The Monte Carlo model (300 simulations) provides modest forecasts for the price of BTC at the end of 2025. Analyst Timothy Peterson points to a range of $85,000-86,000, which is close to current levels, and even lower. The model does not incorporate a pronounced upward or downward trend movement - the baseline scenario assumes a continuation of sideways dynamics.

With a probability of 68%, the market, according to the model's assessment, will remain in a relatively narrow range around current prices. This means that the scenario of a sharp breakout to the upside is not the dominant one in the probability distribution. Again, at least according to the Monte Carlo model.

Thus, reaching the level of 100,000$ by the end of 2025 looks unlikely. Such a scenario is outside the main probabilistic corridor and requires atypical conditions for the current market structure. Whether such conditions will arise - no one can say in advance, of course.

We remind you that Timothy Peterson is a financial analyst and researcher in the cryptocurrency market (X: nsquaredvalue), known for his fair value models for #BTC and studies of long-term and seasonal price cycles. His analytical works and methodologies are regularly cited in #Bloomberg, #CNBC, and #Forbes.