The previously mentioned Bitcoin at 93000 and Ethereum at 3000 levels, the market was not polite at all, hitting the targets precisely. Now everyone in the group is sharing their profits; if you missed out, don’t worry, the real directional choice may have just begun. Below, I will break down several possible scenarios, key points, and operational logic clearly.
🤔 What exactly is happening in the current market?
Simply put, it’s about 'insufficient liquidity, with both bulls and bears testing the waters.' During the Christmas period, the mainstream markets in Europe and America are closed, and institutional funds are mostly inactive, with the market driven primarily by retail investors and quantitative programs. This leads to two outcomes:
Volatility can be amplified: A relatively small order could trigger a 'spike' market, so don't think that everything is calm right now.
Lack of strong direction: Bitcoin oscillates between $87,000 and $88,000, while Ethereum hovers around $2,900 to $3,000, lacking catalysts to break the balance in the short term.
At times like this, chasing prices up and down is the most taboo. The market is waiting for a signal, and this signal is likely to appear when liquidity returns after the holiday.
📉 Bitcoin: Three scenarios, which one do you bet on?
How will Bitcoin move next? Based on the current on-chain data, institutional positions, and macro sentiment, I summarize three scenarios with different probabilities.
Scenario 1: Consolidation and bottoming, using time to exchange for space (highest probability, about 60%)
This is the most grueling, but also the most likely scenario. Bitcoin will repeatedly oscillate within a large range, such as between $75,000 and $100,000. The characteristic is that every time you think it will break upward, it gets knocked down; every time you think it will break downward, funds support it. This kind of market is suited for patient individuals to buy in batches at low prices, but trying to make quick profits will be very uncomfortable.
Scenario 2: Deep correction, reloading after washing (medium probability, about 30%)
If macroeconomic negativity (such as the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish stance or a correction in the U.S. stock market) occurs after the holiday, market sentiment may further deteriorate. The key support level is around $86,500; if it breaks down significantly, the next area to watch closely is $80,000-$75,000. Many analysts believe that if institutional ETF funds continue to flow out, the likelihood of this scenario will increase.
Scenario 3: Direct reversal, strong surge (lowest probability, about 10%)
To directly kickstart a rally toward $110,000 or even higher, strong positive drivers are needed, such as large-scale allocations of Bitcoin by U.S. pensions. But currently, this possibility is the lowest. Even if it happens, such a surge may be very rapid, making it hard for retail investors to comfortably enter, more like preparing for a potential 'institutional bull' next year.
My view is: In the short term, I lean more towards Scenario 1, that is, continuing to oscillate. However, we need to guard against the risks of Scenario 2, so we must be prepared for both outcomes in our operations.
💁 Ethereum: Key focus on the $3,000 battle
Ethereum's movements are strongly correlated with Bitcoin, but it has its own key levels.
The core in the short term is whether we can stabilize above the psychological threshold of $3,000. If we can break through and stabilize, the next target is around $3,200.
The risk is that if we cannot effectively break through $3,000, we may again test the support strength at $2,850-$2,800. There is currently significant divergence on whether 2026 will be worse; some analysts see below $2,000, while Wall Street big shots like Tom Lee believe Ethereum is severely undervalued, with long-term targets even seeing $20,000. This shows that market consensus is far from formed.
Don't forget that the Uniswap fee switch proposal officially takes effect on the 26th; this is a short-term variable for UNI and the entire Ethereum ecosystem that is worth noting.
🧭 Operational advice for family members
No matter which scenario the market follows, we need to have a balance in our minds.
Position is fundamental: In such a high-uncertainty environment, position control is more important than accurately predicting the direction. Don't exceed 50% of your position to leave yourself room.
Keep a close eye on key levels:
Bitcoin: Support at $86,500, strong support at $80,000; resistance at $88,500, and look for $90,000 after breaking through.
Ethereum: Support at $2,850; resistance at $3,050.
Control your hands: Reduce frequent operations, especially during periods of low liquidity, as it is easy to get stopped out. Wait for the direction to become clear before taking action.
Pay attention to post-holiday variables: Focus on whether institutional funds flow back into ETFs after the holiday, as well as macroeconomic data in January, as these will be key to determining the overall direction.
💎 To summarize
The market is now in 'garbage time,' but it is also a good time for layout and observation. My core idea is to remain cautiously optimistic, not to gamble on one-sided trends, to use oscillation for strategies, strictly adhere to stop losses, and survive until next year's market clarity.
Family members, this industry lacks stars but needs longevity. In the bull-bear switch, those who can hold their principal and stay calm will be the ones who laugh to the end. If you find this analysis helpful, feel free to like and share, and we'll meet at the next key point! Follow Muqing for more first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 $ETH
