Tom Lee recently stated that the price of Bitcoin could still exceed 100,000 USD before the end of 2025. This is a bold call, especially as Bitcoin trades sideways and the momentum appears to be exhausted. At first glance, the market does not seem ready. Large cash flows are weakening, long-term holders are selling, and the price action remains compressed.
BTC has yet another path that could make Lee's forecast possible. It does not rely on new purchases. It is based on positioning.
The problem with Tom Lee's forecast: Big money and conviction holders are still opponents.
The first problem with Tom Lee's Bitcoin price forecast highlighted on CNBC stems from capital flows.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, remains weak. During the period from December 17 to December 23, the price of Bitcoin slightly increased, but CMF showed a downward trend. This is a bearish sign. It indicates that larger players are reducing exposure, even though the price remains high.
CMF readings also plummeted sharply after December 21, dropping over 200% before bouncing back by about 68%. Meanwhile, the rebound looks encouraging, but CMF is still below zero. This means that the influx of capital remains weak, not strong.
The second obstacle for Tom Lee's forecast comes from long-term holders. These are wallets that historically sell late, not early.
Over the past month, the net position change of long-term holders has remained deeply negative. On November 23, long-term holders were selling about 97,800 BTC daily. By December 23, this number had increased to nearly 279,000 BTC sold in a single day. This is an increase of 185%.
This is a massive increase in distribution from conviction holders. When both large capital flows and long-term holders are negative, a sustained rise becomes difficult.
The only way Bitcoin can still reach $100,000?
Despite these adversities, Bitcoin is not devoid of options. Tom Lee's forecast still has one escape route. However, this path relies on unlikely strength.
The market is heavily tilted towards shorts.
Looking at the 30-day liquidation map, the cumulative short liquidation leverage stands at nearly $3.41 billion. The long liquidation leverage is closer to $2.14 billion. This imbalance means that over 60% of leverage is set against price increases.
This matters because when buying pressure is weak, the price can still rise through forced liquidations, as before. In simpler terms, Bitcoin does not need new buyers. It needs shorts to be wrong.
A sharp move upward would force short positions to close, resulting in automatic buying. This buying could then cascade into further liquidations, even if underlying demand remains minimal.
This is the only realistic mechanism that could enable a quick move upward. Furthermore, the largest part of the liquidation cluster, on the short side, lies between $88,390 and $96,070. However, it's time to check if BTC price levels can move within this zone.
Bitcoin price levels that determine whether Tom Lee is right
To initiate a short squeeze, Bitcoin must overcome certain levels. The first zone is around $91,220. A sustained move above this area would trigger the liquidation of lower-leverage short positions. Just that alone would improve short-term dynamics.
The real trigger lies near $97,820. This level has repeatedly constrained the price since mid-November and coincides with the densest cluster of short position liquidations. Additionally, a breakout above this level would threaten most of the $3.41 billion in short leverage.
If this cascade begins, Bitcoin could quickly approach the psychological level of $100,380 without the need for a strong influx of capital or long-term support from holders. Nevertheless, invalidation is always a possibility.
If Bitcoin does not reclaim $91,220 and continues to drift sideways, the weakness of the CMF indicator and the selling of long-term holders will remain dominant. In that case, a short squeeze will never start, and Tom Lee's Bitcoin price forecast will remain out of reach. For now, Bitcoin is stuck between conviction selling and leveraged positioning.
The forecast lives or dies for one reason: whether shorts will be forced to cover.
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