Quick summary: Luke Gromen (founder of FFTT, macro analyst) reportedly sold all his Bitcoin holdings after accumulating below $30K (2022–2023). He is now warning of a potential major correction for BTC in the short term and presents several reasons supporting a significant downturn scenario—followed by a possible monetary policy "pivot" in 2026 that could change the market direction.
Why Gromen is cautious (core argument):
- Liquidity remains tight — The Fed is not ready to make significant easing in the near term.
- High correlation with Nasdaq (technology) — pressure on the technology sector is expected to drag BTC.
- Relative performance against gold weakens — BTC fails to set new records against gold.
- Shift in Tether's strategy — allocation to gold and the AI sector reduces liquidity support for BTC.
- Gromen's technical signals indicate weakness/decrease.
- Whale selling activity increases — indication of distribution by large holders.
- Medium-term threat from quantum computing referred to as an additional risk.
Main scenario (Q2 2026):
- Gromen predicts a correction (period “BC”) in early 2026 that could press BTC to ~$40K.
- After that, he envisions the Fed's “zero year pivot” (Q2 2026) — major monetary easing, yields down, money printing increases — which drives a recovery in risk assets and a sharp rise in gold/S&P according to his scenario.
Gromen's strategy:
- Sell high, buy the dip — he reportedly sold around $95K and hopes to buy back when prices drop (target mentioned: ~$40K).
Long term:
- While cautious in the short term, Gromen remains optimistic about Bitcoin in the framework of long-term fiat devaluation — viewing BTC (along with gold) as a fundamental hedge.
Important note:
- This is a summary of Gromen's views, not investment advice.
- The market is very volatile — DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and apply risk management.
Your opinion? Will BTC really drop to ~$40K in 2026 — or is it just noise before the next halving? Discussion in the comments! 👇
#bitcoin #AnalisisMakro #Crypto2026 #AltcoinRadarID #BinanceSquare

