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The relentless rally in XAU/USD has finally hit a wall at the $4,500 psychological barrier. We are seeing a classic "exhaustion" setup as price fails to reclaim the highs, forming a massive Daily Resistance at 4,495.
With the RSI showing a clear bearish divergence on the hourly charts, the momentum has officially flipped. This isn't just a dip; it’s a structural breakdown after the most overextended cycle in decades.
This is 7th rejection at the $94K resistance since November 17 and looking at the kind of over excitement and over confidence we had on over leveraged long positions in the market, it was pretty obvious that a pullback could happen.
Now, first of all, $90.5K was reclaimed after multiple resistance retests, so ideally should hold as a good support once the first retest happens.
For entries go longs $BTC , you can place the limit order in $90K - $89K range , most likely the first retest will result in a successful bounce.
Second long scenario is the reclaim of $94K which if it happens on 4H, gives a decent long opportunity towards $100K or with a decent 1D or 3D close above $94.5K, I’ll definitely target atleast the $108K - $112K resistance.
Don’t really see any solid shorting $BTC opportunity unless we see price losing the $90K support.
*JUST IN: Venezuela to Supply the U.S. with 30–50 MILLION BARRELS of “High‑Quality, Sanc
In a major energy and geopolitical development, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil* to the United States* — described as “high‑quality, sanctioned oil.” 🇻🇪➡️🇺🇸[1]
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📍 What’s Going On? Trump shared the news on social media, saying the oil will be sold at market price and the proceeds managed to benefit both Venezuelan and American interests. This move comes after months of U.S. pressure and evolving negotiations over Venezuelan crude exports, which were previously restricted by sanctions. [1]
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🧠 Why This Is BIG: • 30–50M barrels is a significant volume — roughly equivalent to one to two months of Venezuela’s production before sanctions. [2] • The deal could redirect supply away from traditional buyers (like China) and support U.S. refineries, especially on the Gulf Coast. • It signals a major shift in U.S.–Venezuela energy cooperation, potentially changing regional oil flows and geopolitical alliances.
📊 Analysis: This isn’t just an oil deal — it’s a strategic pivot. Venezuela possesses some of the largest crude reserves in the world, and reopening export routes to the U.S. could: • Provide relief to U.S. refiners needing heavy oil grades • Offer Venezuela a pathway to economic normalization • Boost energy sector investment if long‑term ties develop [4]
However, experts note that sanctions, infrastructure challenges, and political uncertainty still make long‑term output recovery difficult. [5]
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💡 Pro Tips: ✔️ Watch crude oil prices — increased supply expectations can pressure markets 📉 ✔️ Monitor announcements from U.S. energy companies like Chevron — they may play a role in logistics ✔️ Follow diplomatic feedback from China and OPEC — this shift affects global oil geopolitics
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📲 Follow me for real‑time geopolitical and market insights 🔎 Do Your Own Research (DYOR) — don’t trade on headlines alone!
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