Ade_Krypt

$BTC is still struggling around the $77.75k resistance zone.

At the moment, it’s limiting upside momentum, but what stands out is that sellers still haven’t managed to force a real pullback.

Price has been consolidating just below resistance for hours now.

Usually, when price keeps pressing under a resistance level without a strong rejection, it suggests momentum is building for a potential breakout.

If $BTC gets a clean move above $77.75k, there’s a good chance price accelerates into the liquidity sitting higher up.

For now, resistance remains intact, but with this kind of compression, it’s not a level I’d confidently short against.

#GoogleLaunchesGemini3.5Flash #Trump'sIranAttackDelayed

$BTC

People are calling the bottom far too early once again.

We’re only 212 days into this bear market, not even close to the average cycle duration, yet sentiment is already turning bullish.

Every cycle follows a similar pattern. A relief rally appears, optimism returns, and suddenly many start believing the bottom is already in.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
But several key signs of a real bottom are still missing, repeated liquidity sweeps, a confirmed higher timeframe market structure shift on the weekly chart, and full capitulation across the market.

Of course, cycles evolve and historical patterns aren’t guaranteed to repeat perfectly.

Still, claiming the bottom formed after only four months would mean this cycle ended nearly three times faster than previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Personally, I still believe lower prices are likely and that the true bottom has not formed yet.

My outlook only changes if Bitcoin breaks above the $97k level and invalidates the current bearish higher timeframe structure.
#BlackRockPlansMoneyMarketFundsforStablecoinUsers #CLARITYActHearingSetforMay14

$BTC Monthly Outlook

Bitcoin is testing the lower Bollinger Band on the monthly chart for the first time since the 2022 bear market low, a setup that has historically preceded strong upside moves.

After reaching a peak near $109K in late 2025, price failed to hold above the Bollinger Band midline at $88,781 and has gradually declined toward the lower band, currently around $53,361.

What stands out most is the Bollinger Band width. Following a prolonged expansion throughout 2024 and 2025, the bands are now beginning to contract. This type of monthly squeeze often signals that a significant move is approaching.

The $88,781 SMA continues to act as major resistance, while the $80K region remains the first key hurdle for any sustained recovery.

The monthly RSI is sitting at 40.96, moving closer to oversold conditions. The last time RSI reached similar levels was during the 2022 cycle bottom. While history doesn't guarantee the same outcome, it's a notable comparison.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has remained negative for several months but is starting to compress, an early indication that bearish momentum may be fading on the higher timeframe.

Overall, the outlook remains cautiously bullish. A monthly close above $65K would strengthen the recovery narrative and reclaim key market structure. However, a close below $53K would invalidate the bullish thesis and increase the probability of a deeper decline toward the $40K region.

#OilPriceFalls #CircleRemovedFromRussellGrowthIndexes

$BTC Update

The market has played out as expected, with Bitcoin dropping below $59K. I stayed quiet throughout this move because I'd rather stick to my analysis than overreact to every short-term fluctuation.

The next major area to watch is the $54K–$49K support zone. It's the strongest nearby support, and if that level fails to hold, a move toward $30K could come back into the discussion.

As for why the crypto market has fallen this far, a big reason is that many altcoins were built on hype rather than real value. How many projects can honestly say they have a working product and meaningful adoption? Countless memecoins reached market capitalizations 10–20 times larger than established Nasdaq companies while producing little or no real utility. That wasn't sustainable.

At the same time, crypto exchanges now offer access to assets like Nasdaq stocks, gold, and other traditional markets. As those markets rallied, capital naturally rotated away from crypto.

I've been in this space since 2016, and I've never seen crypto feel this overlooked. A recovery is possible, but predicting when it begins is extremely difficult. For now, the best approach is to respect the key support levels and wait for the market to prove its strength. It's hard to turn bullish until major resistance levels are reclaimed.

Long term, I still believe crypto has the potential to become a widely used payment system. But that future likely remains years away, and when it arrives, it will probably be led by Bitcoin and only a small number of fundamentally strong altcoins.

#OilPriceFalls #KoreanWonWeakestSince2009

$BTC long-term cycle structure is unlikely to follow the diminishing returns model forever.

When you compare the shrinking gains above each previous all-time high with the progressively shallower bear market drawdowns, it's clear that extending those trends indefinitely leads to unrealistic outcomes.

If the pattern never changed, $BTC would eventually become an asset with minimal volatility despite growing global adoption, continuous monetary expansion, and a strictly limited supply. That doesn't seem consistent with how markets evolve.

My view is that the first major shift will come through higher bear market lows than historical models currently project. Once that happens, the diminishing returns framework begins to lose its predictive power, potentially opening the door to stronger upside than many expect.

Following the historical trajectory mechanically would imply something like:

- This cycle: ~$38K bottom
- Next cycle: ~$46K bottom
- Then: ~$55K bottom
- Then: ~$65K bottom

That path suggests increasingly smaller drawdowns and weaker upside every cycle, eventually leaving Bitcoin with very little price movement. I don't believe that's the most likely outcome.

A more realistic scenario is that Bitcoin transitions into a different market structure, where corrections remain meaningful
perhaps around 60% initially, then closer to 40–50% over time,but recoveries become faster and long-term appreciation remains stronger than diminishing cycle models predict.

If that happens, identifying the exact cycle bottom will become increasingly difficult because the market will stop behaving according to the historical patterns that everyone expects.

That's why I believe significant macro pullbacks remain attractive opportunities to accumulate, rather than trying to perfectly time the absolute bottom. Waiting for the "perfect" entry often means missing it altogether.

#SamsungSKHynixSharesRiseYTD #DowHitsRecordClose

$BTC rebounded 0.6% to around $59,800, but derivatives data paints a mixed picture.

Over the past 24 hours, roughly $200 million in positions were liquidated, with long traders taking the biggest hit. In the last four hours, however, the trend reversed as about $20 million was liquidated, including $13 million in short positions, showing the move toward $60K briefly caught bears off guard.

Bitcoin's open interest has slipped back to levels seen earlier this month, wiping out Friday's modest rise to 775,000 BTC. One encouraging sign is volatility, with BVIV falling 5% to 47%, ending a two-week climb.

Even so, the options market remains cautious. Put options at the $60K strike now hold nearly $1 billion in notional open interest, almost matching the $1.11 billion in call options at the $80K strike, highlighting a market still divided on Bitcoin's next move.
#SamsungSKHynixSharesRiseYTD #DowHitsRecordClose

$BTC Weekly Update

Bitcoin has finally closed below both the February low and the 200-week SMA, a development that deserves attention.

However, the breakdown doesn't look convincing. It feels similar to the October topping pattern, only in reverse.

Earlier in 2025, price formed an initial high (A), followed by a failed breakout attempt (B), and then finally closed above resistance (C). Even then, it failed to reclaim point B decisively, making the breakout weak. We all know how that ended.

Now we're seeing the opposite. Price established an initial low (A), failed to break below it on the next attempt (B), and has now closed beneath it (C). Yet, it still hasn't broken below point B with conviction, leaving the bearish case less convincing than it appears.

Yes, this is a warning sign, but it feels more like a cautious signal than a decisive breakdown. It could be a bear trap designed to shake out bulls, or it may simply reflect sellers losing momentum as strong demand continues to absorb the selling pressure.

#PBOCSetsOvernightLiquidityRateBelowForecasts #ChinaBlacklists40MoreJapanEntities

$BTC remains under significant technical pressure, with price still trading well below the EMA 100. The bearish structure outlined on June 9 continues to play out.

When that analysis was published, Bitcoin was trading around $62K. It's now at $60,339, having lost the $69K level that previously acted as key support, while the EMA 100 has climbed further to $80,650.

The rejection near $84K in May confirmed that the descending trendline remains intact, keeping the broader trend bearish.

Current price action suggests another move lower, with the $53,500 region standing out as the next major support. This level has been significant since the 2024 accumulation phase and represents the strongest support before $47K.

The outlook remains unchanged. A weekly close back above $69K would begin to improve the technical picture. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, and the bearish structure remains in control.

#TradebStocks #KioxiaADRFallsOver14%

Bitcoin ETFs recorded another 7,440 $BTC in net outflows, with BlackRock appearing to account for most of the selling.

What's notable is that the pace of selling picked up throughout last week. If this is part of a broader strategy, there's no clear reason to expect it to stop immediately.

Despite that, $BTC price continues to hold firm instead of breaking lower.
That's the key signal to watch.

On the lower timeframes, momentum is gradually improving, and a bullish moving average crossover is getting closer.

It doesn't necessarily point to an immediate breakout, but it could mean the current range persists a bit longer.

At the moment, the market appears to be coiling for a significant move.
If I had to choose a direction, I'd still favor a short squeeze.

#TradebStocks #KioxiaADRFallsOver14%

$BTC – FOMC Reversal Update

The FOMC reversal played out largely as expected. ✅

Our short from 67k worked well, with price topping out just before the meeting—consistent with the typical pattern. From the peak, Bitcoin has dropped about 13%, which remains within the expected range while the daily chart continues to trade sideways.

Current outlook:

Macro: I still expect the cycle bottom to form around 60k, not 50k.

Daily: Range-bound until a confirmed breakout.

Hourly: Local range remains intact until price breaks out.

Looking back, I'm pleased with how the trade unfolded. We shorted from 67k down to 62.6k, then flipped long at 62.6k, catching the move to 65.5k.

Missing the 66k target by a small margin was frustrating, and I also started building long positions a bit early at 61.8k, where the bounce was only around 2–3%.

The lingering effects of the FOMC reversal around 60k have slowed the recovery toward 66k, but that's simply part of trading.

The strategy hasn't changed. We're still positioned for the long setup, and I don't trade multiple opposing scenarios at once. I follow one plan until the market proves it's wrong,and so far, it hasn't.

Now we let the market decide the next move.

#AppleFalls6.1% #KoreaActivatesSidecarAsKOSPI200FuturesFall5%

$BTC swept the $59K low and saw a relief bounce afterward.

All short positions have been closed in profit, though I missed the long opportunity as I was offline at the time.

What stands out to me is that CVD still reflects stronger selling pressure than buying pressure during these relief rallies. Combined with the lack of significant volume, I'm not convinced this bounce is sustainable.

Funding rates have turned negative across most exchanges, confirming that short positioning remains dominant. While negative funding doesn't necessarily signal a reversal, it does increase the likelihood of a short squeeze, so risk management remains key.

For short entries, we're currently testing the first point of interest around $62K–$62.8K, where large liquidation clusters are sitting. This represents the more aggressive setup.

There is another significant liquidity zone between $63K and $64K+. If a larger squeeze develops, that's the area I'll be watching for a potential short entry, provided my trigger conditions are met.

My downside target remains below $60.6K, with the possibility of printing new lows.

As for longs, I believe the opportunity is less attractive here. I'd prefer either a lower entry price or confirmation of bullish continuation before considering long exposure.

#TaikoSaysL2IncidentNoUserFundLoss #MemeCoreMTokenCrashes80%

Bitcoin operates on two different timelines.

On the 400-day scale, $BTC moves through cycles of expansion and correction.

On the roughly 4-year scale, those short-term fluctuations fade, revealing the broader adoption trend driving long-term growth.

The 400-day average highlights Bitcoin’s market cycles, while the 4-year trend reflects its underlying adoption structure.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to move above and below this long-term foundation before eventually gravitating back toward it.

Current price: $62.7K
4.1-year adoption trend: $76.4K (+22%)
Power-law trend: $134K (+114%)

With an R² of 0.9957, the long-term structure remains remarkably consistent.

In the short term, cycles drive price action.
In the long term, adoption remains the dominant force.

Bitcoin isn't broken, it’s simply trading below its long-term adoption curve.

#CongressBarsFedCBDCIssuance #DeXeJumps70%In24h

$BTC swept the 65K liquidity zone and moved lower.

The short setup from yesterday’s Bitcoin analysis played out exactly as expected. Congrats to everyone who caught the move.

The plan was to monitor price action around the 65K–66K area. I entered short near 65.1K after getting confirmation and have already secured 60% of the profits.

As for new positions, price is currently trading around the middle of the range, so I'm staying patient and waiting for stronger points of interest before entering again.

My overall outlook remains bearish, and I’m still holding a comfortable short position. I’d consider adding more if price sweeps the 64.3K liquidity area and rejects the 65.6K previous day high (PDH).

For longs, my preferred scenario would be a move back toward the 60K–60.5K lows. Any long trade here would be treated as a relief bounce within the broader downtrend, as I still believe fresh lows are possible.

Good luck with your trading today, everyone.

#MicronHitsRecordHigh #BinanceMarginToListXLMTradingPairs

$BTC continues to behave exactly as you'd expect in a range, bound market.
Buyers keep stepping in around $63,500, while sellers remain active near $64,400, keeping price trapped between the two levels.

Yesterday's attempt to break above local resistance failed to hold. Bulls pushed price higher, but sellers quickly regained control and forced Bitcoin back into the range.
That's why there's still no clear directional bias.

What's notable, however, is the strong buying interest every time Bitcoin tests $63,500. As long as that support remains intact, another move toward the upper end of the range looks increasingly likely.
The key level above remains $67,241, where Bitcoin last encountered significant resistance.

For now, $BTC
is trading near $64,100. Support is holding. Resistance is holding. The market is coiling, and eventually one side will give way.

#SpaceXPremarketFalls4.6% #IranCutsCrudePrices

$BTC is starting the week with a move higher, and as mentioned yesterday, it still looks like Bitcoin wants to squeeze shorts before any meaningful pullback.

I'm watching two key areas for potential short entries:

• $65K–$66K: Interested in adding shorts here if my setup confirms. • $68K–$69K: A major liquidity cluster I've been highlighting for weeks. Liquidity acts like a magnet, and there's plenty of incentive for market makers to push price into the $68K–$70K zone.

At current levels, we're trading in the middle of the range, which isn't an ideal area for high-conviction longs. Scalp longs can still work if you have a proven system.

For swing longs, I'm more interested near the $60.5K range lows, though that's not relevant right now and there's no guarantee we revisit those levels.

Funding rates have turned strongly positive across most exchanges, and with several major developments over the weekend, I'm paying close attention to the NY open today. Volatility could pick up quickly.

#SpaceXPremarketFalls4.6% #IranCutsCrudePrices

$BTC Update 📉
As anticipated, Bitcoin sold off following the pre-FOMC rally.

The long setup from yesterday played out well, and today's price action could present a compelling short opportunity.

With price breaking below the previous daily low, I'm treating the 66.5K high as my invalidation level for any short positions.

The recent sell-off also left behind a daily imbalance around 65.3K. If price retraces to fill that area and confirms my setup, I'll be looking for short entries.

For this week, my primary downside target sits at the 62.3K IRL, where I plan to take profits on roughly 75% of the position.

That said, the bullish case remains valid as long as the 64K support continues to hold. If I had taken the long on the liquidity sweep below 64K, my near term target would be the 65.3K imbalance.

Overall, Bitcoin is providing strong volatility and plenty of opportunities on both sides of the market. The key is staying patient and reacting to confirmed price action rather than predicting it.

#XLMJumps10% #FedHawkishDotPlotFlattensYieldCurve

$BTC Market Outlook

My current market thesis remains unchanged.

As mentioned in my earlier posts, price appears to be front-running the quantitative easing narrative, and the timing around June 16–17 has played out as anticipated.

Looking ahead, the chart shows that most of the upside liquidity has already been taken. Meanwhile, downside liquidity has continued to build, making it a likely target for price action in the coming weeks.

Based on this, I expect Bitcoin to begin a move lower, with the $61K–$62K range being the first major target. For traders currently holding short positions, this area could serve as a reasonable zone to take partial profits.

Personally, I am targeting lower levels, specifically the low-$50K region, where I plan to fully take profits and begin accumulating long positions more aggressively.

The Bank of Japan rate hike scenario also unfolded largely as expected, reinforcing my bearish outlook in the near term. As a result, I believe a 20–25% correction from the recent lower high remains a realistic possibility.

The rejection from the $67.3K level has been encouraging so far. If bearish momentum continues, a move toward $61K–$62K seems likely, followed by a potential relief bounce before a deeper decline toward the low-$50Ks.

My ideal bottoming range remains between $49K and $55K. That is where I intend to rotate from taking profits on shorts to building long-term positions for the next major bullish phase.

For now, I am sticking to the plan:
Lower before higher. The final shakeout before the next bull run. 🚀📉

#FedHawkishDotPlotFlattensYieldCurve #SaudiSupertankersBeginCrossingStraitOfHormuz

$BTC
We're beginning to see a familiar pattern emerge, one that closely resembles the spot and perpetual futures volume imbalance observed before Bitcoin's move to $83K.

That rally ultimately ended with a sharp 30% pullback to local lows.

Currently, spot market activity remains near cycle lows, while perpetual futures volume continues to drive price action. This suggests that leverage fueled buying is playing a much larger role than genuine spot demand and accumulation.

Unless spot volume starts to strengthen and support the move, the rally may remain on shaky ground. If this imbalance persists, the risk of a correction similar to the previous one becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.

#WarshFirstFOMCRatesHold #UNISurges20%

$BTC is moving into some key areas of interest for potential long setups.

It has already swept the 65.3K previous daily low, and I’d like to see a deeper move into lower support levels. From a short perspective, the ideal entry was the first touch of the higher-timeframe sell zone, and I’m not currently seeing any fresh short opportunities.

For longs, I’m watching the 64.7K daily imbalance closely. This buy zone remains valid as long as price stays above 63.7K. A breakdown below 63.7K could open the door for a larger move toward 60K, making it a critical level for bulls to defend.

My preferred long setup is a trigger-based entry if price reaches the 64.7K buy zone. On the short side, I’d like to see liquidity taken above the 67.3K highs, with potential shorts around the 67.5K–68.5K region once a valid trigger appears.

While intraday scalp longs toward those highs remain possible, my system currently suggests the probability of reaching them today is relatively low.

With the FOMC announcement scheduled for today, market volatility could increase significantly, so it will be interesting to see how price reacts around these key levels.

#UNISurges20% #WarshHiresConservativeAdvisersAmidFedOverhaul

$BTCST is currently trading within a high-timeframe (HTF) sell zone after yesterday’s strong rally. Unfortunately, the move happened during the Asian session, making it difficult to catch an ideal entry.

Price has already reacted to the sell zone, showing initial signs of resistance with three consecutive bearish 4-hour candles.

For today, the preferred scenario would be another push higher into the sell zone to sweep short liquidity and trigger liquidations before a larger move lower.

The best intraday long opportunity has likely passed, though lower and mid-timeframe order flow could still provide attractive scalp setups. Upside targets remain around $68K.

The daily imbalance and the 50% level of the previous 4-hour candle body near $64.8K remain a key area of interest for potential long entries.

Liquidity below $63.6K continues to stand out as a likely target, but a stronger move higher first would create a more favorable short setup. If the market starts dropping from current levels, continuation trades can still be managed using the 1-hour to 4-hour timeframes.

The coming sessions should be very interesting for Bitcoin traders.

#EthereumRebounds22%FromJuneLow #USStockRallyPausesBeforeWarshFed