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Is On-Chain Data Manipulable? 🧐

While raw on-chain data recorded on the blockchain is immutable and cannot be falsified—thanks to decentralization and consensus mechanisms—the interpretation and usage of this data can still be "misleading." Fundamentally, raw transactions like wallet balances or transfer histories are always truthful. However, large investors (whales) can execute massive transactions (e.g., transferring a large amount of crypto to an exchange) with the aim of creating false fear or optimism in the market. This is manipulation achieved through valid transactions used to mislead smaller traders. Furthermore, analyzing on-chain data without sufficient context or relying on a single metric can lead to misleading conclusions about market trends. Therefore, investors need to filter for reliable analytical sources and always combine on-chain data with technical and macro analysis for a comprehensive view. In summary, on-chain data is a powerful tool, but it must be used cautiously and objectively to avoid being influenced by market-leading narratives.

Continuing with the current market context, as BTC has broken below the $90,000 level and is struggling to hold $89,000. Most altcoins are unlikely to maintain sideways price action under BTC’s selling pressure, let alone move higher.
Futures Market Signals
SHORT $DOGE
• Entry: 0.13546
• TP (-6%) 👉 0.12733
• SL (+3%) 👉 0.13952

SHORT $1000PEPE
• Entry: 0.0041866
• TP (-6%) 👉 0.003934
• SL (+3%) 👉 0.004312

As two top-cap memecoins that typically move in strong correlation with BTC, when Bitcoin faces resistance or downside pressure, DOGE and PEPE are very unlikely to hold their price levels.

IS ALTCOIN SEASON STILL ALIVE?

Altcoin season still exists, but it no longer unfolds as a broad, market-wide explosion like in previous cycles. Instead of most altcoins surging together when Bitcoin moves sideways, capital is now concentrated in only a small number of standout projects. The main reason is the oversupply of altcoins, which fragments liquidity and forces investors to be far more selective. The growing presence of institutions and spot ETFs also channels capital primarily into Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than across the entire altcoin market. As a result, the strategy of buying a basket of altcoins and expecting all of them to perform well is no longer effective. In the current phase, altcoin season is localized and heavily driven by short-term narratives. Only altcoins with clear stories, real capital inflows, and strong media momentum are able to outperform the market. Bitcoin still plays a crucial role, as altcoins can only thrive when BTC remains stable and avoids major volatility. This shift turns the altcoin market into a game of selection and rapid rotation.

In short, altcoin season is not dead, but it now rewards only those who pick the right coins at the right time and within the right trend.

The situation is that during the U.S. Sunday trading session, BTC has failed to hold the $90,000 level and is showing signs of losing the $89,000 level as well. As a result, LONG positions are unable to maintain balance, let alone generate profits. With no momentum in the market, top-cap altcoins are likely to decline gradually until the beginning of the new week.

Futures Market Signals
SHORT ADA and SUI — enter now

Take Profit (−5%)
• ADA: 0.3783
• SUI: 1.50

Stop Loss (+3%)
• ADA: 0.4102
• SUI: 1.63

Trust Wallet was acquired by Binance in 2018 and has since undergone major changes in scale, features, and ecosystem integration. The wallet became more deeply integrated with Binance’s ecosystem, especially BNB Chain, Binance DEX, Binance Connect, and fiat on-ramp services. With support from Binance’s resources, Trust Wallet expanded to support hundreds of blockchains, tokens, and NFTs instead of focusing mainly on Ethereum as before. New features such as in-wallet swaps, staking, a built-in DApp browser, and broader Web3 functionality were significantly developed. Security standards and update frequency also improved thanks to a larger technical team. Despite this, Trust Wallet has remained a non-custodial wallet, meaning users fully control their private keys. The TWT token was introduced to serve governance purposes, user incentives, and community engagement.

Over time, Trust Wallet has operated as a more independent legal entity while still maintaining product-level connections with the Binance ecosystem. Binance’s backing helped Trust Wallet scale rapidly in terms of users and global adoption.

Futures Market Signals
Short $FARTCOIN entry 0.3765- 0.3665
TP 0.3565
SL 0.3865
This position is still performing well today and is generating profits, everyone.
FARTCOIN has shown complete correction signals amid the broader downturn of $PUMP and the overall market at the start of the U.S. session yesterday.
The move down toward the lower band is helping Fartcoin consolidate and tighten its volatility range, setting up for stronger price breakouts if this memecoin can maintain its hype across social media and the broader community.

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Tether has made a cash offer to acquire a controlling stake in Juventus from Exor and may potentially purchase the entire club. The company currently holds around 10% of Juventus and is expected to invest approximately €1 billion if the deal is completed. This move highlights Tether’s ambition to expand into traditional assets and potentially explore equity tokenization in the future.

The Tether–Juventus deal shows that fan tokens are entering a pivotal transformation phase. Fan tokens are no longer just “digital memorabilia” driven by fan sentiment, but are gradually evolving toward real digital ownership. When club equity can be tokenized, the value of tokens becomes directly linked to assets, revenue, and operational performance, rather than relying solely on hype or media narratives. This opens the door for global fans to participate in club ownership and investment in a more transparent way. At the same time, it signals the end of purely marketing-driven fan token models that lack core economic value. As a result, the boundary between fan tokens and security tokens is becoming increasingly blurred. Clubs gain a new capital-raising tool without being fully dependent on banks or traditional stock markets. However, legal and governance requirements will become significantly more stringent. The fan token market will inevitably undergo a strong phase of consolidation. Ultimately, only models tied to real assets and tangible rights will be able to survive sustainably in the next cycle.

Futures Market Signals
LONG $HYPE entry now at $29
TP: $31
SL: $28

HYPE stands out compared to the broader market in terms of potential, rebound strength, media attention, and tokenomics design.
The only thing HYPE is currently lacking is price stability and strong upward momentum from Bitcoin.

The correlation between HYPE and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025 is observed to be very high, indicating that HYPE often moves in the same direction as BTC. When Bitcoin rises, overall market sentiment improves and speculative capital tends to flow strongly into high-volatility tokens like HYPE. Conversely, when BTC corrects or drops sharply, HYPE usually faces heavy selling pressure and can decline more deeply than the broader market. Data analyses show the correlation coefficient between HYPE and BTC hovering around 0.9 or higher, highlighting a clear dependency. This is mainly because Bitcoin continues to play the role of the primary trend leader in the crypto market. In addition, HYPE is tied to a derivatives platform, where trading activity and leverage are heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price movements. The “hype” factor can amplify price swings but is not sufficient to detach HYPE from Bitcoin’s overall trend. As a result, HYPE is not a defensive asset during periods of strong BTC volatility. Only when Bitcoin enters a sideways or consolidation phase does HYPE have more room to express its own narrative.

In summary, HYPE is a token with a high correlation to BTC, making it more suitable for trend-following strategies aligned with Bitcoin rather than as an independent asset.

Futures Market Signals
LONG $TRX at now entry 0.2753
TP 0.2850
SL 0.2684

After the sharp crash during the early U.S. session last Friday, $TRX declined along with the broader market and has now confirmed a recovery in trading volume today. If there is no further unexpected sell-off, TRX is likely to move back to the midline of the Bollinger Bands on the daily timeframe.

As long as BTC holds above the $90,000 level, combined with TRX’s strong internal fundamentals and the solid price support from its holder community, TRX has ample upside potential to revisit its previous highs and accelerate faster than any other token in the top-cap category.

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Futures Market Signals
SHORT $M entry now 1.822
TP 1.64
SL 1.92

Thus, after $M has risen continuously for six days and the price has reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with trading volume confirming a healthy corrective move after a strong rally.
$M is a token with very strong media and community momentum, serving as the governance token of Memecore — a Layer 1 designed to build a meme ecosystem that is simple, easy to execute, efficient, and capable of turning ideas into reality 💪

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At the moment, there is no clear evidence that Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend has completely ended. BTC has dropped significantly from its peak, indicating that short- and mid-term momentum has weakened. Several technical signals, such as a break in bullish market structure and unfavorable moving-average crosses, suggest the market is entering a correction or distribution phase. However, this is still not enough to confirm the start of a new long-term bear market. In previous cycles, Bitcoin experienced multiple 20–40% pullbacks while the broader uptrend remained intact. The key question now is whether BTC can hold its major long-term support zones. If price continues to form lower lows and loses long-term moving averages, the probability of the uptrend ending will increase. Conversely, if BTC consolidates sideways and long-term capital flows return, the uptrend may still continue. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have not capitulated on a large scale. Therefore, Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend is being challenged, but it has not been officially invalidated yet.

Following the major market crash since October 10, 2025, TRX and BNB have stood out as two of the best-performing tokens in the Top 50 in terms of capital preservation, showing significantly smaller drawdowns compared to the broader market. TRX (TRON) experienced minimal panic selling, with a very shallow decline and several periods of sideways price action while most other altcoins were heavily sold off. This reflects a clear defensive capital flow, supported by its large stablecoin ecosystem, consistent on-chain usage, and a strong base of long-term holders.

Meanwhile, BNB continues to reinforce its position as a true crypto blue-chip asset. Despite the market-wide crash, BNB recorded only a mild drawdown, quickly formed a higher low, and recovered more efficiently than most large-cap altcoins. Strong demand for BNB across the Binance ecosystem, combined with accumulation from institutions and long-term investors, helped maintain a constructive technical structure even during periods of extreme volatility.

👉 The fact that TRX and BNB declined less than the overall market is not merely a short-term anomaly, but a signal that capital is rotating into assets with real usage, clear utility, and strong defensive characteristics. These are typically the tokens that lead the recovery once market conditions stabilize.

Futures Market Signals
LONG $XRP new entry noơ 2.01 - 2.02
TP 2.09
SL 1.99

This position from yesterday can still be followed, everyone.
On the H4 timeframe, XRP has just retested the 2.01 level and is holding it quite firmly. From here, this confirms a bullish technical signal, with price moving toward the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. However, make sure that BTC and ETH maintain their strength to provide the momentum needed for XRP to continue its move.

Besides BTC and ETH, institutions and large corporations also hold several other important crypto assets to diversify their treasuries. Stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and DAI are among the most widely held, as they function as on-chain cash for liquidity management and accounting purposes. In addition, Layer 1 blockchains with strong ecosystems like SOL, BNB, AVAX, ADA, SUI, and APT are included in the long-term portfolios of many funds. These platforms offer growth potential through DeFi, NFTs, and trading infrastructure. Financial infrastructure tokens such as LINK, AAVE, UNI, and MKR are favored by institutions due to their clear utility and revenue-generating roles. This group of assets directly supports the core operations of the crypto market. Furthermore, the trend of real-world asset tokenization has increased interest in RWA-related tokens like ONDO, POLYX, and INJ. Some financial institutions also hold XRP or XLM to facilitate cross-border payments.

Overall, institutional portfolios tend to prioritize security, liquidity, and real-world use cases. Asset selection reflects a long-term strategic approach rather than short-term speculation.

Futures Market Signals
LONG $SUI at 1.59 to 1.61
TP at 1.67
SL at 1.53

After the sudden crash at the start of the U.S. session yesterday, SUI rebounded quite smoothly, delivering stronger performance than both BTC and ETH.
On the H4 timeframe, SUI has successfully reclaimed the midline of the Bollinger Bands, confirming bullish momentum toward the upper band.
If BTC maintains its strength, SUI is highly likely to break out with double the momentum 👍

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Solana has grown faster and stronger than many earlier Layer 1 blockchains not only because of its technology, but because it targeted the right users at the right time.

Low transaction fees and high speed allowed Solana to attract retail capital early, enabling small trades and constant experimentation. Its ecosystem lets builders develop products quickly, fail cheaply, and rotate capital efficiently. Solana consistently captured major narratives such as NFTs, memecoins, and consumer crypto, keeping liquidity and market attention high. The SOL token has real utility within the network, meaning capital flowing into the ecosystem must buy and hold SOL. Despite going through major crises, Solana survived and has become increasingly stable.

As a result, Solana is one of the few Layer 1s that successfully balances speed, cost, user experience, and liquidity, often emerging as a leading chain during bull market cycles.

Futures Market Signals
LONG BTC entry $90.000
TP $92.000
SL $89.500

BTC and ETH are retesting the $90,000 and $3,100 levels after last night’s crash during the early U.S. session. If these levels hold, they could provide momentum for a healthier price recovery tomorrow.

On the H1 timeframe, ETH is showing stronger performance than BTC. We are now in the 7th consecutive relatively quiet U.S. trading session, with total market capitalization ticking up only slightly and hovering around $3.06T. Under these conditions, without any new catalysts, BTC’s upside is likely limited to around 2% per day.

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In the context of a market that keeps crashing, trading is still possible, but it should not be approached the same way as during an uptrend. This environment is only suitable for short-term trades that aim to capture relief bounces after clear panic sell-offs. Entries must be based on strong support zones and confirmed technical signals, with no room for FOMO. When the market is highly volatile but lacks a clear trend, staying on the sidelines is the safest choice. Not trading is also a valid and smart decision in high-risk conditions. Traders should reduce position size and keep leverage low. Profits should be taken quickly without being greedy. Stop-loss orders are mandatory to protect capital. Long-term investors should only DCA into fundamentally strong projects and avoid weak, small-cap memecoins.

A market crash is not the time to take reckless risks, but a time to survive, and those who preserve their capital now will be best positioned to fully capture the next major rally.