财富鹅
Occasional Trader
8 Years
$BTC 数据分析，链上地址持仓数据更新与推送,异常波动预警机器人,TradingView指标。🐧 NFTPUNK
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Peter Brandt: The next Bitcoin bull market peak will be in September 2029, and its growth trajectory is considered 'unprecedented.'
Famous trader Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, recently stated:
“Bitcoin is unprecedented, and there may never be anything like it again. In the past 15 years, it has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale, followed by at least an 80% decline (the current cycle has not ended).”
“Currently delving into the issue of 'when Bitcoin will bottom out,' but predicting that the next bull market peak will occur in September 2029.”
Peter Brandt believes that 'the current cycle has not ended,' mainly based on classic patterns in Bitcoin's history: over the past 15 years, there have been five parabolic advances, each followed by at least an 80% deep decline.
“Bitcoin is unprecedented, and there may never be anything like it again. In the past 15 years, it has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale, followed by at least an 80% decline (the current cycle has not ended).”
“Currently delving into the issue of 'when Bitcoin will bottom out,' but predicting that the next bull market peak will occur in September 2029.”
Peter Brandt believes that 'the current cycle has not ended,' mainly based on classic patterns in Bitcoin's history: over the past 15 years, there have been five parabolic advances, each followed by at least an 80% deep decline.
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Is the decade-long bull market in gold coming to an end? Global assets are hitting new highs, why is Bitcoin lagging?
Recently, I've seen some people compare the historical trends of gold to the cycles of Bitcoin, but the comparisons are quite vague. Therefore, I have re-drawn the interesting correlations from the perspectives of gold and Bitcoin.
Looking at the starting point of this round of gold's rise, corresponding to the starting point of the previous bull market, we find that the last gold bull market lasted from 2001-04-02 to 2011-08-01, which is about 10 years and 4 months. This round has been underway since 2016-01-04 and has passed more than half. If we must align the timeline with history, then the ending time would be around 2026-05-01. Although the market is unpredictable, we can pay attention to what the final result will be.
Looking at the starting point of this round of gold's rise, corresponding to the starting point of the previous bull market, we find that the last gold bull market lasted from 2001-04-02 to 2011-08-01, which is about 10 years and 4 months. This round has been underway since 2016-01-04 and has passed more than half. If we must align the timeline with history, then the ending time would be around 2026-05-01. Although the market is unpredictable, we can pay attention to what the final result will be.
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$XAU
💰"Golden Pit" from Different Traders' Perspectives | Which Type Are You?
After seeing this chart, I truly feel the resonance ✨
Every market fluctuation appears as an opportunity or a trap 🕳️
Depending on your strategy and mindset
👇 See which type you belong to:
▪️ Structural Trader (04)
→ Focus on price patterns and breakout levels
→ Enter only after backtesting confirmation
▪️ Vegas Trader (03)
→ Rely on channels and moving average systems
→ Position during trend pullbacks
▪️ Naked Candlestick Trader (02)
→ Focus solely on raw price action
→ Don't trust indicators, only trust the candlesticks themselves
▪️ Indicator Trader (01)
→ Depend on technical indicator signals
→ Sell immediately when indicators turn bearish
💡 Summary:
No single method is always correct
The key is to find a trading logic that fits your personality and rhythm
Markets are always changing—learning and adapting is the ultimate strategy
⚠️ Friendly Reminder:
This article is for knowledge sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice
Trading involves risks—make decisions with caution!
💰"Golden Pit" from Different Traders' Perspectives | Which Type Are You?
After seeing this chart, I truly feel the resonance ✨
Every market fluctuation appears as an opportunity or a trap 🕳️
Depending on your strategy and mindset
👇 See which type you belong to:
▪️ Structural Trader (04)
→ Focus on price patterns and breakout levels
→ Enter only after backtesting confirmation
▪️ Vegas Trader (03)
→ Rely on channels and moving average systems
→ Position during trend pullbacks
▪️ Naked Candlestick Trader (02)
→ Focus solely on raw price action
→ Don't trust indicators, only trust the candlesticks themselves
▪️ Indicator Trader (01)
→ Depend on technical indicator signals
→ Sell immediately when indicators turn bearish
💡 Summary:
No single method is always correct
The key is to find a trading logic that fits your personality and rhythm
Markets are always changing—learning and adapting is the ultimate strategy
⚠️ Friendly Reminder:
This article is for knowledge sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice
Trading involves risks—make decisions with caution!
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$XRP
The indicator signals lead traditional technical analysis.
The indicator signals lead traditional technical analysis.
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$BTC
📒 Understanding the 'Key Signals' of the Market｜Advanced Analytical Thinking Sharing
Do you often notice recurring 'similar patterns' in market movements?
The market often gives clear reactions at certain positions—this may not be a coincidence, but rather hidden 'key points' at work.
Today, I will share several practical observation ideas to help you filter out market noise and focus on truly important price actions👇
🔹 Support and Resistance Exchange
Once a key position is broken, the original support may turn into resistance, and vice versa. Paying attention to these conversion points can help you anticipate signals of trend continuation or reversal.
🔹 Clearing Liquidity
The market often 'sweeps away' indecisive orders during rapid fluctuations, forming false breakouts or long wicks. Identifying these actions can help you avoid being misled by short-term volatility.
🔹 Backtesting Order Blocks
Prices often return to previously dense transaction areas for confirmation; these pullbacks are often opportunities for re-entry.
✨ Core Logic of Advanced Tools:
By filtering out about 80% of ineffective fluctuations through algorithms, signals are only sent at structural key points, making decisions clearer and avoiding emotional interference.
📌 Remember:
All analyses are merely to enhance cognitive probability, not to predict the future. Combining with your own strategy and maintaining discipline is key for the long term.
📒 Understanding the 'Key Signals' of the Market｜Advanced Analytical Thinking Sharing
Do you often notice recurring 'similar patterns' in market movements?
The market often gives clear reactions at certain positions—this may not be a coincidence, but rather hidden 'key points' at work.
Today, I will share several practical observation ideas to help you filter out market noise and focus on truly important price actions👇
🔹 Support and Resistance Exchange
Once a key position is broken, the original support may turn into resistance, and vice versa. Paying attention to these conversion points can help you anticipate signals of trend continuation or reversal.
🔹 Clearing Liquidity
The market often 'sweeps away' indecisive orders during rapid fluctuations, forming false breakouts or long wicks. Identifying these actions can help you avoid being misled by short-term volatility.
🔹 Backtesting Order Blocks
Prices often return to previously dense transaction areas for confirmation; these pullbacks are often opportunities for re-entry.
✨ Core Logic of Advanced Tools:
By filtering out about 80% of ineffective fluctuations through algorithms, signals are only sent at structural key points, making decisions clearer and avoiding emotional interference.
📌 Remember:
All analyses are merely to enhance cognitive probability, not to predict the future. Combining with your own strategy and maintaining discipline is key for the long term.
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$BTC 💡 Key Points:
A true breakthrough in trading is not about "chasing prices," but rather "waiting for prices to come back to you." By utilizing the principle of "resistance turning into support," taking action after backtesting confirmation can significantly improve win rates and risk-reward ratios.
⚠️ Reminder: All strategies need to be combined with market context and risk management; past patterns do not predict future performance. Make cautious decisions and always respect the market~
A true breakthrough in trading is not about "chasing prices," but rather "waiting for prices to come back to you." By utilizing the principle of "resistance turning into support," taking action after backtesting confirmation can significantly improve win rates and risk-reward ratios.
⚠️ Reminder: All strategies need to be combined with market context and risk management; past patterns do not predict future performance. Make cautious decisions and always respect the market~
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$BTC
The signal is accurate during the day.
Wishing you prosperity, everyone. A reliable tool is a money printer.
The signal is accurate during the day.
Wishing you prosperity, everyone. A reliable tool is a money printer.
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$BTC The signal is very stable. 🙏
Indeed, the market has rallied.
Indeed, the market has rallied.
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$BTC The signal for short selling has appeared. Is it true or false?
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#订单流 Technical analysis structure of a downtrend, commonly used in price action trading analysis. The chart gradually marks several key stages that may occur in a downtrend: starting from the order block, the price rebounds and retests, encountering supply zone pressure, and then creating a new low; subsequently, an external order block may appear, and after failing the retest again, the price continues to drop and forms a new low. This chart intuitively describes the typical rhythm of price pushes and pullbacks in a downtrend, suitable for traders to identify trend phases and potential trading opportunities.
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#K线形态 The head and shoulders pattern is a strong bearish reversal signal. It is not just a pattern of the price curve, but also reflects the complete process of the market's dominant force shifting from buyers to sellers (i.e., distribution). Traders use this pattern to identify the potential end of an uptrend and look for shorting or exit opportunities when the neckline is broken.
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#K线形态 Double tops are a strong technical signal indicating that an upward trend may be ending and a downward trend is about to begin. The core teaching point of this chart is: the completion of the pattern and the triggering of the trading signal, with a valid price break below the neckline being the final confirmation. It emphasizes a disciplined trading approach—waiting for the market to provide clear breakout signals before acting, rather than subjectively guessing that a top has formed.
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Important Reminder (From a Trading Professional Perspective)
Position Determines Nature: The BUY/SELL signals marked in the chart are assumed to appear at the correct end of the trend. For example, a Hammer only serves as a buy signal if it appears after a downtrend; if it appears in an uptrend, its shape may evolve into a Hanging Man, which is a sell warning. Do not use these signals in isolation, detached from the trend position.
Wait for Confirmation: Any single candlestick pattern should not be used as an isolated entry basis. Be sure to wait for the next or several more candlesticks for confirmation (for example, a bullish pattern followed by a bullish close at a higher price, accompanied by increased volume).
Combine with Other Tools: Candlestick patterns should be used in conjunction with trend lines, support/resistance levels, moving averages, volume, and other technical analysis tools to enhance the reliability of judgments.
Position Determines Nature: The BUY/SELL signals marked in the chart are assumed to appear at the correct end of the trend. For example, a Hammer only serves as a buy signal if it appears after a downtrend; if it appears in an uptrend, its shape may evolve into a Hanging Man, which is a sell warning. Do not use these signals in isolation, detached from the trend position.
Wait for Confirmation: Any single candlestick pattern should not be used as an isolated entry basis. Be sure to wait for the next or several more candlesticks for confirmation (for example, a bullish pattern followed by a bullish close at a higher price, accompanied by increased volume).
Combine with Other Tools: Candlestick patterns should be used in conjunction with trend lines, support/resistance levels, moving averages, volume, and other technical analysis tools to enhance the reliability of judgments.
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Demand Zone: Refers to areas on a price chart where there has historically been strong buying interest, which may prevent prices from declining further. When prices pull back to these areas again, traders expect buying to re-enter, potentially creating long opportunities. The image shows two different levels of potential demand zones.
Gap: Refers to price jumps caused by market sentiment or events. The gap itself (i.e., the blank area) often becomes an important support or resistance area in the future, with prices tending to fill the gap.
Chart Example Logic: The chart depicts a typical price action scenario — prices rebound upwards after finding support in "Demand Zone 1", but during the upward movement, a "Gap" is formed, and the upper or lower edge of that gap overlaps with another potential "Demand Zone 2". This demonstrates how traders combine historical demand zones and dynamically key levels formed by gaps to find high-probability trading opportunities.
Gap: Refers to price jumps caused by market sentiment or events. The gap itself (i.e., the blank area) often becomes an important support or resistance area in the future, with prices tending to fill the gap.
Chart Example Logic: The chart depicts a typical price action scenario — prices rebound upwards after finding support in "Demand Zone 1", but during the upward movement, a "Gap" is formed, and the upper or lower edge of that gap overlaps with another potential "Demand Zone 2". This demonstrates how traders combine historical demand zones and dynamically key levels formed by gaps to find high-probability trading opportunities.
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How long will the Bitcoin "garbage time" last? Will the bear market end in October 2026?
"Garbage time" comes from sports terminology, referring to the remaining time in a game when the outcome has already been decided and is insignificant. It has evolved into a Chinese internet slang term that specifically refers to a period when a country's or region's economy and politics are severely deteriorating, individuals feel powerless to change it, and social development goes against the rules, inevitably leading to failure, used to describe economic difficulties and a sense of helplessness about the future.
And here, "garbage time" refers to the repeated fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, where it is neither alive nor dead, and cannot form a strong upward trend due to sudden surprises.
Peter Brandt's prediction
A few days ago, Peter Brandt tweeted that the next bullish peak for Bitcoin will be in September 2029. He believes that starting from the low point at the end of 2022, specifically January 1, 2023, it will reach about $126k around October 2025. The price has already fallen below the parabolic curve, and historically, every decline has been significant, he thinks that a major correction is not yet complete.
And here, "garbage time" refers to the repeated fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, where it is neither alive nor dead, and cannot form a strong upward trend due to sudden surprises.
Peter Brandt's prediction
A few days ago, Peter Brandt tweeted that the next bullish peak for Bitcoin will be in September 2029. He believes that starting from the low point at the end of 2022, specifically January 1, 2023, it will reach about $126k around October 2025. The price has already fallen below the parabolic curve, and historically, every decline has been significant, he thinks that a major correction is not yet complete.
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$ZEC
The combination of divergence and structural breakout: multiple top divergences in the early stage lead to price resistance, forming a narrowing wedge.
In the later stage, bottom divergence + oversold area appears, combined with the upward breakout of the wedge, forming a strong buy signal.
This structural breakout + resonance of multiple bottom divergences is a highly reliable reversal signal in technical analysis, especially in volatile markets.
The combination of divergence and structural breakout: multiple top divergences in the early stage lead to price resistance, forming a narrowing wedge.
In the later stage, bottom divergence + oversold area appears, combined with the upward breakout of the wedge, forming a strong buy signal.
This structural breakout + resonance of multiple bottom divergences is a highly reliable reversal signal in technical analysis, especially in volatile markets.
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Bitcoin: The Last 'Smoke Detector' That Can Still Function Normally, and Its Short-Term Bearish Outlook and Macroeconomic Thoughts
I have long been optimistic about Bitcoin. I just believe that deflation will first trigger a crisis, and the crisis will ultimately lead to 'nuclear printing' as a response.
Luke Gromen is a well-known macroeconomic analyst and founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), recognized for his deep insights into global debt, inflation, and currency depreciation trends. He has long been optimistic about Bitcoin, viewing it as a 'scarce asset' against fiat currency devaluation and a global liquidity 'smoke detector', having accumulated a large amount when Bitcoin's price was below $30,000 during 2022-2023.
Recently (December 2025), Gromen has turned bearish on Bitcoin in the short term and sold most of his holdings at around $95,000 (but did not liquidate entirely). He believes that in the current macro environment, Bitcoin resembles a high-beta tech stock rather than a neutral reserve asset or gold: under the deflationary pressures accelerated by AI and robotics technology, Bitcoin, as an 'equity layer' asset, will face downward pressure first in a globally highly leveraged economic system. Unless 'nuclear printing' (extreme monetary easing) occurs, tightening liquidity will lead to weak performance for Bitcoin, and he expects it might drop to around $40,000 in 2026, planning to buy back at lower prices.
Luke Gromen is a well-known macroeconomic analyst and founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), recognized for his deep insights into global debt, inflation, and currency depreciation trends. He has long been optimistic about Bitcoin, viewing it as a 'scarce asset' against fiat currency devaluation and a global liquidity 'smoke detector', having accumulated a large amount when Bitcoin's price was below $30,000 during 2022-2023.
Recently (December 2025), Gromen has turned bearish on Bitcoin in the short term and sold most of his holdings at around $95,000 (but did not liquidate entirely). He believes that in the current macro environment, Bitcoin resembles a high-beta tech stock rather than a neutral reserve asset or gold: under the deflationary pressures accelerated by AI and robotics technology, Bitcoin, as an 'equity layer' asset, will face downward pressure first in a globally highly leveraged economic system. Unless 'nuclear printing' (extreme monetary easing) occurs, tightening liquidity will lead to weak performance for Bitcoin, and he expects it might drop to around $40,000 in 2026, planning to buy back at lower prices.
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$ZEC is also getting better
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$BTC The value is still rising.
Dear investors: Your scrolling on Twitter is actually useless, it's purely a waste of life. It's nothing but the trivial show-off performances of KOLs and the traps set by advertisements... The more you scroll, the more restless you become, and you definitely won't earn a dime. It's absolutely a loss, a significant loss.
Dear investors: Your scrolling on Twitter is actually useless, it's purely a waste of life. It's nothing but the trivial show-off performances of KOLs and the traps set by advertisements... The more you scroll, the more restless you become, and you definitely won't earn a dime. It's absolutely a loss, a significant loss.
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