In recent years, people have often asked me, 'Why is it that during the same market wave, some people get liquidated while you can steadily withdraw?' Honestly, there's no mystery; I'm just a 'coward' who treats trading as a probability game rather than a casino. Today, I'll break down my core thoughts. I won't recommend any coins, just share methods suitable for those who don't want to stay up late watching the market and hope to survive long-term.
1. Profit first, 'cash out,' and ensure your principal is protected.
I started small, and my first principle is: take profits first and never go all in.
Every time I open a position, when profits reach 10% of the principal (for example, if the principal is 10,000 U, and I earn 1,000 U), I immediately transfer half of the profits to a cold wallet and continue to roll the remaining half.
When the market is good, rely on compound interest to roll the snowball; when it drops, only give back profits without hurting the principal. After 5 years, I've withdrawn over 30 times using this method, with the highest being 150,000 USDT in a week, and I was even called by the exchange's customer service to inquire about the source of funds.
This move is actually like playing Mahjong: after winning, first draw a few red tickets and stash them in your socks, then continue playing. Having a solid foundation ensures that your operations won't deform.
2. Do not guess price movements, but rather 'profit from fluctuations'.
I never stubbornly stick to a direction but instead use multiple time frames to hedge and profit from fluctuations:
Use the daily line to determine the big direction (for example, an upward trend), find the fluctuation range on the 4-hour chart, and pinpoint entry on the 15-minute chart.
Open two orders for the same cryptocurrency: one order follows the trend and breaks through (with a stop-loss set at the previous low on the daily chart), and the other order is a reverse short order placed in the overbought zone on the 4-hour chart. Both orders should have stop-losses controlled within 1.5% of the principal, and take profits set at over 5 times.
For example, last year a certain cryptocurrency spiked 90% in one day; my trend-following order was stopped out, but the reverse short order gained 40% profit.
This move essentially does not treat the market as an enemy, but rather uses its fluctuations to 'arbitrage'. It's like running a small shop: sell popsicles on sunny days and umbrellas on rainy days; there's always money to be made.
3. Accept a high failure rate, but the risk-reward ratio must be aggressive.
My win rate is only around 35%, but the risk-reward ratio has long been maintained at 5:1—losing 10 times means I only need to win 2 times to break even. Key actions:
Divide the funds into 10 parts, using only 1 part at a time, while holding no more than 3 parts.
If I lose 2 consecutive orders, I directly close the software and take a break, avoiding 'revenge orders'.
For every time the account doubles, withdraw 20% of the profits to exchange for stable assets (such as tokenized US Treasury products RWA, with an annualized return of 4%-5%), and continue to roll the rest.
This is like playing Texas Hold'em: fold quickly when you have a bad hand, and dare to raise when you have a good hand. Over the long term, the mathematical advantage is on your side. Follow Muqing to learn more firsthand information and cryptocurrency knowledge at precise points, becoming your guide in the crypto world, as learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 $ETH
