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The threat of criminal prosecution by the chairman of the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the market's concerns about the independence of the central bank, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will still make policy decisions based on economic data. Concerns about the possible impact of the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing, and the latest news on the criminal investigation against Chairman Powell further reinforces this concern. Powell will still make decisions based on economic data for the rest of his term, and will not be biased in any direction due to pressure. Whether it is interest rate hikes or cuts, he will follow the data guidelines.
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The probability of the Federal Reserve cuting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 4.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.6%. By March, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 27.6%, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 71.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.1%.
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Among the 37 million hotline calls handled by the Russian Social Foundation in 2025, the number of non-standard consultations on cryptocurrencies increased significantly. The consultation mainly focuses on whether Russian citizens can receive pensions with cryptocurrencies, and whether cryptocurrency mining income will be included in the social welfare calculation. The foundation responded that all pensions and social funds are issued in rubles, and the tax and income issues related to cryptocurrencies are the responsibility of the Tax Service of the Russian Federation. In addition, the Chainalysis report shows that Russia received $376.3 billion in cryptocurrencies between July 2024 and June 2025, making it the largest cryptocurrency market in Europe. At present, the Central Bank of Russia proposes to allow retail investors to purchase specific cryptocurrencies with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles under the premise of passing the test.
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Among the 37 million hotline calls handled by the Russian Social Foundation in 2025, the number of non-standard consultations on cryptocurrencies increased significantly. The consultation mainly focuses on whether Russian citizens can receive pensions with cryptocurrencies, and whether cryptocurrency mining income will be included in the social welfare calculation. The foundation responded that all pensions and social funds are issued in rubles, and the tax and income issues related to cryptocurrencies are the responsibility of the Tax Service of the Russian Federation. In addition, the Chainalysis report shows that Russia received $376.3 billion in cryptocurrencies between July 2024 and June 2025, making it the largest cryptocurrency market in Europe. At present, the Central Bank of Russia proposes to allow retail investors to purchase specific cryptocurrencies with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles under the premise of passing the test.
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The U.S. Senate passed a resolution on the power of war by a vote of 52 to 47, limiting Trump's ability to take military action against Venezuela.
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