🚀$SPCX From the IPO pricing of $135 to now above $200, the market cap has soared to a whopping $2.6 trillion. At this level, investors aren't just buying current profits; they are banking on the future narratives of Starlink, Starship, defense contracts, xAI, Cursor, and even space data centers.
The narrative is massive, and the valuation is stretched.
Right now, SpaceX's short-term strength is driven by several factors:
① Initial circulating supply is quite low ② Strong demand at IPO ③ Hot options trading ④ Anticipation of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 ⑤ Musk's narrative naturally attracts attention
So it can continue to be strong in the short term, possibly even rally higher.
However, starting from late July / August, the logic will gradually shift.
What we've seen is a "buying frenzy" phase, but it will transition into a "earnings verification + unlocked supply" phase.
The period from September to December will see a more intense window of ordinary lock-up shares being released. By the first half of 2027, we will also face psychological milestones related to longer lock-ups and Musk's lock-up period.
Adding to this, today's Fed meeting indicates that the market hasn't fully relaxed. QQQ and BTC are both showing weakness, suggesting that risk appetite hasn't fully restored. If the Fed leans hawkish, high valuation and high volatility assets are likely to see their valuations compressed.
My understanding is straightforward:
In the short term, watch the liquidity. In the mid-term, focus on earnings and unlocks. In the long term, see if SpaceX can truly convert the narratives around Starlink, Starship, and AI into cash flow.
First, analyze the structure, then observe the price.📌
What do you all think? Is it heading for a rally or a pullback?
⚠️ The next crucial factor for BTC isn't the price, but the timing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
At the start of June, BTC briefly hit around $60,000. By mid-June, it bounced back to around $66,000.
I'm primarily looking at 6 key phases:
1️⃣ | June 17–18 ⚠️ Fed / Interest Rates / Press Conference First, let's check the Fed's tone. If it's hawkish, risk assets might get squeezed again; if not so hawkish, BTC could have a chance to test the upper resistance again. This part is just about short-term spikes, not confirming a major bottom.
2️⃣ | June 18–July 3 ⚠️ $70,000 / ETF / Shallow Bottom Confirmation If BTC can hold steady at $68,000–$70,000, and ETF funds flow back in consistently, then around $60,000 could signify a shallow bottom. If it keeps failing to break above $70,000, we need to be cautious about this repair.
3️⃣ | June 24–28 ⚠️ CME / Futures Settlement / Liquidation Around June 26 is the CME BTC futures settlement window. It might not determine the trend, but it's likely to amplify volatility.
4️⃣ | July 14–31 ⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Bank of Japan I'll be particularly cautious during this period. If BTC hasn't held above $70,000, and there's no clear ETF inflow, mid to late July could see a second dip. Observation zones: $62,000–$64,000, $58,000–$62,000, $52,000–$56,000.
5️⃣ | August 12–September 18 ⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Major Bottom Window If we can't break above $70,000 consistently, I'll pay more attention to $52,000–$56,000. It may not reach there, but it looks more like a major bottom observation area.
6️⃣ | October 13–November 25 ⚠️ Historical Cycle / Major Bottom Confirmation If the previous structure hasn't cleared out, this could be a larger cycle confirmation window. BTC's bottom often takes time, capital, and sentiment to materialize, not just a few weeks.
💫 My Judgment:
June: Repair window. Mid to late July: First danger window. Mid-August to mid-September: Major bottom observation window. Mid to late October: Cycle confirmation window.
⚡️ Three Key Levels:
⚡️ $68,000–$70,000: Can the repair hold? ⚡️ $58,000–$62,000: Can the shallow bottom hold? ⚡️ $52,000–$56,000: Is the major bottom forming?
Until funds flow back in, any rebound is just a bounce. Until the structure stabilizes, any repair isn't a reversal.
First, focus on timing, then events, and finally how the funds choose to play out.
SpaceX just blasted up to 216 today, even hitting close to 230 during the session.
Honestly, what stands out to me isn’t that the "company suddenly got better," but rather:
Market sentiment has returned, There's not much liquidity, For a stock like SpaceX, once it starts climbing, the shorts and those missing out find it hard to keep their cool.
My observations are:
135 is the issuance/cost zone, a comfy spot, 190–200 is the first round of reasonable re-evaluation, Above 216 we’re already seeing some hype, 225–230 is short-term resistance, If it can hold above 230, we might see a continued short squeeze, But if it drops below 205, we need to watch out for a sentiment pullback, If it can’t hold 195–200, this chase for highs might start to unwind.
So, I’m not looking to chase long around 216, nor am I going to short it directly.
At this point for SpaceX, it’s not just about whether it’s “expensive” or not, but looking at:
Do you think SpaceX is currently in the first wave of a historical asset re-evaluation, or is it a large emotional short squeeze created by low liquidity? #spcx #SpaceX $SPCXB
🚀Did we just hop on a SpaceX rocket? SpaceX shot up from 135 to 200 in no time, that pace is just insane. This isn't just a regular pump; it's like the whole market is scrambling for a ticket to "Musk's future empire." This price action is no ordinary stock rally; it’s a mix of hype, liquidity, chip scarcity, and IPO fever that’s blown the charts wide open.
A lot of folks keep saying: Valuation is too high. Losses are too big. Musk's story is too grand. SpaceX isn’t worth this price.
I don’t completely disagree with these points.
But the thing is, the market isn’t really debating “overvalued or not” right now; it’s all about trading:
1. The largest IPO in the world; 2. Extremely low float; 3. Rapid growth in Starlink users and revenue; 4. The super narrative of SpaceX + xAI + space computing; 5. Institutions, retail investors, and index funds are all vying for chips; 6. Shorts want to hammer it down, but there aren't enough chips to do so.
The most surreal part is right here:
Bears talk valuation, Bulls talk future, But right now, the market is all about the chips.
That’s why the more people short it, the higher it goes. Because this phase isn’t about dissecting earnings reports; it’s about “who can grab a ticket.”
Of course, I don’t think this is a time to just mindlessly chase. Now that we’re nearing 200, it’s definitely not a comfy buy zone. The real test ahead will be the lockup expiration, earnings reports, Starship progress, xAI’s cash burn, and whether valuation can be validated by revenue.
But I have to say, this SpaceX wave is really fascinating.
Right now, I most want to ask everyone:
Do you think this SpaceX wave is the beginning of a historically super asset, or is it just a massive short squeeze driven by IPO excitement and low float?
The 2026 World Cup opener is coming, Mexico MEX🇲🇽 vs South Africa RSA🇿🇦. Who's down to ride this hype together? Let's take a small position and go live with some real trading. Gotta trade gold and silver too, and don't forget to catch the World Cup action! #2026世界杯开幕 $XAU $XAG
🚨 Trump just made a nuclear-level harsh statement: “The entire Iranian civilization will perish tonight; we have achieved a complete regime change in Iran.” The countdown to the deadline has begun, and tonight's global risk-aversion sentiment has been completely ignited.
This extreme market with a flood of breaking news is most likely to make people lose their heads.
My core trading thought is very clear: prioritize stability, control the initial position lightly, and gradually add to the position once the subsequent movement is confirmed.
I will not pay attention to the various noises in the market; I will only place limit orders in advance at key support and resistance levels, and let them naturally execute when reached; if not reached, I won't care, and I will never force my entry.
If the subsequent movement confirms my judgment, I will then gradually add to my position to amplify my profits. In this market, surviving longer is always more important than making a quick profit.
Do not chase highs or lows, and absolutely do not FOMO.
Currently, the main line in the market remains strong gold and weak silver. Gold has attracted genuine war risk aversion buying, responsible for setting the big direction, while silver is dragged down by its industrial properties and macro expectations, primarily amplifying volatility. When trading silver tonight, be sure to keep a close eye on the gold market.
For those used to making stable limit orders on the left side, you can refer to the ambush:
Lower support level (suitable for catching dips/incremental long orders) 1️⃣ 72.05 - 71.85 2️⃣ 71.60 - 71.25 3️⃣ 70.85 - 70.35 4️⃣ 69.80 - 69.20 5️⃣ 68.45 - 67.75
Gold $XAUUSDT When trading silver, you must look at gold. If gold does not break through the upper resistance zone with volume, silver is highly likely to be knocked down after a rise.
The holiday isn't over yet, and gold and silver have already started to go crazy.
Without any sense of fairness, they began to insert up and down, slapping left and right.
This kind of movement is no longer a normal fluctuation,
It's emotions starting to get out of control + insufficient liquidity + funding rates continuing to collect rent,
Whoever is anxious will be the first to take a hit.
I'm watching these positions:
$XAGUSDT
Looking up first: 72.10–72.28 Then looking higher: 72.45–72.70 / 72.95–73.25 / 73.55–73.95 / 74.30–74.80
Looking down first: 71.55–71.25 Then looking lower: 70.95–70.60 / 70.25–69.85 / 69.45–68.95 / 68.40–67.80
$XAUUSDT
Looking up first: 4638–4648 Then looking higher: 4658–4668 / 4678–4692 / 4705–4722 / 4738–4760
Looking down first: 4622–4615 Then looking lower: 4602–4590 / 4578–4562 / 4548–4528 / 4508–4480
What I'm most afraid of right now is, It's not the lack of direction. It's that just after you took two slaps, you start to think you understand again.
I will continue to see if it has finished pulling. Do you think after this wave of washing, Is it bullish? Or bearish?
In the past two days, silver has risen from 67.72 to 76.10, and just now it has dropped back to 69.72. Gold has risen from 4419.21 to 4794.47, and just now it has dropped back to 4557.6.
What the market loves to clean up is not those who misjudge the direction but those who get excited and increase their positions.
Today they shout for the peak, tomorrow they shout for the bottom. Once volatility comes, orders die first. That's not called trading, that's called gambling.
I don't gamble on one side. I only wait for the price to return to its natural zone. If it reaches the target, I will trade; if not, I won't chase, no FOMO.
Currently, the market situation is no longer about who rebounds first, but who can reclaim the key support first.
Gold seems more like a pullback confirmation after a high-level rhythm is interrupted, silver seems more like a weak recovery after a breakdown.
My observation As long as 4620—4600 holds, it looks more like a high-level fluctuation, not directly turning weak. But if it really wants to rewrite stronger, it at least needs to reclaim 4675—4710 first.
My observation The most critical point for silver now is not how much it has bounced, but whether 71.20—70.80 can hold, and whether it can stand back at around 72. If it can't stand back, it's still a weak recovery. If it stands back, it qualifies to touch the top again.
So for this wave, I'm not in a hurry to write one-sided positions. I will first observe the support and then see if there will be a second pricing.
Leave a comment Who do you think will reclaim the rhythm first, will it be gold or silver?
Gold hasn't broken down, but the bullish rhythm has been interrupted, Silver has already weakened first, and in the short term, gold is likely to be strong while silver is weak.
On one side, Trump's statement on Iran hasn't provided a real path to resolution. The market's concerns about the escalation of the situation in the next two to three weeks still persist, with oil prices and risk premiums not retreating.
On the other side, the U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI returned to 52.7, but the price component surged to 78.3, indicating that this is not a relaxed recovery but rather a situation where growth, inflation, and supply shocks are intertwined.
Additionally, China's March official Manufacturing PMI returned to 50.4, which indeed supports silver, a commodity with industrial attributes. However, this support is not strong enough to absorb all the pressure above.
So the current rhythm is more like:
Gold is showing strong fluctuations, while silver is showing weak fluctuations. First, we look for support, then see if there will be a second pricing.
My observation: As long as gold holds above 4650, the market looks more like a high-level consolidation. However, to truly rewrite it stronger, it needs to stabilize above 4710.
My observation: The most critical factor for silver right now is not whether it rebounds, but whether it can return to 72. If it can’t return, it remains weakly corrected. If it returns, it has the qualification to touch above 73.
Leave a comment: Do you think the one that stabilizes first will be gold or silver?
PMI hit a new high since August 2022, the S&P continues to rebound, but EIA inventories suddenly surged In theory, this should pressure gold and silver, but gold first broke 4783.99, and silver also touched 75.83
This is not simply a flight to safety Nor is it merely risk-on
It feels more like Growth expectations have returned But supply shocks and inflation have not gone away
The situation in the Middle East is still ongoing Aluminum plants have already started to halt On the oil side, crude oil inventories are bearish, while refined oil inventories are tight
On my end, I am still Just waiting for the right position, not chasing, not fomo Gold first to see if it can continue to peak Silver to see if it will catch up Don't take a single piece of news as certainty
Gold 4742.86, Silver 75.70 Those who just entered haven't had time to be happy, and the market has already given a slap.
This market is currently the easiest to hurt people. It's not the drop. It's the rise that makes people think they understand.
$XAU The gold high point has been established, it's still hovering above. $XAG The silver high point has been established, it has already started to slide down.
So don’t be in a hurry to shout together strong. It now looks more like Gold is still holding on, Silver has already shown signs of weakness.
I’m still doing the same thing here. Place orders in advance, If it reaches, I'll do it, If not, it’s fine. No chasing, no changes, no sudden decisions. In these situations, FOMO is the easiest way to give away money.
Tonight, first watch the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This data is the first step tonight. If it comes out strong, The dollar will turn around, This wave of gold and silver highs will likely be taken for profit first.
Then silver is likely to first look at 74.10—73.90 Then look at 73.70—73.40 If weaker, look at 73.10—72.80.
Gold will first look at 4710—4698 Then look at 4688—4665 If deeper, look at 4655—4635.
But if tonight's data is not that strong, or the dollar continues to weaken, Then tomorrow's Asian session still has a chance to test above.
Gold above will first look at 4728—4743 Then look at 4743—4758 Reserve above 4758—4778 / 4795—4820.
Silver above will first look at 74.45—74.60 Then look at 74.80—75.00 Then look at 75.20—75.40 The core is still 75.40—75.70. Reserve above 75.90—76.30.
My own observation is very simple. As long as gold can still hold steady, Silver still has a chance to recover. But as long as gold relaxes, Silver will likely drop first.
So here I won't bet on rising or falling, Just wait for the position. When the time comes, I’ll enter; if not, I’ll just watch. Discipline and position control always come first.
$XAGUSDT Silver just hit 74.19. I had a short order at 74.18, and in the end, the market fed it to me.
It almost stopped at 74.16. I didn't change my order, nor did I chase.
If I get it, I get it, If I don't, then so be it. I won't let discipline turn into emotions.
The most valuable part of this wave, Is not that I guessed the high point correctly, But that I set my position in advance, And then waited for the price to come find me.
Gold is still grinding above 4600, Silver has already broken through the 74 level. I'll remember this note:
74.18, this time it wasn't written casually.
In the comments section, I'll continue to keep an eye on the second leg. #XAGUSTD #XAU $XAG $XAU $XAUT
My high-position short order was just automatically taken by the market. Gold rose from 4419 to 4582, and silver climbed from 67.72 to 73.57. The most valuable part of this wave is not guessing the ups and downs, but whether you have set your positions in advance. I don't bet on a one-sided market; I only wait for the price to return to a natural range: buy low, sell high, eat when it arrives; if it doesn't, don't chase. Right now, I'm focusing on two levels: XAUUSDT looks for support around 4520, XAGUSDT is watching if it can hold the 72 level. If it holds, it can continue to recover; if it doesn't hold, let's first look for a pullback.
Leave a comment: Do you think this wave will be: first a second upward surge, or first a downward wash? $XAG $XAU $XAUT
Gold rose from 4419.21 to 4582.63, Silver rose from 67.72 to 73.57.
This wave is most likely to mislead people Not that there is no market It is too easy to write the repair as a one-sided move
I don't bet on ups and downs I just wait for the price to return to its natural position Buy low, sell high, eat when it gets there If it doesn't reach, I don't chase, I don't FOMO, and I don't place emotional orders
This time the push upwards is not just one line pushing On one side, Trump has started to relax his stance on Iran, and the market has removed part of the worst-case scenario On the other side, the situation in Hormuz, oil prices, the dollar, and yields have not fully receded Additionally, China's PMI returned to 50.4 in March, and the industrial attributes of silver were also lifted
So I won't declare it to be strongly bullish all the way What I care more about is After gold spikes, can it catch the pullback After silver spikes, will it fall behind again
My observation: Hold 4550—4538, the repair is still ongoing If I want to write it as a larger bullish trend, at least I need to reclaim 4600—4620 If it drops back below 4525—4510, this wave will return to a repricing after the spike
My observation 71.60—71.30 is the most critical support recently Staying above 71, the structure is still relatively strong Once it drops 70.20—69.80 again, this wave looks more like a pullback after emotional upswing, not like it has stabilized
This wave of repair relies on three things to support it Trump's wording has shown a softening expectation China's PMI returning to 50.4 Gold dropped too hard before March, making it easier to rebound
But there are also three things pressing down Brent / WTI are still at high levels The dollar rose about 2.9% in March Tonight there is JOLTS, tomorrow there is ISM, if the data is strong, the market will think about inflation and interest rates again
So my underlying logic remains unchanged I don't bet on one side, first set the framework If the price is willing to come, I will act If the price doesn't come, I will wait
Leave a comment: Do you think this wave will first loosen gold or silver?
I will continue to monitor the second leg in the comments If you want to see further updates, please follow
Just now, the 'stock god' Trump has started drawing lines again, with a statement of 'significant progress in negotiations', gold and silver initially surged; a statement of 'if negotiations fail, we will continue to target Iranian power plants, oil wells, and Hark Island', oil prices have reattached the risk premium.
So this upward movement, I won't write it as if the bulls have completely taken over. It feels more like the market is being dragged by the headline:
On one hand, we are pressing for negotiations to not fail, on the other hand, we are preventing oil prices from exploding again. Brent and WTI are still at high levels, the dollar and interest rates haven't completely retreated.
From the market perspective:
$XAU has just reopened that upper layer, but what is truly valuable now is not how high it has surged, but whether it can catch the pullback after the surge.
$XAG is the same, silver has followed this wave fairly well, but as soon as it falls back, it lags behind, then it still relies on news to drive it, it's not a structure that has stabilized itself.
XAU First look at 4560—4575 Then look at 4580—4600 Then look at 4620—4650
First look at 4535—4515 Then look at 4500—4485 Then look at 4465—4445
XAG First look at 71.20—71.70 Then look at 71.80—72.20 Then look at 72.80—73.20
First look at 71.00—70.80 Then look at 70.50—70.20 Then look at 69.80—69.50
My judgment is placed here:
This wave is not due to the market suddenly becoming optimistic, it's Trump again 'doing T' during the session. To continue writing upwards, first see if gold can stabilize around 4550, and if silver can hold the 71 line. If it can hold, the repair can continue; if it can't hold, let's first look at the repricing after the surge.
Leave a comment: Do you think this wave will first ease for gold, or silver?
I will continue to monitor the second foot in the comments. If you want to see updates during the session, just follow.