Before the real end of a bull market, the bears are definitely the most numerous, and it's not naturally formed; it's cultivated layer by layer by the market.
You see, the monthly line has fallen dozens of times, forming a nearly flat line against the ground. Logically, there shouldn't be anyone brave enough to short here, but in reality, the opposite is true, and the bearish sentiment is the most unified.
The reason is simple.
First, trend memory.
People do not trade based on price; they trade based on "what has happened in the past". After falling for one year, two years, three years, people's brains have been trained to think: a rebound is a shorting opportunity. Even if the price no longer falls, as long as it does not skyrocket, the belief in shorting will automatically continue.
Second, intentional feeding by key players.
The most important thing for real big money at the bottom stage is not to pump the market, but to make you "believe it will fall further". Sideways movement, slow declines, false breakouts, and quick pullbacks are all repeatedly reinforcing one conclusion: rising prices are not trustworthy, and shorting is safer.
Third, the sense of security for bears comes from "consensus".
When everyone is saying this is garbage, worthless, without narrative, and without funds, shorting becomes the most comfortable choice. Not because the logic is strong, but because "everyone thinks this way"; people take consensus as a risk hedge.
Fourth, the closer to the end of the bull market, the more serious the risk mismatch.
Prices are already at the floor, with very little room to go down but huge upside potential, yet emotions and position structures are completely the opposite. A large number of short positions are piled up, with leverage, sentiment, and biases all on the same side; it just needs a spark.
So the prince has always said, it's not that "they are bold", but that they have been repeatedly trained by the market to lose their awe. 😂
The real end of the bull market does not start when the bulls are at their craziest, but when the bears are the most certain, confident, and unwilling to admit they are wrong.
When you find that the monthly line looks like a straight line, yet the entire market is still looking for reasons to short, that often means the market is not ending but is about to enter the most unreasonable phase.
You see, the monthly line has fallen dozens of times, forming a nearly flat line against the ground. Logically, there shouldn't be anyone brave enough to short here, but in reality, the opposite is true, and the bearish sentiment is the most unified.
The reason is simple.
First, trend memory.
People do not trade based on price; they trade based on "what has happened in the past". After falling for one year, two years, three years, people's brains have been trained to think: a rebound is a shorting opportunity. Even if the price no longer falls, as long as it does not skyrocket, the belief in shorting will automatically continue.
Second, intentional feeding by key players.
The most important thing for real big money at the bottom stage is not to pump the market, but to make you "believe it will fall further". Sideways movement, slow declines, false breakouts, and quick pullbacks are all repeatedly reinforcing one conclusion: rising prices are not trustworthy, and shorting is safer.
Third, the sense of security for bears comes from "consensus".
When everyone is saying this is garbage, worthless, without narrative, and without funds, shorting becomes the most comfortable choice. Not because the logic is strong, but because "everyone thinks this way"; people take consensus as a risk hedge.
Fourth, the closer to the end of the bull market, the more serious the risk mismatch.
Prices are already at the floor, with very little room to go down but huge upside potential, yet emotions and position structures are completely the opposite. A large number of short positions are piled up, with leverage, sentiment, and biases all on the same side; it just needs a spark.
So the prince has always said, it's not that "they are bold", but that they have been repeatedly trained by the market to lose their awe. 😂
The real end of the bull market does not start when the bulls are at their craziest, but when the bears are the most certain, confident, and unwilling to admit they are wrong.
When you find that the monthly line looks like a straight line, yet the entire market is still looking for reasons to short, that often means the market is not ending but is about to enter the most unreasonable phase.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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