📉 【End-of-Year Market Three Major “Hidden Risks”: Tax Sell-Off Pressure, Liquidity Drought, and Leverage Squeeze
💸 Risk One: Annual Tax Sell-Off Wave
The U.S. "Tax Loss Harvesting" has entered its peak window (until December 31)
Traditional Practice: Sell losing assets within the year to offset taxes → Crypto assets become the main target
Historical Data: In the last week of December over the past 3 years, BTC average decline was -7.2%
Warning: Short-term selling pressure may last until New Year's Day
🌊 Risk Two: Christmas Liquidity Trap
Major global exchanges operate with reduced volume during the holidays
Typical Characteristics:
▸ Buy/Sell order thickness reduced by 30%-40%
▸ A single large order can trigger a ±3% flash crash/surge
▸ Inter-exchange price spreads widen to over $200
Reminder: Light positions during the holidays, avoid placing orders at extreme levels
⚡ Risk Three: High Leverage Liquidation Crisis
2025 liquidation data is alarming:
Total annual liquidation amount: Over $150 billion
Average daily liquidation amount: $4-5 billion
Largest single-day liquidation: $8.2 billion (October 24)
Current leverage status:
▸ Total open contracts across the network: $48.5 billion (at historical highs)
▸ Long/short leverage ratio: 1.8 (longs still dominate)
▸ Liquidation heatmap shows: $85,500-$86,800 has a large number of long stop-loss positions
🛡️ Survival Strategies Under Triple Risk Overlay:
1️⃣ Position Management: Reduce spot positions to below 70%, contract leverage not exceeding 3x
2️⃣ Order Settings: Avoid using market orders, stop-loss orders should be set away from dense liquidation zones
3️⃣ Timing Selection: Key operations should avoid New York time between 1-5 AM (the thinnest liquidity period)
4️⃣ Hedging Preparation: Consider buying a small number of put options or shorting mainstream altcoins for hedging
📅 Risk Timeline:
12.26-12.30 → Peak Tax Sell-Off Period
12.31-1.1 → New Year Liquidity Vacuum Period
1.2-1.5 → Institutional Fund Reflow Observation Period
💎 Senior Institutional Traders Remind:
“Year-end is not the time to pursue returns,
but to protect capital.
Survive December to smile in May (after the halving).”
🔭 Current Most Dangerous Signal:
When tax sell-off pressure meets liquidity drought,
and collides with high leverage structures,
the market is like a room full of dry kindling—
any spark could trigger a chain explosion.
⚠️ Final Warning:
If you don’t know what you’re doing,
then the best action now is—
