Bitcoin has found itself in a difficult moment of the cycle, and Benjamin Cowen clearly explains this in a holiday recording from the end of December 2025. The analyst describes the current situation as a long consolidation after the peak in October 2025. Importantly, his analysis is based on historical data, cyclicality, and investor behavior.
All of Cowen's material is educational in nature and helps beginners understand the market.
The current phase of the market and comparison to 2019
Benjamin Cowen describes the current situation of Bitcoin as 'Struggle Street'. The market is stuck in a correction and lacks euphoria. Cowen refers to such a peak as an apathetic top. This is different from the dynamic endings of the bull markets of 2017 or 2021.
According to the analyst, the current cycle resembles 2019 more. Back then, there was also no mass panic among new investors. Selling pressure was limited. Mainly, market participants with a longer horizon were selling.
Cowen explains this phenomenon as time-based capitulation. The price of Bitcoin remains the same or lower than a year ago. At the same time, other asset classes are rising. This prompts some investors to exit their positions.
Four-year cycle and the importance of monetary policy
The analyst emphasizes that the four-year cycle is still in effect. Peaks and troughs occur roughly every 4 years. Similar mechanisms also existed before Bitcoin, for example, in the stock market. Sticking to the cycle yields more hits than misses.
Cowen notes, however, that the cycle is not eternal. It may be broken in the future. For now, historical data still confirms it. Therefore, ignoring the cycle increases the risk of erroneous decisions.
An important element of the analysis remains the Fed's policy. The market peak occurred about 2-3 months before the end of QT. The Fed recently concluded QT. The central bank's balance sheet may start to grow again.
Bitcoin, altcoins, and erroneous investor expectations
Cowen also refers to the narrative regarding alt season. In his opinion, the absence of alt season does not mean there was no peak. Bitcoin is not obligated to rescue altcoins. This is a common mistake in investors' thinking.
In 2019, alt season appeared only after about 1.5 years. This happened when the Fed became clearly dovish. Currently, there are no similar signals visible. Social interest in cryptocurrencies is not increasing.
The analyst warns against holding altcoins for years in hope. Many projects from previous cycles never returned to ATH. Market liquidity is spreading across more and more projects. New coins are displacing old ones.
Forecast for 2026 and potential bottom of the bear market
Benjamin Cowen presents a specific time forecast. He assumes that the current top may remain a top for longer. The scenario resembles the situation from 2019. Back then, the market bled for over a year.
“About a year and a half passed after the 2019 peak before the previous ATH was breached. Even ignoring the pandemic drop, it still took 2/3 of a year without breaching the ATH. […] The 200-week moving average is now slightly below $57,000, but will be higher in the summer. […] I expect Bitcoin may drop here sometime in 2026. […] A bear market like 2019 may start at the end of 2025 and last until 2026, followed by a low and building in the next cycle.”
After this statement, Cowen describes a possible market trajectory. First, a decline may occur. Then, a corrective rally is possible. After that, the market may drop again to build a larger rebound.
The analyst points to the 200-week moving average as a potential bottom. Currently, it is slightly below $57,000. By the summer of 2026, this level will be higher. Cowen sees a macro low in the middle or late 2026.
It is worth noting the cyclicality of October. Historically, this month has often brought lows. An example remains the S&P from October 2022. Bitcoin often correlates with the stock market.
In the shorter horizon, Cowen sees a sequence of movements:
price drop
corrective rally
another drop
larger rebound
Such a setup may include a sweep of the local low. Only then may the market enter a larger upward movement. The analyst emphasizes, however, that this is not investment advice.
Cowen warns against treating the market like a casino. He recommends focusing on long-term assets. Bitcoin remains his main choice. Short-term bets on altcoins increase the risk of losses.
In the long term, Cowen remains optimistic. According to him, a new ATH will appear in the future. The biggest parabolic rally will likely happen in the next cycle. The current bear market requires patience and realism.
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