Family! In the last few days of 2025, an asset yield table blew up in the crypto circle, and everyone who saw it was emo. Others' holdings are doubling, while our mainstream currencies are in a 'free fall'. It's all tears if I say more!
First, here’s this heartbreaking list for you to ponder: silver surged by 128.47%, gold skyrocketed by 66.59%, and even copper increased by 35.45%; the stock market isn't weak either, with the Nasdaq up 19.7%, S&P up 16.2%, and Russell up 13%. Now looking at our crypto circle, Bitcoin fell by 6%, Ethereum dropped by 12%, not to mention those altcoins that followed suit, falling so hard that even their mothers wouldn’t recognize them.
No wonder everyone's investment experience this year has been terrible. In the first half of the year, people were shouting about a 'bull market restart', while in the second half, they were busy 'buying the dip and getting trapped'. Many friends around me have joked: 'If I had known, I would have bought gold; now I could have exchanged it for a gold bracelet. Why suffer in the crypto space?' Who would have thought that the initial surge in gold earlier this year was just an appetizer, and by the end of the year, it would jump directly to $4500? The tides of fortune don't turn this dramatically!
Complaints aside, as someone who has been in the crypto space for eight years, I need to share some valuable insights. The underperformance of crypto assets compared to major asset classes is not coincidental; it is driven by three core shifts in logic. Understanding these will help avoid panic.
First, regulatory clarity is reshaping market expectations. This year, 14 ministries jointly clarified compliance boundaries, completely defining the previously ambiguous areas, especially regarding the characterization of stablecoins and the details of illegal trading, which has deterred a lot of speculative capital. Previously, hot money attracted to the crypto space through 'barbaric growth' is now turning towards gold, an asset with clear hedging properties. Money votes with its feet, and short-term prices are naturally under pressure.
Second, the market structure has changed: retail investors are exiting, and institutions are entering. Many may not have noticed that this year, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $25 billion, with institutional holdings accounting for 24%. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are quietly accumulating. However, the strategies of institutions and retail investors are entirely different. Retail investors chase prices and focus on short-term gains, while institutions take a long-term approach. So while Bitcoin has dropped 6% this year, it has managed to absorb the sell-off of 1.4 million long-term holders without collapsing; this is the best proof that this is not a bear market, but a market changing hands.
Third, the correlation between crypto assets and the stock market has soared. We used to think of crypto as an 'alternative investment', but that is no longer the case. Data shows that this year, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen from 0.29 to 0.5, and with the Nasdaq, it has even reached 0.52. The sharp drop in the crypto market following the pullback of AI concept stocks in October is a prime example. This year, global risk assets have all been affected by monetary policy and economic expectations, and crypto naturally cannot stand alone.
Speaking of which, someone must be asking: 'Can we still play in 2026?' My view is clear: don't panic; this is 'the worst of times, yet also the best period for positioning'. Institutions are still entering the market, and the liquidity turning point is approaching (the Federal Reserve has already stopped quantitative tightening). Once the market completes its turnover, the new price center will gradually rise. Moreover, the policy in the first half of next year is likely to be a honeymoon period, with more explicit support for compliant innovations—these are all opportunities.
To be frank, investing is about making money from cognitive differences. Just because this year has underperformed doesn't mean it will always underperform; the key is not to be swayed by short-term gains. I have organized the core logic and risk points for crypto asset allocation in 2026. Follow me@帝王说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
