at a high, and most traders are doing the same. Be cautious when going long! $RIVER

$RIVER Current Status

1. Price Reversal: Failed to hold 13.5, short-term weakening.
2. Position Changes:
Whales: Long-short ratio dropped from 374% to 320%, net selling of 363K in 30 minutes, clear profit-taking.
Traders: Long-short ratio dropped from 281% to 257%, net selling of 482K in 30 minutes, synchronized reduction in positions.
3. Profit Ratio Decline:
Whales' long profit ratio decreased from 96.72% to 65.67%.
Traders' long profit ratio decreased from 79.35% to 62.66%.

Key Signal Interpretation

1. Whales and Traders Synchronized Net Selling:
Short-term profit-taking pressure is high, upward momentum is weakening.
Whales' selling volume far exceeds buying volume, indicating that large players are bearish on the short-term trend.
2. Price Breaks EMA(7):
Short-term trend turns to oscillation or pullback.
Next support looks at 12.844.
3. MACD Convergence:
DIF and DEA are still positive, but the histogram shrinks to 0.055, indicating weakened upward momentum.

Future Market Projection

If it continues to decline:

First Support: 12.84
Second Support: 12.62
Key Support: 12.17 - 12.19

If it rebounds:

First Resistance: 13.23
Strong Resistance: 13.5
Breakthrough Difficulty: Unless whales reinstate net buying, rebound space is limited.

Conclusion

1. Short-term Trend: Look for a pullback, as large players and traders are synchronously taking profits, and the price has broken below the short-term moving average.
2. Operation Suggestions:
Long Positions: It is recommended to reduce positions or move stop losses up to below 12.8.
Short Positions: Consider lightly shorting when rebounding to 13.2 - 13.3, target 12.8 - 12.6.
Observers: Wait for the price to test the 12.6 - 12.8 range for stability before deciding whether to enter long.
3. Key Observations:
Whether whales reinitiate net buying.
Whether the price can hold above 12.8.

Summary: After a failed breakthrough, it turns into a pullback market, with short-term targets looking at 12.8 - 12.6; if broken, it may test 12.2. Upside requires re-establishing stability at 13.2 and observing the return of large buyers.

$BTC Trading Strategy Suggestions

Plan A: Trend Following Short-term Buy (Enter on Pullback)

Entry: Enter long position when the price pulls back to 92,400-92,600.
Stop Loss: Set below 92,000.

Targets:
First Target 93,380
Second Target 94,500

Plan B: Short on Resistance (Counter-Trend Light Position)

Entry: Enter short position when the price stagnates in the 93,350-93,400 range.
Stop Loss: Set above 93,600.

Targets:
First Target 92,200
Second Target 91,500

$RIVER Trader long position profit ratio is high (79.35%), holding position is advantageous.
Whale long position profit ratio is 96.72%, but there has been a net sell-off in the last 30 minutes.

Explanation: The breakout may be driven by retail or small traders, with whales reducing their positions at highs.

Is the breakout valid?

The price has risen above 13.5, but the marked price is higher (13.55), indicating that the sentiment in the perpetual contract market remains bullish.
If it can stabilize in the range of 13.4 - 13.5 (for example, if the hourly close does not break 13.3), then the breakout is valid.
If it quickly falls back below 13.3, it may be a false breakout.

Target Range

If it continues to rise (stabilizing at 13.5):

· First target: 13.8 - 14.0
· Second target: 14.5
· Ultimate target: 16.0 - 16.7 (previous high)

If there is a pullback (false breakout or profit-taking):

· First support: 13.0 - 13.1
· Second support: 12.7
· Deep pullback target: 12.5 - 12.0

$ETH Trading Strategy Suggestions

1. Short-term Trend Assessment

The market is leaning towards bullish, but a pullback may occur near 3,197.

Although whales and smart money are generally bullish, there has been net selling in the short term, and caution is needed for a pullback.

2. Trading Strategy (Recommendations)

✅ Bullish Strategy (Mainly Long)

Entry Zone: 3,160–3,165
Stop Loss: Below 3,150
Target: 3,195–3,200; if broken, aim for 3,220–3,250

⚠️ Bearish Strategy (Operate with Caution)

If the price fails to break through 3,197 and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, MACD divergence), consider testing short positions with light exposure.
Entry: Around 3,195
Stop Loss: Above 3,205
Target: 3,160–3,165

📊 Risk Management Suggestions

Keep position size within 5–10%, and avoid excessive leverage.
Monitor the real-time net buying and selling behaviors of whales and traders; if continuous net selling occurs, bulls should reduce positions.

Just finished speaking and it poured! $RIVER