比特羊btc

I monitored the funding rates (Funding Rate) of major exchanges. After three days of consolidation and washouts, the rates have returned to a neutral range from the overheated levels seen during the New Year period. What does this mean? The logic is simple: the bubble of long-side leverage has been deflated. When prices remain relatively high but funding rates are declining, it indicates that spot market support has replaced the push from derivatives. This "spot-driven" consolidation is often a precursor to the next explosive rally. Don't get shaken off by temporary pullbacks—position structure matters more than candlestick colors

$BTC

2026 New Year's Opening Red, new strategy, made 10% profit in just a few days of January

#量化 #策略

Buy Binance Life
Achievement is being stuck in life!

Vitalik claims that Ethereum has just solved the biggest problem of blockchain

After ten years of effort, Ethereum has finally solved the blockchain trilemma.

Vitalik announced that ZK-EVM has reached production-level performance (proof time reduced to a few seconds, costs reduced by 45 times) + PeerDAS is now live on the mainnet = decentralization + consensus + ultra-large bandwidth, all three are achieved.

Future roadmap:

2026: Significantly increase gas limits + first batch of ZK-EVM nodes
2026-2028: Repricing and state adjustments for secure scaling
2027-2030: Zero-knowledge proof validators become the primary validation method, significantly increasing throughput

The security goal is to achieve 128-bit provability by the end of 2026.

Ethereum is not chasing trends, but is building a resilient, trustless world computer.

#ETH

The prediction market might be the most underestimated information system right now. In the past, to understand the macro situation, I had to browse news, read analyses, and filter out human noise myself, which was quite exhausting. It's different now. Before checking the news, I first take a look at Polymarket. I see where the money is being invested. Those who dare to wager 1 million US dollars are definitely thinking deeper than the average person. This is a consensus formed by real money, filtering out at least half of the noise. It's quite good to use it as an emotional thermometer. Polymarket may not always be accurate, but it's definitely credible. #加密市场观察

I see many people are getting into stocks or futures.

Because there are no markets in the cryptocurrency space anymore.

This question needs to be asked first: will the cryptocurrency space disappear?

I don't think so, after all, it has become the best tool for the Federal Reserve and Wall Street to harvest globally.

Being a harvesting tool, it is definitely much more convenient than stocks.

So since it won't disappear, there will definitely be markets.

The more everyone thinks it's over, the more it should be a time to set up.

So I think now is a good time.

Moreover, regardless of what one is playing, the important thing is to have income.

If there is no income, relying solely on trading will definitely lead to distortion and anxiety.

Anyway, I think the times when people are not optimistic are actually the best times to buy in, rather than to exit quickly.

Otherwise, wherever you go, you will lose money, just like a kitten fishing, in the end, you get nothing.

There will still be markets.

#加密市场观察

🚨
Breaking
The whale from the Satoshi Nakamoto era has purchased 5,630 bitcoins worth $500 million today.

Every market drop this year has been predicted correctly by the same person, and each time they have gone all in.

Merry Christmas. Although the holiday atmosphere is strong, the key word for today in trading is "vacuum."

Due to Western institutions and market makers collectively on holiday, CME and US stocks are closed, and the market has entered a phase of extreme liquidity shortage.

The logic is simple: in an order book as thin as a cicada's wing, a few hundred BTC in sell orders can create a large pit, and a few thousand ETH in buy orders can pull up a long green candle. Such fluctuations lack "sustainability" and are mostly a game between bots and retail investors.

I suggest everyone put down the market and spend more time with family. Today, without incremental funds entering the market, preserving the principal is more important than anything else.

#BTC

I finally finished translating the tens of thousands of words analysis by @MessariCrypto on the 2026 track and organized some notes (typed by hand)

First part: Basic situation
> Cryptocurrency - BTC, ZEC
BTC is decoupling from altcoins and becoming a macro asset
> DeFi Bank - Peak Money, Base App
Web3 Apps replace traditional banks
> Yield-bearing assets - USDai, syrupUSDC, sUSDe
Yield stablecoins replace traditional stablecoins with 0 yield

Second part: Productivity infrastructure
> Decentralized AI - Bittensor, Hyperliquid, EigenAI
Agents become the main force in on-chain trading.
> DePIN - Helium Mobile, Daylight, Hivemapper
Tokenization of physical assets, annual revenue expected to exceed 100 million USD.
> InfraFi - http://USD.AI, DayFi
Hardware financing

Third part: Applications and distribution
> Prediction markets - Polymarket, Kalshi, Allora
Prediction = service, agents achieve 24/7 liquidity.
> SocialFi - Zora, Farcaster, http://Pump.fun
Content is assets.
> RWA - Courtyard, Baxus, http://Rip.fun
Includes cards, wine, luxury goods

2026 Insights:
1. Entry > Protocol: Wallets (like Phantom or Coinbase Wallet) will earn more fees than public chains.
2. Real revenue: In 2026, we will not discuss TVL, but focus more on On-chain Revenue.
3. Computing power finance: Solving the sustainability issues of DeFi.

#加密市场观察

Isn't the harsh lesson of 50 million US dollars being lost to a phishing transfer worth reflecting on and improving?

Using .btc domain resolution can perfectly solve the problem of malicious address attacks!

Currently, both TP Wallet and Unisat Wallet already support resolution.

BtcName(.btc): The usage on Bitcoin has reached 2 million registrations and 141,000 holders.

One of the important leaders of Binance Wallet responded to this issue

#币安钱包

According to the current monthly return rate, the P/E ratio, and the capital flow data from the exchange:

1. Trend aspect: The bear market has confirmed a continuous decline in Q4 2025 (especially the sharp drop of 17.67% in November), breaking the bull market logic, and its shape is highly consistent with the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Statistically, this is a clear signal of the continuation of the downward trend.

2. Valuation aspect: Entering the undervalued zone, the P/E ratio has fallen to 0.83 (<1.0), indicating that the bubble has been squeezed out and assets have entered the 'undervalued range.' However, it should be noted that this value has not yet reached the historical extreme bottom of 0.5 (miner surrender line), which means there is theoretically still room for further decline.

3. Capital aspect: The existing game shows a general net outflow of funds from the exchange, with only the leading platforms maintaining their positions, and the market is in a risk-averse contraction period.

#比特币流动性 #加密市场观察

This Friday, there are 260,000 BTC options contracts for delivery, a massive scale, be careful.

I plan not to trade for two weeks after the delivery, waiting for the market to find its own direction.

$BTC

Don't blame yourself anymore; losing money is really not your fault.

I just pulled a set of real data from Binance (data source: Coinglass), and it's chilling to see:

Among the hundreds of tokens analyzed, a shocking 330 have fallen more than 80% from their peak! Even if we loosen the criteria to a 50% drop, there are still 382 tokens trapped in this situation.

Take a look at the current market cap distribution: 10-10 million: 18; 10 million-30 million: 115; 30 million-50 million: 61; even among the large tokens with a market cap over 100 million, 140 are struggling.

What does this mean? It means that if you rush in during FOMO, your chance of hitting a “zero-out pit” is close to 90%.

In this hellishly difficult market, just surviving is a stroke of luck. This is not trading; this is a battle royale.

The worst-performing asset in 2025 is cryptocurrency.
This is not the first time BTC has been humiliated in its history.
It's just that right now is a winter, and everyone is buying coal instead of sports cars. It doesn't mean that sports cars are worse than coal.

#加密市场观察

The new strategy tested on ETH shows that although the market has not been very good this month, the strategy only had losses for 6 days, and the rest of the time was profitable, performing quite excellently. Let's wait until the end of this month to see the situation.

#量化 #策略

The weekly line has just closed, and BTC is firmly positioned above key support. This closing is stronger than expected.

The early morning rally on Monday usually has a somewhat "trial" nature, and the buying power in the Asian market is returning, but the real directional indicator will depend on tonight's performance of net ETF inflows after the opening of the US stock market.

The logic is simple: as long as the weekly line does not break, any pullback is an opportunity for those who missed out on last week's chips to "buy tickets". Don't try to guess the top when the trend has just started to rise.

$BTC

Believe me, a relatively independent market will come.

Currently, the funds in the cryptocurrency circle are divided into two parts: one part is on-site funds, and the other part is traditional funds. The characteristic of this cycle is that traditional funds have entered the market at a scale far exceeding that of the previous cycle, subsequently forming a correlation.

On-site funds have been continuously harvested in this process, until now...

As the harvestable space for on-site funds becomes smaller and smaller, off-site funds are starting to leave in a planned manner, to move to the next market with larger profit space...

If we talk about a landmark event, I think it is the issuance of the Trump coin. Before this, off-site funds were in an inflow state, and after this, the inflow of off-site funds gradually decreased...

However, if the cryptocurrency circle relies solely on on-site funds to gamble, it would be very difficult to reach the scale we see today. So everyone is both the object of harvesting and the beneficiary as a result.

If BTC continues to rise with the US stock market, maintaining a long-term stable high correlation, I ask you, would you still trade cryptocurrencies?

When it follows the decline but not the rise, and follows the rise but not the decline, that is when excess profits are generated.

$BTC

Ethereum ships at 8 PM every night (7 AM North America)

$ETH