CITIC Securities research report states that in 2026, the macro asset environment may present characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. We recommend commodities > stocks > bonds.

In terms of equities, we expect the full-year increase of the Wind All A index in 2026 to be 5%-10%; Hong Kong stocks are expected to welcome a performance bottom rebound + a second round of valuation repair with a "Davis double-click" market; U.S. stocks are likely to maintain fundamental growth momentum under the "fiscal + monetary" dual easing backdrop in the mid-term election year. In terms of bonds, we expect the 10-year China Government Bond yield to operate within a full-year range of 1.5%-1.8%, with a pace of first declining and then rising; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may fluctuate in the range of 3.9%-4.3%.

In terms of commodities, the supply and demand pattern of crude oil shifts from surplus to balance, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate in the range of $58-$70 per barrel throughout the year; gold continues to be strong under the support of liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, but the rate of increase is expected to slow, with a potential to challenge $5000 per ounce; copper has strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an expected average price increase to $12000 per ton. In terms of exchange rates, the Renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, and the USD/RMB exchange rate center is expected to gradually approach 6.8.