灯塔说

Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

Robots: They’ve been suppressing me for a month—technology has finally corrected

I can finally step out and make my move

Pharmaceuticals: They’ve been pushing me down for half a year; I’m also going to stand up and move forward

Gold and silver: I want in too—I’ve been bullied to death recently

Many friends got to know me this time
and subscribed and followed on the channel.
My DMs got even busier—more people added me.

The main reason is that I’ve been synchronizing my trading logic and thought process with real substance—no hindsight or “after-the-fact” claims.
On Monday, I started reminding everyone about the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the potential benefits, and I laid the groundwork early by adding to long positions in crypto and gold.
The continuous posts can be traced back!

As for the US stock market: after Hynix announced that it would be listed on July 10 and the Nasdaq and broader market saw a pullback,
combined with the fact that NFP was a negative factor for the US dollar,
I looked at the impact on tech stocks.
So I chose to short Micron at 1150 (the dilution premium effect related to Hynix’s listing).

On Wednesday, there were Wausch’s sudden “hawkish-to-dovish” comments (the “gigi” statement) that came early enough to fulfill the bullish expectations for NFP,
allowing price action to move into a long bias ahead of time.
But on Thursday, the NFP data came in with a surprise, which further confirmed the certainty of Wausch’s claim that inflation had already been declining.

Also, on Thursday, in parallel, Meta’s selling off of excess compute capacity impacted storage again—it fell once more.
But the cloud vendors among the “Big 7” in US stocks propped things up.
By comparing and integrating the different signals, I reminded people of the reasons to go long Microsoft (MSFT): its valuation has a bit more upside.
In the end, the market delivered the answer—an upside move against the trend.

Last night, before sleeping, I watched the US stocks’ late-session selloff accelerate.
I kept waiting for an opportunity to buy, and Corning finally gave one at 193.
I calculated that the pullback from the peak was about 40%.
For a glass substrate that Nvidia values highly and that is very important in optical modules,
this pullback is extremely attractive.
The posts reminded people to pick up “the corpses” and become the next buyers.

Writing out this whole sequence of smooth operations isn’t meant to show off—it’s to record that trading must have logic and a thought process.
It’s not about blindly following.
Blindly following hearsay and rumors is not safe—you don’t know what to do when prices rise or fall.
Now that AI tools are this good, you can learn what you want by doing multiple exchanges with AI, and you’ll be able to get information you can reference.

Let me state again: this isn’t bragging, and it’s not “that impressive.” I’m still continuing to learn.
I’m not posting screenshots here either—most of it has already been synchronized and shared in earlier posts.
If you like it, give me a subscription and interact—encourage me to post more. (I’m kind of passive and slow to warm up; I usually don’t like to speak up proactively.)
Thanks for stopping by to watch the show.
$XAU $ETH $BTC

$GLW
Corning, Corning—going long and looking for a rebound against the bearish trend
The pullback is 40% now
You at the peak are 40% ahead of me—wait for me, I’ll catch up
【Personal viewpoint only as a record; not investment advice】

Although Corning is currently pulling back quite hard
we still will buy it

Good thing we held back before
no FOMO

Now you can patiently and easily wait for a buying opportunity
$GLW
#美光股价跌10.5%

Today can achieve a perfect wrap-up
Micron plans to secure 930-900
Microsoft is the mid-term target, aiming for 500
$MU $MSFT

Don’t buy Samsung!
1. Although this partnership news seems like a positive, Samsung still makes over 60% of its profit from memory, and memory is being hammered. Micron is down 10% in a day, and foreign capital in South Korea has fled $65 billion in two months. A long-term foundry order that Anthropic might have is unable to withstand the immediate downward trend in memory.
2. Anthropic’s deal is still under discussion, and OpenAI also talked with Samsung—until it fell through. Using an uncontracted long-term story to hedge against the profit decline that’s happening now is far too thin on logic.

These are the main factors behind today’s rise
Rate-hike expectations have been delayed
$BTC

Big pie, Ethereum, and gold have all reached my stage take-profit target position
All positions have been closed
Now I'm short-term selling short at $MU
In the medium term I'm going long on Microsoft $MSFT
【Personal opinion only, not investment advice】

What’s interesting is the expected
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data this round.
I prepared 4 days early
and successfully predicted the direction of this market move.

In my view, there’s nothing really impressive about it.
It’s just simple fundamental analysis.
If you spend a little time on it,
you can also predict this trend.
$BTC $ETH $XAU

There is 1 hour left until the Non-Farm Payroll data release tonight
Remember to set your stop loss and take profit
$BTC $ETH

July 02 Crypto Recap:
For the short term, long positions are the main focus; the fundamentals are favorable for the near-term market
After yesterday’s Asia-session BTC price dipped below 58K and then rebounded, the market extended upward at night following remarks from the Fed Chair Waller, breaking above 61K. Today, during the day, prices held above 60K and ETH above 1600, and we are waiting for tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data release.

Fundamentals:
Before last night, the market news flow was mostly bearish: institutions cut their 12-month target price, ETF flows continued to show net outflows, and due to inflation concerns, September rate-hike expectations were as high as 80%, casting a bearish shadow over the market. However, Waller’s remarks last night suggested that inflation has been easing. Market expectations for tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls employment outlook fell, US stocks began adjusting from high levels, and the crypto market gradually started to shift toward the bullish side.
In my sharing last night, I mentioned that Waller’s comments lacked supporting data. If tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data and next week’s CPI data support Waller’s remarks, then expectations for September rate hikes would likely be reduced—which is favorable for both the crypto market and the gold market.
For today, first we focus on tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls: prior value was 170K, forecast is 110K. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. If the figure comes in higher than 110K, it is bullish for the dollar and bearish for crypto and gold. If it is lower than or equal to 110K, it is bullish for crypto and gold.

Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, the Asia session swept the new lows to obtain liquidity, then rebounded sharply, breaking above 61,300 and pulling back. On the larger timeframe, this rebound still looks like a repair within a broader downtrend. The 61.3K area is the first resistance zone. Above that, we need to watch the key resistance around 62.3K–63K; only after holding above this level can we see continuation toward 65K–66K.
On the smaller timeframe, the break above 60K formed a minor-level structure reversal. Above 59.8K, the price action is a healthy pullback in continuation of the rebound. If price continues to break below 59.5K, then attention shifts to extreme-liquidity support near 58.5K.
ETH is同步 with a healthy pullback above 1588; buy-the-dip near 1600. If it breaks below 1575, then look for liquidity support in the 1520–1550 range.

【The above is only my personal viewpoint and record, and does not constitute any investment advice】
$BTC $ETH $XAU

Tonight, Wash spoke at the Global Central Bank Policy Forum with a very optimistic tone.
Tonight, ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll data release, positive signals were released early.
This catalyst came earlier and stronger than I expected.
It helped my long positions achieve comprehensive profits.

Let me briefly summarize the core points Wash made:
1. Inflation risks have already declined—not because of a recession-driven decline in inflation, but because the expansion on the supply side has pulled inflation down. This is benign and structural disinflation. It has loosened rate-hike expectations.
2. Wash personally hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet. This is not what the market or the government wants—it’s a very important stance issue.

He wants to shrink the balance sheet, but is constrained by politics. At the same time, he also said the Fed’s balance sheet has reached the boundary of fiscal policy—meaning the balance sheet scale is already at a critical point. If it expands further, it would no longer be monetary policy; it would be a form of indirect fiscal financing. He hopes to rein it in somewhat.

Overall, the signal Wash released tonight is still quite “dovish.” This will cool expectations for rate hikes this year.
But this is only what he said out loud.

The key point is still tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll data and next week’s CPI data.
If the data can support what Wash said tonight and rate-hike expectations are reduced, that would be very important for boosting today’s weak crypto and gold markets.

Conversely, if Non-Farm Payrolls are strong and next week’s CPI inflation does not show any所谓 decline, then the market will simply forget what Wash said tonight.
【The above are personal views only and do not constitute any investment advice】

Basic fundamentals analysis expectations for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls
The results were delivered earlier tonight by remarks from the Fed’s Waller
And it turned out to be even more dovish!
$BTC $XAU $MU

Mid-trade review:
Yesterday I shared some logic and reminders for opening positions.
In BTC and ETH, the long positions have been oscillating back and forth; the low-level battles are still ongoing.
BTC is now under pressure below the 60K level, but the “sweeping” of liquidity at lower lows and the logic behind buy-side resistance still remain—though it’s only in the act of countering the shorts.
At present, this consolidation suggests that the continuation of the shorts versus the buyers needs a new fundamental catalyst.
And the recent catalyst is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
This is reference data for rate-hike expectations and the most direct factor affecting market movements.
I lean toward NFP coming in below expectations, causing the USD to pull back—then pulling down US stocks and triggering a rebound in gold.
At the same time, it indirectly pushes BTC and ETH higher.
But it’s only a rebound; after the bounce, continuing to short remains the main idea and the trend.

What I shared last night:
$MU Opened a short position near the US stock Micron 1150 average price; currently down about 5%.
$XAU Opened a long position near the gold 4000 average price; currently slightly in profit (Asia session down, Europe session up—turns out it really is mature assets).
$BTC The opened long positions in BTC and ETH are still in place, oscillating back and forth (not decisive also reflects the market’s hesitation).

For now, continue to take an early setup for tomorrow’s NFP scenario: hold low-level BTC and ETH long positions (with ETH stronger than BTC). The long targets and short entry zones are around 61,800–62,300.
Gold long targets are around 4,140 and 4,180, and the reference short zone is around 4,170–4,200.

Leave the rest to time!

My little lighthouse defines me as a contrarian trader, haha.
It’s because I challenged what she believed—that the current market analysts are all unanimously bullish on MU.
And I want to do $MU : a short-term play on the Nasdaq for a potential correction triggered by the listing of Hynix, following the impact of the event.
Trend positions are for the long term.
Speculative positions are flexible.
I’m just more inclined to lay in positions based on expectations of the market’s direction—meaning “left-side trading.”
The difference between left-side trading and right-side trading.
If you’re interested, you can go find out more details.

Before and after SK hynix’s listing on Nasdaq, it will provide Micron $MU with a good opportunity to board
After all, when SK hynix listed on Nasdaq, it undermined Micron’s uniqueness in the US-listed AI memory market
So, some of the premium in Micron’s earlier pricing may be diluted and adjusted
Meanwhile, in the nonfarm payrolls expectations for Thursday, the market isn’t optimistic about two consecutive bursts
If nonfarm comes in below expectations, with the dollar pulling back and US stocks adjusting, the logic line is still there
At this point, you need to get on board by building positions in leading, strong stocks
$MU $GLW

I went long $XAU $BTC $ETH
I went short #MU
There are still chances to go long #GLW (Kangning)
All of them are at roughly the same prices shown in the picture