小恐龙说趋势

The company holding 848,000 bitcoins spent just $9.50 of every $100 it raised last quarter on buying crypto 🦖

📊 进群看每日策略

Strategy, the crypto-hoarding giant formerly known as MicroStrategy, has its founder Michael Saylor hinting on X on Sunday that there’s still room to add a little more orange—suggesting the company will keep buying bitcoin. But the official SEC filing won’t come until Tuesday at the earliest, since federal agencies are closed on Monday for Columbus Day.

First, let’s look at its latest numbers. From September 28 to October 4, Strategy bought just 334 bitcoins, spending $28.7 million. That brought its holdings to exactly 848,000 bitcoins, according to an 8-K filing submitted on October 5.

During the same period, it repurchased about 1.77 million shares of its own STRC preferred stock, spending $176.3 million—more than six times its weekly bitcoin-buying budget 💰

After reviewing the financial filings on Saturday, independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera noted that Strategy raised $5.41 billion through common stock sales in the third quarter. Yet by quarter-end, it held only 1,666 more bitcoins than it did at the end of June. The filing stated that just 9.5% of the funds raised went directly into bitcoin; the rest went toward dollar reserves, cash, dividends, and preferred stock buybacks.

In other words, the company that once claimed it would buy bitcoin endlessly is turning into one that raises money first and then waits for the right time to buy. For shareholders, the amount of bitcoin backing each share is only half the story. Cash counts, but debt and preferred stock have priority claims over common stock. Talk of adding more orange can fire up sentiment, but the real question is: who ultimately benefits from the money raised this time? 📉

Do you think Strategy really can’t buy more right now, or is it waiting for a cheaper price? Join the conversation in the comments.

Every day, we bring you the latest on bitcoin treasury holdings and institutional money flows—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

#cftc拟将事件合约纳入掉期监管
39 states and 145 tribes join forces to push prediction market case to the doorstep of the U.S. Supreme Court

⚖️ ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

Last week, a batch of amicus briefs was filed with the U.S. Supreme Court, urging the justices to take up a case asking whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps. Then on Friday, the CFTC put forward two proposals to formally bring event contracts under swaps regulation—one of them has already taken effect ⚖️

First, take a look at the heavyweight names behind the briefs: former Senator Chris Dodd; former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler; the NFL; 39 states plus Washington, D.C.; 145 tribes; and several industry associations. Most take the same position: sports prediction markets should be regulated by the states, not the federal government.

Dodd’s brief makes the point directly: the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act never intended to give the CFTC authority over the states’ regulation of these kinds of contracts. He cites combination contracts that link multiple games across different cities and sports: they don’t help with hedging or price discovery, so they don’t qualify as swaps under the Act 📉

Why is this worth watching? The federal appeals courts are split. Two circuit courts have ruled that sports prediction markets fall under state authority, while the Third Circuit ruled 2–1 that the CFTC has jurisdiction. On the other side of this regulatory clash are prediction markets that have grown through crypto-based settlement in recent years. Who sets the rules will determine whether they can continue to tap into sports—the biggest source of traffic 🦖

My take: On the surface, this is a fight over sports contracts. In reality, it’s about whether federal or state authorities get the final say—and it could open the door to future precedents on crypto event contracts. If the Supreme Court takes the case, the first to feel the impact won’t be everyday users, but platforms pitching event contracts as a new product ⚠️

Who do you think the Supreme Court will side with in the end—the states or the CFTC? Let’s discuss in the comments.

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Every day, we bring you the latest developments in the crypto market—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

#以太坊突破2500usdt #以太坊etf连续9日净流出
Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows and no inflows for 9 straight days. $635 million has been pulled out in a month, yet ETH is still stubbornly holding above $2,500 🦖

📈 进群一起分析行情

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw another $56.1 million in net outflows on Friday, extending their outflow streak to nine trading days. Redemptions totaled $635 million in October. The worst single day was October 6, when $201.9 million flowed out 📉

To put that in perspective, nearly $700 million has been pulled from these funds since the outflow streak began. Their cumulative net inflows since launch now stand at just $13.2 billion, with total net assets of $14.5 billion.

The contrast is striking: it’s not just one corner of crypto pulling back. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $386.3 million in net outflows over seven trading days in October, their worst week in three months. The worst day was Wednesday, with $484.9 million flowing out—the biggest daily outflow since June. But on Friday, they saw $21.1 million flow back in, while Ethereum ETFs have been left out in the cold for nine straight days ⚠️

Earlier, in September, Bitcoin ETFs had just come off a nine-day winning streak, taking in around $3 billion and pushing year-to-date flows back into positive territory. Then October brought a complete reversal.

Bitcoin is hovering around $83,000, with a sell wall of roughly $35 million stacked between $85,000 and $89,000. Ethereum first surged above $2,700 this week, then selling pressure knocked it down to $2,405 before buyers pushed it back to $2,500. Along the way, $165 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated 💥

The key level now is $2,550 to $2,600. Analyst Petar Jovanović sees this as Ethereum’s latest make-or-break zone. A move above it could open the way to $2,650 or even $2,700. If it fails to break through, ETH may keep chopping around within its current range.

One other detail: more than a third of Ethereum’s circulating supply is now staked. There are indeed fewer coins on exchanges, but analysts caution that lower balances and high staking yields don’t necessarily mean the price will rise.

My take: Ethereum’s problem this time isn’t on-chain—it’s that there’s less money coming in to buy it. Nine straight days of ETF outflows suggest institutional appetite for Ethereum is more fragile than for Bitcoin. ETH holding above $2,500 is more about bears being reluctant to chase it lower and supply being locked up than stronger buying demand. If it can’t clear the $2,550–$2,600 hurdle, this is still just a bounce.

Let’s talk in the comments: do you think this move in Ethereum is a reversal or just a rebound?

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Every day, I’ll help you follow the latest Ethereum news—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

The biggest Bitcoin theft of 2026: around 4,000 BTC moved in just over 20 minutes. 35 days later, 602 BTC are still missing. Transfers have resumed, but swapping the coins on the sidechain back into Bitcoin is still impossible. 🦖

⚡ 有大动静群里说

Liquid Network is a Bitcoin sidechain built by Blockstream. Launched in 2018, its reserves are jointly held by 15 member nodes using a 11-of-15 multisignature scheme.

At 14:28 on September 6, a single redemption transaction withdrew 3,996 BTC. Reserves plunged from 4,205 BTC to 202 BTC in less than half a minute. At the time, that was worth about $320 million. 💥

The root cause was Elements’ range-proof cache. Successfully verified proofs were cached for reuse, but the cache key checked only the proof itself—not the asset type or script. An old result was applied in a new context. ⚠️

The attacker had planted 68 identical range proofs between blocks 4,049,384 and 4,050,246. Then, at block 4,050,336, they conjured up around 3,996 L-BTC. The nodes pulled up the earlier cached result, bypassing the checks that should have stopped it.

The coins were then redeemed for real Bitcoin through federation members’ exchange service, yielding 3,996.0183 BTC.

The twist: the attacker didn’t run. Instead, they left an on-chain message claiming to be a white hat. After nine back-and-forth messages, their PGP key was verified and the bridge nodes were patched. The next day, 3,400 BTC were returned. The remaining 598.5 BTC—worth around $47 million—became a bounty they unilaterally declared.

At 4:49 a.m. on September 7, Liquid stopped producing blocks, and several exchanges paused L-BTC deposits and withdrawals. Transfers and block production resumed on September 10, but the redemption route remains closed. 🔒

Blockstream issued an incident report on September 23. On September 11, it stated clearly that it would not pay a ransom and would cooperate with law enforcement to investigate.

As of October 11, the explorer showed just 3,632.23 BTC in federation reserves, while 4,234.76 L-BTC were in circulation—a shortfall of about 602.53 BTC, with reserve coverage at roughly 85.8%.

For redemptions to reopen, three conditions must all be met: reserves must be fully replenished on a 1:1 basis, the software upgrade must be complete, and an independent security audit must be finished. The team says the audit is still underway.

My take: this incident laid bare the weak point of the sidechain model. The coins are on-chain, but custody is in the hands of a small group. One mistake in a cache, and the books no longer add up across the entire network.

The same logic applies to today’s cross-chain bridges and wrapped assets. When evaluating a project, don’t just count its audit reports. Ask who has the authority to hit pause if something goes wrong—and who has to put the money back first.

How would you rate Liquid’s response? Do you believe the white-hat story? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest Bitcoin security stories—not just what happened, but the logic and opportunities behind them. 👀🚀

1.1 million bitcoins worth around $91 billion could be permanently locked up—not a single coin movable 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

These 1.1 million bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator. At around $83,045 per bitcoin on Sunday morning, they’re worth roughly $91 billion. They’re scattered across early addresses from Bitcoin’s first year, 2009, and not a single coin has moved in more than a decade. But now, one of the fiercest debates in the Bitcoin developer community is whether to freeze them before quantum computers can steal them ⚠️

At the center of the debate is a draft proposal numbered BIP-361, titled “Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset.” Its lead author is developer Jameson Lopp. It has been listed in Bitcoin’s official repository of improvement proposals since February 2026, and its status is still Draft.

The proposal is designed to work in two stages. First, about three years after activation—or 160,000 blocks—the network would stop accepting payments to vulnerable addresses. New funds could only go to quantum-resistant formats. Second, five years after activation, on a date announced well in advance, legacy signatures would only be able to spend funds through a quantum-resistant recovery process.

Here’s the twist: that recovery process relies on the legitimate owner knowing something an attacker doesn’t—the seed phrase. But Satoshi’s coins use the earliest P2PK format, where the public keys have been plainly visible on the blockchain since the coins were created. They don’t have that advantage. Under the proposal as currently written, these 1.1 million bitcoins would most likely be permanently locked up—unless a future proposal creates a slow recovery path for assets like these.

Why the urgency? The draft says that, as of March 1, 2026, more than 34% of Bitcoin public keys have already been exposed on the blockchain. Only coins with exposed public keys are at risk. Legacy addresses expose their keys from the start, while newer formats expose them only after funds have been spent once. The proposal’s authors cite several roadmaps suggesting that quantum computers could arrive as soon as 2027 to 2030.

The opposition is just as firm. Bitcoin promises that nobody can lock up someone else’s coins. Even with several years’ notice, this proposal would still amount to locking up other people’s coins. Even Lopp himself isn’t fond of his own proposal. In April this year, he told CoinDesk, “I wrote it because I like the alternative even less.”

And this isn’t something a committee gets to decide. A soft fork requires broad agreement from miners, nodes, wallets, and exchanges. Both proposals are still only drafts, with a long way to go before approval.

My take: the real dividing line here isn’t whether Satoshi will come back. It’s whether Bitcoin should break its most fundamental promise in order to defend against future threats. Once coins can be locked based on their format, a precedent has been set. Today, it’s old addresses that haven’t moved in more than a decade. What about tomorrow? 👀

Let’s talk in the comments: do you think these 1.1 million bitcoins should be frozen, or should they remain untouched, even at the risk of being cracked by quantum computers?

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#以太坊etf连续9日净流出
Ethereum ETFs see net outflows for 9 straight days, with $542 million flowing out over 9 days—the worst stretch since January 💥

🔭 进群看资金去哪

Let’s get the facts straight: Over the past week, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw approximately $542 million in net outflows, extending their streak of consecutive outflows to a full 9 days. That’s the longest run of outflows since January this year. Bitcoin ETFs and Solana ETFs weren’t spared either, with all three recording weekly net outflows ⚠️

Here’s the striking contrast: Solana’s outflows stand out even more. Its record 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows has officially come to an end. In other words, this isn’t simply money moving from Ethereum into Solana—investors are pulling money out of all three major ETFs at once 🦖

I’ve always thought of ETF flows as a thermometer for institutional sentiment. When all three are cooling off at the same time, it points to a more cautious conclusion: institutions aren’t rotating between sectors; they’re reducing their overall crypto exposure. In a rotation, the money would go somewhere. Right now, it’s leaving first, with its next destination still undecided.

The detail really worth watching is price. Ethereum is still holding around $2,505, and Bitcoin hasn’t broken down around $83,056. ETFs are selling, but the spot market is absorbing the supply. Who’s buying on the other side is the key question for the next few weeks. If the $2,500 level gives way, funds that flowed in over the previous 14 weeks may shift from holding to sitting on the sidelines 📉

One more comparison: $542 million is roughly on par with the peak outflows Ethereum ETFs saw in January this year. Markets don’t simply repeat, but they do rhyme. If outflows continue to build next week, Solana’s just-broken 14-week streak could well be the first sign that sentiment is truly turning. On the other hand, as long as Ethereum holds above $2,500 and returns to recording daily net inflows, this could still be just a shakeout.

Let’s talk in the comments: Do you think this wave of outflows across ETFs is a short-term shakeout, or are institutions really starting to pull out?

Every day, I bring you the latest on Bitcoin and Ethereum—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#vitalik警告ai或将加速削弱密码学安全
One says two years, another says a few months. Two top researchers are warning at the same time that AI could crack encryption before quantum computers do—with Bitcoin and Ethereum’s signatures in the crosshairs 🦖

🙋 想聊的进群

Let’s be clear about what’s happening. Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, issued a rather unsettling warning this week, urging holders to steadily move their assets to brand-new addresses. His reasoning: AI-driven advances in mathematics could break the ECDSA signatures that Bitcoin and Ethereum rely on to prove ownership before quantum computers are truly ready. In the worst-case scenario, it could happen in months, not years ⚠️

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighed in afterward. He thinks it’s possible that AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs could directly crack encryption within the next two years. Note the timeframe: not decades, but two years.

The Zcash developers are moving fastest. The full-node team Zakura released a proposal almost simultaneously. Engineering lead Roman Akhtariev put it plainly in a technical post: the goal is to create a fully quantum-resistant transparent pool using hash-based signatures. The approach is to give a wallet a new address after every transaction, then add a layer of backup using a hash signature called WOTS 🧩

They’ve also provided a timeline. Zakura says the opcode for quantum-resistant signatures could make it onto the Zcash mainnet as early as next January. The accompanying private retrieval feature is due to arrive in the Vizor wallet this week. Users can enable “private queries” in the settings and start using it. But here’s the caveat: for now, this only covers public transparent transactions. Anonymous shielded transactions aren’t included, and the exact mainnet activation date hasn’t been confirmed.

My take: the point of this news isn’t how much Zcash might rise, but the signal it sends. The most cautious researchers in crypto are no longer debating when quantum computers will arrive; they’re discussing whether AI might get there first. For ordinary people, what really matters isn’t the price chart, but whether the signatures securing your assets could one day suddenly become obsolete.

Let’s talk in the comments: do you think this is fearmongering, or should you move your assets to a more quantum-resistant chain in advance?

Every day, I bring you the latest Bitcoin and Ethereum developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the news 👀🚀

$50 billion has flowed into crypto this year—but that’s only half of last year’s amount. Has the money really come back?
🦖 JPMorgan analysts’ latest estimate: around $50 billion in net inflows into digital assets so far in 2026, equivalent to an annualized rate of about $66 billion

🔎 进群看完整分析

That’s a step up from the $52 billion figure reported in May, but the report also stresses that the pace is only about half of last year’s.

Let’s break down where the money is going 📊
The ETF pipeline has clearly picked up since August, and is now showing net inflows for the year to date.
After a quiet start to the year, open interest in CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has also risen steadily over the past two months.
Money from institutions and futures is indeed coming back—but the pace is still far from the heat of the previous cycle.

On the other side is a counterparty that’s often overlooked:
Bitcoin miners have been net sellers overall this year, offloading about $1.8 billion in total 💰
Institutions are buying through ETFs and futures, while miners are selling newly mined coins. These two forces have been constantly offsetting each other.

What really matters is the measurement period ⚠️
The report says ETFs are positive year to date, but since the October 10, 2025 crash, they’re still in net outflow.
These two statements aren’t contradictory. One counts from the start of the year; the other from the day of the crash.
A return to positive flows doesn’t mean the market has recovered, let alone that a new bull run is underway.

My take: this data is more like a thermometer than a starting gun.
It tells you the worst of the cold may be over, but not how long the thaw will last.
Keep an eye on three things: whether ETFs continue to see net inflows in the fourth quarter, whether CME open interest keeps rising, and whether miner selling pressure eases.
Only if all three improve can we talk about a trend. One good-looking month still means we’re just swinging back and forth in a choppy market.

Current market: Bitcoin is around $83,040 and Ethereum around $2,502, both slightly in the green.
The broader market is going nowhere, and money is picking its direction. At times like this, data is worth more than sentiment.

Do you think this $50 billion is a genuine return of capital, or just a game of measurement periods? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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€1 billion. 10-year term. For the first time in Europe, a country is moving an entire sovereign bond onto the blockchain 🦖

📣 盘面异动群里喊

First, the news: On October 7, when presenting the 2027 budget, Luxembourg Finance Minister Gilles Roth announced plans to issue at least €1 billion in blockchain-native sovereign benchmark bonds, with a term of around 10 years, denominated in euros, governed by Luxembourg law, and listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. The Finance Ministry says this could be Europe’s first natively on-chain sovereign bond 📈

This is no small-scale pilot. €1 billion with a 10-year term is the profile of a sovereign benchmark bond. That means it’s headed for real institutional balance sheets—not the lab.

Here’s the catch: The government hasn’t yet announced which blockchain it will use, who will handle custody, how settlement will work, what the coupon will be, or when the bond will be issued. Not one detail ⚠️

Why are institutions paying attention? The Finance Ministry says the bond is expected to qualify as collateral for Eurosystem credit operations. In other words, banks won’t just earn interest on it—they’ll also be able to use it to obtain liquidity from the central bank. That’s the turning point that could transform digital bonds from a concept into a practical instrument.

The infrastructure is taking shape, too. The European Central Bank recently launched a settlement bridge specifically for settling tokenized transactions in central bank money, covering assets such as digital bonds. Luxembourg itself issued a digital government bond certificate in 2025. This time, the experiment is moving from a small certificate to a much larger sovereign bond program 🏦

My take: The real question isn’t which blockchain they choose, but whether they can deliver on the word “native.” If this is just a traditional bond wrapped in another layer of tokens, the significance is limited. But if the entire process—issuance, registration, custody, and settlement—runs on-chain, then the cost and timeline of sovereign debt issuance could be rewritten. On the other hand, the continued lack of details suggests this is still some way from becoming reality.

So, what do you think? Will on-chain sovereign bonds spread as quickly as stablecoins, or will this be another show with announcements but no transactions? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest on RWA and crypto. It’s not just about what’s happening in the news—I’ll also help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

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XRP, with an $88 billion market cap, has barely moved in three days—but its ledger is voting to rewrite its own rules 🦖

📈 进群一起分析行情

First, let’s get the facts straight. XRP is currently at $1.3937. Its closing prices from October 9 to 11 were $1.3944, $1.4010, and $1.3937—in other words, it barely budged over three days. The day’s high-to-low range was just 1.8%, compared with an average daily range of 5.6% over the past 30 days. The weekly chart tells a very different story: XRP closed at $1.5202 on October 4, then fell 8.3% in a week. The drop from $1.4970 on October 7 to $1.3177 on October 8 alone amounted to nearly 12% in two days.

The price may be still, but things are moving on-chain. The XRP Ledger has its own mechanism for changing the rules. It doesn’t depend on what Ripple wants—it depends on how validators vote. Of the 32 validators on the default list, a proposal needs about 80%, or 25 votes, and that support must hold for two consecutive weeks. If even one vote drops during that time, the timer resets.

Two proposals are moving forward at the same time. One is a patch to clean up old code, fixCleanup3_4_0. It had secured majority support by October 9 and now has 26 votes. If all goes as expected, it will take effect automatically on the morning of October 23. The other proposal is the one to watch: the code for lending on the XRP Ledger has been written for a while, but it’s been stuck at 17 votes—8 short of the required 25. And Ripple is betting its 2027 business plan on this feature 📉

On one side, a technical patch that cleans up old code is on track to pass in just four days. On the other, a real feature that could earn interest and enable lending still can’t get enough votes. That’s the cost of decentralized governance—and the reason it exists. No single company gets to make the call; more than half of the validators have to agree.

Controversy has followed. Justin Bons, founder of Dutch fund Cyber Capital, publicly criticized XRP, claiming it had been running closed-source validator software for the past two weeks. He also said validators could be kicked off the network in the future if they don’t upgrade. He went so far as to call XRP’s consensus mechanism “proof of authority,” claiming Ripple and the XRP Ledger Foundation control two permissioned lists ⚠️

My take: what’s really worth watching this time isn’t the $1.39 price—it’s the 25-vote threshold. If the lending feature passes, XRP could evolve from a cross-border payments network into an on-chain financial layer where capital can be put to work. That’s the story it’s been telling for years, but has yet to deliver on. On the other hand, if criticisms like Bons’s gain traction, institutions that favor centralized efficiency will have to rethink their position too 💥

One more thing: veteran trader Peter Brandt has set a target of $2.16, provided XRP first breaks above $1.60. Above that, there’s also a supply zone between $2 and $3.70, where holders who bought in back then may be waiting to break even.

Do you think passing the lending feature would mark a real turning point for XRP—or would it be another case of promises on paper? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest on XRP and crypto trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

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#ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
A hardware wallet bought through an officially authorized channel was found to contain a chip that shouldn’t have been there. Estimated losses: $86 million 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

Ledger confirmed in a post on Sunday, October 11, that an unauthorized hardware component had been found implanted in a user’s device. Investigator Specter estimates that losses in this incident could exceed $86 million, involving Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron ⚠️

The affected devices came from CryptoBilis, a Southeast Asian distributor and an authorized Ledger reseller in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

“Authorized,” “genuine,” and “official channel” are the kinds of words that make people feel safe. And yet the very thing that failed this time was one of those officially authorized channels 🔒

As for the parties’ responses, CryptoBilis has suspended sales of all hardware wallet inventory pending the investigation’s findings. Ledger, meanwhile, has stressed that the incident is limited to this one distributor and its market, and that its own infrastructure, systems, and services were not compromised. It has also issued two recommendations: don’t initialize devices that haven’t been set up yet; if you’ve already set yours up, consider moving your assets to a new signing device using a fresh recovery phrase.

The distinction here is worth noting: so far, Ledger has not confirmed how many customers were affected or the actual amount of the losses. The $86 million figure comes from a third-party investigator’s estimate, not an official figure.

Put simply, the security of a cold wallet doesn’t depend only on the chip itself. It also depends on every step along the way before the device reaches you. Buying through an official channel doesn’t guarantee that every link in the supply chain is free from tampering. That’s what we should be paying closest attention to. If this kind of hardware implant becomes part of a repeatable supply chain, the entire idea of self-custody will need to be reassessed 💥

One more thing: Tether has also frozen USDT connected to this case, showing that on-chain tracking is already underway. A hardware-level vulnerability ultimately still requires on-chain data to track down those responsible.

Would you buy a hardware wallet from a third-party distributor to save a few dozen dollars, or would you rather pay a little more and buy directly from the official store? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, we bring you the latest in crypto security—not just what happened, but the logic and opportunities behind the news 👀🚀

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Argentina’s central bank poured cold water on the idea: banks can forget about touching crypto for the next two years. Yet in the past year, $88.5 billion flowed on-chain 🦖

📣 盘面异动群里喊

That’s what Juan Curutchet, the head of financial institutions supervision at Argentina’s central bank, said at a payments industry event. He made it clear that there would be no near-term change in banks’ and payment providers’ access to digital assets ⚖️

His exact words were blunt: “Nothing will happen this year. But if Milei gets a second term, I see it as a possibility.”

The statement quashed a string of rumors. Reports had previously claimed that the central bank was drafting a proposal to allow banks to offer crypto services, and there had been hints from within the banking system. The regulator denied it on the spot.

The real sticking point is the ban imposed in 2022. That year, Argentina’s central bank prohibited financial institutions from providing crypto services. The restriction remains in place today, and whether it can be lifted depends on the state of the economy ahead of the election.

Curutchet also acknowledged the reality: Argentina is currently too fragile for the plan to move forward. But he stressed that it’s an issue that will have to be discussed sooner or later—he believes it has simply been pushed onto the agenda for later 💵

Here’s the most interesting twist: regulators are keeping crypto out of banks, but the banks are finding their own way around the rules. Several banking groups are using independent companies to develop institutional-grade stablecoin projects, with applications including cash management, payments triggered by on-chain conditions, and collateralized lending.

The numbers speak for themselves: Argentina is already Latin America’s second-largest crypto hub. According to Chainalysis, in the 12 months through June 30, it received more than $88.5 billion in on-chain value—even though its currency controls had only just ended 🏦

In other words, this isn’t a crackdown on crypto. It’s about keeping the risk outside the banking system. On one side, regulators are holding firm; on the other, demand for stablecoins is finding its own way out. These two trends are likely to coexist in Argentina for a long time.

What do you think? Will this combination of keeping banks on a tight leash while leaving the door open to on-chain activity ultimately make stablecoins safer, or push risks somewhere harder to see? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, we bring you the latest on crypto regulation in Argentina—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

An on-chain sleuth dug up 49 recommendations: buy first, hype it up, then sell. A crypto influencer is estimated to have pocketed $125,000 🐋

📢 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

On October 11, on-chain analytics platform Bubblemaps published an estimate linking a crypto influencer known as Ethan to roughly $125,000 in trading profits.

The focus was on Pump.fun, a token-launch platform on Solana. The estimate covers 49 token recommendations, averaging about $2,551 each.

A recommendation, in this case, means an influencer publicly urging followers to buy a coin—usually around the time its price starts to take off. Bubblemaps’ tool looks for patterns in wallet activity around the time of each recommendation, such as buying in advance, well-timed transactions, and selling into the hype 🔍

Let’s be clear about the wording: different outlets have framed this differently. CryptoBriefing described the figure as a Bubblemaps estimate—an analysis of on-chain activity. Crypto.news used stronger language, characterizing it as an alleged scam targeting Pump.fun users.

That difference in wording matters. An estimated profit doesn’t prove fraudulent intent. The original report also doesn’t say which specific tokens were recommended, what time period was covered, or whether losing trades were included. So far, Ethan has not made a public response.

My take: the significance of cases like this isn’t the $125,000 figure—it’s the pattern. When someone with a large following can buy before recommending a token and sell before their followers do, retail investors are always getting secondhand information. This isn’t a market issue; it’s a problem with the structure of trust.

In the past, investigating this kind of activity meant combing through blockchain explorers. Now a single heat map can reveal clusters of wallets. That’s good news for ordinary people and bad news for those who profit from information asymmetry. What’s worth watching is whether tools like this become standard practice, making shilling tokens a business with real costs 🦖

One more thing: this case isn’t very large in dollar terms and is unlikely to move the broader market. But it’s like a probe, poking at a question many people are asking: the recommendations I see—are they based on research, or am I someone else’s exit liquidity?

Do you ever buy coins based on influencer recommendations? Have you ever bought in only to watch the price slowly sink? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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#ledger暂停cryptobilis销售
A hardware wallet sold by a distributor turned out to be a key in hackers’ hands. 315 wallets were drained, affecting 6 blockchains, with losses nearing $93 million 🦖

📢 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

It started with users in Southeast Asia. They bought hardware wallets from a distributor called CryptoBilis, then began reporting that the assets in their wallets had been wiped out. The distributor operates in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Blockchain analytics firm Bitquery traced the losses across 6 blockchains: TRON, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and Polygon. The latest tally is 315 wallets, with losses totaling around $93.2 million. Just a week ago, the figure was only $86 million ⚠️

How could an incident on one chain affect six? The key is the recovery phrase. A single recovery phrase can derive all the addresses associated with a wallet across every network. So if someone got hold of the seed phrase at the source, the attacker effectively had the same key—and could sweep assets from different chains all at once.

One other detail is especially alarming: Bitquery found small test transfers taking place over two weeks before the theft began in earnest. This looks more like organized, premeditated reconnaissance than a random opportunity.

Ledger’s official response was to confirm that it is investigating and ask CryptoBilis to suspend all hardware wallet sales and shipments. It also urged anyone who recently bought from the distributor not to initialize any device that hasn’t yet been activated. For devices that have already been activated, it recommends moving assets to a new device with a freshly generated recovery phrase.

As of now, the attack method has not been publicly confirmed. The available evidence has also not proven that Ledger’s core infrastructure was compromised. Whether the devices were refurbished, swapped, or tampered with in some other way is still under investigation.

Efforts to contain the damage are also underway. Tether has frozen around $10 million in USDT linked to the case. Another wallet associated with the incident transferred 464 ETH to the mixer Tornado Cash, apparently in an attempt to break the trail 💥

Put simply, what really stings about this incident is that it punctures the core sense of security people get from hardware wallets. We assume that putting our coins in cold storage is like locking them away. But if someone made a key for that lock before it ever reached you, no matter how many locks you have, they won’t help.

The supply chain is the real weak point of hardware wallets.

When buying a hardware wallet, what do you think is most important to verify: that you’re buying through an official channel, or the device’s setup process after it arrives? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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Hiring accelerated for the fifth consecutive week, with weekly job gains surging to 23,750. Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak on Friday, and this week’s five data releases will each help determine whether crypto’s rebound can stay alive 🦖

💡 群里更新数据解读

The schedule is set: Tuesday, October 13 — ADP employment; Wednesday, October 14 — CPI; Thursday, October 15 — PPI and initial jobless claims; Friday, October 16 — Fed Chair Warsh speaks.

First, employment. The October 6 ADP report showed that private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs per week in the four weeks through September 19. That marks a fifth consecutive acceleration, up 18.75% from the reading two weeks earlier. The figure has climbed steadily from 12,250 on August 22 to 23,750 now 📈

Inflation is the biggest wild card this week. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year last month, with gasoline as the main driver. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year.

The Producer Price Index released the same day was even hotter: up 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year. Energy prices rose 4.2%, diesel soared 24.1%, and crude oil gained 5.2% ⚠️

The labor market remains resilient, but the broader picture is less rosy. Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 last week, down 2,000 from the previous reading. Continuing claims were about 1.716 million, up 17,000 from the week before. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%.

In other words, this combination isn’t good news for crypto. Strong employment suggests the economy isn’t cooling, while year-over-year inflation at 3.4% is still far from a level at which the Fed would be willing to ease.

At his most recent meeting, Chair Warsh raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. Now the market is trying to figure out whether he’ll keep raising them.

If CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected again, rate-hike expectations will rise, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely face another wave of selling pressure. Ethereum spot ETFs have already seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days this week, with $542.1 million flowing out over the week—the worst result since January. Bitcoin is also struggling around $83,000. That’s money getting defensive ahead of time 🐋

So this week’s takeaway is clear: hot data puts risk assets under pressure; softer data would give them some breathing room. And Warsh’s choice of words on Friday could directly determine next week’s direction.

Which of these five data releases do you think will have the biggest impact on crypto prices? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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#tether冻结ledger盗窃案相关usdt
The issuer hit the pause button: 1.45 million USDT frozen on the spot, and a supposedly permissionless cross-chain bridge brought to a complete halt for 3 hours 🧊

⚡ 有大动静群里说

On October 9, Tether, the issuer of USDT, blacklisted four USDT vaults belonging to the cross-chain protocol THORChain on the TRON network.

Around 1.45 million USDT was affected. Cross-chain swaps, transaction signing, and market-making operations all came to a halt. About 3 hours later, the addresses were removed from the blacklist, with every cent still there. No explanation was given at any point.

THORChain co-founder Chad Barraford said on social media that this was unprecedented across the industry. He stressed that there had been no communication beforehand, leaving the team with no choice but to speak out publicly and ask for a conversation.

The mechanism is straightforward: Tether called the addBlackList function in its TRC-20 contract on TRON. Once an address is added to the list, it can no longer send USDT, disabling the entire transaction route.

This wasn’t a move targeting just one chain. It was a bulk freeze affecting a batch of wallets, so THORChain’s vaults were likely caught up in it. That also explains why they were unfrozen so quickly.

There’s another layer to the story: around the same time, Tether was also freezing addresses in bulk that were linked to the theft from a Ledger distributor in Southeast Asia. Whether the two events are directly connected remains unclear; the company has yet to comment. ⚖️

Put simply, the real takeaway isn’t the figure of 1.45 million. It’s that this incident has made one thing clear: no matter how much a protocol removes intermediaries, its neutrality has limits as long as the assets it moves are controlled by a single issuer.

The code may be permissionless, but the assets have an owner. Stablecoins are the switch that can be flipped at any moment. 🦖

For everyday users, this isn’t a reason to panic. It’s a reminder that decentralization often comes in layers. The protocol layer you use may be very open, while the underlying asset layer may be not decentralized at all.

Do you think an issuer’s power to freeze funds with one click is a necessary safety valve, or decentralization’s biggest weakness? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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From $236 to $1: This veteran storage blockchain token is about to slash its issuance by 75% in one go 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

First, the facts: FIL, or Filecoin, officially announced on September 4 that its vesting schedule will end on October 15. After that, the network’s gross issuance will drop by about 75%. In annualized terms, that means new issuance will fall from around 88 million tokens a year to about 22 million. The project says this is the biggest supply change since the mainnet launched in October 2020. In other words, the full six-year vesting cycle is coming to an end 📉

Just how stark is the contrast? Look at the price. The same FIL that reached a high of $236.84 in April 2021 is now worth just $1.079. That’s a drop of more than 99% from its peak. Its market cap is around $902 million, with about 835 million tokens in circulation and a total supply of roughly 1.957 billion. It ranks 84th by market cap. Yet it’s up about 37% over the past 30 days ⚠️

To be clear, the 75% cut applies to newly released tokens—not tokens already in circulation. When the mainnet launched, allocations for early investors, the team, and the foundation were scheduled to unlock in stages over six years. Once those unlocks end, the daily selling pressure from new issuance will fall sharply. But note: this is not a burn, nor is the total supply being reduced. Block rewards for miners will continue. So the more accurate way to put it is that new supply is hitting the brakes, not that supply is being removed 💥

On the other side, the project also highlighted Filecoin Onchain Cloud and Fil One, aiming to build up paid demand on-chain. Revenue from Filecoin Pay, an on-chain payment tool, is up around 88-fold year over year—from about $663 to roughly $59,000. The absolute amount is still small, but the direction is clear: new supply is shrinking while real paid demand is being pushed higher. If both happen at once, that’s when the balance between supply and demand can truly shift 📈

My take: this structural change on the supply side is worth watching, but don’t rush to treat it as a trigger for a huge rally. The market has already priced in some of the expectations. The real question is whether on-chain paid demand can keep growing after October 15. If issuance falls but nobody uses the network, the price can still go down. On the other hand, if demand really takes off, the impact of shrinking supply will be amplified.

Do you think this 75% cut in issuance marks the start of a long-term trend, or is it another bout of hype ahead of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment? Share your thoughts in the comments 👀

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From $21 to $0.5—this coin suddenly surged 25% in a day 🦖

📣 盘面异动群里喊

First, the numbers: Celestia’s token TIA is up 25.17% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at around $0.598. This isn’t some newly launched coin. In early 2024, it reached a high of nearly $21, then drifted steadily downward. For most of 2026, it’s been hovering below $1. From its peak, it’s now down more than 90%. Today’s rally has sent it straight back near the top of the gainers’ list 📈

Even more striking is another number. By technical analysts’ measures, TIA is now nearly 58% above its 200-period moving average. The faster it rises, the farther it moves from the average—and the greater the chance of a short-term reversion to the mean. On one hand, there’s the thrill of a 25% daily gain; on the other, a warning that it’s become badly overextended. Put those two numbers side by side, and the contrast is clear ⚠️

For context, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,000 at the same time, up just 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is around $2,508 and still struggling near a key support zone. The broader market is barely moving, while some smaller-cap coins are gaining 20% in a day. That suggests money isn’t flowing into the market across the board; it looks more like localized rotation within existing capital. Investors are crowding into whatever has the most compelling story 💥

Put simply, this kind of market can easily be mistaken for a broad-based recovery. In reality, it looks more like a localized trading frenzy: prices rise fast, and they can fall just as quickly. A reading like TIA’s 58% deviation from its 200-period moving average has historically tended to signal short-term overheating, not the start of a new trend. What’s really worth watching isn’t how much it gained today, but whether it can absorb those gains and hold above the moving average on a pullback 📉

My take: when the broader market is quiet, sudden surges in smaller coins are usually short-term moves by investors looking for an outlet. Those who chase the rally are betting that the excitement will continue—and sentiment is precisely the least reliable thing to count on. Rather than staring at the top line of the gainers’ list, ask yourself first: have this coin’s fundamentals actually changed? Often, the answer is no.

Do you think these smaller coins gaining 20% in a day are a sign that money is cautiously returning, or the prelude to another pump-and-dump? Share your thoughts in the comments 👀

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#以太坊etf连续9日净流出 #以太坊突破2500usdt
Three ETFs all turned lower this week. Ethereum saw $542.1 million in outflows in a single week, its worst since January 🦖

💬 群里一起聊行情

First, the numbers: U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $542.1 million last week, their worst week since January. That also marked nine consecutive trading days of net outflows. This wasn’t just a single day of withdrawals—it was two full weeks of sustained redemptions ⚠️

Even more unusual, two other funds turned lower at the same time. Solana funds, which had attracted inflows ever since their launch, saw their largest weekly outflow since launch last week, ending a 14-week streak of inflows. Bitcoin funds also ended a three-week streak of inflows. All three major assets flipped from inflows to outflows at once—a first this year 📉

Prices are sitting right at key levels. Ethereum is currently around $2,508, down nearly 7% for the week, and is testing a support zone that has held several times before. Bitcoin is around $82,954, up a modest 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Solana is around $110, virtually unchanged. The broader market looks calm on the surface, but money is flowing out through the most convenient channel: ETFs 💥

Put simply, this isn’t just a routine sector rotation. The ETF machine itself has stalled in the short term. Over the past few weeks, ETFs were the main channel bringing off-exchange capital into the market. Now that channel is flowing in reverse, shrinking the pool of buyers. The same selling pressure must be absorbed by thinner liquidity, making support levels easier to break.

Two things matter now. First, can Ethereum close above this support zone on the daily chart? If it holds, this could be a shakeout. If it breaks, there’s no obvious technical floor below. Second, will ETF outflows slow next week? If they continue, that would suggest institutions are reducing exposure through redeemable products—and this would be more than just a technical issue.

My take: Ethereum’s position matters more than its price right now. Nine consecutive days of net ETF outflows suggest that natural buyers are thinning out, while funds in the staking queue are also cooling. The two trends weakening at the same time—that’s the real warning sign.

Do you think this move is a normal shakeout near support, or are institutions using ETFs to exit in an orderly way? Share your thoughts in the comments 👀

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#strk24小时上涨约20%
Up 90% in a week, up 40% in a day—and now it’s saying it isn’t secure enough 🦖

👉 进群看盘面

Starknet’s native token, STRK, rose about 90% in a week and another 40% in 24 hours, with its price climbing to around $0.10 and its market cap reaching about $768 million. For the first time in a year, it broke into the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap. And it all started with a short post published on October 8 by StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson 📈

There was just one sentence in the post, but it was reposted again and again: “We are actively considering becoming an independent Layer 1 chain.” The goal is to make Starknet the first fully quantum-resistant network, with 2027 as the target date ⚠️

Why would a coin that just surged come out and say that the foundations beneath it aren’t secure enough? That’s what makes this rally truly worth paying attention to.

Starknet is currently a Layer 2 on Ethereum, and it inherits its security from Ethereum. Transaction data, state commitments, and finality all depend on Ethereum’s consensus and settlement layers. The upside is that Starknet doesn’t have to build its own validator system from scratch. The trade-off is that it doesn’t get to decide the pace of security upgrades.

Ben-Sasson put the issue plainly: a Layer 2 can only be as quantum-resistant as its underlying layer. Ethereum must complete its transition to quantum resistance as soon as possible; otherwise, there’s little a Layer 2 can do on its own.

The timeline is indeed getting tighter. A study published in March this year by Google Quantum AI estimated that breaking 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography would take only about 1,200 logical qubits—a figure well below earlier expectations. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology plans to phase out ECDSA signatures by 2030 and ban them entirely by 2035. The Ethereum Foundation’s roadmap calls for quantum upgrades to the execution, consensus, and data layers to be completed by December 2029, progressing through a hard fork every 7.2 months on average.

Starknet wants to capitalize on that window. Its proof system, STARK, is based on hash functions, and there are currently no known quantum polynomial-time attack algorithms against it. Native account abstraction at the account layer means the signature algorithm can be changed without a network-wide hard fork. In August this year, the mainnet ran an experiment in which a contract account signed with Falcon-512 transferred real assets. The address stayed the same, and the fee was about 6 cents.

My take: that 90% rally isn’t a bet on the technology—it’s pricing in the race against time. The market is betting on one thing: whoever turns quantum resistance from a paper concept into a working mainnet first will get a ticket to the next big narrative. But there’s a cost. Becoming a Layer 1 means running your own validators, bearing the burden of consensus security, and dealing with every vulnerability yourself. The bill for that path will come due before 2027 🔐

Do you think quantum resistance is the next real-world need, or just another story being spun in this cycle? Let’s talk in the comments.

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