币毒

Goodnight, brothers—finally broke through 👬

Didn't stream for nothing, brothers. You didn't watch for nothing either—between a few accounts, that's 6000u total. Next month, we won't have to ask our parents for living expenses.

Lol... The stream liquidated at market price, pulled up a small line. Looks like everyone is waiting for tonight.

Just turned off the exchange app, then went into the room and sat at the dining table with my family to eat breakfast. Finally, my parents, who had been feeling uneasy, quietly asked me: Kid, have you been taking drugs recently? I hesitated for a moment, then gritted my teeth and said: Yes. Only then did my parents finally let out a long breath and, with a smile, said: Good. We were afraid you’d gone long at 87,000 and something. 😭

Institutional inflows have decreased—no wonder so many excellent opportunities these past few days never got pushed through; it turns out the institutions aren’t giving enough support.

🗓️ September 30｜Crypto Daily

The market is entering the “data eve”: BTC holds around 83,000, but across the whole market the past 24 hours are still shrinking. Tonight’s PCE is the single shot that truly decides the direction.

📊 09:00 Market Wrap (Beijing Time)
BTC: $83,420, 24h +0.37%
ETH: $2,670.84, 24h -0.17%
SOL: $118.89, 24h +0.73%

Total market cap is about $2.86 trillion, down 3.07% in 24h. BTC dominance is 58.34%, with trading volume of roughly $117 billion (24h). On the surface, major coins aren’t moving much, but capital is clearly taking a defensive stance. BTC’s relative strength also suggests the market still isn’t truly willing to scale up risk.

The most important things today:

1）ETF flows are still coming in, but the pace has clearly slowed. The latest complete publicly available trading day is September 28, not today. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $31.07 million; ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $17.10 million; SOL ETFs saw net inflows of about $7.70 million. The direction is still positive—just don’t misread “ongoing inflows” as “about to take off immediately.”

2）The Bitget incident involving about $388 million in stolen funds continues to unfold. The attacker swapped roughly 2,390 ETH for 75.2 BTC via THORChain. Bitget says the vulnerability came from a third-party security product; losses are covered by a protection fund, and withdrawals are being restored in phases. The security incident isn’t over yet—on-chain tracking and the risk of platform run are still things to watch.

3）Regulated products keep expanding. Bitwise’s first U.S. spot NEAR ETF began trading on September 29 on NYSE Arca, with a management fee of 0.75%. It also includes staking rewards in the NAV. The market may not buy in immediately, but the “turning alt-asset into an ETF” trend is still moving forward.

4）Regulatory boundaries continue to be clarified. The U.S. SEC’s latest FAQ makes clear that token buybacks, network upgrades, or even promotions on their own do not automatically turn a token into a security. It’s not a full green light, but at least projects now know which actions won’t naturally trip over the line.

Next up, the focus is on:

• Tonight 20:30: U.S. August PCE, core PCE, and the final GDP estimate for Q2. If inflation comes in above expectations, it keeps pressure on rate cuts and risk assets; if below expectations, BTC will have conditions to retest the upper range.
• October 1 at 22:00: U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• October 2 at 20:30: U.S. September non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data. This will continue to reset market expectations for the Fed path.

My take: It’s not weak, but it’s absolutely not “easy mode” either. BTC has been bouncing repeatedly in the 82,000–85,000 USD range. ETF buying provides a floor, while bond yields and macro data are capping the upside. Before tonight’s data is released, the odds of chasing are generally not great. If price breaks higher and holds above 85,000 with volume, then it’s more reasonable to discuss trend continuation. If it breaks below 82,000, first watch around 80,000 for support.

Trading strategy: Keep position size light, wait for confirmation after a breakout, and follow only then. Don’t predict ahead of time or go all-in; place stop-loss before entering the order.

⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Crypto assets are highly volatile. The above is based on market observations only and does not constitute investment advice.

Say what you mean and the laws follow—today’s another day of getting hit and failing. I only shouted for two minutes before I turned around and went back to respond. Pretty lucky.

Also, this thing about the stream ending and the price dropping… that was last year’s rule. I didn’t expect it to still be continuing this year. We’re about to enter October. Take a few days off—when they go to have their meeting, I’ll take you guys in for a ruthless stealth attack from behind.

Trading is not about predicting the market, but about managing risk.
Wishing you all become traders as soon as possible—taking this step is the beginning of making profits.

Many people trade poorly—not because of cognition, but because of a sense of luckiness.

If you run two stores at the same time, one store is consistently profitable while the other is consistently losing, then at this point he knows to close the losing one.

But if you switch it to buying two coins—one keeps rising and the other keeps falling—then at this point he will sell the one that’s rising, and hope that the other that’s falling will bounce back to break even.

Someone with even stronger luckiness will take the money from selling the rising coin and buy the falling one.

MD is a bit scared; I've already seen a lot of shorts turning long.

Crypto terms explained:
Volatility: -30%
Pullback: -50%
Washout: -90%
Liftoff: +1%
Hold long: Sell tomorrow
Diamond hands: Hold for up to 3 days
All-in: All in 10u

This round is the most like Coin Poison’s 18-year-old coin— $ETH

I announce, today is the day of great miracle☀️

Seriously coding and analyzing🧐, nobody asked about it.

But换个说法, the drop this morning made my head a little dizzy; I went for a quick quickie and came to my senses, and then did it automatically.

I added more to $BTC $ETH —one by one, and they just come in with the boxed-in likes.

It’s still the same token—only the market environment has changed.

We need to make it happen at $ZEC . Doing it at this point might feel a bit sluggish, but I respect the market 🫡

As for the external big picture, the crypto world has only gotten hotter these past few years, and more and more people have started to know about it. On the other hand, as the whole industry embraces compliance, this causes what used to be “traditional” $BTC $ETH to lose its appeal to newcomers—the virtual coin doesn’t feel “virtual” anymore.

Another thing is that in the past couple of years, the market has become increasingly sensitive to the problems caused by “on-chain transparency.” Wallet balances, transaction paths, payment records, even AI Agent payments are all public. These directly conflict with real-world financial habits.

Even if you don’t know who the other person is, being watched all the time is still uncomfortable. And with compliance now, plus things like on-chain address transfer linkages, you often end up being unintentionally discovered and connected—tagged—into a chain of associations. This is even worse than traditional Web2 bank cards.

Because at most you can see the other party’s VIP card—you won’t know exactly how much money is in it.

And all of this is something ZEC can do. Its shielded transactions can hide the sender, receiver, amount, and memo. If users use shielded addresses throughout, balances and transaction history won’t be公开 like BTC and ETH.

So whether you’re an old OG or someone who just joined—whether you’re in gray-area activities or simply don’t want to have your life scrutinized—privacy coins are absolutely necessary, and must be used, just like BTC back then as a circulating currency in the darknet.

I’m starting to believe what Zcash co-founder EliBenSasson said about reaching $5,000 by the end of the year. After all, at today’s price, getting to $2,500 is already a pretty decent deal. #zec

After a few orders in this round are completed, this account will need to rest for a while. I’ll keep trading using other accounts. This one will be used to stream and chat about market conditions with everyone. I’ll grind through it for three months and get the rebate bound.

I registered too early back then, and there wasn’t a system to add the binding before. Over the years, at least one A8 has been missing from this account’s rebates. Saving that much is basically free money. And the fees? I stopped caring about them. When you算账 (add it up), it’s genuinely shocking.

Brothers and pals 👬 can also take a look at your own accounts. As long as there’s no binding relationship, and your three-month trading volume is less than 5000 USDT, you can contact me anytime to get the binding added for free.

After multiple rounds of testing, the position 825 now belongs to the underwear of $BTC . If it gets taken off, it will be very difficult for this round to reach a new high again. Even if there is later a rebound, it can only be viewed as a second sell. If this position is lost, the structure will change.

Despite selling early in the morning, $BTC is still in a bullish advantage position. Shorting offers poor cost-effectiveness. $ETH is even more forceful—beyond words. For BTC-initiated broad-market declines, ETH has already made its stance clear: it doesn’t want to fall, but it’s not afraid of falling either. When necessary, it just has to. In response to BTC’s soft and hard tactics, ETH has long given the answer: if it rises, the door is wide open; if it falls, it’ll go along to the end.

After experiencing eight or nine years of ups and downs with ETH and L2, what kind of阵势 haven’t they seen?! In the great process of restoring ETH, there will inevitably be difficult obstacles, even storms and turbulent waves. BTC’s strategy of dragging altcoins down hard is just a hurdle in the altcoin development journey—nothing too big. ETH will remain steadfast, face challenges head-on, turn危机 into opportunity, and fall out a whole new天地.

Also, $BNB currently shows a “technical oversold + large orders buying the dip + trading near the lower Bollinger Band” triple-convergence profile. Among today’s four coins, it offers the highest short-term rebound cost-effectiveness. If BTC shows a signal of stopping the selloff and stabilizing, BNB may start its rebound first. The lower Bollinger Band at $757 is the key support, and the first resistance overhead is around the EMA-7 region at $764.

And there’s $ZEC, which is weak today. The trading volume has surged significantly compared to usual—3 to 4 times the recent average—forming a typical “volume expansion with a selloff” structure. The RSI is deeply oversold. If $1,381 can hold, there may be a technical corrective rebound opportunity. However, considering that large orders are still being distributed and MACD momentum is accelerating downward, the strength and follow-through of any rebound are doubtful. For high-volatility assets, during profit-taking phases, a second dip often occurs. You can wait until trading volume clearly contracts and large-order flow turns positive before reassessing the timing to enter.

This is $HYPE and $ZEC — two major strong-coin market sentiments turning downward 📉