Hiring accelerated for the fifth consecutive week, with weekly job gains surging to 23,750. Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak on Friday, and this week’s five data releases will each help determine whether crypto’s rebound can stay alive 🦖
💡 群里更新数据解读
The schedule is set: Tuesday, October 13 — ADP employment; Wednesday, October 14 — CPI; Thursday, October 15 — PPI and initial jobless claims; Friday, October 16 — Fed Chair Warsh speaks.
First, employment. The October 6 ADP report showed that private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs per week in the four weeks through September 19. That marks a fifth consecutive acceleration, up 18.75% from the reading two weeks earlier. The figure has climbed steadily from 12,250 on August 22 to 23,750 now 📈
Inflation is the biggest wild card this week. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year last month, with gasoline as the main driver. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year.
The Producer Price Index released the same day was even hotter: up 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year. Energy prices rose 4.2%, diesel soared 24.1%, and crude oil gained 5.2% ⚠️
The labor market remains resilient, but the broader picture is less rosy. Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 last week, down 2,000 from the previous reading. Continuing claims were about 1.716 million, up 17,000 from the week before. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
In other words, this combination isn’t good news for crypto. Strong employment suggests the economy isn’t cooling, while year-over-year inflation at 3.4% is still far from a level at which the Fed would be willing to ease.
At his most recent meeting, Chair Warsh raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. Now the market is trying to figure out whether he’ll keep raising them.
If CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected again, rate-hike expectations will rise, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely face another wave of selling pressure. Ethereum spot ETFs have already seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days this week, with $542.1 million flowing out over the week—the worst result since January. Bitcoin is also struggling around $83,000. That’s money getting defensive ahead of time 🐋
So this week’s takeaway is clear: hot data puts risk assets under pressure; softer data would give them some breathing room. And Warsh’s choice of words on Friday could directly determine next week’s direction.
Which of these five data releases do you think will have the biggest impact on crypto prices? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we help you keep up with the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
💡 群里更新数据解读
The schedule is set: Tuesday, October 13 — ADP employment; Wednesday, October 14 — CPI; Thursday, October 15 — PPI and initial jobless claims; Friday, October 16 — Fed Chair Warsh speaks.
First, employment. The October 6 ADP report showed that private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs per week in the four weeks through September 19. That marks a fifth consecutive acceleration, up 18.75% from the reading two weeks earlier. The figure has climbed steadily from 12,250 on August 22 to 23,750 now 📈
Inflation is the biggest wild card this week. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year last month, with gasoline as the main driver. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year.
The Producer Price Index released the same day was even hotter: up 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year. Energy prices rose 4.2%, diesel soared 24.1%, and crude oil gained 5.2% ⚠️
The labor market remains resilient, but the broader picture is less rosy. Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 last week, down 2,000 from the previous reading. Continuing claims were about 1.716 million, up 17,000 from the week before. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
In other words, this combination isn’t good news for crypto. Strong employment suggests the economy isn’t cooling, while year-over-year inflation at 3.4% is still far from a level at which the Fed would be willing to ease.
At his most recent meeting, Chair Warsh raised interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. Now the market is trying to figure out whether he’ll keep raising them.
If CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected again, rate-hike expectations will rise, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely face another wave of selling pressure. Ethereum spot ETFs have already seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days this week, with $542.1 million flowing out over the week—the worst result since January. Bitcoin is also struggling around $83,000. That’s money getting defensive ahead of time 🐋
So this week’s takeaway is clear: hot data puts risk assets under pressure; softer data would give them some breathing room. And Warsh’s choice of words on Friday could directly determine next week’s direction.
Which of these five data releases do you think will have the biggest impact on crypto prices? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we help you keep up with the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀